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RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley

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The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.

The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.

Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.

Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.

The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.

However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.

Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.

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57 pc Indian office occupiers say AI not affecting leasing decisions

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New Delhi, Aug 27: Despite the growing weight of artificial intelligence (AI) in corporate strategy, 57 per cent of office occupiers in India said it has no material impact on their leasing decisions, a report said on Thursday.

The report from CBRE South Asia said about 93 per cent of over 200 occupiers surveyed are at some stage of AI implementation, but roughly 59 per cent remain in early or exploratory phases testing proofs‑of‑concept and mapping systemic changes before committing capital or restructuring physical assets.

AI is at an advanced or scaled adoption stage for a third of the cohort, driving immediate changes in how talent is deployed and physical workspaces are utilised, the report said.

While a majority do not expect immediate changes to leasing strategies, occupiers are likely to prioritise high‑quality workplaces that support talent attraction, innovation and advanced technology needs, the report added.

A large proportion of organisations are likely to plan their real estate decisions based on their workforce dynamics and business impact of their AI strategies.

Meanwhile, a section of occupiers anticipated AI creating new opportunities for workforce growth as organisations scale emerging capabilities and technology-led functions.

“While AI adoption is becoming increasingly widespread, business maturity and the pace of deployment will ultimately determine its impact on workforce requirements and, consequently, future leasing decisions,” said Anshuman Magazine, Chairman and CEO-India, South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa, CBRE.

“As organisations continue to transition from experimentation to scaled implementation, the implications for headcount, workplace strategies, and space demand are likely to evolve over time,” he added,

Ram Chandnani, Managing Director, Leasing Services, India, CBRE said that the flight-to-quality trend remains firmly intact, with premium workplaces continuing to play a critical role in attracting and retaining talent.

“In effect, AI is influencing the type of space occupiers seek well before it alters the quantum of space they require,” he added.

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CM Patel returns from US-Canada tour; says investors keen to invest in Gujarat

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Ahmedabad, Aug 27: Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel returned to Ahmedabad on Thursday after completing a nine-day visit to the United States and Canada aimed at attracting global investment and promoting the 2027 Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit, saying companies across key sectors had shown interest in investing in the state.

Patel was welcomed at Ahmedabad airport by Deputy Chief Minister Harsh Sanghavi and senior state government officials following his visit from August 17 to 26.

The overseas outreach focussed on investors, technology leaders, entrepreneurs and the Gujarati diaspora in San Francisco, Washington, DC, New York and Toronto.

Speaking to reporters after his return, Patel said the state government’s objective was to ensure that a larger share of investment coming into India was directed towards Gujarat.

“We have witnessed the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s global relationships and the trust he enjoys during this visit. Because of the complete trust people have in the Prime Minister, investors are keen to make greater investments across various sectors,” he said.

Patel said the delegation had held meetings with major companies and investors in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, data centres and manufacturing, as well as financial companies in connection with GIFT City.

He said the response to the meetings had been encouraging. “Many companies are enthusiastic about investing in Gujarat. Very good investment will come to Gujarat,” he said.

The visit was undertaken as part of Gujarat’s preparations for the 11th Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit, which is scheduled to be held from January 10 to 12, 2027.

During the overseas programme, global investors, technology leaders and innovators were invited to participate in investment, collaboration and partnership opportunities at the summit.

The delegation also engaged with members of the Gujarati diaspora. In Canada, Patel met entrepreneurs and business representatives and invited the community to invest in Gujarat and participate in the forthcoming summit.

The delegation was led by Patel and Chief Secretary M.K. Das. It included Additional Chief Secretary of Finance Department, T. Natarajan; Additional Chief Secretary of Industries and Mines Department, Mamta Verma; Principal Secretary to the Chief Minister Sanjeev Kumar; and Additional Principal Secretary to the Chief Minister Dr Vikrant Pandey.

Representatives of Gujarat’s industrial and business community also accompanied the delegation.

The meetings were held with investors, technology leaders, young entrepreneurs, innovators and members of the Gujarati diaspora across the three US cities and Toronto.

Discussions covered investment opportunities and partnerships in emerging technologies and industrial sectors, with the state also seeking participation from international companies in the 2027 summit.

After the delegation returned to Gujarat, senior officials gathered at Ahmedabad airport to welcome Patel, Das and other members of the delegation.

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Sensex, Nifty post mild uptick over easing crude prices

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Mumbai, Aug 27: The Indian equity markets posted a mild uptick early on Thursday as oil prices edged down on expectations of Iran-Oman talks over opening the Strait of Hormuz.

As of 9.18 am, Sensex added 81 points, or 0.10 per cent, to reach 77,553 and Nifty gained 37 points, or 0.16 per cent, to reach 24,425.

Main broad-cap indices performed in line with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 added 0.31 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.24 per cent.

All sectoral indices on NSE traded in green except Nifty Media. Nifty IT was the top gainer up 0.42 per cent.

Brent crude eased 0.6 per cent to $87.30 a barrel after Iran informed about discussions with Oman to finalise the Strait of Hormuz-related agreement, easing concerns over prolonged oil supply disruptions in West Asia.

“The near-term bias remains cautious and range-bound, with mixed Asian markets and subdued global cues keeping investors watchful. The focus remains on inflation, bond yields and ongoing geopolitical developments, while easing crude prices could provide some support to Indian equities,” an analyst said.

The immediate support for Nifty is placed at 24,000–24,050 level. On the upside, the 24,350–24,400 zone remains a key hurdle for the bulls, market participants said.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index gained 0.63 per cent and Shenzhen added 1.17 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.15 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index eased 0.47 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 2.01 per cent.

Overnight, Wall Street ended mixed-to-lower as investors assessed Nvidia’s earnings and renewed concerns over US inflation, while early Asian markets are trading mostly higher.

The US markets ended in red overnight as Nasdaq lost 0.08 per cent. The S&P 500 shed 0.02 per cent, and the Dow Jones dipped 0.21 per cent.

On August 26, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought equities worth Rs 502 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 6,425 crore.

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