Business
Goldman Sachs says Paytm’s current share price is a compelling entry point, ICICI Securities issue Buy rating
Paytm continues to get the confidence of top brokerages, who are bullish about the companys “immense growth potential”. Goldman Sachs pointed out the strong growth potential for Paytms lending business, saying the firm will hit $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22.
Analysts believe Paytm’s ESOP costs will gradually reduce and are currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally ICICI Securities report said that by FY26, Paytm’s monthly transacting users are likely to double
Paytm, India’s leading digital payments and financial services, continues to get ‘Buy’ calls from top brokerages. After Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Dolat Capital, ICICI Securities has also issued a Buy rating for Paytm.
Goldman Sachs had given Paytm a Buy rating, with a target price of Rs 460 on February 7. On Monday, the investment bank reiterated its Buy rating, pointing out key notes for investors. The report said that “the current share price offers a compelling entry point into India’s largest and amongst the fastest growing fintech platforms”.
ICICI Securities has now initiated coverage for Paytm and highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), giving a “Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,362.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that Paytm continues to gain market share across both UPI and non-UPI payments, besides strong growth in lending business. It said Paytm’s net payments take rate or spreads have, defined as revenue less payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) have been improving.
“Paytm’s net payments take rate (or spreads, defined as revenue less payment processing charges as a proportion of GMV) have been improving. From 8 bps in 3QFY22, we forecast spreads to widen to 11 bps by FY26E as a result of Paytm’s scale benefits; increasing share of UPI for wallet money addition; rising share of wallet for online payments (vs in-store, which have zero MDR); and rising share of device rental revenues,” the brokerage noted.
Paytm’s ESOP costs to gradually reduce, currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally.
Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) costs will reduce gradually and is currently at par with other listed tech companies in India as well as globally.
“We forecast ESOP charge for Paytm to be highest (at Rs 3.9 billion per quarter) for first two years (when the first tranche vests, per Paytm), and then gradually reduce over the next three years. Paytm also has about 15 million un-granted options and per our estimate, the total share count could increase by 46 million (or 7 per cent of current outstanding), if all options were to be vested/granted,” said the Goldman Sachs note.
“We note that as a proportion of total operating expenses, Paytm’s ESOP cost is not significantly different vs other global platforms such as Airbnb and DoorDash, as well as recently listed India internet peers such as Zomato and PB Fintech.”
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities in its note called out Paytm’s immense growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), buoyed by its leadership position in India’s digital payments ecosystem.
The brokerage said Paytm’s digital payments business has the potential to grow strongly in future, reflecting its “sizeable two-sided digital ecosystem with proven leadership in payments”.
“Paytm is well ahead in the race of digitisation, building a robust full stack technology suite integrated across the ecosystem with distinct features, high success rates, easy user interface, and customer convenience. It has an early mover advantage in rolling out wallet, FASTag, and is ahead of the curve in (skill based) online gaming, too,” said the note by ICICI Securities.
During the October-December quarter, the company saw its revenues jump by 89 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1,456 crore, EBITDA losses (before ESOP expense) came down to Rs 393 crore from Rs 488 crore during the same quarter in the previous year.
In its latest filing with the stock exchange, Paytm had shared its highest ever growth in monthly transacting users to 68.9 million users. Now, it seems analysts are bullish about this growth momentum to continue. ICICI Securities highlighted that Paytm’s monthly transacting user base (MTUs) is likely to double over FY22-26E to more than 120 million.
Paytm had said that in Q3 FY 22, its merchant payments-led GMV stood at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast that Paytm’s merchant GMV would grow at 36 per cent CAGR over FY22-26E to reach Rs 30 trillion and within this, MDR linked GMV is estimated to grow at more than 25 per cent.
The brokerage noted that Paytm’s contribution margin has potential to further improve 40 per cent-46 per cent by FY24E/FY26E.
“Aided by this contribution margin, there is some visibility of EBITDA getting into positive territory post FY26E. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding non-cash ESOP charges) will turn positive by FY26,” it added.
