Mumbai, Aug 3: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting — led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra — begins on Monday with investors and economists closely tracking the central bank’s assessment of inflation, economic growth and the future interest rate trajectory ahead of the policy decision due on August 5.

The policy announcement is expected to provide cues on the outlook for interest rates, liquidity conditions and the broader economy amid an uncertain global environment.

Many analysts expect the six-member MPC to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent after maintaining the status quo in its June meeting.

According to SBI Research, the RBI is likely to leave policy rates unchanged as consumer price inflation is expected to remain above 5 per cent over the next two quarters, while domestic economic activity has shown signs of strengthening.

The report said Q1 FY27 GDP growth could exceed 7 per cent, higher than earlier estimates.

It further stated that an explicitly dovish message from the central bank appears unlikely in view of oil price volatility, pressure on the rupee and caution over external capital flows.

However, the report noted that domestic fundamentals have improved helped by strong capital inflows in July, a recovery in foreign exchange buffers, better monsoon conditions and near-normal reservoir levels.

Additionally, at its previous policy review in June, the RBI had unanimously retained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and kept its policy stance neutral.

The central bank also revised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent amid geopolitical tensions.

Markets will also closely watch the RBI’s commentary on inflation risks, growth prospects and global developments for signals on the future course of monetary policy.

New Delhi, Aug 2: Pakistan and Bangladesh are among the Asian economies most exposed to the fallout from the prolonged US-Iran conflict, as surging global oil prices threaten to push up inflation, strain public finances and intensify pressure on already fragile economies, according to economists and research firms.

Both countries depend heavily on imported fuel, making them particularly vulnerable to sustained increases in crude oil and diesel prices, according to a report by South China Morning Post.

Analysts warn that limited fuel inventories and weak economic buffers could allow higher global energy costs to feed quickly into domestic prices, raising the cost of transport, electricity and food for millions of households, the report said.

Jamus Lim, Associate Professor of Economics at ESSEC Business School Asia-Pacific cited by the report, said Pakistan and Bangladesh are likely to face significant inflationary pressures in the near term.

He noted that limited inventory buffers mean the impact of higher oil prices would be transmitted relatively quickly through their economies.

Oil markets have already reflected growing concerns over the conflict. Brent crude has climbed sharply over the past month, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has recorded similar gains.

Diesel and other refined fuel products have also posted double-digit increases, adding to concerns over rising energy costs worldwide.

The risks have extended beyond the Gulf region after a drone strike targeted gas vessels at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta, heightening concerns over shipping routes linked to the Suez Canal, one of the key pathways for Saudi oil exports.

For Pakistan and Bangladesh, another energy-price shock could place renewed pressure on currencies, fiscal balances and government subsidy programmes.

Both countries are implementing International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported economic reform programmes that emphasise fiscal discipline, limiting their ability to cushion consumers from higher fuel prices through subsidies.

The conflict, now in its fifth month, has added to uncertainty after US President Donald Trump weighed further military action following Iranian attacks on American military assets in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Oxford Economics has warned that several emerging markets, including Pakistan, Egypt, Mozambique, Nigeria and Kenya, face a combination of geopolitical risks, political uncertainty and rising debt-servicing costs.

According to the research firm, countries such as Pakistan, Mozambique, Kenya, Ghana and Tunisia, which have relatively thin foreign exchange reserve buffers, could experience the sharpest deterioration if the conflict intensifies.

New Delhi, Aug 2: Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Sunday said that West Bengal is set to benefit significantly from the nine landmark Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) concluded under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with enhanced market access expected to boost the state’s exports and economic growth.

In a post on social media platform X, the minister said the FTAs would provide greater opportunities for tea growers, fisherfolk, artisans engaged in traditional handicrafts, as well as the state’s youth and women.

“West Bengal stands to gain significantly from the 9 landmark Free Trade Agreements concluded under PM Narendra Modi,” the Union Minister mentioned.

“Enhanced market access will benefit tea growers, fisherfolk, artisans engaged in traditional handicrafts, and the state’s youth and women,” Goyal added.

According to Goyal, improved access to international markets will help increase production, expand exports and create sustainable livelihood opportunities across multiple sectors in West Bengal.

He said the benefits arising from the trade agreements would contribute to strengthening the state’s economy while advancing the vision of a Viksit Bharat, or developed India.

“This will drive higher production, boost exports, and generate sustainable livelihoods, furthering the vision of Viksit Bharat,” the minister explained.

Meanwhile, earlier this year, a State government insider said that at least 42 industrialists have contacted State Commerce and Industries Minister Tapas Roy, expressing their desire to invest in West Bengal.

According to the official, the minister has assured them of cooperation in this regard. The insider added that several announcements regarding investment in the industrial sector may be made during the current budget session of the State Assembly.

After coming to power, the Suvendu Adhikari government said there would be development in the State’s industrial sector, and that he himself would intervene in this regard.

After the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) first came to power in West Bengal, the Centre asked NITI Aayog to prepare a long-term blueprint to revive West Bengal’s industry and economy.

That work has already started under the leadership of NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Ashok Kumar Lahiri.