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Goldman Sachs says Paytm’s current share price is a compelling entry point, ICICI Securities issue Buy rating

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Paytm continues to get the confidence of top brokerages, who are bullish about the companys “immense growth potential”. Goldman Sachs pointed out the strong growth potential for Paytms lending business, saying the firm will hit $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22.

Analysts believe Paytm’s ESOP costs will gradually reduce and are currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally ICICI Securities report said that by FY26, Paytm’s monthly transacting users are likely to double

Paytm, India’s leading digital payments and financial services, continues to get ‘Buy’ calls from top brokerages. After Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Dolat Capital, ICICI Securities has also issued a Buy rating for Paytm.

Goldman Sachs had given Paytm a Buy rating, with a target price of Rs 460 on February 7. On Monday, the investment bank reiterated its Buy rating, pointing out key notes for investors. The report said that “the current share price offers a compelling entry point into India’s largest and amongst the fastest growing fintech platforms”.

ICICI Securities has now initiated coverage for Paytm and highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), giving a “Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,362.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that Paytm continues to gain market share across both UPI and non-UPI payments, besides strong growth in lending business. It said Paytm’s net payments take rate or spreads have, defined as revenue less payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) have been improving.

“Paytm’s net payments take rate (or spreads, defined as revenue less payment processing charges as a proportion of GMV) have been improving. From 8 bps in 3QFY22, we forecast spreads to widen to 11 bps by FY26E as a result of Paytm’s scale benefits; increasing share of UPI for wallet money addition; rising share of wallet for online payments (vs in-store, which have zero MDR); and rising share of device rental revenues,” the brokerage noted.

Paytm’s ESOP costs to gradually reduce, currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally.

Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) costs will reduce gradually and is currently at par with other listed tech companies in India as well as globally.

“We forecast ESOP charge for Paytm to be highest (at Rs 3.9 billion per quarter) for first two years (when the first tranche vests, per Paytm), and then gradually reduce over the next three years. Paytm also has about 15 million un-granted options and per our estimate, the total share count could increase by 46 million (or 7 per cent of current outstanding), if all options were to be vested/granted,” said the Goldman Sachs note.

“We note that as a proportion of total operating expenses, Paytm’s ESOP cost is not significantly different vs other global platforms such as Airbnb and DoorDash, as well as recently listed India internet peers such as Zomato and PB Fintech.”

Meanwhile, ICICI Securities in its note called out Paytm’s immense growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), buoyed by its leadership position in India’s digital payments ecosystem.

The brokerage said Paytm’s digital payments business has the potential to grow strongly in future, reflecting its “sizeable two-sided digital ecosystem with proven leadership in payments”.

“Paytm is well ahead in the race of digitisation, building a robust full stack technology suite integrated across the ecosystem with distinct features, high success rates, easy user interface, and customer convenience. It has an early mover advantage in rolling out wallet, FASTag, and is ahead of the curve in (skill based) online gaming, too,” said the note by ICICI Securities.

During the October-December quarter, the company saw its revenues jump by 89 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1,456 crore, EBITDA losses (before ESOP expense) came down to Rs 393 crore from Rs 488 crore during the same quarter in the previous year.

In its latest filing with the stock exchange, Paytm had shared its highest ever growth in monthly transacting users to 68.9 million users. Now, it seems analysts are bullish about this growth momentum to continue. ICICI Securities highlighted that Paytm’s monthly transacting user base (MTUs) is likely to double over FY22-26E to more than 120 million.

Paytm had said that in Q3 FY 22, its merchant payments-led GMV stood at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast that Paytm’s merchant GMV would grow at 36 per cent CAGR over FY22-26E to reach Rs 30 trillion and within this, MDR linked GMV is estimated to grow at more than 25 per cent.

The brokerage noted that Paytm’s contribution margin has potential to further improve 40 per cent-46 per cent by FY24E/FY26E.

“Aided by this contribution margin, there is some visibility of EBITDA getting into positive territory post FY26E. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding non-cash ESOP charges) will turn positive by FY26,” it added.

Both Goldman Sachs and ICICI Securities believe that Paytm’s lending business, in which it partners financial institutions to provide loans on its platform, has the potential to grow rapidly in the medium term.

Goldman Sachs said: “We believe Paytm will be able to continue to scale its lending portfolio, and forecast $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22. Paytm has continued to add new partners for its lending products over the last few quarters, suggesting to us that lenders are finding value in this partnership.”

Paytm’s lending business witnessed record growth in January 2022, maintaining the positive trend witnessed in the Q3 FY 22 earnings. Last month, Paytm registered 1.9 million loan disbursals, marking a y-o-y growth of 331 per cent; aggregating to a total value of Rs 921 crore (y-o-y growth of 334%). This also included a staggering growth in its Buy Now, Pay Later product – Paytm Postpaid.

“For Paytm’s BNPL product, 30 per cent + of the monthly sign-ups (Dec ’21 quarter) were new-to-credit customers, helping expand the credit base for Paytm’s financial partners. Per Paytm, performance of the company’s loan portfolio has resulted in higher confidence from lenders to increase the scale of this business,” it added.

Meanwhile, ICICI Securities also shared an optimistic outlook about Paytm’s lending business, estimating 18-19 million consumers (15 per cent of MTUs), and an increasing number of merchants to avail lending products through Paytm platform by FY26E.

Sharing a medium-term outlook, it estimated the total lending business revenue to grow at 61 per cent over FY22-26E.

