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Pakistan, Bangladesh face mounting economic risks as prolonged US-Iran conflict fuels oil price surge

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New Delhi, Aug 2: Pakistan and Bangladesh are among the Asian economies most exposed to the fallout from the prolonged US-Iran conflict, as surging global oil prices threaten to push up inflation, strain public finances and intensify pressure on already fragile economies, according to economists and research firms.

Both countries depend heavily on imported fuel, making them particularly vulnerable to sustained increases in crude oil and diesel prices, according to a report by South China Morning Post.

Analysts warn that limited fuel inventories and weak economic buffers could allow higher global energy costs to feed quickly into domestic prices, raising the cost of transport, electricity and food for millions of households, the report said.

Jamus Lim, Associate Professor of Economics at ESSEC Business School Asia-Pacific cited by the report, said Pakistan and Bangladesh are likely to face significant inflationary pressures in the near term.

He noted that limited inventory buffers mean the impact of higher oil prices would be transmitted relatively quickly through their economies.

Oil markets have already reflected growing concerns over the conflict. Brent crude has climbed sharply over the past month, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has recorded similar gains.

Diesel and other refined fuel products have also posted double-digit increases, adding to concerns over rising energy costs worldwide.

The risks have extended beyond the Gulf region after a drone strike targeted gas vessels at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta, heightening concerns over shipping routes linked to the Suez Canal, one of the key pathways for Saudi oil exports.

For Pakistan and Bangladesh, another energy-price shock could place renewed pressure on currencies, fiscal balances and government subsidy programmes.

Both countries are implementing International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported economic reform programmes that emphasise fiscal discipline, limiting their ability to cushion consumers from higher fuel prices through subsidies.

The conflict, now in its fifth month, has added to uncertainty after US President Donald Trump weighed further military action following Iranian attacks on American military assets in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Oxford Economics has warned that several emerging markets, including Pakistan, Egypt, Mozambique, Nigeria and Kenya, face a combination of geopolitical risks, political uncertainty and rising debt-servicing costs.

According to the research firm, countries such as Pakistan, Mozambique, Kenya, Ghana and Tunisia, which have relatively thin foreign exchange reserve buffers, could experience the sharpest deterioration if the conflict intensifies.

Business

Foreign investors’ buying continues amid strong GDP, earnings growth

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New Delhi, Aug 23: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to sustain the buying trend amid India’s improving GDP growth and earnings growth perspective, according to analysts.

Total FPI buying stood at Rs 23,543 crore this month (till August 22), of which, Rs 14,117 crore was through exchanges and Rs 9,426 crore was through “primary market and others category”.

The factors that are driving the FPIs back to the Indian market are earnings growth revival as reflected in Q1 results, FPI withdrawal from the ‘chip trade’, rupee stability and the impressive growth prospects of companies in the broader market, said market experts.

“A significant trend in the market is that FPIs are not buying attractively valued leading large banking or IT stocks. Instead, they are selectively buying mid-caps despite elevated valuations,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.

A headwind, however, is the high bond yields in the US which is negative for equities, he mentioned.

Indian equity markets ended the week on a cautious note, extending their recent corrective phase as elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment.

Markets remained volatile, with benchmark indices recovering during the week before ending Friday largely flat as investors continued to assess the global risk environment.

Investors are closely monitoring the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, particularly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, where monetary policy guidance is expected to remain a key global market catalyst, according to Ajit Mishra–SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Sectoral performance remained mixed, with defensive positioning and stock-specific buying dominating market activity. Realty, metal and banking performed relatively well, supported by improving sentiment towards these segments.

In contrast, IT stocks remained under pressure, declining around 2.6 per cent during the week amid concerns over US inflation, elevated bond yields and the global technology spending environment. FMCG and energy stocks also remained subdued.

On the domestic front, investors will track crude oil prices, rupee movements, foreign institutional flows and domestic liquidity conditions, said analysts.

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Banks raise $72.8 billion in forex inflows till Aug 21, FCNR(B) deposits reach $65.4 billion: RBI

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New Delhi, Aug 22: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Saturday said that authorised dealer banks have raised a massive $72.848 billion in forex inflows till August 21, and a major chuck came from FCNR (B) deposits at $65.397 billion.

External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) under Reserve Bank’s Swap facility helped raised another $7.451 billion till August 21.

RBI had introduced a special USD-INR forex swap facility covering FCNR(B) deposits, ECB and OFCB inflows on June 8, 2026.

