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Investors unnerved by lack of transparency in LPG pricing, under recoveries of OMCs

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Lack of transparency in LPG pricing, related under recoveries and inventory gains/losses have unnerved the investors and weighed on their interests in the oil marketing companies.

Rising LPG prices along with the ongoing elections in key states have tested the resolve of the government and the Oil Marketing Companies (IOCL, BPCL and HPCL), Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities said in a note.

While prices of auto fuels have not been changed since early November’21, price of subsidized LPG cylinder has also been retained since November’21.

Prices of auto fuels and LPG are likely to decline in near future along with an expected drop in Brent prices. While the decline in prices should recover some portion of the under-recovery, the same is likely to destroy whatever slight interest the market has in the divestment of BPCL, the report said. Hence, we downgrade BPCL to Neutral. We maintain our Neutral rating on HPCL due to rising debt, project execution risk and reducing leverage to marketing.

Although refining margins have improved, lack of mark-to-market pricing of LPG has once again raised the concerns of yesteryears when the OMCs used to share the burden of under-recoveries. Even if OMCs are not made to share any under-recovery, the continued pricing intervention would make it utterly difficult to divest government’s stake in BPCL.

After netting a total cost of Rs 1.8/lit on each, OMCs would be making net losses of Rs 3.6/lit and Rs 2.8/lit on petrol and diesel, respectively. A change of $1/bbl in benchmark petrol/diesel price makes an impact of 40paise/lit on their margins.

We believe that with the decline in benchmark petrol and diesel prices, the OMCs would be able to recoup their poor profitability rates that are evident currently. However, inability to pass on the cost inflation amid ongoing elections questions the independence of the companies, thereby taking the valuation multiples back to the regime when prices used to be regulated, the report said.

As per our calculation, the total under-recovery will be at Rs 101 billion during October’21-February’22. Further, if we consider no change in LPG price in March’22E, then the total under-recoveries would inflate to Rs 121 billion over October’21-March’22.

Earlier, the OMCs used to clearly earmark their under-recoveries along with compensation/receivables from the government/upstream companies. However, a lack of mention suggests that there is a possibility of them bearing the full burden in FY22E, the report said.

Business

Sensex, Nifty open flat tracking mixed global signals

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Mumbai, Sep 30: Domestic equity benchmarks opened flat on Wednesday tracking mixed global cues as investors remained cautious after foreign investors extended their selling streak to a fourth straight session.

Nifty opened at 22,665, down about 50 points or 0.23 per cent. Sensex began trading at 72,441.15, lower by 87.92 points or 0.12 per cent.

In early trade, the Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom index was top sectoral gainer which rose more than 1 per cent.

Meanwhile, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Chemicals, Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty Cement and Nifty Media also jumped up to 1 per cent.

In contrast, metal stocks were among the laggards with Nifty Metal falling 0.42 per cent. Healthcare and pharmaceutical indices were also marginally lower.

Market experts said elevated US bond yields were contributing to foreign investor selling, while the recent correction had created attractive valuations in parts of the Indian market.

“From the Indian investors’ perspective, this sharp correction in the market presents an opportunity. Largecaps with good growth prospects have reached attractive valuations,” they said.

Experts also noted that a correction in crude oil prices could trigger a market rally with largecap market leaders potentially leading such a move.

Technical analysts said the market could attempt to stabilise after its recent decline, with buying emerging around key technical levels.

Nifty had formed a hammer candle in the previous session, indicating buying interest at lower levels, while strength in select heavyweight stocks helped limit the decline.

The near-term structure has improved towards sideways to mildly bullish following the reversal from 22,600.

Immediate support is seen at 22,650-22,700, while resistance is placed at 22,950-23,000, according to the experts.

On Tuesday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended their selling streak to a fourth consecutive session, offloading equities worth nearly Rs 10,000 crore, according to provisional data.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided support, buying equities worth nearly Rs 7,000 crore.

In addition, Asian markets were broadly positive in early hours despite a mildly weaker Wall Street session, while investors remained focused on upcoming US economic data and global market trends for further direction.