Business

India‑UAE ties grow into a model for BRICS collaboration: Report

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New Delhi, Sep 14: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and India are broadening a strategic and economic partnership that serves as “an effective model of cooperation within BRICS,” a new report has said.

The partnership is built on a foundation of historic ties, shared interests and major projects that promote trade, investment and logistics connectivity between markets, the report from Gulf Today said.

“The growing UAE-India partnership, reflected in expanding trade, increasingly integrated logistics corridors and cooperation in investment and innovation, provides a practical model of the UAE’s role within BRICS,” the report said.

Further, the partnership also proves UAE’s commitment to exchanging expertise and perspectives and building more integrated and sustainable economic partnerships.

Bilateral trade reached $101.25 billion in FY26, marking the second consecutive year in which trade between the two countries exceeded $100 billion. The UAE and India have set a target to raise bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032.

The partnership is being advanced through initiatives such as Bharat Mart, the Virtual Trade Corridor and cooperation under the India‑Middle East‑Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

“These initiatives are helping strengthen supply chain integration and create new routes for trade and investment flows between the two countries and global markets,” the report noted.

The UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), operational since 2022 was hailed as the first agreement of its kind concluded by the UAE. The agreement has bolstered the flow of goods, services and investment and expanded opportunities for the private sector in both countries.

United Arab Emirates and China were the largest destinations within BRICS, together accounting for 88.50 per cent of India’s electronics exports to the grouping.

The number of Indian companies registered as active members of Dubai Chamber reached 85,841 by the end of June 2026 after 7,579 new Indian firms joined in the first half of the year, marking a year‑on‑year increase of 15 per cent, another report said.

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BofA turns bullish on Indian equities, sees Nifty at 26,200 by December 2026

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Mumbai, Sep 14: The Nifty could climb to 26,200 by December 2026, implying an upside of around 12 per cent from current levels, as Bank of America (BofA) Securities has turned constructive on Indian equities after maintaining a cautious stance for nearly two years.

In its latest strategy report, BofA said it had remained cautious on Indian stocks since August 2024 and had identified eight key risks that could keep the market volatile. However, five of those risks have either already played out or have been largely priced into the market, prompting the brokerage to adopt a more positive stance.

BofA said the three remaining risks could create around 7 per cent downside for the Nifty 50 in its bear-case scenario. In its base case, however, the brokerage sees the index reaching 26,200 by December 2026.

According to BofA, the remaining risks are expected to peak by October 2026, potentially creating room for a sustained market recovery from November.

One of the key risks identified earlier was a sharp rise in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, compared with BofA’s fourth-quarter 2026 estimate of $81 a barrel. The brokerage noted that crude prices have reversed from the $100-a-barrel level seven times over the past seven months.

The rupee was another concern, although BofA said recent inflows of around $136 billion should provide support to the currency and maintained an appreciation bias.

Weak monsoon conditions were also among the risks, with the current rainfall deficit at 13 per cent, close to the 15 per cent worst-case scenario previously projected by the brokerage.

BofA also expects limited further acceleration in aluminium and copper prices. On monetary policy, its economist expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points by December 2026, compared with around 45 basis points currently priced by swap markets.

The three remaining risks include a possible surge in primary market issuances, with around $30 billion expected between September and December and issuance activity likely to peak in October. Another risk is the possibility of 75 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes, compared with around 35 basis points currently priced by markets. Over the longer term, BofA also flagged the potential impact of artificial intelligence-led disruption on employment in India.

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India okays 18 hours a day power supply to Nepal till Dec 31

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New Delhi, Sep 14: India has approved a proposal to supply power to Nepal for 18 hours a day till December 31 this year, following the extensive damage caused to the Himalayan country’s hydropower projects in the devastating flash floods, an official statement said on Monday.

“The Ministry of Power has accorded approval for the export of power, for 18 hours a day to Nepal Electricity Authority till December 31, 2026,” according to the statement.

Approval has been given for up to 600MW of export through Muzaffarpur-Dhalkebar 400 kV D/c line and up to 54 MW through Tanakpur-Mahendranagar 132 kV S/c line. The quantum of power to be exported from January 2027 will be reviewed in December, 2026, the statement said.

The recent floods have caused significant damage to hydropower infrastructure in Nepal, reducing its domestic power generation capacity and creating an additional requirement for electricity.

The approval will help Nepal meet its power requirements during this difficult period and further strengthen the close and longstanding energy cooperation between India and Nepal, the statement explained.

“India remains committed to supporting Nepal and strengthening bilateral cooperation in the energy sector,” the statement added.

India also intensified its humanitarian assistance to Nepal in the wake of the floods, delivering relief material and deploying personnel to support search, rescue, and forensic operations. Indian Air Force aircraft were used to carry relief and rescue supplies to Kathmandu.

The country also dispatched specialised technical gear, including mud rescue suits, gas detectors, breathing apparatus, inflatable walkways, portable generators, lighting towers, and dewatering pumps. India has provided DNA kits, reagents, and equipment for DNA profiling to aid in victim identification.

Meanwhile, the death toll from flash floods has risen to 1,386, with more bodies recovered from eight affected districts.

The floods, triggered by an ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border on August 26, devastated towns and villages in northern and central Nepal.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, 104 of the recovered bodies have so far been identified and handed over to families. Around 5,130 people are still reported missing.

Security forces continue search and rescue operations. More than 13,700 people have been rescued so far, while 339 people are undergoing treatment in hospitals.

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