Business
Goldman Sachs says Paytm’s current share price is a compelling entry point, ICICI Securities issue Buy rating
Paytm continues to get the confidence of top brokerages, who are bullish about the companys “immense growth potential”. Goldman Sachs pointed out the strong growth potential for Paytms lending business, saying the firm will hit $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22.
Analysts believe Paytm’s ESOP costs will gradually reduce and are currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally ICICI Securities report said that by FY26, Paytm’s monthly transacting users are likely to double
Paytm, India’s leading digital payments and financial services, continues to get ‘Buy’ calls from top brokerages. After Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Dolat Capital, ICICI Securities has also issued a Buy rating for Paytm.
Goldman Sachs had given Paytm a Buy rating, with a target price of Rs 460 on February 7. On Monday, the investment bank reiterated its Buy rating, pointing out key notes for investors. The report said that “the current share price offers a compelling entry point into India’s largest and amongst the fastest growing fintech platforms”.
ICICI Securities has now initiated coverage for Paytm and highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), giving a “Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,362.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that Paytm continues to gain market share across both UPI and non-UPI payments, besides strong growth in lending business. It said Paytm’s net payments take rate or spreads have, defined as revenue less payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) have been improving.
“Paytm’s net payments take rate (or spreads, defined as revenue less payment processing charges as a proportion of GMV) have been improving. From 8 bps in 3QFY22, we forecast spreads to widen to 11 bps by FY26E as a result of Paytm’s scale benefits; increasing share of UPI for wallet money addition; rising share of wallet for online payments (vs in-store, which have zero MDR); and rising share of device rental revenues,” the brokerage noted.
Paytm’s ESOP costs to gradually reduce, currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally.
Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) costs will reduce gradually and is currently at par with other listed tech companies in India as well as globally.
“We forecast ESOP charge for Paytm to be highest (at Rs 3.9 billion per quarter) for first two years (when the first tranche vests, per Paytm), and then gradually reduce over the next three years. Paytm also has about 15 million un-granted options and per our estimate, the total share count could increase by 46 million (or 7 per cent of current outstanding), if all options were to be vested/granted,” said the Goldman Sachs note.
“We note that as a proportion of total operating expenses, Paytm’s ESOP cost is not significantly different vs other global platforms such as Airbnb and DoorDash, as well as recently listed India internet peers such as Zomato and PB Fintech.”
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities in its note called out Paytm’s immense growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), buoyed by its leadership position in India’s digital payments ecosystem.
The brokerage said Paytm’s digital payments business has the potential to grow strongly in future, reflecting its “sizeable two-sided digital ecosystem with proven leadership in payments”.
“Paytm is well ahead in the race of digitisation, building a robust full stack technology suite integrated across the ecosystem with distinct features, high success rates, easy user interface, and customer convenience. It has an early mover advantage in rolling out wallet, FASTag, and is ahead of the curve in (skill based) online gaming, too,” said the note by ICICI Securities.
During the October-December quarter, the company saw its revenues jump by 89 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1,456 crore, EBITDA losses (before ESOP expense) came down to Rs 393 crore from Rs 488 crore during the same quarter in the previous year.
In its latest filing with the stock exchange, Paytm had shared its highest ever growth in monthly transacting users to 68.9 million users. Now, it seems analysts are bullish about this growth momentum to continue. ICICI Securities highlighted that Paytm’s monthly transacting user base (MTUs) is likely to double over FY22-26E to more than 120 million.
Paytm had said that in Q3 FY 22, its merchant payments-led GMV stood at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast that Paytm’s merchant GMV would grow at 36 per cent CAGR over FY22-26E to reach Rs 30 trillion and within this, MDR linked GMV is estimated to grow at more than 25 per cent.
The brokerage noted that Paytm’s contribution margin has potential to further improve 40 per cent-46 per cent by FY24E/FY26E.
“Aided by this contribution margin, there is some visibility of EBITDA getting into positive territory post FY26E. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding non-cash ESOP charges) will turn positive by FY26,” it added.
Both Goldman Sachs and ICICI Securities believe that Paytm’s lending business, in which it partners financial institutions to provide loans on its platform, has the potential to grow rapidly in the medium term.
Goldman Sachs said: “We believe Paytm will be able to continue to scale its lending portfolio, and forecast $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22. Paytm has continued to add new partners for its lending products over the last few quarters, suggesting to us that lenders are finding value in this partnership.”
