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RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations

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Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.

Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.

The three-day meeting started on Monday.

In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.

In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.

India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.

Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.

Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities

MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.

The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.

Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.

Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.

Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services

India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.

Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.

It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.

Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo

The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.

Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.

Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking

We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.

Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group

The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.

Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group

There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.

A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.

Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities

The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.

Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.

Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital

We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.

And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.

Business

Consumers brace for 3-day bank strike; certain banks open on Sunday

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New Delhi, Sep 27: State Bank of India (SBI), Bank of Baroda (BoB), Punjab National Bank (PNB) and several other public sector banks are open on Sunday (September 27), giving customers an opportunity to complete their banking work before a proposed three-day nationwide bank strike from September 28 to September 30.

The special Sunday opening applies to public sector banks (PSBs) and regional rural banks (RRBs), following a direction aimed at ensuring the availability of regular banking services ahead of the proposed strike. Customers who need to visit a branch for important banking work can therefore use the additional working day, subject to the operational arrangements and staffing at individual branches.

The decision to open PSBs and RRBs on Sunday was taken following a meeting held on September 21 between officials from the Finance Ministry, public sector banks, regional rural banks, the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) and NABARD.

The move assumes significance as September 26 and 27 fall on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. With the proposed bank strike scheduled immediately after the weekend, customers could otherwise have faced several consecutive days with limited access to physical branch services. The Sunday opening has consequently been planned to provide an additional opportunity to complete important banking transactions before the strike.

Among the public sector banks operating today are State Bank of India, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, Bank of India, Indian Bank, Union Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra, UCO Bank, Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank and Punjab & Sind Bank.

The arrangement also covers 28 regional rural banks across the country. These include Andhra Pradesh Grameena Bank, Arunachal Pradesh Rural Bank, Assam Gramin Bank, Bihar Gramin Bank, Chhattisgarh Gramin Bank, Gujarat Gramin Bank, Haryana Gramin Bank, Himachal Pradesh Gramin Bank, Jammu and Kashmir Grameen Bank, Jharkhand Gramin Bank, Karnataka Grameena Bank, Kerala Grameena Bank, Madhya Pradesh Gramin Bank, Maharashtra Gramin Bank, Manipur Rural Bank, Meghalaya Rural Bank, Mizoram Rural Bank, Nagaland Rural Bank, Odisha Grameen Bank, Puducherry Grama Bank, Punjab Gramin Bank, Rajasthan Gramin Bank, Tamil Nadu Grama Bank, Telangana Grameena Bank, Tripura Gramin Bank, Uttar Pradesh Gramin Bank, Uttarakhand Gramin Bank and West Bengal Gramin Bank.

However, the Sunday opening arrangement does not automatically extend to private sector banks.

The special Sunday banking arrangement comes ahead of the proposed three-day nationwide strike called by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) and other bank unions from September 28 to September 30.

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Crude oil, global yields, FII flows among key factors to drive stock market next week

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Mumbai, Sep 27: After ending lower for the seventh consecutive week, the Indian stock market is likely to take cues from crude oil prices, global bond yields, foreign fund flows, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and key US economic data releases in the coming week.

Market sentiment remained subdued through most of the week, with indices trading in a narrow range during the initial sessions. However, a sharp sell-off on Thursday weighed heavily on investor confidence before value buying in select blue-chip stocks helped the market recover on Friday.

The Sensex rose 315.20 points, or 0.43 per cent, to close at 73,895.74 on Friday, while the Nifty gained 77.40 points, or 0.34 per cent, to settle at 23,140.50. Buying interest was seen in banking, oil and gas, and automobile stocks after the recent correction pushed several large-cap counters to attractive valuations.

Going into the new week, crude oil prices are expected to remain one of the most important triggers for the equity market. With Brent crude continuing to hover above the $100-per-barrel level, concerns over inflationary pressures, higher import costs and pressure on corporate margins remain elevated.

However, the recent easing in oil prices has provided some relief to investors. Market participants will closely monitor crude price movements as any fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions could once again drive prices higher.

Global bond yields will also be closely tracked following the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. Rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar could dampen risk appetite and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, including India. Conversely, any moderation in yields may provide support to equities and improve investor sentiment.

Geopolitical developments surrounding the ongoing US-Iran conflict are another key factor on investors’ radar. Iran has reportedly proposed a seven-day framework aimed at restoring normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for easing sanctions and broader ceasefire measures.

Any progress toward de-escalation could help stabilise energy markets, while renewed tensions may increase volatility across global financial markets.

Foreign institutional investor (FII) activity will remain crucial after sustained selling pressure in recent weeks. Analysts believe strong participation from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and oversold market conditions could aid intermittent rebounds.

However, a lasting recovery will depend on stability in crude oil prices, easing global yields, improvement in geopolitical conditions and moderation in foreign fund outflows.

Investors will also closely watch a series of key US economic data releases scheduled next week. The data is expected to provide further clues on the health of the world’s largest economy, inflation trends and the likely trajectory of interest rates. The outcome could influence global risk sentiment and impact flows into equity markets worldwide.

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Bank strike: Customers urged to finish key transactions before 3-day nationwide protest

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New Delhi, Sep 26: Customers of several public sector and old-generation private sector banks have been advised to complete important banking transactions in advance as bank employees’ unions prepare for a three-day nationwide strike starting September 28. The proposed strike is expected to disrupt branch operations across many banks and coincides with the sector’s crucial half-yearly closing period.

The strike has been called by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), which claims to represent nearly 90 per cent of the country’s banking workforce.

The unions are pressing for the implementation of a five-day banking week, along with pension-related reforms and other employee welfare measures.

In a bid to reduce inconvenience to customers, the government has directed public sector banks to remain open on Sunday, September 27, enabling customers to complete urgent transactions before the strike begins.

State Bank of India (SBI) has issued an advisory stating that while it will make efforts to maintain essential services at branches and offices, some banking operations could be affected during the strike period.

The bank has urged customers to complete critical transactions ahead of time and make use of digital banking channels, including YONO, internet banking, mobile banking, UPI, ATMs and cash deposit machines, wherever possible.

Bank of India has also alerted customers about the planned strike and advised them to rely on the bank’s round-the-clock digital platforms such as internet banking, mobile banking, ATMs, business correspondent points and UPI services for their banking requirements.

Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) are also expected to participate in the agitation, potentially widening the impact on banking services across the country.

However, new-generation private sector banks such as ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank are expected to continue normal operations, offering customers an alternative for routine banking services during the strike period.

Earlier this week, the Finance Ministry appealed to bank employees’ unions to avoid the strike and resolve pending issues through dialogue. The ministry maintained that a majority of the concerns raised by the unions have already been substantially addressed.

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