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RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations

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Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.

Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.

The three-day meeting started on Monday.

In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.

In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.

India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.

Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.

Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities

MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.

The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.

Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.

Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.

Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services

India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.

Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.

It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.

Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo

The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.

Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.

Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking

We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.

Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group

The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.

Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group

There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.

A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.

Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities

The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.

Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.

Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital

We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.

And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.

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20 pc EV share by 2030 can save import bill worth Rs 1 lakh crore, Delhi policy shows the way

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New Delhi, July 2: The West Asia crisis is transforming Indians’ travel preferences with a hastened shift to electric vehicles (EV) and EV penetration could save Rs 1 lakh crore of import bill with a 20 per cent adoption rate by 2030 from the current 10 per cent, an SBI Research report said on Thursday.

With the onset of the US-Iran war on February 28, the registration of EVs have jumped significantly in India. From average 1.3 lakh registration in 2025, the March-June period exhibited average 2.3 lakh registrations — a whopping 1 lakh more compared to 2025 average.

“At the current rate, we believe, total EV registrations may cross 25 lakh mark in 2026,” said the report.

The penetration of pure EV is continuously rising in overall registration. From merely less than 2 per cent share in 2024, the registration share of pure EV has reached more than 8 per cent share in 2026 to date. In some states, the penetration of pure EV has crossed more than 10 per cent share

India has 29,151 charging stations. Two states (Karnataka and Maharashtra) accounted for 35 per cent of overall charging stations, said the report.

As per new EV policy, the Delhi government plans to install 32,000 charging points infrastructure within the next four years.

“The success of EV will largely depend upon the availability of charging stations,” said the report.

From the current level of 2.86 crore vehicle registered in India (2025), “our projections indicate that by 2030, 4 crore vehicles are going to register. We also estimate that out of these 4 crore vehicles, 20 per cent are EVs (80 lakh from the 2025 level of 15.7 lakh),” the report projected.

“Our estimate indicate that during the four-year period of 2027-2030, 35 lakh more EVs are expected to replace the petrol vehicles (as compared to current BAU scenario),” it added.

In this regard, Delhi’s new EV policy is commendable.

A purchase incentive will be provided to two-wheeler vehicles in the first three years (cumulative: Rs 60,000). For three wheelers, the incentives are Rs 1,20,000 cumulatively. N1 commercial trucks will be provided with a subsidy of Rs 1 lakh in the first year. Delhi also offers 100 per cent waiver on road tax and one-time registration fees for eligible EVs.

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Sensex, Nifty end higher as FMCG, banking and realty stocks lift benchmark indices

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Mumbai, July 1: Indian equity benchmark indices ended higher on Wednesday, supported by strong buying in FMCG, banking, financial and realty stocks.

The Nifty climbed 140.10 points, or 0.59 per cent, to close at 24,005.85, while the Sensex advanced 443.97 points, or 0.58 per cent, to settle at 76,922.64.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the 24,100–24,200 region, which coincides with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), continues to act as the immediate resistance zone.

“A sustained breakout above this band would reinforce bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance towards the 24,400 region,” an analyst stated.

“On the downside, the 23,900–23,800 zone continues to serve as a crucial support area, closely aligned with the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs),” a market expert added.

Among the Nifty constituents, Eternal, Adani Enterprises and Nestle India emerged as the top gainers, helping lift the benchmark index.

The broader market also finished in positive territory, with the Nifty MidCap index rising 0.34 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index gaining 0.36 per cent.

On the sectoral front, the Nifty Realty index led the gains, followed by the Nifty FMCG and Nifty Auto indices, as investors accumulated shares in these sectors. However, the Nifty IT, Nifty Metal and Nifty Pharma indices underperformed the broader market and ended with relatively weaker gains or losses.

Analysts said that domestic equities extended their upward momentum, with gains across key sectors outweighing weakness in information technology, metal and pharmaceutical stocks.

“The domestic markets entered H2 CY26 on an optimistic footing as multiple headwinds began to abate, with the anticipated US-India trade agreement, easing Middle East tensions, and benign oil prices emerging as the key drivers of positive sentiment,” an analyst added.

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MSC Group’s arm to invest around $1.4 billion for 49 pc share in Adani’s Vizhinjam port

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Ahmedabad, June 30: Adani Ports on Tuesday said it has entered into a definitive agreement with MSC Group under which MSC’s container terminal operating and investing arm Terminal Investment Limited (TiL) will invest for 49 per cent interest in Adani Vizhinjam Port Private Limited (AVPPL), the concessionaire for Vizhinjam port.

The strategic collaboration represents the single largest foreign private investment in Indian port infrastructure and cements Vizhinjam’s emergence as a dominant transshipment gateway in the Indian Ocean region.

TiL will invest $1.397 billion, equivalent to its proportionate 49 per cent share in Vizhinjam port in total deal value of $2.85 billion.

“Vizhinjam port has emerged as a premier transshipment hub and ramped up at an unprecedented pace, becoming the first Indian port to earn the unique distinction of crossing two million TEUs within 18 months of operations,” said Ashwani Gupta, Whole-time Director and CEO, APSEZ.

“I am delighted to expand APSEZ’s long-standing partnership with MSC to Vizhinjam, as we prepare for the port’s next leg of journey. I am confident that our association will deliver enhanced supply chain efficiencies at a global scale and improve India’s access to key global mature and developing markets,” Gupta said.

The transaction is subject to customary approvals, including regulatory ones.

The strategic collaboration between APSEZ and MSC Group will deliver significant advantages for APSEZ, including enhanced volume visibility and accelerated ramp-up ahead of plan, driven by additional cargo volumes; a higher share of Bangladesh cargo, largely dependent on competing Southeast Asian transshipment hubs; strengthen presence on East Africa trade routes; and elevated relay cargo volumes.

TiL is one of the world’s largest container terminal operators and part of the MSC Group comprising a portfolio of more than 100 container terminals across five continents and a throughput of more than 70 million TEUs per annum.

Commissioned in December 2024, Vizhinjam port is India’s first deep-draft mega transshipment port with 1.6 million TEU capacity. The port is undergoing expansion that will increase capacity 3.5x to 5.7 million TEUs by December 2028, according to the company.

Vizhinjam port is strategically located just 10 nautical miles from the East-West shipping route connecting Europe, the Persian Gulf, and the Far East.

During FY26, Vizhinjam port handled 1.3 million TEUs. In its first year, Vizhinjam port handled 1.3 million TEUs and 615 vessels, becoming the fastest Indian port to cross the one million TEU milestone.

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