Both Goldman Sachs and ICICI Securities believe that Paytm’s lending business, in which it partners financial institutions to provide loans on its platform, has the potential to grow rapidly in the medium term.
Goldman Sachs said: “We believe Paytm will be able to continue to scale its lending portfolio, and forecast $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22. Paytm has continued to add new partners for its lending products over the last few quarters, suggesting to us that lenders are finding value in this partnership.”
Paytm’s lending business witnessed record growth in January 2022, maintaining the positive trend witnessed in the Q3 FY 22 earnings. Last month, Paytm registered 1.9 million loan disbursals, marking a y-o-y growth of 331 per cent; aggregating to a total value of Rs 921 crore (y-o-y growth of 334%). This also included a staggering growth in its Buy Now, Pay Later product – Paytm Postpaid.
“For Paytm’s BNPL product, 30 per cent + of the monthly sign-ups (Dec ’21 quarter) were new-to-credit customers, helping expand the credit base for Paytm’s financial partners. Per Paytm, performance of the company’s loan portfolio has resulted in higher confidence from lenders to increase the scale of this business,” it added.
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities also shared an optimistic outlook about Paytm’s lending business, estimating 18-19 million consumers (15 per cent of MTUs), and an increasing number of merchants to avail lending products through Paytm platform by FY26E.
Sharing a medium-term outlook, it estimated the total lending business revenue to grow at 61 per cent over FY22-26E.
Business
CTI to launch poster campaign in 20 markets around Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan; urges INDIA Bloc to cancel rally

With Diwali approaching, some Delhi traders have expressed concern over the proposed rally at Ramlila Maidan, with the Chamber of Trade and Industry (CTI) on Saturday launching a massive poster campaign urging that business activities in major markets should not be disrupted during the peak festive season and urging the INDIA Bloc to cancel its ‘Chalo Delhi’ rally.
The CTI, an apex body representing traders and entrepreneurs in Delhi, appealed to Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, saying that traders’ businesses also run on mutual trust, love and affection with their customers.
“You often say that you run shops of love in the market of hatred. Our shops also run on the basis of mutual trust, love and affection with our customers. Therefore, we humbly request you not to sacrifice our shops of love and business for a rally during the peak season of India’s biggest festival, Diwali,” the CTI said.
CTI has announced that starting on Saturday, these posters will be put up in 20 major wholesale markets within a 5-km radius of Ramlila Maidan.
CTI Chairman Brijesh Goyal said the poster campaign was intended to highlight the concerns of traders whose businesses could be affected by traffic restrictions and congestion around the rally venue.
“You talked about opening ‘shops of love’ during the Bharat Jodo Yatra, but in Delhi, our 300-year-old shops of love are being closed because of the rally,” Goyal said.
He cited businesses ranging from the famous parantha shops of Chandni Chowk and spice traders of Khari Baoli to bangle and bindi sellers in Sadar Bazaar, lehenga shops in Chandni Chowk and other traditional establishments.
“Each shop supports the families of 10 to 20 people,” he added.
The CTI said it would put up posters in major wholesale markets located within a five-km radius of Ramlila Maidan.
These include Chandni Chowk, Sadar Bazaar, Khari Baoli, Bhagirath Palace, Naya Bazaar, Chawri Bazaar, Kashmiri Gate, Daryaganj, Connaught Place, Karol Bagh, Nabi Karim, Paharganj, Ajmeri Gate, Lahori Gate, Janpath, Palika Bazaar, Ballimaran and Kinari Bazaar.
According to the traders’ body, a large gathering at Ramlila Maidan could lead to traffic congestion and restrictions in the surrounding markets.
Goyal said the proposed rally, scheduled just days before Dhanteras, could affect festive business activities.
He expressed concern that the arrival of a large number of people and around 20,000 vehicles could result in traffic jams across central Delhi and disrupt commercial activity.
