Business
Inflation to remain elevated with a return to sub-6% not likely before Feb 2023: Kotak report
The inflation prints in the near term is expected to remain higher around 7 per cent, with a gradual move likely towards MPCs upper threshold of 6 per cent by end-FY2023.
“We expect inflation to remain elevated with a return to the sub-6 per cent level not likely before February 2023. We maintain our FY2023E average CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent. We also maintain our call for additional 35-60 bps of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” Kotak Economic Research report said.
The report also said that some early signs relief in inflation are visible in the near term due to easing commodity and crude oil prices, normal monsoons and improving reservoir levels, and easing global supply-chain pressures.
Kotak Research expect the CPI inflation trajectory to be lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimates by 70 basis points in first half of calendar year 2023, and maintain our FY2023E CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent.
To tame inflation and stabilise rupee, the central bank is likely to hike repo rate in the near term. However, the pace of rate hike will be lower due to global disinflationary pressures and pass-through impact of monetary tightening to demand side pressures.
“Accordingly, we maintain our call for further 35-60 basis points of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” the report added.
In July, CPI inflation has moderated to 6.71 per cent, as against 7.01 per cent in June due to moderation in food inflation. The moderation in food prices was led by decline in prices of meat and fish, and oils and fats.
Whereas, June IIP growth moderated to 12.3 per cent, while growing sequentially by 0.1 per cent. On a sectoral basis, electricity production grew by 16.4 per cent, manufacturing by 12.5 per cent, and mining by 7.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, July core inflation (CPI excluding food, fuel, pan and tobacco) remained broadly sticky at 6.25 per cent, with a sequential pickup of 0.7 per cent. This was led mainly by rising costs of education, and clothing and footwear.
Business
Crude oil prices fall up to 2 pc, head for steep weekly losses

New Delhi, June 26: Global crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday and were on track to post steep weekly losses as easing supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz outweighed fresh geopolitical tensions following an attack on a cargo vessel near Oman.
International oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell $1.51 or 2 per cent, to $73.75 a barrel in early trade.
Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.50 or about 2 per cent to $70.42 a barrel.
Both benchmark contracts had gained more than 2 per cent in the previous session after a cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, prompting the United Nations’ shipping agency to suspend its voluntary evacuation programme.
According to media reports, two US officials said Iran had fired on the cargo vessel as it attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities, however, said the security of ships sailing outside designated Hormuz routes could not be guaranteed.
Despite the latest security concerns, Brent and WTI were both headed for weekly losses of nearly 7 per cent as fears of supply disruptions eased following an improvement in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude shipments through the strategic waterway rose this week to their highest level since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February, after a ceasefire helped reopen the route. However, overall vessel traffic remained well below the pre-conflict average of around 125 ships per day.
The Indian basket of crude oil — a weighted average of Brent Dated, Oman and Dubai crude grades imported by domestic refiners — averaged $86.31 per barrel in June so far, after surging during the West Asia conflict. The basket had averaged $106.23 per barrel in May and $114.48 per barrel in April.
Global benchmark Brent crude, which had touched around $120 per barrel at the peak of the conflict, is now hovering near $74 per barrel.
Business
Stock markets remain closed on account of Muharram