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Gold, silver trade up to 1 pc lower amid elevated US yields, geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, Sep 29: Gold and silver prices traded lower on Tuesday with precious metals declining up to 1 per cent amid elevated US yields and uncertainty over the US-Iran standoff which weighed on bullion sentiment.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (December) were trading at Rs 1,48,410 per 10 grams, down Rs 487 or 0.33 per cent.

The yellow metal declined as much as 0.50 per cent or Rs 747 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,48,150 by 10:34 am. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,49,034, up 0.09 per cent or Rs 137.

On the other hand, silver futures (December) fell as much as 1.29 per cent or Rs 2,942 to hit an intraday low of Rs 2,24,500 per kg.

At the last count, the white metal was trading at Rs 2,25,338, down Rs 2,104 or 0.93 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 2,26,359, down 0.47 per cent or Rs 1,083.

The selling pressure in precious metals came amid elevated tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz which kept energy prices higher.

Spot gold was also trading lower after falling 4 per cent in the previous session to a seven-week low.

Iranian officials reportedly have privately expressed pessimism about reaching an agreement with Washington to end hostilities before the US midterm elections in November.

The developments came after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the critical waterway within seven days.

The uncertainty has kept energy prices elevated while higher US yields have added pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

According to commodity experts, immediate resistance for gold is placed at Rs 1,50,000-1,50,700, followed by Rs 1,52,000-1,52,600, while support is seen at Rs 1,48,000-1,47,300, followed by Rs 1,46,000-1,45,300.

However, the near-term bias remained cautious, with a sustained move above Rs 1,50,000 needed to confirm a recovery. A decisive break below Rs 1,48,000 could trigger another decline.

For silver, the experts said the metal opened with a gap-down near Rs 2,26,000 and remained below the Rs 2,27,000-2,28,000 zone, which has turned into resistance following Monday’s steep decline.

Immediate resistance for silver is seen at Rs 2,27,000-2,28,000, followed by Rs 2,32,000-2,33,000. Support is placed at Rs 2,24,000-2,23,000, followed by Rs 2,20,000-2,19,000.

The bias for silver remained cautious to negative, with a sustained move above Rs 2,28,000 needed to stabilise the setup. A decisive break below Rs 2,24,000 could expose the metal to the Rs 2,20,000 region.

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From Assam’s fields to Lay’s packets: Himanta Sarma highlights Rs 778 crore investment

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Guwahati, Sep 29: Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Tuesday highlighted the growing investment and employment opportunities in the state, citing a Rs 778 crore investment and the expansion of local value chains from agricultural produce to consumer products.

Taking to social media platform X, CM Sarma said the growth of investment in Assam was creating more opportunities for local employment and enabling products originating in the state to reach markets beyond its borders.

“It grows with opportunity ₹778 Cr investment, more local employment opportunities,” CM Sarma said in his post. Highlighting the connection between agriculture and industry, the Chief Minister said the journey of a potato grown in Assam’s fields to a packet of Lay’s available on consumers’ shelves represented the kind of economic opportunity the state was seeking to create.

“From a potato growing in our fields to a packet of Lay’s on your shelf. That’s what opportunity looks like – Made in Assam, reaching beyond Assam,” he said.

The post underlined the state government’s emphasis on strengthening local production and creating an ecosystem in which agricultural output can feed into large-scale processing and manufacturing.

The Rs 778 crore investment highlighted by CM Sarma is also significant in the context of Assam’s efforts to attract private investment and expand employment opportunities outside traditional sectors.

The government has been promoting the state as an emerging investment destination, with a focus on manufacturing, food processing, infrastructure and other industries.

The Chief Minister’s remarks also pointed to the potential of linking Assam’s farmers with organised food-processing and consumer-product supply chains. Such linkages can create additional avenues for value addition within the state while enabling locally produced agricultural commodities to access wider markets.

The reference to Lay’s reflects the broader idea of converting locally grown agricultural produce into branded consumer products, thereby creating economic activity at multiple stages, from farming and procurement to processing, packaging, logistics and retail.

CM Sarma’s post comes amid the state government’s continued efforts to project Assam as a destination for investment and industrial development. The government has repeatedly stressed the need to generate more local employment while ensuring that the benefits of industrial growth reach communities and producers within the state.

The Chief Minister said the larger objective was to ensure that opportunities created in Assam were not confined to the state but enabled locally produced goods to reach consumers across the country and beyond.

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