Business
RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations
Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.
Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.
The three-day meeting started on Monday.
In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.
In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.
India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.
Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.
Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities
MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.
The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.
Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.
Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.
Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services
India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.
Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.
It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.
Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo
The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.
Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.
Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking
We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.
Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group
The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.
Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group
There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.
A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.
Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities
The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.
Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.
Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital
We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.
And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.
Business
Pune poised to become India GCC capital, says Maha CM

Pune, Sep 4: Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Friday said Pune is rapidly emerging as the country’s leading hub for Global Capability Centres (GCCs), with more than 130 centres currently operational and the number expected to cross 800 in the coming years.
He reaffirmed the state government’s commitment to positioning Pune as the preferred destination for GCC investments in India. The Chief Minister was speaking at the inauguration of Magnum Ice Cream Company’s Global Business Solutions Centre.
Highlighting that Maharashtra has emerged as the preferred investment hub for Global Capability Centers in India, CM Fadnavis noted that the enthusiastic response from multinational corporations establishing global business centers in Pune is a testament to the city’s business-friendly environment and skilled talent pool.
The Chief Minister explained that Magnum’s Pune centre will generate more than 1,000 direct job opportunities alongside boosting indirect employment. To optimise the company’s global business operations, the facility will integrate artificial intelligence, automated technologies, logistics, and other advanced solutions to streamline manufacturing, distribution, and customer experience operations.
“When the government and the industry collaborate, it creates a robust ecosystem that accelerates investment, job creation, and overall economic growth. The state government remains committed to providing all necessary support and a conducive climate for businesses investing in Maharashtra,” he stated.
He further added that this Global Business Solutions Centre in Pune, operating alongside the regional headquarters in Mumbai, will chart a new direction for Magnum’s expansion in Maharashtra. Active measures are being taken to strengthen physical infrastructure across Pune’s industrial sectors — with a special focus on resolving IT infrastructure challenges in Hinjawadi — to make the region an even more attractive destination for GCCs.
Industry department principal secretary Dr P. Anbalagan noted that Global Capability Centres are not merely office spaces, but crucial engines driving the nation’s economic momentum. India has established itself as a global leader in the GCC space, with Maharashtra and Pune playing a pivotal role in this expansion. In Pune alone, demand for commercial office space by GCCs reached approximately 6 million square feet over the past 15 months, while 130 new or expanded GCC units were set up across the state over the last 18 months.
He added that the state government has set a target of hosting 400 GCC companies and over 700 units in the coming period. Currently, Pune hosts operations from companies representing over 30 countries across 20 sectors, employing nearly 10,000 professionals.
Investment and Policy Advisor to the CM, Kaustubh Dhavse, remarked that the relationship between Magnum Ice Cream Company and the Government of Maharashtra is built on trust, reliability, and mutual respect. He added that the Indian-origin executive leadership steering the company globally brings inspiring experience.
In his opening address, Abhijit Bhattacharya, CFO of Magnum Ice Cream Company, credited the state government’s rapid decision-making process for making the global business centre a reality in a short time frame.
He cited Maharashtra’s robust industrial ecosystem, superior connectivity, and proactive administration as key factors in selecting Pune.
Bhattacharya commended CM Fadnavis’s vision to make Maharashtra a premier hub for global business centres and expressed the company’s intent to collaborate with the state on sustainable dairy systems, while also bringing the global ice cream brand ‘Ben & Jerry’s’ to India.
Business
Adani Ports to start dedicated empty container yard operations at Mundra to boost efficiency

Ahmedabad, Sep 4: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) on Friday said it is launching a dedicated Empty Container Yard (ECY) with integrated warehousing at Mundra, offering end-to-end services across the empty container lifecycle, including storage, maintenance, inspection, and seamless movement to exporters and CFSs (container freight stations).
As part of its ‘Ambition 2031’ roadmap, APSEZ is making significant investments to expand capacity across its network, with Mundra at the forefront of this growth.
India’s largest integrated transport operator plans to add more than 6 million TEUs of container handling capacity over the next five years, said the Adani Group company.
“The dedicated Empty Container Yard at Mundra, to be operated by APSEZ and/or partners (including CFS and shipping lines), will enhance efficiency across the container ecosystem by enabling faster turnaround times, reducing unnecessary container movements, and optimising logistics costs,” said Ashwani Gupta, Whole-time Director and Chief Executive Officer, APSEZ.
Strengthening trade-enabling infrastructure remains central to APSEZ’s commitment towards supporting India’s growth and the vision of Viksit Bharat, Gupta added.
Adani Ports commands a 45.5 per cent share of India’s container market as of FY26. Within this, Mundra Port alone handles nearly 35 per cent of the country’s container trade, making it India’s largest container-handling port.
The volume of empty containers handled at Mundra is estimated at around 1.6 million TEUs annually, underscoring its critical role in supporting India’s import-export supply chains, said the company.
Moreover, the initiative aligns with the government’s focus on developing efficient, technology-enabled logistics systems and improving ease of doing business.
Adani Ports operates a comprehensive ecosystem of 16 strategically located ports and terminals with a diversified marine fleet of 136 vessels and integrated logistics capabilities.
With a current cargo handling capacity of 653 million tonnes per annum, APSEZ commands approximately 27 per cent of India’s total port volumes, targeting 1 billion tonnes throughput by 2030.
Business
Sensex, Nifty post notable gains in early trade led by IT stocks

Mumbai, Sep 4: The Indian equity markets posted notable gains early on Friday driven by gains in IT stocks and positive data on the domestic economy.
Sensex added 515 points, or 0.68 per cent, in early trade to reach 76,668 and Nifty gained 51 points, or 0.22 per cent to reach 23,925.
Main broad-cap indices performed in line with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 added 0.03 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.49 per cent.
Sectoral indices on NSE traded mixed with Nifty consumer durables posting the highest losses, down 0.50 per cent. Nifty IT was the top gainer, up 0.65 per cent, followed by realty, up 0.50 per cent.
“Rising bond yields are negative for equity markets. The US 10-year yield continues to hover around 4.8 percent. In Japan the 10-year yield is at a 30-year high of 3 per cent. In the UK, the 30-year yield is at 6 per cent. In India, too, the 10-year yield is close to 7 per cent,” an analyst said.
“However, these negative factors are being countered by the positive news about the Indian economy. Particularly impressive are the ongoing high frequency data regarding GST collections, automobile sales and credit growth,” the market expert added.
Brent crude remains elevated near $96–97, keeping geopolitical risks around the US–Iran conflict a key factor for market sentiment.
“Global sentiment has improved as Wall Street closed higher and Asian markets are largely positive, while US Treasury yields have eased,” an analyst said.
The immediate support for Nifty is placed at 23,800–23,850 zone, while resistance is seen at 24,050–24,100.
Immediate support is placed at 57,000–57,200 for Bank Nifty, while resistance is seen at 57,800–58,000, a market participant said.
In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index gained 0.35 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.27 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 1.14 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 2.09 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.31 per cent.
The US markets ended in green overnight as Nasdaq gained 1.4 per cent. The S&P 500 added 1.06 per cent, and the Dow Jones advanced 1.18 per cent.
On September 3, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 2,346 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 4,977 crore.
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