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Goldman Sachs says Paytm’s current share price is a compelling entry point, ICICI Securities issue Buy rating

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Paytm continues to get the confidence of top brokerages, who are bullish about the companys “immense growth potential”. Goldman Sachs pointed out the strong growth potential for Paytms lending business, saying the firm will hit $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22.

Analysts believe Paytm’s ESOP costs will gradually reduce and are currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally ICICI Securities report said that by FY26, Paytm’s monthly transacting users are likely to double

Paytm, India’s leading digital payments and financial services, continues to get ‘Buy’ calls from top brokerages. After Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Dolat Capital, ICICI Securities has also issued a Buy rating for Paytm.

Goldman Sachs had given Paytm a Buy rating, with a target price of Rs 460 on February 7. On Monday, the investment bank reiterated its Buy rating, pointing out key notes for investors. The report said that “the current share price offers a compelling entry point into India’s largest and amongst the fastest growing fintech platforms”.

ICICI Securities has now initiated coverage for Paytm and highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), giving a “Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,362.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that Paytm continues to gain market share across both UPI and non-UPI payments, besides strong growth in lending business. It said Paytm’s net payments take rate or spreads have, defined as revenue less payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) have been improving.

“Paytm’s net payments take rate (or spreads, defined as revenue less payment processing charges as a proportion of GMV) have been improving. From 8 bps in 3QFY22, we forecast spreads to widen to 11 bps by FY26E as a result of Paytm’s scale benefits; increasing share of UPI for wallet money addition; rising share of wallet for online payments (vs in-store, which have zero MDR); and rising share of device rental revenues,” the brokerage noted.

Paytm’s ESOP costs to gradually reduce, currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally.

Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) costs will reduce gradually and is currently at par with other listed tech companies in India as well as globally.

“We forecast ESOP charge for Paytm to be highest (at Rs 3.9 billion per quarter) for first two years (when the first tranche vests, per Paytm), and then gradually reduce over the next three years. Paytm also has about 15 million un-granted options and per our estimate, the total share count could increase by 46 million (or 7 per cent of current outstanding), if all options were to be vested/granted,” said the Goldman Sachs note.

“We note that as a proportion of total operating expenses, Paytm’s ESOP cost is not significantly different vs other global platforms such as Airbnb and DoorDash, as well as recently listed India internet peers such as Zomato and PB Fintech.”

Meanwhile, ICICI Securities in its note called out Paytm’s immense growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), buoyed by its leadership position in India’s digital payments ecosystem.

The brokerage said Paytm’s digital payments business has the potential to grow strongly in future, reflecting its “sizeable two-sided digital ecosystem with proven leadership in payments”.

“Paytm is well ahead in the race of digitisation, building a robust full stack technology suite integrated across the ecosystem with distinct features, high success rates, easy user interface, and customer convenience. It has an early mover advantage in rolling out wallet, FASTag, and is ahead of the curve in (skill based) online gaming, too,” said the note by ICICI Securities.

During the October-December quarter, the company saw its revenues jump by 89 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1,456 crore, EBITDA losses (before ESOP expense) came down to Rs 393 crore from Rs 488 crore during the same quarter in the previous year.

In its latest filing with the stock exchange, Paytm had shared its highest ever growth in monthly transacting users to 68.9 million users. Now, it seems analysts are bullish about this growth momentum to continue. ICICI Securities highlighted that Paytm’s monthly transacting user base (MTUs) is likely to double over FY22-26E to more than 120 million.

Paytm had said that in Q3 FY 22, its merchant payments-led GMV stood at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast that Paytm’s merchant GMV would grow at 36 per cent CAGR over FY22-26E to reach Rs 30 trillion and within this, MDR linked GMV is estimated to grow at more than 25 per cent.

The brokerage noted that Paytm’s contribution margin has potential to further improve 40 per cent-46 per cent by FY24E/FY26E.

“Aided by this contribution margin, there is some visibility of EBITDA getting into positive territory post FY26E. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding non-cash ESOP charges) will turn positive by FY26,” it added.

Both Goldman Sachs and ICICI Securities believe that Paytm’s lending business, in which it partners financial institutions to provide loans on its platform, has the potential to grow rapidly in the medium term.

Goldman Sachs said: “We believe Paytm will be able to continue to scale its lending portfolio, and forecast $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22. Paytm has continued to add new partners for its lending products over the last few quarters, suggesting to us that lenders are finding value in this partnership.”

Paytm’s lending business witnessed record growth in January 2022, maintaining the positive trend witnessed in the Q3 FY 22 earnings. Last month, Paytm registered 1.9 million loan disbursals, marking a y-o-y growth of 331 per cent; aggregating to a total value of Rs 921 crore (y-o-y growth of 334%). This also included a staggering growth in its Buy Now, Pay Later product – Paytm Postpaid.

“For Paytm’s BNPL product, 30 per cent + of the monthly sign-ups (Dec ’21 quarter) were new-to-credit customers, helping expand the credit base for Paytm’s financial partners. Per Paytm, performance of the company’s loan portfolio has resulted in higher confidence from lenders to increase the scale of this business,” it added.

Meanwhile, ICICI Securities also shared an optimistic outlook about Paytm’s lending business, estimating 18-19 million consumers (15 per cent of MTUs), and an increasing number of merchants to avail lending products through Paytm platform by FY26E.

Sharing a medium-term outlook, it estimated the total lending business revenue to grow at 61 per cent over FY22-26E.

