Business
RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations
Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.
Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.
The three-day meeting started on Monday.
In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.
In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.
India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.
Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.
Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities
MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.
The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.
Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.
Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.
Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services
India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.
Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.
It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.
Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo
The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.
Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.
Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking
We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.
Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group
The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.
Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group
There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.
A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.
Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities
The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.
Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.
Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital
We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.
And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.
Business
IndusInd Bank shares tumble over 6 pc after Q1 results

New Delhi, July 23: Shares of private sector banking stock IndusInd Bank fell more than 6 per cent in early trade on Thursday after the bank posted its June quarter earnings.
The banking stock plunged as much as 6.29 per cent to 1002.50, hitting an intraday low of Rs 1,002.50 on the BSE at around 11:50 am.
At the last count, the stock was trading at Rs 1,006.75, a decrease of 5.90 per cent.
The selling pressure in the banking stock came after the private lender reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,037.05 crore for the first quarter of FY27 on Wednesday, compared with Rs 604.07 crore in the corresponding period last year.
The earnings were supported by a 21 per cent decline in provisions and contingencies, which stood at Rs 1,384 crore.
The lender’s net interest income (NII) rose 1 per cent year-on-year to Rs 4,685 crore, while its gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio improved to 3.25 per cent. Gross slippages also declined to Rs 1,660 crore from Rs 2,567 crore a year ago.
Earlier in June, the bank witnessed selling pressure after reports claimed a complaint seeking an investigation into alleged insider trading, governance lapses, and audit shortcomings at the bank.
The selling pressure in shares followed reports suggesting that a whistleblower had approached multiple authorities — including the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO), the National Financial Reporting Authority (NFRA) and other agencies.
According to them, the complaint alleged insider trading, manipulation of financial records, evergreening of microfinance loans, suppression of audit findings and attempts by senior management and board members to conceal irregularities.
Additionally, the stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,077.80 and a 52-week low of Rs 710.85 on Thursday on the BSE.
Business
Indian Railways records sharp decline in accidents, safety budget hiked 3-fold

New Delhi, July 22: There has been a sharp decline in train accidents in the country over the last 12 years as a result of the high priority being accorded to safety on Indian Railways.
The annual budgetary allocation for safety has shot up more than three-fold from Rs 39,200 crore in 2013-14 to Rs 1,20,389 crore in 2026-27, the Centre told the Parliament on Wednesday.
The number of “consequential accidents” came down from 135 in 2014-15 to 16 in 2025-26 and only two accidents have been reported in 2026-27 till June this year, Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said in a written reply to a query in the Lok Sabha.
“The causes of the accidents that took place over Indian Railways broadly include track defects, locomotive or coach defects, equipment failures, human errors, etc. Rail safety has now been strengthened through modern technology, infrastructure and enhanced maintenance. As many as 6,671 stations have been equipped with electronic interlocking and complete track circuiting while 10,395 level crossing gates have also been brought under the interlocking system to minimise human errors,” Union Minister Vaishnaw noted.
Complete track circuiting of these railway stations has been undertaken to enhance safety by verification of track occupancy by electrical means.
Detailed instructions on issues related with safety of signalling, for example, mandatory correspondence check, alteration work protocol, preparation of completion drawing, etc. have been issued.
The Indian Railways has added 36,429 track kilometres during 2014–26, which is more than 2.5 times higher than 2004–14 which has enhanced track safety.
Modernisation of rolling stock and maintenance practices strengthens safety, with LHB coach production rising more than 21 times to 49,366 during 2014–26 and weld failures reduced by 93 per cent.
The indigenously developed Kavach 4.0 safety system has been successfully commissioned on 2,490 route kilometres covering the high-density Delhi–Mumbai and Delhi–Howrah routes.
Kavach implementation work is also under progress on 21,937 route kilometres, with installation being taken up on 7,435 locomotives and 1,200 EMU/MEMU trains.
The amount utilised for Kavach works so far up to June 2026 is Rs 3874.9 crore.
The allocation of funds during the year 2026-27 is Rs 2066.24 crore.
Requisite funds are made available as per the progress of works.
In reply to another query, Union Minister Vaishnaw said that at present, recruitment against 1,61,889 vacancies of non-gazetted personnel has been taken up on Indian Railways as per annual calendar 2024, 2025 and 2026.
During January to December 2024, ten Centralised Employment Notifications for 92,116 vacancies were notified for filling up of posts of Assistant Loco Pilots, technicians, Sub-Inspectors, Constables in Railway Protection Force (RPF), Junior Engineers, Depot Material Superintendent, Chemical and Metallurgical Assistant, Paramedical Categories, Non-Technical Popular Categories (Graduate), Non-Technical Popular Categories (Under-Graduate), Ministerial and Isolated Categories and Level-1 categories such as Assistants, Track Maintainers and Pointsman.
First stage/Single stage Computer Based Tests for 92,116 posts have been completed.
“During 2026-2027 (up to June 30, 2026) panels for more than 3,300 candidates for various posts, including the posts of Technicians, Junior Engineers, Paramedical Categories, Ministerial and Isolated categories and Assistant Loco Pilots have been finalised. Majority of them are in safety categories,” Union Minister added.
Business
Sensex, Nifty post early losses over rising crude prices, new US tariff plan

Mumbai, July 22: The Indian equity markets posted notable losses early on Wednesday, weighed down by the US-Iran conflict and rising Brent crude prices.
Sensex lost 371 points, or 0.48 per cent, to reach 77,097 in morning trade while Nifty shed 106 points, or 0.44 per cent, to reach 24,081.
Main broad-cap indices performed in line with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 lost 0.16 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 dipped 0.33 per cent.
Sectoral indices on NSE traded mostly in red, led by losses of Nifty pharma and mid small healthcare, down 0.99 per cent and 0.93 per cent, respectively, amid the fresh US phased tariff plan on generic drugs. Nifty PSU bank also logged strong losses, down 0.86 per cent.
Auto was the major gainer, up 0.79 per cent. FMCG, Metal and consumer gainers were the only other gainers, adding 0.09 to 0.15 per cent.
“The early automobile Q1 numbers are impressive, exports and management commentary reflect optimism. The price correction in a few leading banks is apparently over. Rupee is likely to remain stable buoyed by positive news on the dollar flows from FCNR deposits which has crossed $20 billion now. The inflows are likely to gather momentum, going forward,” an analyst said.
Weakening of the chip trade and sharp correction in markets like South Korea during the last one month are making India relatively stable and attractive from the valuation perspective, he added
In the previous session, the Nifty 50 extended its corrective phase for the second consecutive day, declining 0.2 per cent and closing below the 24,200 mark. The index largely traded within the previous session’s range, reflecting indecisiveness among market participants, analysts noted.
The immediate support for Nifty is placed at 24,100, followed by 24,000 level. On the upside, the 24,300–24,400 zone remains a key hurdle for the bulls, market participants said.
Meanwhile, Asian markets traded higher in early deals, tracking technology-led gains on Wall Street as investors awaited earnings from major US technology companies.
In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index gained 0.35 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.36 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1.93 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index eased 0.69 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 4.31 per cent.
The US markets ended in green overnight as Nasdaq gained 1.29 per cent. The S&P 500 advanced 0.89 per cent, and the Dow Jones added 0.74 per cent.
On July 21, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought equities worth Rs 1,650 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 656 crore.
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