Business
Moody’s Analytics sees another 60-80 bps hike in repo rate this year
Hours after the Reserve Bank of India raised key lending rates, or repo rate, by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, global financial services company Moody’s Analytics said the central bank could hike the repo rate by another 60 to 80 basis points through the rest of the year.
It, however, maintained that these rate increases will need to be carefully calibrated to meet the central bank’s increasingly difficult objectives of supporting growth and taming inflation.
The lastest hike of 50 basis points was marginally above its expectations of a 40-basis point rate hike, Moody’s said in a report.
Wednesday’s repo rate hike followed a surprise off-cycle rate hike of 40 basis points in May that broke a pandemic-driven pause on interest rates and marked the first hike since August 2018.
“High costs from elevated and volatile global oil prices, higher input costs owing to industry-specific shortages, trade restrictions as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a domestic heat wave have driven up consumer prices,” the report said.
Quoting the central bank, the report said that although domestic demand had gained some traction and the economy remained resilient in the face of these headwinds, inflation pressures have become more broad-based and that upside risks to inflation have “materialised earlier than anticipated”.
It added that fiscal measures announced in May, including excise duty cuts on fuels, increased subsidies on certain imported raw materials and cooking gas, and export restrictions on sugar and wheat, are intended to aid in tackling inflation.
“However, it’s unlikely that these measures can do much to moderate inflation. And given that select food, grain, and vegetable supplies could see continued volatility before stabilising, a substantial cooling is not expected. Further, the impending pickup in goods and services spending will add to demand-driven pressures and aggravate price increases in coming months.”
The months ahead will likely see more fiscal and monetary policy coordination to mitigate the overall inflation hit to economic growth, the report added.
India’s retail inflation has been above RBI’s 6 per cent tolerance level for four months in a row, while wholesale inflation in the country has been in double digit for over a year now.
India’s retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level of 6 per cent till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent, said Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday in his remarks on the outcome of the monetary policy review meeting.
For FY23, RBI sees overall inflation at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.
Coming to growth, India’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, with 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 per cent in Q3, and 4.0 per cent in Q4, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.
Business
India‑UAE ties grow into a model for BRICS collaboration: Report

New Delhi, Sep 14: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and India are broadening a strategic and economic partnership that serves as “an effective model of cooperation within BRICS,” a new report has said.
The partnership is built on a foundation of historic ties, shared interests and major projects that promote trade, investment and logistics connectivity between markets, the report from Gulf Today said.
“The growing UAE-India partnership, reflected in expanding trade, increasingly integrated logistics corridors and cooperation in investment and innovation, provides a practical model of the UAE’s role within BRICS,” the report said.
Further, the partnership also proves UAE’s commitment to exchanging expertise and perspectives and building more integrated and sustainable economic partnerships.
Bilateral trade reached $101.25 billion in FY26, marking the second consecutive year in which trade between the two countries exceeded $100 billion. The UAE and India have set a target to raise bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032.
The partnership is being advanced through initiatives such as Bharat Mart, the Virtual Trade Corridor and cooperation under the India‑Middle East‑Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
“These initiatives are helping strengthen supply chain integration and create new routes for trade and investment flows between the two countries and global markets,” the report noted.
The UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), operational since 2022 was hailed as the first agreement of its kind concluded by the UAE. The agreement has bolstered the flow of goods, services and investment and expanded opportunities for the private sector in both countries.
United Arab Emirates and China were the largest destinations within BRICS, together accounting for 88.50 per cent of India’s electronics exports to the grouping.
The number of Indian companies registered as active members of Dubai Chamber reached 85,841 by the end of June 2026 after 7,579 new Indian firms joined in the first half of the year, marking a year‑on‑year increase of 15 per cent, another report said.
Business
BofA turns bullish on Indian equities, sees Nifty at 26,200 by December 2026

Mumbai, Sep 14: The Nifty could climb to 26,200 by December 2026, implying an upside of around 12 per cent from current levels, as Bank of America (BofA) Securities has turned constructive on Indian equities after maintaining a cautious stance for nearly two years.
In its latest strategy report, BofA said it had remained cautious on Indian stocks since August 2024 and had identified eight key risks that could keep the market volatile. However, five of those risks have either already played out or have been largely priced into the market, prompting the brokerage to adopt a more positive stance.
BofA said the three remaining risks could create around 7 per cent downside for the Nifty 50 in its bear-case scenario. In its base case, however, the brokerage sees the index reaching 26,200 by December 2026.
According to BofA, the remaining risks are expected to peak by October 2026, potentially creating room for a sustained market recovery from November.
One of the key risks identified earlier was a sharp rise in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, compared with BofA’s fourth-quarter 2026 estimate of $81 a barrel. The brokerage noted that crude prices have reversed from the $100-a-barrel level seven times over the past seven months.
The rupee was another concern, although BofA said recent inflows of around $136 billion should provide support to the currency and maintained an appreciation bias.
Weak monsoon conditions were also among the risks, with the current rainfall deficit at 13 per cent, close to the 15 per cent worst-case scenario previously projected by the brokerage.
BofA also expects limited further acceleration in aluminium and copper prices. On monetary policy, its economist expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points by December 2026, compared with around 45 basis points currently priced by swap markets.
The three remaining risks include a possible surge in primary market issuances, with around $30 billion expected between September and December and issuance activity likely to peak in October. Another risk is the possibility of 75 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes, compared with around 35 basis points currently priced by markets. Over the longer term, BofA also flagged the potential impact of artificial intelligence-led disruption on employment in India.
Business
India okays 18 hours a day power supply to Nepal till Dec 31

New Delhi, Sep 14: India has approved a proposal to supply power to Nepal for 18 hours a day till December 31 this year, following the extensive damage caused to the Himalayan country’s hydropower projects in the devastating flash floods, an official statement said on Monday.
“The Ministry of Power has accorded approval for the export of power, for 18 hours a day to Nepal Electricity Authority till December 31, 2026,” according to the statement.
Approval has been given for up to 600MW of export through Muzaffarpur-Dhalkebar 400 kV D/c line and up to 54 MW through Tanakpur-Mahendranagar 132 kV S/c line. The quantum of power to be exported from January 2027 will be reviewed in December, 2026, the statement said.
The recent floods have caused significant damage to hydropower infrastructure in Nepal, reducing its domestic power generation capacity and creating an additional requirement for electricity.
The approval will help Nepal meet its power requirements during this difficult period and further strengthen the close and longstanding energy cooperation between India and Nepal, the statement explained.
“India remains committed to supporting Nepal and strengthening bilateral cooperation in the energy sector,” the statement added.
India also intensified its humanitarian assistance to Nepal in the wake of the floods, delivering relief material and deploying personnel to support search, rescue, and forensic operations. Indian Air Force aircraft were used to carry relief and rescue supplies to Kathmandu.
The country also dispatched specialised technical gear, including mud rescue suits, gas detectors, breathing apparatus, inflatable walkways, portable generators, lighting towers, and dewatering pumps. India has provided DNA kits, reagents, and equipment for DNA profiling to aid in victim identification.
Meanwhile, the death toll from flash floods has risen to 1,386, with more bodies recovered from eight affected districts.
The floods, triggered by an ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border on August 26, devastated towns and villages in northern and central Nepal.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, 104 of the recovered bodies have so far been identified and handed over to families. Around 5,130 people are still reported missing.
Security forces continue search and rescue operations. More than 13,700 people have been rescued so far, while 339 people are undergoing treatment in hospitals.
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