Business
RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley
The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.
“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.
The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.
Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.
Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.
The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.
However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.
Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.
Business
68 Japanese firms finalising manufacturing, research plans in India: Ashwini Vaishnaw

Mumbai, Sep 18: Union Electronics and Information Technology Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw on Friday said 68 Japanese companies participating in Semicon India 2026 are in the process of finalising their manufacturing, research and partnership plans in India.
Speaking to media during his visit to the Japanese pavilion at the event, Vaishnaw said more than 30 countries are participating in Semicon India 2026, reflecting growing international interest in India’s semiconductor ecosystem.
“Here at the Japanese pavilion, there are 68 Japanese companies. They are finalising their plans for manufacturing, research and partnerships in India,” the Minister said.
Vaishnaw also highlighted the enthusiasm among young people at the semiconductor event, saying India’s semiconductor push is creating opportunities for high-skilled employment and helping develop a talent pool for the sector.
The Minister also showcased a semiconductor chip developed by students of the National Institute of Technology (NIT) Rourkela in Odisha. He said the chip was developed under the talent development programme of India’s Semiconductor Mission and that the students had made a presentation on their work before Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The student-developed chip was displayed to the media during Vaishnaw’s interaction.
Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi had earlier expressed pride at seeing indigenous chip designs developed by NIT Rourkela being showcased alongside Made-in-India semiconductor chips at Semicon India.
Majhi said the achievement was a matter of pride for Odisha and demonstrated the talent, innovation and research capabilities of institutions in the state.
He also credited Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and Vaishnaw’s efforts for India’s continued progress towards building a strong and self-reliant semiconductor ecosystem.
The Chief Minister congratulated the scientists, researchers and the entire NIT Rourkela team, noting that talent from Odisha is contributing to India’s semiconductor journey and its broader efforts towards technological self-reliance.
Business
Govt eases stockholding limit for sugar, traders told to further lower prices

New Delhi, Sep 18: The government on Friday eased the existing 15-day sugar stockholding limit for bulk consumers to 30 days, subject to the condition that the quantity of stock held beyond the existing 15 days limit is sourced exclusively from sugar imported under advance authorisation scheme (AAS) and tariff rate quota (TRQ).
The stockholding limit for purchase from the open market will remain unchanged and will be restricted to 15 days’ consumption only.
The government has also put in place a mechanism for the declaration and weekly disclosure of sugar stocks every Friday by bulk consumers through the Department of Food and Public Distribution’s online portal, according to an official statement.
The government held detailed consultations with major bulk consumers of sugar and their suggestions have been duly considered with a view to maintaining a stable and orderly sugar market.
Meanwhile, retail sugar prices have declined by around 10 per cent to Rs 58.50 from their peak of Rs 65 in August. However, ex-mill prices have already declined by nearly 25 per cent.
The government observed that the slower decline in retail prices indicates that the benefit of the reduction in ex-mill prices has not yet been fully transmitted through the supply chain to the consumer.
The government made a strong appeal to the sugar trade, wholesalers and retailers to immediately pass on the benefit of the significant reduction in ex-mill sugar prices to consumers, emphasising that the decline in retail prices must keep pace with the correction already achieved at the mill level.
At present, bulk consumers using or consuming more than 10 MT of sugar per month as a raw material for production, consumption or use are permitted to hold sugar stock for a period not exceeding 15 days of their consumption. Bulk consumers have represented that the existing limit may be enhanced, particularly in view of the upcoming festival season.
The measure is intended to strike a balance between the interests of bulk consumers and the need to maintain stability in the domestic sugar market. It will provide greater operational flexibility to genuine industrial consumers during the upcoming festival season while ensuring that additional stocks are sourced from imported sugar rather than placing undue pressure on domestic stocks, the statement said.
In a joint meeting with representatives of ISMA, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories and sugar trade, Secretary, Department of Food and Public Distribution, underlined that the reduction in ex-mill prices has not yet been reflected fully in retail prices.
The Secretary emphasised that the farmer and the consumer are the two central pillars of India’s sugar policy. The government has consistently worked to balance the interests of sugarcane farmers with the need to maintain stable and reasonable sugar prices for consumers.
Business
Indian Railways boosts passenger and freight capacity in Maharashtra, Telangana

New Delhi, Sep 18: In a bid to augment railway capacity and improving train operations, Indian Railways on Friday said it has approved the doubling of the Chouk-Karjat railway section (10.86 km) of Central Railway at a cost of Rs 497 crore.
Indian Railways also approved the construction of the 38.21 km new rail line between Mukutban (Adilabad) and Gadchandur in South Central Railway at a cost of Rs 493 crore.
The Central Railway project has been approved for doubling, tripling, quadrupling, flyover and bypass works aimed at augmenting the capacity of the railway network, according to an official statement.
The Chouk-Karjat section forms part of the Panvel-Chouk-Karjat route, which is an important corridor for both passenger and freight movement.
On completion of the project, the section is expected to facilitate five additional passenger trains in each direction per day.
The project is also expected to support additional freight traffic of 18.35 Million Tonnes Per Annum (MTPA). It will also help reduce the detention of freight trains.
Meanwhile, Mukutban in Yavatmal district and Gadchandur in Chandrapur district are important industrial and mining centres, serving several cement plants, coal mines of Western Coalfields Ltd. and nearby limestone mines.
The new rail line will strengthen rail connectivity to these industrial clusters and facilitate more efficient movement of freight, said the statement.
The new rail line will provide a shorter and more efficient rail route, reducing travel distance, transportation time, and associated costs.
It will also provide an alternative route to decongest the existing Wardha-Manikgarh section, supporting smoother movement of freight traffic.
The project is expected to support 6.08 MTPA of freight traffic, along with two MEMU trains in each direction per day after commissioning.
The freight traffic is expected to include coal and coke, cement, sponge iron, metal scrap, iron & steel, fertilisers and foodgrains, among other commodities.
The new line will provide direct connectivity between the coal and cement cluster and the Majri-Nanded route, facilitating shorter leads for coal, cement and RMSP traffic towards Jalna, Parbhani, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar and other destinations in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
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