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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

Business

Adani Ports becomes India’s first Integrated Transport Utility to embrace TNFD framework

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Ahmedabad, Nov 12: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (APSEZ) on Wednesday said it has become India’s first Integrated Transport Utility to embrace the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) framework, setting a new benchmark for nature-positive infrastructure development.

With this, APSEZ joins a select league of global port operators championing biodiversity, reinforcing its commitment to safeguarding marine ecosystems through science-based, transparent environmental disclosures.

As a TNFD adopter, the company said it is committed to implementing TNFD-aligned reporting on nature-related dependencies, impacts, risks and opportunities.

The TNFD is a global, science-based initiative founded by a coalition including the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Global Canopy, to guide companies in identifying, assessing, managing, and disclosing nature-related risks and opportunities.

“We firmly believe responsible business practices drive long-term success. Our adoption of the TNFD framework demonstrates support for nature-related corporate reporting at COP30. We see nature-related issues as a strategic risk management priority. The TNFD framework provides robust support for integrating nature into our decision-making processes and enhancing our contribution to biodiversity conservation,” said Ashwani Gupta, Whole-Time Director and CEO of APSEZ.

This step further strengthens APSEZ’s dedication to nature-positive business practices and positions it as a leader in sustainable maritime logistics.

As part of this commitment, Adani Ports will further enhance disclosure standards to ensure alignment with the TNFD recommendations in its corporate reporting, starting FY26.

The company has already institutionalised climate risk assessment and disclosure practices that align with globally recognised frameworks and continues to set standards in environmental stewardship, having afforested over 4,200 hectares of mangroves and actively conserving an additional 3,000 hectares — making it the largest private sector contributor to mangrove ecosystem restoration in India.

The new initiative is a key component of APSEZ’s broader ESG strategy and reflects a proactive approach in assessing and addressing nature-related dependencies, impacts, risks, and opportunities.

The company operates a comprehensive ecosystem of 15 strategically located ports and terminals across India’s west, south, and east coasts, combined with a diversified marine fleet of 127 vessels.

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TN to spend Rs 25,100 crore on power purchase to meet rising demand

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Chennai, Nov 12: With the state’s daily electricity demand averaging 16,000 megawatts (MW), Tamil Nadu is gearing up for a massive power procurement exercise worth over Rs 25,100 crore over the next five years to ensure uninterrupted supply during both regular and peak hours.

According to the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation (TANGEDCO), the state currently generates an average of 3,000 MW from thermal plants, 1,000 MW from hydropower stations, and around 150 MW from gas-based plants.

The remaining demand is met through central generating stations and private power companies. To address the increasing consumption, particularly during high-demand periods, the state has floated tenders to procure 500 MW of electricity every day during peak hours for the next three years. In addition, a five-year tender has been issued to purchase 1,000 MW of power round the clock from private producers.

The peak hours, between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m. and again from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m., are the most expensive period for electricity procurement. Even if the maximum tariff is capped at Rs 8 per unit, the daily expenditure for 500 MW would amount to nearly Rs 3.2 crore, translating to about Rs 3,500 crore over three years.

Meanwhile, the 24-hour supply agreement for 1,000 MW over five years is projected to cost approximately Rs 21,600 crore. Together, the total outlay for both arrangements will reach Rs 25,100 crore.

Officials noted that the decision was made to prevent outages during the upcoming northeast monsoon season and to maintain grid stability as the state’s demand continues to rise steadily.

The government is also exploring renewable energy integration, with a focus on solar and wind sources, to gradually reduce dependence on costly thermal and imported power.

The new procurement strategy is expected to provide crucial support to Tamil Nadu’s industries and domestic consumers alike, ensuring a stable and reliable power supply despite fluctuating generation levels from hydel and renewable sources.

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Sensex, Nifty open in green over US-India trade talks, Bihar exit polls

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Mumbai, Nov 12: The Indian benchmark indices opened in green zone on Wednesday, amid reports of an imminent India-US trade deal and exit polls in Bihar predicting decisive majority for NDA.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex advanced 496 points, or 0.59 per cent at 84,367 and Nifty inched up 147 points, or 0.58 per cent to 25,842.

The broadcap indices performed in line with the benchmarks, with the Nifty Midcap 100 up 0.55 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 adding 0.61 per cent.

Max Healthcare and Tech Mahindra were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Maruti Suzuki and Trent.

All sectoral indices were trading in green except Nifty FMCG. mixed with most of them trading with mild negative bias. Nifty IT and Nifty Oil and Gas were the standout gainers — up 1.26 per cent and 0.95 per cent.

“With reports of an imminent India-US trade deal and exit polls showing the NDA winning Bihar, sentiments have improved. This will strengthen bulls but not enough to give markets a decisive breakout and sustained rally,” said market watchers.

Based on current trends, FIIs may sell again at higher levels till the AI trade continues, they added.

From the fundamental perspective, there is room for optimism since GDP growth is robust and earnings growth for FY27 appears bright. Financials, consumption and defence stocks have the potential to lead the next leg of the rally.

Most of the Asia-Pacific markets rose in early trading sessions after Wall Street traded mixed on hopes that the US government shutdown could be nearing an end, even as AI stocks struggled.

The US markets ended mixed overnight, as Nasdaq slipped 0.3 per cent, the S&P 500 added 0.18 per cent, and the Dow inched up 1.2 per cent.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index dipped 0.23 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 1 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.21 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.56 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 0.84 per cent.

On Monday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 803 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 2,188 crore.

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