Paytm’s lending business witnessed record growth in January 2022, maintaining the positive trend witnessed in the Q3 FY 22 earnings. Last month, Paytm registered 1.9 million loan disbursals, marking a y-o-y growth of 331 per cent; aggregating to a total value of Rs 921 crore (y-o-y growth of 334%). This also included a staggering growth in its Buy Now, Pay Later product – Paytm Postpaid.
“For Paytm’s BNPL product, 30 per cent + of the monthly sign-ups (Dec ’21 quarter) were new-to-credit customers, helping expand the credit base for Paytm’s financial partners. Per Paytm, performance of the company’s loan portfolio has resulted in higher confidence from lenders to increase the scale of this business,” it added.
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities also shared an optimistic outlook about Paytm’s lending business, estimating 18-19 million consumers (15 per cent of MTUs), and an increasing number of merchants to avail lending products through Paytm platform by FY26E.
Sharing a medium-term outlook, it estimated the total lending business revenue to grow at 61 per cent over FY22-26E.
Business
PM Modi invites New Zealand investors to partner India in key sectors

Auckland, July 11: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday invited New Zealand investors and business houses to partner India in infrastructure development, civil aviation, logistics, clean energy, urban mobility, water management, waste management and digital economy sectors.
Hailing India’s vibrant startup ecosystem, PM Modi called for closer engagement between the private sectors of both countries in the fields of innovation, fintech and emerging technologies.
Addressing a select group of CEOs and business leaders, PM Modi noted that New Zealand’s strengths in dairy science, horticulture, and forestry, and India’s consumer market, food parks and agri-tech talent should come together to create global food value chains.
The Prime Minister encouraged businesses to expand investment and commercial partnerships and help realise the target of doubling bilateral trade to 7 billion New Zealand dollars (approximately Rs 35,000 crore) by 2030.
PM Modi emphasised that India-New Zealand economic partnership could become a model for inclusive and sustainable trade and a platform for innovation and prosperity.
In the presence of New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the event, PM Modi said India and New Zealand are bound by shared democratic values, respect for the rule of law, diversity, and a common commitment to sustainable development, providing a strong foundation for an ambitious and forward-looking economic partnership.
He described the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as a landmark deal that would add depth and dynamism to the bilateral economic ties, and open new opportunities for market access, investment, services, technology and talent mobility.
According to an official statement, PM Modi also underscored that India’s sustained high growth coupled with young and skilled workforce, expanding middle class, digital revolution, next-generation infrastructure push, and continuing economic reforms, offer significant opportunities for trade, investment, and innovation for companies in New Zealand.
The Prime Minister noted that political stability and sustained growth path has positioned India as a significant contributor to global growth.
Business
Nifty, Sensex post mild weekly loss over escalating West Asia tensions

Mumbai, July 11: After rallying for four consecutive weeks, the Indian equity benchmarks posted mild weekly loss, as escalating tensions in West Asia sent crude prices higher.
Nifty lost 0.26 per cent during the week and edged up 1.02 per cent on the last trading day to reach 24,206. At close, Sensex was up 827 points, or 1.08 per cent, at 77,569. It lost 0.25 per cent during the week.
Indian equities experienced a volatile week, with early optimism giving way to a sharp bout of risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions.
Investor sentiment weakened after fresh military strikes and concerns over the progress of the US–Iran peace negotiations triggered a risk-off mood across global markets.
“However, the sell-off proved to be short-lived, as investor sentiment improved markedly following encouraging Q1 FY27 business updates from the banking and IT sectors, which provided a constructive backdrop for the upcoming earnings season,” an analyst said.
Indian equities gradually recovered in the latter half of the week as crude oil prices declined from nearly $76 per barrel to the $71–72 range, global technology stocks rebounded, and optimism surrounding the ongoing diplomatic discussions helped improve overall market sentiment.
Sustained earnings outperformance in Q1FY27 is likely to reinforce confidence in the FY27 corporate earnings outlook which could help catalyse a recovery in FII inflows, they said.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers through most of the trading sessions, ending the week with net inflows of approximately Rs 4,670 crore.
On the sectoral front, real estate, consumer durables, and IT outperformed, whereas media, FMCG and chemicals lagged. Mid and small-cap segments outperformed the broader market, supported by gains in realty, consumer durables, and metal stocks.
Broad market indices showed divergence with benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 added 1.36 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 rallied 1.26 per cent during the week.
Immediate resistance levels for Nifty are placed at the 24,300 level and the 24,100 level is expected to provide immediate support, followed by the 24,000 level.
Also, immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,800–57,700 zone, while resistance is seen at 58,200–58,300 zone.