“As already announced vide Press Release dated August 14, 2026, the Scheme is open till August 31, 2026 for FCNR(B) deposits, and up to December 31, 2026 for ECBs and OFCBs,” The Research Bank said in a statement.

The massive foreign inflows arrive as Indian banks have stepped up their efforts to attract FCNR(B) deposits by offering higher interest rates after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) suddenly cut short the deadline for its dollar-rupee swap window to August 31, from September 30.

The swap facility, announced in June to boost the inflow of dollars amid a weakening rupee, was originally available until the end of September, but the RBI abruptly shortened this by a month due to the “encouraging response” to the facility, which resulted in the required amount of foreign exchange flowing into the country.

While there may be valid reasons to justify an early closure of the RBI’s FCNR(B) deposit scheme, the most likely reason could be that the target for dollar mobilisation has already been achieved with inflows at $57 billion, and another $25-30 billion could easily flow in the remaining days of August, taking the total collections to around $85 billion, an SBI Research report said earlier this week.

According to the SBI report, “we don’t believe that the cost of swap could have been a constraining factor”.

“Our estimates show that the cumulative cost would amount to around 15 per cent of the corpus, or $10.5 billion. While this appears sizeable in absolute terms, it needs to be viewed against the scale of India’s foreign-exchange reserves rather than the FCNR(B) corpus alone,” the report argued.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves jumped $9.905 billion to $716.90 billion during the week ended August 14, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday. The latest increase comes a week after the country’s forex reserves had surged by $14.1 billion to $707 billion, marking their highest level in the current financial year.

The rise in reserves was supported by inflows under the RBI’s FCNR(B) deposit scheme, which began to reflect in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

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Fresh tariff war adds pressure to strained US-Canada relationship

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Washington, Aug 22: A trade confrontation between the United States and Canada escalated sharply on Saturday after last-minute negotiations collapsed, triggering 50 per cent US tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian goods and a promise of dollar-for-dollar retaliation from Ottawa.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended the negotiations and ordered his country’s team to return from Washington. He accused the United States of changing its proposed terms at the last minute.

“Last-minute changes in the U.S. proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal,” Carney said.

“At midnight tonight, the US intends to impose a 50% tariff on roughly $28 billion of Canadian goods. Canada will match those tariffs dollar for dollar to protect our workers and businesses,” he said.

The Office of the US Trade Representative blamed Canada for the breakdown. It said Ottawa declined to finalise an agreement under terms reached earlier in the week.

“Despite the US offer to Canada to receive the best treatment of any major exporter to our market, new demands and walk backs of other commitments by Canada have upended the careful balance reached in the past days,” it said.

The US side said its offer included significant tariff reductions covering steel, aluminium, automobiles and lumber. It also proposed cooperation on export controls, transshipment, digital trade, critical minerals and imports made with forced labour.

The package would have included supply-chain coordination in aerospace and the announcement of formal negotiations over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA.

“This is a missed opportunity for Canada to partner with the United States, which is the fastest growing economy in the G7,” the US Trade Representative said.

Carney said Canada had sought tariff-free access for most Canadian businesses, greater stability in bilateral trade and lower US tariffs on strategic industries. Ottawa also wanted to protect small and medium-sized businesses while retaining its independence and economic flexibility.

“We have recognised from the beginning that America has changed, and that we will not return to our old relationship,” he said. “Throughout, our goal has been to secure the best deal for Canadians, never a deal at any price or on any deadline.”

Carney said his government would announce additional assistance for Canadian workers and businesses in the coming days. That would build on nearly $25 billion in support provided during the previous 18 months.

US Senator Peter Welch, a Vermont Democrat and member of the Senate Finance Committee, urged President Donald Trump to withdraw the tariffs.

“These new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods are a continuation of the president’s chaotic economic policies, and a slap in the face to businesses and farmers in Vermont and northern border states across America,” Welch said.

“For the sake of American businesses, American farms, and American families, I urge President Trump to drop these tariffs and find an off-ramp to his reckless trade war,” he added.

Welch is the lead sponsor of the Creating Access to Necessary American-Canadian Duty Adjustments Act. The proposed legislation would exempt American-owned small businesses from tariffs imposed on Canada. He also supports the bipartisan Trade Review Act, which seeks to restore Congress’ role in trade policy.

The latest tariffs add pressure to an already strained relationship. Earlier US duties on automobiles, metals and forest products had prompted retaliatory Canadian measures, while Trump’s repeated remarks about Canada becoming the 51st US state fuelled anger and calls in Canada to reduce its economic reliance on the United States.

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