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Moody’s Analytics sees another 60-80 bps hike in repo rate this year

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Hours after the Reserve Bank of India raised key lending rates, or repo rate, by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, global financial services company Moody’s Analytics said the central bank could hike the repo rate by another 60 to 80 basis points through the rest of the year.

It, however, maintained that these rate increases will need to be carefully calibrated to meet the central bank’s increasingly difficult objectives of supporting growth and taming inflation.

The lastest hike of 50 basis points was marginally above its expectations of a 40-basis point rate hike, Moody’s said in a report.

Wednesday’s repo rate hike followed a surprise off-cycle rate hike of 40 basis points in May that broke a pandemic-driven pause on interest rates and marked the first hike since August 2018.

“High costs from elevated and volatile global oil prices, higher input costs owing to industry-specific shortages, trade restrictions as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a domestic heat wave have driven up consumer prices,” the report said.

Quoting the central bank, the report said that although domestic demand had gained some traction and the economy remained resilient in the face of these headwinds, inflation pressures have become more broad-based and that upside risks to inflation have “materialised earlier than anticipated”.

It added that fiscal measures announced in May, including excise duty cuts on fuels, increased subsidies on certain imported raw materials and cooking gas, and export restrictions on sugar and wheat, are intended to aid in tackling inflation.

“However, it’s unlikely that these measures can do much to moderate inflation. And given that select food, grain, and vegetable supplies could see continued volatility before stabilising, a substantial cooling is not expected. Further, the impending pickup in goods and services spending will add to demand-driven pressures and aggravate price increases in coming months.”

The months ahead will likely see more fiscal and monetary policy coordination to mitigate the overall inflation hit to economic growth, the report added.

India’s retail inflation has been above RBI’s 6 per cent tolerance level for four months in a row, while wholesale inflation in the country has been in double digit for over a year now.

India’s retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level of 6 per cent till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent, said Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday in his remarks on the outcome of the monetary policy review meeting.

For FY23, RBI sees overall inflation at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.

Coming to growth, India’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, with 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 per cent in Q3, and 4.0 per cent in Q4, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.

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Gold surges 1.83 pc this week amid persistent tensions in Strait of Hormuz

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New Delhi, May 9: Gold prices rose 1.83 per cent during the week over persistent geopolitical uncertainty and volatile crude prices.

On Friday, MCX gold June futures gained 0.04 per cent while MCX silver May futures surged 1.34 per cent. Currently gold futures stand at Rs 1,52,589, while silver futures at Rs 2,61,999 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,51,078 on Friday up from Rs 1,48,357 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

Precious metals continued to rise for four consecutive sessions as optimism over a potential US‑Iran peace agreement and a softer US dollar outweighed a stronger‑than‑expected US jobs report.

US jobs data showed that employment rose more than forecast in April while the unemployment rate held at 4.3 per cent, underscoring resilience in the labour market and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

Central banks maintaining interest rates higher for longer, could pressure non-yielding assets like gold.

In international markets, Comex gold climbed about $50 to a session high of $4,760 per troy ounce, posting a weekly gain near 1.5 per cent. Market participants said the prospect of easing regional tensions and a weaker dollar supported demand for non‑yielding bullion.

Gold and silver have fallen nearly 10 per cent since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28.

The broader safe-haven structure remains intact, though the pace of the rally has moderated as the dollar steadies and broader risk sentiment shows tentative signs of improvement, market participants said.

Despite commodities flow disruption in the Strait of Hormuz dominating the macro narrative, markets are also entering a phase of technical consolidation following the sharp swings witnessed in recent weeks, analysts said.

Precious metals are witnessing mixed price action, with gold and silver attempting to stabilise after recent corrective pressure.

West Asian tensions were rekindled on Thursday after US and Iranian forces exchanged attacks near the strait, though US officials said the ceasefire remained in place.

Immediate resistance for MCX Gold is placed at Rs 1,54,000–Rs 1,55,500, and immediate support is seen near Rs 1,50,000–Rs 1,48,000, analysts said.

For MCX Silver, the Rs 2,65,000 zone acts as immediate resistance, and the Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,58,000 zone now serves as immediate support, they added.

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Apple to invest Rs 100 crore in India’s renewable energy infrastructure

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New Delhi, May 7: US tech giant Apple has announced an investment of Rs 100 crore to support the development of renewable energy infrastructure in India as part of its broader sustainability and carbon neutrality goals.

The company said the investment will be made in collaboration with CleanMax, one of India’s leading renewable energy developers, to help build more than 150 megawatts of new renewable energy capacity across the country.

According to the iPhone maker, the planned capacity would be enough to power nearly 1.5 lakh Indian households annually and may be expanded further in the coming years.

The initiative is aimed at strengthening renewable energy adoption across Apple’s supply chain operations in India and supports the company’s target of becoming carbon neutral across its entire footprint by 2030.

“At Apple, our commitment to the environment is also a driving force for innovation across the company and around the world,” said Sarah Chandler, Apple’s Vice President of Environment and Supply Chain Innovation.

“We are proud to expand our efforts to invest in India’s clean energy economy and protect the country’s precious natural resources,” she added.

Moreover, the US-headquartered firm had earlier partnered with CleanMax on rooftop solar projects to power its offices and retail stores in India with 100 per cent renewable energy.

Apart from renewable energy investments, it also announced new partnerships in India focused on reducing plastic pollution and promoting green entrepreneurship.

The company said it is working with WWF-India to support recycling and waste management initiatives to improve material recovery and reducing plastic leakage into ecosystems.

The iPhone maker is also partnering with Acumen to provide grants and mentorship support to early-stage green enterprises working in areas such as waste management, regenerative agriculture, and circular economy solutions.

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Gold, silver prices gain up to 3 pc on weak dollar, oil prices

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Mumbai, Gold and silver traded higher on Wednesday, tracking weakness in oil prices and the dollar index, with both precious metals gaining up to 3 per cent.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5) opened at Rs 1,52,000 per 10 grams, up Rs 2,247 or 1.5 per cent from the previous close of Rs 1,49,753.

At 11:30 am, gold was trading at Rs 1,52,419, up Rs 2,666 or 1.78 per cent. So far in the session, the yellow metal has touched an intraday high of Rs 1,52,450, up Rs 2,697 or 1.8 per cent. At the intraday low, it was still trading higher by Rs 1,900 or 1.26 per cent at Rs 1,51,653.

Meanwhile, silver futures (July 3) opened at Rs 2,49,316 per kg — also the intraday low so far — a jump of Rs 5,000 or 2.04 per cent from the previous close. At the time of filing the report, it was trading at Rs 2,51,699, up Rs 7,383 or 3.02 per cent.

In the international market as well, precious metals were trading higher. COMEX gold was up 1.92 per cent at $4,656 per ounce, while silver gained 3.45 per cent to $76.12 per ounce.

Analysts said gold prices edged higher after recovering from a one-month low, supported by easing concerns over US-Iran tensions and some stability in oil prices.

However, elevated crude prices and expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment continue to cap gains in bullion, they added.

In addition, the dollar index slipped 0.34 per cent to 97.97. The dollar index measures the US dollar’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, the euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

Typically, a weaker dollar supports prices of precious metals like gold and silver.

On Tuesday, international oil benchmark Brent crude fell 2.30 per cent to $107.33 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined 3 per cent to $99.12 per barrel.

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