Business
RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations
Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.
Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.
The three-day meeting started on Monday.
In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.
In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.
India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.
Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.
Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities
MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.
The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.
Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.
Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.
Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services
India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.
Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.
It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.
Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo
The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.
Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.
Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking
We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.
Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group
The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.
Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group
There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.
A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.
Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities
The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.
Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.
Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital
We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.
And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.
Business
Sensex, Nifty trade muted in early deals amid mixed global cues

Mumbai, May 27: Domestic equity markets traded on a muted note in early deals on Wednesday amid mixed global cues and a decline in crude oil prices.
Sensex was trading at 76,050, up 40 points or 0.05 per cent in the morning session, while Nifty rose 20 points or 0.08 per cent to 23,932. Earlier, the benchmark indices opened at 75,939.86 and 23,880.35, respectively.
Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal emerged as the top gainer, climbing 1.59 per cent, followed by Nifty Cement, which advanced 0.83 per cent. Nifty Media, Realty and Consumer Durables also traded higher, rising up to 0.67 per cent.
On the other hand, Nifty Oil & Gas was the top loser, falling 0.66 per cent. While private banks, financial services and IT indices also traded in the red, declining up to 0.33 per cent.
Among Nifty stocks, selling pressure was visible in select heavyweight counters, with Coal India dropping over 4 per cent and ONGC slipping nearly 3 per cent. HDFC Bank, Infosys and Wipro also remained under pressure.
Meanwhile, the volatility index India VIX gained 0.68 per cent to trade around 16.
According to analysts, the near-term market tone remains cautious but stable, as recent profit booking at higher levels indicates some consolidation after the sharp recovery phase.
“Despite intermittent weakness, controlled volatility and balanced market breadth suggest that broader sentiment has not deteriorated significantly,” they added.
Meanwhile, Iran on Tuesday accused the United States of violating the ceasefire by carrying out strikes near the disputed Strait of Hormuz, while Washington maintained that the attacks were defensive in nature.
In the commodity market, crude oil prices declined, with international benchmark Brent crude falling 1.73 per cent to $97.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped over 2 per cent to $91.87 per barrel.
In Asia, markets traded mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined nearly 1 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI rose up to almost 5 per cent.
Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.61 per cent and the Nasdaq closing 1.19 per cent higher.
Business
Indian equity markets trade flat after fresh US strikes in Iran

Mumbai, May 26: Indian equity markets traded flat in morning trade on Tuesday after fresh US strikes in southern Iran targeting boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites.
In early trade, Sensex was at 76,339.29, down 150 points or 0.20 per cent, while Nifty slipped 45 points or 0.19 per cent to 23,986.40. Earlier in the day, the benchmark indices opened at 76,224.14 and 24,004.10, respectively.
Among sectoral indices, IT, chemicals, media, PSU banks and metal stocks traded in positive territory.
Nifty IT rose 0.61 per cent, while Nifty Chemicals gained 0.58 per cent and Nifty Media advanced 0.54 per cent.
On the downside, consumer durables, healthcare, cement and realty indices were under pressure. Nifty Consumer Durables emerged as the top sectoral loser, falling 0.57 per cent, while Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Cement and Nifty Realty declined up to 0.3 per cent.
From the Nifty basket, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) declined over 1 per cent, emerging as one of the top laggards on the benchmark indices. Other notable losers included SBI Life Insurance Company, Max Healthcare Institute, Titan Company, Bharti Airtel, Eternal Ltd and Trent, which fell up to 1 per cent.
In the broader market, small-cap and mid-cap indices outperformed. Nifty Smallcap 100 climbed 0.59 per cent, while Nifty Midcap 150 gained 0.13 per cent.
Meanwhile, the volatility tracker India VIX slipped 1.43 per cent.
Market experts said that despite ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the West Asia conflict, there are no indications of an immediate resolution.
They noted that the recent US “self-defence strikes” in southern Iran have temporarily dampened sentiment, although markets are not viewing the development as the beginning of another phase of military escalation.
According to experts, investor risk appetite remains strong, with markets rallying whenever there are signs of easing tensions and a decline in crude oil prices.
“The sharp rally in the previous session reflected optimism about the resilience of the domestic economy,” they added.
However, experts believe that a resolution of the conflict and a further decline in crude oil prices could help ease macroeconomic pressures facing the economy.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose, with international benchmark Brent crude gaining 1.17 per cent to $98.39 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed more than 3 per cent to $93.90 per barrel.
Business
CNG Prices Hiked Again By ₹2: Have Rates Increased In Mumbai Too? Find Out Here

Mumbai: CNG consumers have received temporary relief as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) prices in the city have not been increased despite another fuel hike announced in Delhi and the NCR on Tuesday.
While Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) raised CNG prices in Delhi by Rs 2 per kg, taking rates to Rs 83.09 per kg from May 26, Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) has kept CNG prices unchanged across Mumbai and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).
This means CNG in Mumbai continues to remain priced at Rs 84 per kg, following the earlier hike implemented by MGL earlier this month. The latest Delhi revision marks the fourth CNG price increase in less than two weeks amid rising global energy prices and pressure on domestic fuel retailers.
Although there has been no fresh hike in Mumbai today, auto-rickshaw unions in the city have already renewed their demand for a fare revision after the previous Rs 2 per kg increase announced by MGL on May 14.
Mumbai’s auto unions have argued that rising fuel costs and inflation have increased operating expenses for drivers. Union representatives recently met transport department officials and submitted revised fare calculations based on recommendations of the B Khatua Committee.
At present, the minimum auto-rickshaw fare in Mumbai stands at Rs 26, while passengers are charged Rs 17.14 per kilometre after the base fare. According to union calculations, the per-kilometre fare should now increase to Rs 18.17.
“The expenses on fuel have increased substantially for auto-rickshaw drivers. Inflation and higher Consumer Price Index levels have also affected daily running costs,” Mumbai Rickshawmen’s Union General Secretary Thampi Kurien had said while demanding a fare hike.
The latest developments come at a time when petrol and diesel prices have witnessed repeated hikes across the country over the past two weeks, increasing concerns over transportation costs and inflationary pressure in Mumbai and other metro cities.
Despite today’s relief for Mumbai commuters, transport operators and auto unions are closely monitoring fuel pricing trends amid fears that further increases in global crude oil and gas prices could eventually impact CNG rates in the city as well.
-
Crime4 years agoClass 10 student jumps to death in Jaipur
-
Maharashtra2 years agoMumbai Local Train Update: Central Railway’s New Timetable Comes Into Effect; Check Full List Of Revised Timings & Stations
-
Maharashtra2 years agoMumbai To Go Toll-Free Tonight! Maharashtra Govt Announces Complete Toll Waiver For Light Motor Vehicles At All 5 Entry Points Of City
-
Maharashtra2 years agoFalse photo of Imtiaz Jaleel’s rally, exposing the fooling conspiracy
-
National News2 years agoMinistry of Railways rolls out Special Drive 4.0 with focus on digitisation, cleanliness, inclusiveness and grievance redressal
-
Maharashtra2 years agoMaharashtra Elections 2024: Mumbai Metro & BEST Services Extended Till Midnight On Voting Day
-
National News2 years agoJ&K: 4 Jawans Killed, 28 Injured After Bus Carrying BSF Personnel For Poll Duty Falls Into Gorge In Budgam; Terrifying Visuals Surface
-
Crime2 years agoBaba Siddique Murder: Mumbai Police Unable To Get Lawrence Bishnoi Custody Due To Home Ministry Order, Says Report
