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Fundamentals for crude oil weaken, witness 1st surplus since June 2020: Goldman Sachs

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Fundamentals for crude oil weakened in April-May with modest declines in the Russian exports, record large sales by Strategic Petroleum Reserve and severe Chinese lockdowns bringing the oil market to its first surplus since June 2020, said multinational investment and financial services firm Goldman Sachs in a report.

The surplus, which the report termed as “politically created surplus”, is already ending, driven by the ongoing recovery in the Chinese demand.

“Chinese demand is recovering, yet we remain conservative on its further normalisation. The government’s push for achieving robust growth this year, therefore leaves risk to our downgraded Chinese demand expectation as skewed to the upside,” the report said.

Going forward, it downgrades China’s demand expectations by 0.2-0.4 million barrels per day in the second half of 2022-23.

“Given our already cautious demand expectations for China at the beginning of this year, this reflects the view that rolling lockdowns will remain a headwind to mobility (in the country) this year.”

Meanwhile, Russian crude oil production is expected to fall by a 0.5 million barrel per day following the European ban, the report said.

“Oil’s structural deficit therefore remains unresolved, with in fact an even tighter oil market through April than we had expected. Supply remains inelastic to higher prices with core-OPEC (higher) and exempt countries (lower) production shifts broadly offsetting.”

On the demand side, the report said that the negative global growth impulse remains insufficient to rebalance inventories at the current prices.

While updating the supply and demand expectations, the report now forecasts that Brent prices will need to average $135 per barrel in the second half of 2022 and first half 2023 for inventories to finally normalise by late 2023.

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India‑UAE ties grow into a model for BRICS collaboration: Report

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New Delhi, Sep 14: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and India are broadening a strategic and economic partnership that serves as “an effective model of cooperation within BRICS,” a new report has said.

The partnership is built on a foundation of historic ties, shared interests and major projects that promote trade, investment and logistics connectivity between markets, the report from Gulf Today said.

“The growing UAE-India partnership, reflected in expanding trade, increasingly integrated logistics corridors and cooperation in investment and innovation, provides a practical model of the UAE’s role within BRICS,” the report said.

Further, the partnership also proves UAE’s commitment to exchanging expertise and perspectives and building more integrated and sustainable economic partnerships.

Bilateral trade reached $101.25 billion in FY26, marking the second consecutive year in which trade between the two countries exceeded $100 billion. The UAE and India have set a target to raise bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032.

The partnership is being advanced through initiatives such as Bharat Mart, the Virtual Trade Corridor and cooperation under the India‑Middle East‑Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

“These initiatives are helping strengthen supply chain integration and create new routes for trade and investment flows between the two countries and global markets,” the report noted.

The UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), operational since 2022 was hailed as the first agreement of its kind concluded by the UAE. The agreement has bolstered the flow of goods, services and investment and expanded opportunities for the private sector in both countries.

United Arab Emirates and China were the largest destinations within BRICS, together accounting for 88.50 per cent of India’s electronics exports to the grouping.

The number of Indian companies registered as active members of Dubai Chamber reached 85,841 by the end of June 2026 after 7,579 new Indian firms joined in the first half of the year, marking a year‑on‑year increase of 15 per cent, another report said.

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BofA turns bullish on Indian equities, sees Nifty at 26,200 by December 2026

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Mumbai, Sep 14: The Nifty could climb to 26,200 by December 2026, implying an upside of around 12 per cent from current levels, as Bank of America (BofA) Securities has turned constructive on Indian equities after maintaining a cautious stance for nearly two years.

In its latest strategy report, BofA said it had remained cautious on Indian stocks since August 2024 and had identified eight key risks that could keep the market volatile. However, five of those risks have either already played out or have been largely priced into the market, prompting the brokerage to adopt a more positive stance.

BofA said the three remaining risks could create around 7 per cent downside for the Nifty 50 in its bear-case scenario. In its base case, however, the brokerage sees the index reaching 26,200 by December 2026.

According to BofA, the remaining risks are expected to peak by October 2026, potentially creating room for a sustained market recovery from November.

One of the key risks identified earlier was a sharp rise in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, compared with BofA’s fourth-quarter 2026 estimate of $81 a barrel. The brokerage noted that crude prices have reversed from the $100-a-barrel level seven times over the past seven months.

The rupee was another concern, although BofA said recent inflows of around $136 billion should provide support to the currency and maintained an appreciation bias.

Weak monsoon conditions were also among the risks, with the current rainfall deficit at 13 per cent, close to the 15 per cent worst-case scenario previously projected by the brokerage.

BofA also expects limited further acceleration in aluminium and copper prices. On monetary policy, its economist expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points by December 2026, compared with around 45 basis points currently priced by swap markets.

The three remaining risks include a possible surge in primary market issuances, with around $30 billion expected between September and December and issuance activity likely to peak in October. Another risk is the possibility of 75 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes, compared with around 35 basis points currently priced by markets. Over the longer term, BofA also flagged the potential impact of artificial intelligence-led disruption on employment in India.

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India okays 18 hours a day power supply to Nepal till Dec 31

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New Delhi, Sep 14: India has approved a proposal to supply power to Nepal for 18 hours a day till December 31 this year, following the extensive damage caused to the Himalayan country’s hydropower projects in the devastating flash floods, an official statement said on Monday.

“The Ministry of Power has accorded approval for the export of power, for 18 hours a day to Nepal Electricity Authority till December 31, 2026,” according to the statement.

Approval has been given for up to 600MW of export through Muzaffarpur-Dhalkebar 400 kV D/c line and up to 54 MW through Tanakpur-Mahendranagar 132 kV S/c line. The quantum of power to be exported from January 2027 will be reviewed in December, 2026, the statement said.

The recent floods have caused significant damage to hydropower infrastructure in Nepal, reducing its domestic power generation capacity and creating an additional requirement for electricity.

The approval will help Nepal meet its power requirements during this difficult period and further strengthen the close and longstanding energy cooperation between India and Nepal, the statement explained.

“India remains committed to supporting Nepal and strengthening bilateral cooperation in the energy sector,” the statement added.

India also intensified its humanitarian assistance to Nepal in the wake of the floods, delivering relief material and deploying personnel to support search, rescue, and forensic operations. Indian Air Force aircraft were used to carry relief and rescue supplies to Kathmandu.

The country also dispatched specialised technical gear, including mud rescue suits, gas detectors, breathing apparatus, inflatable walkways, portable generators, lighting towers, and dewatering pumps. India has provided DNA kits, reagents, and equipment for DNA profiling to aid in victim identification.

Meanwhile, the death toll from flash floods has risen to 1,386, with more bodies recovered from eight affected districts.

The floods, triggered by an ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border on August 26, devastated towns and villages in northern and central Nepal.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, 104 of the recovered bodies have so far been identified and handed over to families. Around 5,130 people are still reported missing.

Security forces continue search and rescue operations. More than 13,700 people have been rescued so far, while 339 people are undergoing treatment in hospitals.

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