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RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley

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The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.

The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.

Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.

Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.

The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.

However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.

Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.

Business

Tesla rolls out Halloween Mode for ‘Model Y’ in India

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Tesla India on Friday said it launched a new software update for Model Y and Model Y L vehicles that adds a range of Halloween-themed features, highlighting the company’s over-the-air (OTA) software update capabilities.

According to the Elon Musk-backed firm, the update allows Tesla vehicles to receive new features and improvements remotely without requiring a visit to a service centre.

Halloween Mode includes a ghost-themed vehicle avatar, Halloween sound effects, special lighting sequences, seasonal vehicle wraps and a themed lock sound, it said.

The update also introduces a ‘Trick or Treat Mode’ which activates sound and lighting effects when visitors approach the vehicle.

Other features include a photobooth function and a voice messaging feature that allows users to speak through the Tesla app and have the vehicle relay messages, the company said.

Tesla said customers can experience the new features at its Experience Centres across India.

The company currently operates those centres in Noida, Delhi, Gurugram, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Mumbai and has approved collision centres in Pune and Ahmedabad.

Earlier in October, Tesla CEO Elon Musk showcased a new version of the Roadster sports car with a prototype briefly lifting off the ground during a demonstration at a SpaceX facility in Texas.

A post on X shared by Musk showed the vehicle navigating an elevated curved track before becoming airborne for a short distance and landing safely, drawing comparisons to a flying car.

The showcase highlighted a specialised propulsion system that combines the electric vehicle platform with high-pressure air tanks and thruster technology.

According to Tesla, the system can generate lift and improve vehicle dynamics through strategically placed thrusters that help control movement while off the ground.

The test prompted enthusiastic reactions from company executives, who described it as evidence that flying-car technology is moving closer to reality. Tesla, however, did not provide a timeline for commercial deployment.

Musk said the vehicle would remain practical for everyday use, although he acknowledged that road legality could depend on local regulations.

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Maha CM directs development of state-of-the-art digital platforms for aggregator companies

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Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Thursday directed the transport department to build a state-of-the-art digital platform to provide real-time information on aggregator companies’ vehicles, drivers, and working hours, aiming to make app-based passenger transport services in the state safer, more transparent, and well-organised.

He instructed that this platform should integrate Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analytics to maintain effective control over vehicle operations, driver dispatch, parking management, and passenger services.

CM Fadnavis gave these instructions during a meeting concerning the Maharashtra Aggregator Rules-2026. The review covered the growing number of vehicles in the aggregator sector, the challenges faced by independent taxi drivers, passenger safety, and transparency in ride allocation on digital platforms. Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik, Additional Chief Secretary (Transport) Sanjay Sethi, Transport Commissioner Rajesh Narvekar, and other transport department officials were present.

The Chief Minister directed that complete digital details must be available for every vehicle operated by aggregator companies. This includes registration, assigned parking locations, driver profile, driving license, police verification, and other required documents.

Additionally, the system must maintain real-time logs indicating which driver is operating which vehicle across various shifts throughout the day. In the event of an incident, a robust mechanism should ensure that details regarding the vehicle and driver are immediately accessible.

By leveraging artificial intelligence on this platform, the system will analyse vehicle operations, driver shifts, and other critical parameters. This will allow regulatory authorities to monitor compliance with rules and enable prompt action whenever necessary, he said.

CM Fadnavis highlighted the need to verify whether independent taxi drivers and large fleet management companies receive equal opportunities when rides are allocated on app-based transport platforms.

He noted that it is essential to audit the criteria and reasons based on which specific vehicles are assigned rides on digital platforms. He directed officials to utilise technology to detect any bias or unfair discrimination in ride allocation algorithms.

The Chief Minister stressed that while passengers must receive safe and reliable service, local drivers must also get equal employment opportunities.

To achieve this, priority must be given to effective enforcement of rules, transparent ride allocation, and technical oversight of aggregator operations.

In light of the expansion of the state’s aggregator sector and growing passenger needs, he directed the Transport Department to develop an efficient, technology-driven regulatory framework that balances the interests of independent taxi drivers, passenger safety, and overall traffic discipline.

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Nifty, Sensex post early mild gains despite mixed global cues

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The Indian equity markets opened with mild gains early on Thursday despite mixed global cues and elevated crude prices.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex added 168 points, or 0.23 per cent, to reach 73,414 and Nifty gained 45 points, or 0.20 per cent, to reach 22,744.

Main broad-cap indices performed in line with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.25 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.13 per cent.

Sectoral indices on NSE traded mixed with gains led by Nifty IT, up 0.80 per cent and pharma, up 0.30 per cent. Nifty private bank and media were among top losers, down 0.18 per cent and 0.16 per cent, respectively.

The opening gain of benchmarks may remain selective unless the Nifty decisively crosses 22,800, as the Federal Reserve’s policy message, elevated crude and high US bond yields continue to restrict broader risk-taking, an analyst said.

Brent crude remains elevated near $114.50 a barrel amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty, keeping energy costs high and leaving oil-sensitive sectors exposed to sustained cost pressures.

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged, but two members voted for an increase, and markets raised expectations of another hike in December. The US 10-year Treasury yield consequently moved to around 5.02 per cent, indicating that the policy pause has not materially loosened global financial conditions.

Unless yields stabilise below recent levels, dollar assets may continue competing with emerging markets for capital and limit the durability of foreign inflows into India, market participants said.

In the previous session, Nifty closed at 22,698, down 0.22 per cent, after a recovery was capped by profit booking. Immediate support is placed at 22,600–22,650, while resistance is seen at 22,850–22,900.

In the previous session, Bank Nifty closed at 54,267, up 0.54 per cent. Immediate support is placed at 53,800–54,000, while resistance is seen at 54,600–54,800.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index declined 0.82 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 2.48 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.28 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.06 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi lost 2.72 per cent.

The US markets ended in green overnight as Nasdaq added 0.27 per cent, S&P 500 gained 0.28 per cent, and the Dow Jones inched up 0.19 per cent.

On October 28, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought equities worth Rs 872 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 643 crore.

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