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RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations

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Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.

Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.

The three-day meeting started on Monday.

In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.

In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.

India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.

Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.

Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities

MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.

The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.

Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.

Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.

Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services

India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.

Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.

It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.

Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo

The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.

Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.

Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking

We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.

Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group

The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.

Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group

There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.

A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.

Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities

The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.

Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.

Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital

We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.

And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.

Business

Microsoft services, including Outlook and Teams, face outage globally including India

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Microsoft faced severe outage across its platforms — 365, Outlook and Teams — as thousands of users across the globe, including India, on Friday morning were unable to access its services.

There were more than 1 lakh incidents of people reporting issues with Outlook at outage-tracking website downdetector.com.

The disruption also hit connectors used by OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s AI services.

“We’re aggressively pursuing all pathways to reduce impact,” Microsoft said in a statement, adding that it was providing updates in its admin center.

In its latest update, Microsoft attributed this incident to “a large number of servers being unexpectedly unavailable,” for reasons it did not explain.

Microsoft said it continues to investigate the outage.

In a post on X for users who can’t access the admin center, Microsoft said some of its infrastructure was experiencing “elevated load,” and that it was “redistributing connection traffic across our broader worldwide infrastructure to help balance the load.”

Its team has paused all deployments, is moving additional traffic off the affected infrastructure, and is restarting affected servers to return them to service, the tech company said.

The company says its Defender XDR security system is also affected by the outage.

Earlier in the day, Microsoft said it had fixed a Teams disruption affecting users in North America and that the impact had been fully resolved.

The company later said the issue may also affect Microsoft 365 service connectivity for users in other regions.

Microsoft faced a major outage in September, when a days-long outage hit Microsoft 365, its online productivity suite that includes Outlook.

The company had blamed a “core authentication configuration” issue that prevented users from accessing the service.

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Sensex, Nifty trade lower in early deals amid weak global cues

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Domestic equity benchmarks opened lower on Friday and extended losses in early trade, tracking weak global cues and profit-booking after the sharp November rally.

Sensex declined about 450 points or 0.55 per cent to 81,457.74 in early deals, while Nifty fell 182 points or 0.71 per cent to 25,117.

Earlier, the Sensex opened at 81,833.78, down 77.23 points or 0.09 per cent, while the 50-scrip basket started the session at 25,209.85, down 89.50 points or 0.35 per cent.

Sectoral indices were also largely in the red zone, in which Nifty Realty led the fall, down over 1 per cent.

Meanwhile, Nifty Chemicals, Nifty Auto and Nifty Cement declined by up to 1 per cent. Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty Private Bank, Nifty Consumer Durables and Nifty PSU Bank also traded lower.

On the other hand, healthcare and pharmaceuticals shares were trading higher. Nifty Pharma, Nifty Healthcare and Nifty 500 Healthcare surged up to 0.39 per cent.

However, the selling came after Nifty’s spectacular 9.7 per cent rally so far in November.

According to the market experts, the most important trigger for the swift rally was the aggressive comeback of the FIIs assisted by the weakening of the AI trade and improving earnings growth in India.

“Indications are that the FII buying will continue taking the monthly inflows easily to above Rs 1 lakh crore, which will be a record high. With this kind of aggressive FII buying, the bears will be on the back foot,” the market experts said.

They further noted that there are headwinds emerging that can spoil the party. Rising inflation in the US and India means a rising interest rate scenario which can turn out to be adverse for equity markets.

“In the US two rate hikes are likely in December and January. With the October CPI inflation in India rising to 6.09 per cent, the RBI will have to raise rates at least by 25 bp each in December and February. These concerns along with the ongoing DII profit booking can apply brakes on the rally, in the near term,” they added.

Additionally, Brent crude jumped to $95 per barrel amid fresh geopolitical concerns involving Saudi energy infrastructure and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

In Asia, markets showed a mixed trend. Japan’s Nikkei traded about 1 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s KOSPI were up to 1 per cent down.

Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended lower on Thursday with the S&P 500 down 0.35 per cent and the Nasdaq down 0.39 per cent.

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Air India passenger held over hoax hijack threat on Kolkata-Mumbai flight

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A passenger was apprehended and handed over to the airport police after allegedly being linked to a hoax hijack threat targeting an Air India flight from Kolkata to Mumbai, officials said on Thursday.

According to the Airports Authority of India (AAI), the action followed an incident on Wednesday involving Air India flight AI 2772 after a handwritten threat note was found inside the aircraft’s lavatory shortly before its scheduled departure.

The note, which warned that the aircraft would be hijacked at 11.10 a.m., was discovered by a cabin crew member at around 10.37 a.m. The alert immediately triggered standard security protocols, prompting authorities to initiate a comprehensive security response.

As part of the precautionary measures, all 105 passengers on board were deboarded and the aircraft was moved to an isolation bay for detailed inspection and security checks. Multiple security agencies conducted mandatory screening procedures to ensure the safety of passengers and crew.

The flight, originally scheduled to depart at around 10.30 a.m., remained grounded for several hours while security personnel completed the required checks. After authorities found no credible threat, the warning was declared a hoax.

The aircraft was subsequently cleared for operations and departed for Mumbai at 5.38 p.m.

AAI said the passenger linked to the incident was later handed over to the Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose International Airport Police Station for further investigation. Authorities have launched a probe into the matter and are examining the circumstances surrounding the threat note.

Meanwhile, last month, an Air India flight from Frankfurt to Delhi made an emergency landing in Jaipur after reportedly transmitting Squawk 7500, the international code used to indicate a hijacking.

Reports claim that the alert was received by Ahmedabad Air Traffic Control (ATC), following which the aircraft landed safely in Jaipur. Further details about the circumstances that triggered the alert were not immediately available.

Squawk 7500 is an internationally recognised aviation transponder code that pilots use to discreetly alert air traffic control to a hijacking or unlawful interference with an aircraft.

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