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RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley

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The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.

The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.

Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.

Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.

The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.

However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.

Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.

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Sensex drops over 560 points, Nifty slips below 24,100 amid West Asia tensions

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Mumbai, July 14: India’s benchmark equity indices ended sharply lower on Tuesday as heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia triggered broad-based selling, with PSU bank, realty and auto stocks leading the decline.

The Sensex closed 561.46 points, or 0.72 per cent, lower at 77,054.94, while the Nifty slipped 159 points, or 0.66 per cent, to settle at 24,052.05.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the the index remained range-bound after opening with a gap-down as the NSE weekly options expired.

It found support around the previous day’s low while continuing to sustain above the falling trendline.

“In the short term, the outlook is likely to remain positive as long as the index stays above 23,950. On the higher side, it may advance towards the 24,250–24,300 zone,” an analyst said.

“However, a decisive fall below 23,950 could weaken the current bullish setup and trigger a phase of consolidation,” as per the market expert.

Investor sentiment remained subdued amid growing concerns over developments in West Asia, prompting profit booking across key sectors despite resilience in select defensive stocks.

Among the Nifty constituents, HCLTech, Shriram Finance and HDFC Life Insurance Company emerged as the biggest laggards, weighing on the benchmark index.

The weakness extended to the broader market as well, with the Nifty MidCap index ending 0.44 per cent lower and the Nifty SmallCap index declining 1.01 per cent.

Sectoral indices largely traded in the red, with the Nifty Realty, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Auto witnessing the steepest losses. In contrast, the Nifty Pharma index bucked the trend and finished as the top sectoral gainer, reflecting defensive buying amid the broader market weakness.

“Looking ahead, all eyes are now on the US Fed Chair, whose upcoming remarks could set the tone for global rate expectations. Meanwhile, the Q1 earnings season rolls on a positive note but rapid increase in geopolitical risk has dampened the sentiment,” as per the market expert.

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Adani Electricity cuts AT&C losses with crackdown on power theft

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Mumbai, July 14: Adani Electricity’s anti-theft drive has succeeded in significantly reducing its Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses to 4.46 per cent in FY 2025-26 from 4.7 per cent in the previous year, which positions it among the Discoms with the lowest AT&C losses nationwide, according to a company statement issued on Tuesday.

This significant reduction of 0.24 per cent in AT&C losses across Adani Electricity’s extensive network will lower the burden on honest, paying consumers, the statement said.

Adani Electricity conducted 36,720 mass raids during the financial year 2025-2026 and registered 486 First Information Reports (FIRs) against perpetrators of power theft. This intensified vigilance also reflects a 40 per cent increase in odd-timing raids which include early morning, late evening and holidays.

Additionally, 5897 power theft cases were booked. During raids, 79.25 tons of illegal wires were recovered. A total theft of 19.82 million units — amounting to Rs 43.39 crore — was assessed, according to the statement.

The important cases include the successful detection and booking of a high-value electricity theft case of Rs 1.63 crore involving direct supply for moulding activity at Swastik Compound, Chincholi Bandar Road, Malad (West) on 7th November 2025, by the company’s vigilance team.

Similarly, on 4th July 2025 another high-value electricity theft case of Rs 80 lacs was booked involving direct supply for moulding activity at Motilal Nagar, Goregaon (West).

Besides, a case involving electricity theft to the tune of Rs 48.73 lakh was booked in June involving direct supply for moulding activity at Malad (East).

Stealing electricity is a non-bailable offence. Under Section 135 of the Electricity Act 2003, an offender can be punished with a fine, a jail term of up to three years, or both, once proven guilty.

Adani Electricity actively collaborates with police authorities to conduct regular mass raids, apprehend offenders, and confiscate equipment used for power theft. During FY 2025-26, a significant amount of 79.25 tons of unauthorized wires and other equipment were seized, the statement said.

Power theft in high-demand areas like slum clusters, where new network development is challenging due to space constraints, severely overloads the existing infrastructure.

This strain increases maintenance costs due to more frequent cable and transformer failures.

An Adani Electricity spokesperson said, “Power theft unfairly burdens honest, paying consumers. Adani Electricity is committed to eliminating the menace of power theft. By combating such unlawful activities, we safeguard the interests of our customers. We will intensify our efforts in specific areas to further reduce AT&C losses this year.”

“The significant reduction in AT&C losses this year is a direct result of our intensified efforts against power theft. This not only safeguards our infrastructure but also alleviates the financial burden on our honest, paying consumers by enabling us to maintain competitive tariffs,” he added.

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Markets open lower as Brent crude nears $80 amid escalating West Asia crisis

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Mumbai, July 13: Indian equity markets opened lower on Monday as crude oil prices rebounded to near the $80-per-barrel mark amid renewed geopolitical tensions.

Sensex began the session at 76,963.35, down over 600 points or 0.78 per cent, while Nifty started at 24,039.40, declining 167.50 points or 0.69 per cent.

Sector-wise, most indices traded in the red, led by Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal, which fell up to 1 per cent. Nifty Consumer Durables, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Private Bank also witnessed selling pressure, while Nifty IT and Nifty Pharma bucked the trend, gaining up to 0.6 per cent.

According to market experts, the back-and-forth developments in the West Asia crisis have become the new normal, creating uncertainty for energy importers such as India.

IndiGo, Tata Steel, Asian Paints, Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank were among top losers.

“From the market perspective, particularly for India, the price of crude is the crucial factor. Brent is currently trading around $80. So long as Brent trades below $90, the market won’t be impacted significantly. But if Brent shoots above $90, there can be a significant correction in the market,” the experts said.

They added that sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows are providing resilience to the domestic market, with investors shifting allocations towards India amid concentration risks in South Korea’s chip sector.

On Sunday, US forces used precision munitions to hit dozens of targets across multiple locations in Iran, according to the US Central Command.

In addition, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed to have attacked US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Meanwhile, international oil benchmark Brent crude surged more than 4 per cent to trade around $80 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 4.55 per cent to $74.66 per barrel.

In Asian markets, major indices traded lower, with Japan’s Nikkei declining 1.6 per cent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falling 0.20 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI slumping more than 6 per cent.

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