Business

G7 Summit: PM Modi, Prez Trump discussed West Asia, India-US trade deal & bilateral cooperation across sectors: MEA

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Evian (France), June 18: The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said on Thursday in an official statement that Prime Minister Modi met the US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France’s Evian and discussed end of West Asia conflict, significant progress in the India-US interim trade deal and bilateral cooperation in terms of defence, strategic technologies, energy, and trade sectors between the two countries.

Prime Minister Modi commended President Trump for his efforts that had resulted in an understanding to end the ongoing conflict in West Asia and restore peace and stability across the broader region, the MEA statement said.

The Prime Minister also underlined the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation and unimpeded commerce in the Strait of Hormuz and the need to ensure the safety of seafarer, the MEA statement added.

Taking to his official social media plaform X, PM Modi said: “Pleased to meet President Trump in Evian. We reviewed the sustained progress in our bilateral cooperation in trade, energy, defence, technology and people-to-people ties. Conveyed India’s appreciation on the progress in the efforts for restoring peace and stability in West Asia. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is vital for the global economy. Reiterated the importance of ensuring the safety and security of civilians, including seafarers.”

“Both PM Modi and President Trump reviewed the substantial progress achieved under the India–US COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce and Technology) since their meeting in Washington D.C. in February 2025,” the MEA said in the statement.

The two leaders welcomed key developments across the defence, strategic technologies, energy, and bilateral trade sectors, the MEA statement added.

“The leaders noted with particular satisfaction the significant progress made in negotiations towards an interim Bilateral Trade Agreement and instructed their officials to work towards a “balanced, mutually beneficial, and commercially meaningful agreement at the earliest”. The US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, will be visiting India next week in this connection.”

“Prime Minister Modi and President Trump reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership and advancing cooperation across all domains for the mutual benefit of the two countries and their people,” the MEA added.

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Indian markets trade flat in early deals amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, June 18: Indian equity markets traded flat on Thursday in morning trade amid mixed global cues as investors and traders assessed indications that the US Federal Reserve may still raise borrowing costs later this year, despite the benefits of lower oil prices and the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged.

Sensex was trading at 77,095.99, down 59 points or 0.08 per cent in early trade, while Nifty was at 24,076.95, down 8.75 points or 0.04 per cent.

Sector-wise, IT stocks remained under pressure, with Nifty IT declining 1.70 per cent. In contrast, Nifty Consumer Durables and Nifty FMCG rose 0.31 per cent each, while Nifty Metal advanced 0.25 per cent and Nifty Chemicals gained 0.21 per cent.

From the Nifty pack, Infosys, HCLTech, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv were the top losers.

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, while indicating that further rate hikes remain possible this year as inflation continues to stay above its 2 per cent target.

According to market experts, Indian markets will not be unduly influenced by developments on the Fed rate front.

“In the near term, the market will remain resilient, supported by the crash in Brent crude to around $78 levels. The rupee is stable at around the 94.52 level,” they said.

Analysts stated that FII selling has tapered off, as expected, and that FIIs turned buyers yesterday, though in limited quantities. Brent crude prices at around $78 levels and stability in the rupee are big positives from the market perspective. Bank Nifty will remain strong with an upward bias.

Meanwhile, international oil benchmark Brent crude declined 1.64 per cent to $78.24 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped 2 per cent to $75 per barrel.

In Asian markets, indices showed a mixed trend. Japan’s Nikkei traded over 1 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was trading around 2 per cent lower. South Korea’s KOSPI was up more than 1 per cent, while Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite and China’s Shanghai Composite declined by up to 1 per cent.

Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended lower, with the S&P 500 decreasing 1.21 per cent and the Nasdaq closing 1.34 per cent down.

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Sensex, Nifty trade flat as crude oil declines, monsoon remains in focus

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Mumbai, June 17: Domestic equity benchmarks traded flat in morning session on Wednesday after a three-day rally driven by lower crude oil prices and optimism over a US-Iran peace deal.

Sensex was trading at 76,817.58, up 8.58 points or 0.01 per cent, while Nifty was at 23,988, down 1 point in early trade.

Earlier in the day, the 30-share index opened higher, rising 284.69 points or 0.37 per cent to hit an intraday high of 77,093.17. The 50-script basket began the day at 24,044.50, up 58.89 points or 0.24 per cent.

On the sectoral front, Nifty Consumer Durables was the top performer, gaining 1.26 per cent, followed by Nifty IT and Nifty Media.

In addition, healthcare and pharma stocks remained in demand, with Nifty Pharma advancing 0.24 per cent and Nifty Healthcare rising 0.18 per cent.

In contrast, selling pressure was visible in metal and realty stocks. Nifty Metal fell 0.87 per cent, while Nifty Realty declined 0.68 per cent. Nifty Auto, Private Bank and PSU Bank indices also traded in the red.

Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries, NTPC, Trent, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Axis Bank were among the top losers.

According to market experts, two factors are likely to influence market trends in the near term — one positive and the other negative.

“The positive factor is the steady and sharp decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude has fallen by around 16 per cent over the last five days to about $79 per barrel, easing concerns over a widening balance of payments deficit in India,” they said.

The negative factor is the deficient monsoon, which is raising concerns about food inflation. However, experts noted that monsoon activity could improve in the coming days, as has happened in the past, easing such concerns.

The positive trend is likely to continue as the rupee has been steadily strengthening and could appreciate further, experts added.

On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude declined 0.72 per cent to $78.39 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude decreased almost 1 per cent to $75.35.

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