Investors remain keen on Q1FY27 earnings and the domestic inflation print, US core inflation data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials.
“Despite the hawkish tone of the recent FOMC meeting, easing inflationary pressures and slowing growth across the US, the EU, and China have strengthened expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance,” a market participant said.
Business
Ethanol blending began under UPA; E20 transition after years of testing, consultations: Petroleum Ministry

New Delhi, July 10: India’s ethanol blending programme did not begin under the present government, and the initiative has a long institutional history and milestones, the Petroleum Ministry said on Friday, adding that the transition from E10 to E20 ethanol blending was not based on assumptions, but on years of testing, manufacturer consultations and field experience.
“A pilot ethanol blending programme was launched in 2001, formally announced in 2004, and E5 (5 per cent ethanol blending) was rolled out across several states by 2006. The policy framework was subsequently notified in the Gazette of India in January 2013 during the UPA government. These are matters of public record,” said the ministry in a detailed statement.
India had set a target of achieving 5 per cent ethanol blending across 10 states and union territories. Unfortunately, despite that ambition, blending remained stuck at around 1.5 per cent until 2014, it informed.
“Nobody questioned ethanol as a fuel. That had already been settled globally. The real challenge was how India could produce sufficient quantities of ethanol,” said the Petroleum Ministry.
At that time, India depended almost entirely on sugarcane, a seasonal crop, with an annual ethanol production capacity of roughly 400 crore litres. Such production levels were inadequate even for modest blending targets.
Recognising this constraint, the government fundamentally changed its approach. With the launch of the National Policy on Biofuels in May 2018, the government began creating the ecosystem necessary to produce ethanol at scale. This became a genuine whole-of-government mission.
“The Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Department of Food & Public Distribution, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Ministry of Heavy Industries, Indian Railways and several other ministries worked in close coordination to expand feedstocks, build infrastructure, support technology, align logistics, create demand certainty and encourage investment,” said the official statement.
It further explained that a landmark step came in August 2021, when India’s Oil Marketing Companies — IOCL, BPCL and HPCL — issued expressions of interest for establishing Dedicated Ethanol Plants (DEPs) in ethanol-deficit regions.
These projects transformed the investment landscape because they offered assured long-term purchase agreements by Oil Marketing Companies; tripartite financing arrangements with public sector banks through escrow mechanisms, substantially reducing investment risk; mandatory supply of ethanol exclusively for the Ethanol Blended Petrol Programme; and these plants naturally required nearly two years to come on stream.
Another important milestone came in June 2021 when NITI Aayog published its comprehensive roadmap about ethanol blending after extensive consultation with automobile manufacturers, oil companies, agricultural experts and other stakeholders.
The report highlighted not only the environmental and energy security benefits of ethanol but also the transformational impact on rural incomes and the agricultural economy.
At that stage, India’s requirement for 10 per cent blending was 500-600 crore litres of ethanol annually. As fresh investments materialised and production capacity expanded, it became evident that the country would soon be capable of producing nearly 1,200 crore litres.
Once the supply side had been secured, it became both logical and responsible to aspire for 20 per cent blending. So, the suggestion that India ‘rushed’ into ethanol blending is simply not borne out by facts, said the ministry.
This has been a journey spanning over two decades from pilot projects in 2001, policy notification in 2013, institutional reforms after 2018, massive investments beginning in 2021, and then a carefully calibrated, phased increase in blending levels.
All stakeholders, including automobile manufacturing companies, testing agencies, OMCs, DFPD, etc., were consulted before rollout, according to the statement.
Before E20 was rolled out, the government undertook several rounds of detailed consultations with all stakeholders, such as automobile manufacturers, technical experts, testing agencies and others to ensure readiness across the ecosystem.
Maruti Suzuki serviced 2.84 crore vehicles during FY 2025-26, including 1.5 crore older, non-E20-certified vehicles, and reported no E20-linked corrosion, abnormal wear or component-life damage.
Hero MotoCorp has reported similar field experience. This real-world evidence is far more reliable than isolated anecdotes.
Advising consumers not to be misled by misinformation, scaremongering or unverified content circulating on social media, the ministry said that ethanol and blended petrol conform to strict BIS specifications and undergo quality checks at every stage from the distillery to the depot to the retail outlet.
“Any procedural lapse anywhere in the supply chain should be dealt with firmly. Chief Secretaries of the states have been requested to ensure strict enforcement and take an iron hand against any instance of adulteration. There can be zero tolerance for lapses that compromise fuel quality,” the ministry said.
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