Mumbai, June 26: Indian stock exchanges — the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE — remained closed on Friday on account of Muharram, with trading suspended across all equity market segments, including equity derivatives, currency derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLB).
Meanwhile, in the commodity segment, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained closed during the morning session from 9 am to 5 pm.
Trading on the commodity exchange will resume in the evening session from 5 pm.
In addition, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) — which primarily deals in agricultural commodities — remained closed for the entire day.
Following Friday’s Muharram holiday, the stock market will remain open for nearly three months before the next scheduled holiday on September 14 for Ganesh Chaturthi.
Thereafter, the bourses will remain closed on October 2 (Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti), October 20 (Dussehra), November 10 (Diwali-Balipratipada), November 24 (Prakash Gurpurb Sri Guru Nanak Dev) and December 25 (Christmas).
In the last session, the equity benchmarks ended their two-session winning streak on a positive note despite paring most of their intraday gains due to profit booking in IT and metal stocks.
Sensex settled over 100 points or 0.14 per cent higher at 77,100.47 after touching an intraday high of 77,803.18.
Similarly, Nifty ended higher, with an increase of 34.35 points or 0.14 per cent at 24,056.
Among Nifty constituents, Hindalco Industries, Power Grid, Bharti Airtel, ONGC, Infosys, NTPC, BEL, HCL Tech, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, Trent, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel and Titan were top losers.
Moreover, the broader markets underperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices declining 0.5 per cent each.
As the holiday falls on a Friday, market participants will enjoy a three-day weekend, with trading set to resume on Monday, June 29.
Business
Indian markets open higher as crude oil prices hover near $70 mark

Mumbai, June 25: Indian stock markets opened higher on Thursday as crude oil prices eased towards the $70-per-barrel mark, with tankers resuming their exit from the Strait of Hormuz following an initial peace deal between the US and Iran.
Sensex started the session up 400 points or 0.52 per cent at 77,391.07, while Nifty opened at 24,125.85, gaining over 100 points or 0.43 per cent.
Most sectoral indices traded in positive territory, led by Nifty Realty and Nifty Auto, gained up to 1 per cent.
Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty IT, Nifty Pharma, Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private Bank indices also advanced.
However, Nifty Metal was the lone major sectoral loser, declining 0.56 per cent.
From the Nifty pack, Hindalco Industries, Eternal, Bharat Electronics, Power Grid Corporation, ONGC, Infosys, Titan, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, ITC, Asian Paints and Coal India were among the top losers in early trade.
Category-wise, Nifty Microcap 250 gained 0.87 per cent, Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.63 per cent, Nifty Midcap 50 advanced 0.61 per cent, and Nifty Smallcap 500 climbed 0.59 per cent.
Meanwhile, India VIX — the market’s fear gauge — slipped nearly 3 per cent to 13, indicating easing volatility.
According to analysts, the technical undertone remains positive as long as the Nifty sustains above the 24,000 mark. Immediate support is placed at 23,900, followed by the 23,790-23,750 zone if profit-booking intensifies.
“On the upside, the 24,090-24,150 zone remains the key resistance area, and a decisive breakout above this supply zone could trigger fresh short-covering, paving the way for a move towards 24,300,” they said.
Analysts further noted that supportive global cues and lower crude oil prices favour further gains, although traders should remain watchful of expiry-related volatility and evolving global monetary policy expectations.
Meanwhile, international benchmark Brent crude declined about 2 per cent to around $72 a barrel. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.83 per cent to trade below the $70-per-barrel mark.
-
Crime4 years agoClass 10 student jumps to death in Jaipur
-
Maharashtra2 years agoMumbai Local Train Update: Central Railway’s New Timetable Comes Into Effect; Check Full List Of Revised Timings & Stations
-
Maharashtra2 years agoMumbai To Go Toll-Free Tonight! Maharashtra Govt Announces Complete Toll Waiver For Light Motor Vehicles At All 5 Entry Points Of City
-
Maharashtra2 years agoFalse photo of Imtiaz Jaleel’s rally, exposing the fooling conspiracy
-
National News2 years agoMinistry of Railways rolls out Special Drive 4.0 with focus on digitisation, cleanliness, inclusiveness and grievance redressal
-
Maharashtra2 years agoMaharashtra Elections 2024: Mumbai Metro & BEST Services Extended Till Midnight On Voting Day
-
National News2 years agoJ&K: 4 Jawans Killed, 28 Injured After Bus Carrying BSF Personnel For Poll Duty Falls Into Gorge In Budgam; Terrifying Visuals Surface
-
Crime2 years agoBaba Siddique Murder: Mumbai Police Unable To Get Lawrence Bishnoi Custody Due To Home Ministry Order, Says Report