The CTI claimed that the festive business of 2 million traders and the livelihoods of 7.5 million people dependent on these markets could be affected if restrictions were imposed during the peak Diwali shopping period.
Business
Axis Trustee warns contempt proceeding against Yes Bank over AT1 bonds

Axis Trustee Services Limited, the trustee for the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds issued by Yes Bank, called upon the private sector lender to reinstate the bonds and take necessary corporate actions within three days, failing which the former would initiate contempt proceedings in Supreme Court against the bank.
The trustee said in a filing that non-compliance will constitute “wilful disobedience by the lender of the Supreme Court’s October 15 judgment”.
Yes Bank said it had responded to the trustee, acknowledging the Supreme Court judgment and reiterating that it was fully committed to acting in accordance with the ruling and applicable law, according to an exchange filing.
The Bank replied to the Trustee that it is cognisant of the matters and is examining the SC Judgment and its implications in detail.
“The Bank will take all such steps and measures as are necessary and permissible under applicable law,” Yes Bank said.
“Should the Bank fail to comply with the said judgment as called upon above within the stipulated period, we shall be constrained to initiate proceedings for contempt before the SC, against the Bank and its directors and officers responsible for compliance with the said judgment, without any further notice, entirely at the Bank’s risk as to costs and consequences,” Axis Trustee said in its letter to Yes Bank.
Bank has merely stated that it is “examining the judgment in detail, including evaluating all available options and suitable actions or steps going forward,” the trustee said, adding that under the guise of evaluating its options, the bank should not withhold compliance with the said judgment.
Yes Bank rejected the allegation in its response letter, clarifying that it had not wilfully disobeyed the court.
“The Bank does not accept the characterisation in your Letter of its conduct as wilful disobedience and the assertions in your Letter are baseless and without merit,” it said.
The Supreme Court had, on October 15, upheld the Bombay High Court’s decision to set aside Yes Bank’s Rs 8,415 crore AT1 bond write-off carried out in March 2020. It ruled that the bank’s administrator had acted outside its authority and the applicable regulatory framework.
Axis Trustee challenged the decision of the then administrator of Yes Bank to write down the AT1 bonds in March 2020 before the Bombay High Court.
Business
Tesla rolls out Halloween Mode for ‘Model Y’ in India

Tesla India on Friday said it launched a new software update for Model Y and Model Y L vehicles that adds a range of Halloween-themed features, highlighting the company’s over-the-air (OTA) software update capabilities.
According to the Elon Musk-backed firm, the update allows Tesla vehicles to receive new features and improvements remotely without requiring a visit to a service centre.
Halloween Mode includes a ghost-themed vehicle avatar, Halloween sound effects, special lighting sequences, seasonal vehicle wraps and a themed lock sound, it said.
The update also introduces a ‘Trick or Treat Mode’ which activates sound and lighting effects when visitors approach the vehicle.
Other features include a photobooth function and a voice messaging feature that allows users to speak through the Tesla app and have the vehicle relay messages, the company said.
Tesla said customers can experience the new features at its Experience Centres across India.
The company currently operates those centres in Noida, Delhi, Gurugram, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Mumbai and has approved collision centres in Pune and Ahmedabad.
Earlier in October, Tesla CEO Elon Musk showcased a new version of the Roadster sports car with a prototype briefly lifting off the ground during a demonstration at a SpaceX facility in Texas.
A post on X shared by Musk showed the vehicle navigating an elevated curved track before becoming airborne for a short distance and landing safely, drawing comparisons to a flying car.
The showcase highlighted a specialised propulsion system that combines the electric vehicle platform with high-pressure air tanks and thruster technology.
According to Tesla, the system can generate lift and improve vehicle dynamics through strategically placed thrusters that help control movement while off the ground.
The test prompted enthusiastic reactions from company executives, who described it as evidence that flying-car technology is moving closer to reality. Tesla, however, did not provide a timeline for commercial deployment.
Musk said the vehicle would remain practical for everyday use, although he acknowledged that road legality could depend on local regulations.
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