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RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley

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The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.

The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.

Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.

Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.

The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.

However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.

Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.

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Govt disconnects over 82 lakh fraudulent mobile connections via ASTR

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New Delhi, Oct 9: India has disconnected over 82 lakh fraudulent mobile connections through the Artificial Intelligence and Facial Recognition powered Telecom SIM Subscriber Verification (ASTR) tool, Union Minister of State for Communications and Rural Development Dr Chandra Sekhar Pemmasani said on Friday.

Addressing the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Roundtable on “Implementing ITU Standards to Combat Fraudulent Communications” on the sidelines of the India Mobile Congress (IMC) 2026 here, the minister said the country has built a robust and layered defence mechanism against telecom-related fraud and cybercrime.

He noted that organised fraud networks are becoming increasingly sophisticated, with scams involving impersonation, so-called digital arrests, AI-generated voice cloning and deepfakes posing significant challenges. According to the minister, Indians lost more than Rs 22,800 crore to such fraud in 2024.

Dr Pemmasani said India has adopted a five-layered approach to tackle fraudulent communications. This includes real-time blocking of spoofed international calls, identification and disconnection of suspicious mobile connections through the ASTR platform, citizen participation via the Sanchar Saathi initiative, intelligence sharing through the Digital Intelligence Platform (DIP), and targeted action against emerging fraud channels.

Highlighting the impact of these initiatives, he said the Sanchar Saathi app has been downloaded around 25 million times, enabling citizens to actively participate in reporting suspected fraud and misuse of telecom resources.

The minister added that the Digital Intelligence Platform currently connects more than 1,600 organisations, including telecom service providers, banks and law-enforcement agencies, facilitating real-time information sharing to detect and prevent fraudulent activities.

He further said that the Financial Fraud Risk Indicator has helped avert suspected financial losses exceeding Rs 5,000 crore over the past 15 months by enabling timely intervention against fraudulent transactions.

Emphasising the need for international collaboration, Dr Pemmasani said fraud has become a global problem that requires coordinated global solutions.

He underscored the importance of adopting international standards for digital verification of caller identities across networks to curb cross-border fraud.

Welcoming the ITU’s proposal for joint trials among governments, regulators, telecom operators and technology companies, he said India is ready to participate and contribute to the development of global frameworks for trusted communications.

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Skill training institutes no less than IITs, IIMs: PM Modi urges youth to champion skill development

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New Delhi, Oct 9: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday met members of India’s contingent that delivered an impressive performance at the WorldSkills Competition Shanghai 2026, congratulating the young participants for showcasing their talent and skills on the global stage.

The interaction took place at the Prime Minister’s residence at 7, Lok Kalyan Marg, where PM Modi lauded the competitors for their achievements and encouraged them to continue excelling in their respective fields.

Sharing details of the meeting on social media, the Prime Minister praised the participants for their outstanding performance at the international skills competition and said it was a pleasure to interact with and motivate the young achievers.

The Prime Minister underlined the objective behind establishing a separate Ministry for Skill Development and said that the importance of skill training institutions is no less than that of IITs and IIMs. He encouraged the participants to share their experiences and suggestions with the government to help improve India’s skill training system.

India recorded its best-ever performance at the 48th WorldSkills Competition, held from September 22 to 27 at the National Exhibition and Convention Center (NECC) in Shanghai. The country secured six silver medals and 20 Medallions for Excellence, finishing 10th in the overall rankings.

The latest result marks a significant improvement from the previous edition of the competition held in France’s Lyon in 2024, where India finished 13th with four bronze medals and 12 Medallions for Excellence.

The improved ranking reflects the growing capabilities of India’s skilled workforce and its rising presence in global skills competitions.

According to the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, the six-day event brought together more than 1,400 young competitors from nearly 70 countries and regions.

India fielded its largest-ever contingent, comprising 70 competitors, who participated in 63 skill categories spanning emerging technologies, advanced manufacturing, engineering, creative industries and specialised services.

After four days of intense competition, winners were honoured during the closing ceremony held in Shanghai on September 27. The event celebrated excellence in technical expertise, innovation, precision and craftsmanship, drawing participants, industry leaders, experts and international delegations from across the world.

India’s participation in WorldSkills Shanghai 2026 was coordinated by the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) under the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, with support from Sector Skill Councils, industry partners, training institutions and technical experts.

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PhonePe and DPCGC forge partnership to drive regulatory compliance in the OTT ecosystem

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New Delhi, Oct 9: PhonePe and the Digital Publisher Content Grievances Council (DPCGC), a self-regulatory body under the aegis of the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), have announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

The partnership aims to facilitate seamless SRO certification for all merchants, champion regulatory compliance, and drive merchant education for all merchant partners onboarding on PhonePe’s Payment Gateway.

Under applicable Indian regulations, over-the-top (OTT) or Publishers of Online Curated Content (OCCPs) are legally required to be members of a recognised self-regulatory organisation (SRO) for grievance redressal.

Pioneering a compliance-first approach, PhonePe enforces this regulatory requirement as a mandatory prerequisite during its merchant onboarding process.

DPCGC is a Level II SRO formed under the IT Rules, 2021, which is registered with the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting.

Through the MoU, PhonePe and DPCGC aim to drive merchant education and awareness.

Recognising the limited awareness among OTT/OCCPs regarding SRO compliance, the joint initiative will educate both existing and prospective merchants on regulatory requirements and seamlessly facilitate their SRO certification through DPCGC.

The partnership further strengthens PhonePe’s position as a trusted, robust, and compliant payment partner tailored for the rapidly growing OTT ecosystem.

Dr. Subho Ray, President of IAMAI, said, “DPCGC, established under the IT Rules, is committed to efficiently addressing concerns and grievances related to OTT platforms through self-regulation.

This collaboration between DPCGC and PhonePe will foster greater alignment and adherence to the Code of Ethics, expanding the reach of self-regulation and strengthening its benefits for both the industry and its users.”

Deep Agrawal, Head of Payments at PhonePe, added, “At PhonePe, compliance and trust are at the core of everything we build. The OTT segment has exploded in terms of coverage and penetration over the last couple of years.

Agrawal further stated that our MoU with DPCGC will allow us to educate the OTT platforms to seamlessly drive higher awareness about customer grievance redressal, reinforcing PhonePe as the most trusted & compliant growth partner for India’s booming OTT ecosystem.”

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