Business
RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley
The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.
“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.
The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.
Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.
Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.
The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.
However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.
Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.
Business
OPEC+ agrees to oil output quota hike amid Hormuz blockade, Kuwait oil exports zero

New Delhi, May 3: Amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to raise oil output targets in June.
Multiple reports say that seven OPEC+ countries have agreed to raise oil output targets by about 188,000 barrels per day next month. The output hike would rather be largely symbolic until Strait of Hormuz reopens.
This will be the third consecutive monthly increase amid the geopolitical crisis and the departure of the UAE from the group.
With the UAE leaving, OPEC+ includes 21 members, including Iran.
However, only the seven nations (and the UAE) have been involved in monthly production decisions. Iran, also an OPEC+ member, has seen its own exports dwindle amid the blockade.
Crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, down 7.70 million bpd from February.
Last week, the UAE announced it was leaving the OPEC and OPEC+ cartels in what is seen as a major setback to the group of oil-exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia. The UAE said the decision reflected its “long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”.
The exit of the UAE is expected to weaken the oil cartel at a time when the Persian Gulf countries have taken a huge hit to their exports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by an embattled Iran. The UAE accounts for around 15 per cent of the OPEC oil exports.
Reports also surfaced that Kuwait exported zero barrels of crude oil in April, a situation not seen since the 1991 Iraqi occupation, due to blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, impacting around 2 million barrels per day. The blockade has led to a complete disruption in Kuwaiti exports.
Meanwhile, oil prices dropped after reports said Iran proposed fresh talks with the United States using Pakistan as a mediator.
West Texas Intermediate fell more than five per cent and dropped below $100 per barrel. It later recovered to $101.7.
Brent crude also fell more than three per cent to $106.98 before rising again to $108.4.
Business
Gold dips 0.81 pc this week over waning hopes of Fed rate cuts

New Delhi, Gold prices dipped 0.81 per cent during the week as negotiations between the United States and Iran stalled, denting hopes for near‑term interest‑rate cuts.
On Friday, MCX gold June futures gained 0.01 per cent while MCX silver May futures inched up 0.49 per cent. Currently, gold futures stand at Rs 1,51,363, while silver futures stand at Rs 2,47,500 per kg.
The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,50,263 on Thursday, down from Rs 1,51,495 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
In international markets, bullion dropped as much as 1.2 per cent on Friday after gaining 1.5 per cent in the previous session, weighed down by rising energy costs and firmer Treasury yields. Gold has fallen nearly 14 per cent since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, traders said.
The Iranian administration maintained that the US blockade would have to end before the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, according to multiple media reports. Iranian state media said that Tehran had delivered a fresh proposal for talks to Pakistani mediators, but both sides signalled they were waiting for the other to make the first move.
“While diplomatic engagements remained active, the absence of a decisive breakthrough kept the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in prices,” an analyst said.
US inflation data showed the headline PCE price index at 3.5 per cent in March, at its highest level in nearly three years, reinforcing the view that policy rates may stay higher for longer.
Analysts said that rising energy prices could lead to central banks maintaining interest rates higher for longer, which would pressure non-yielding assets like gold.
Crude oil traded with heightened volatility through the week but retained a firm undertone, holding near elevated levels as concerns around potential supply disruptions persisted. The market continues to price in risks to global oil flows, limiting meaningful downside and providing support on dips.
Precious metals entered a phase of corrective consolidation following their recent safe-haven rally, analysts said.
Gold and silver witnessed intermittent profit booking at higher levels through the week, while selective buying interest emerged near key support zones. Safe-haven demand has eased marginally but continues to lend support on declines amid lingering uncertainty.
COMEX gold traded near the $4,620–$4,650 zone, and a major resistance is seen at the $4,700–$4,760 levels. Overall, the trend remains constructive with a cautious near-term bias, with strength dependent on a breakout above resistance.
COMEX Silver is currently trading above $76, and the broader trend remains constructive but with a cautious near-term bias, market participants said.
Business
Global crude prices rise 0.73 pc as US-Iran talks stall

New Delhi, Crude oil prices rose on Friday as efforts to resolve the Iran crisis reached a stalemate, with Tehran continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz and Washington restricting Iranian crude exports.
Brent futures for July on Intercontinental Exchange gained $0.81, or 0.73 per cent, to $111.21 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 31 cents, or 0.30 per cent, to $105.37. Both benchmarks have posted gains for four consecutive months, analysts noted.
Brent crude oil had crossed $120 per barrel for the first time in 4 years, heightening inflation concerns and putting pressure on global markets.
Market participants flagged new supply concerns after Brent’s June contract, which expired on Thursday, hit $126.41 a barrel, its highest level since March 2022.
British and European central banks cautioned about rising inflation, while the United States is working towards a coalition of allied countries and shipping companies to ensure secure transit through Hormuz.
A ceasefire though in effect since April 8 felt shaky, as on Thursday evening, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said it was unrealistic to expect quick outcomes from negotiations with the US, according to multiple reports.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are boosting inflation and complicating policy. Asia faces greater economic risks from the energy shock, he added.
The price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased by Rs 993, starting Friday, and after the revision, a 19-kg cylinder will now cost Rs 3,071.5 in Delhi.
However, there has been no change in the price of domestic LPG cylinders for 33 crore users, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) said in a statement.
This is the third time that the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased since February 28, when the US-Israel and Iran war began.
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