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Auto industry not out of woods, RBI’s move to make loans costlier: FADA

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The automobile industry is still not out of the woods and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) move to increase the repo-rate by 45 basis points will make vehicle loans expensive, said a top official of the Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA).

Comparing the auto sales in April 2022 with that of April 2019 FADA President Vinkesh Gulati said the sector is still not out of the woods as overall retails were down by minus six per cent.

Apart from PV (passenger vehicle) and tractors which grew handsomely by 12 per cent and 30 per cent, two/three wheelers, commercial vehicles are yet to turn green as these categories were down by minus-11 per cent, 13 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, Gulati said.

“The month of April (2022) saw similar Auto Retail figures as March’22. While YoY comparison with April’21 shows all categories in green with high growth rate, it is important to note that both April’21 and April’20 were affected by nation-wide lockdown due to phase 1 and 2 of the Covid wave which witnessed no to negligible business. Hence a better comparison will be with Aprila�19 which was a normal pre-covid month,” Gulati said.

He said the RBI’s out of turn announcement of increasing repo-rate by 45 bps has taken everyone off-guard.

“The move will curb excess liquidity in the system and will make auto loans expensive,” he added.

While the passenger vehicle segment may be able to absorb this shock due to long waiting periods, the two wheeler segment is already reeling due to an underperforming rural market, vehicle price hikes and high fuel costs.

High interest rates for vehicle loan due to RBI’s move will be an additional blow for this segment. Certainly, this move will slow the speed of auto retail and dampen the sentiments further, Gulati said.

On the other hand, Private consumption is regaining traction backed by a recuperating contact-intensive services and rising discretionary spending.

“With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing and China under lockdown, the global auto industry continues to witness supply crunch as semi-conductor shortage along with high metal prices and container shortage prevails. Customers of the PV segment hence continues to witness long waiting period,” Gulati said.

Referring to the Skymet’s normal monsoon forecast and if the monsoon is evenly distributed there will have a positive rub-off on rural sentiment as farmers will be able to get better crop realisation thus increasing their disposable income.

It will thus benefit tractor and two wheeler sales. This along with the marriage season in coming days will also see traction in auto retail.

Overall, FADA changes its stance from extremely cautious to cautious in terms of slight recovery in near term.

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Gold, silver continue to decline as CME margin requirements hike set to take effect

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Mumbai, Feb 2: Gold and silver extended their decline on Monday, as hike in margin requirements are set to take effect on Chicago Merchantile Exchange (CME) in the US.

MCX gold February futures fell 1.77 per cent to Rs 1,45,132 per 10 grams on an intra-day basis. Meanwhile MCX silver March futures dipped 6.88 per cent to Rs 2,47,386 per kg.

Analysts said the free fall of gold and silver from their record highs started after the US President Donald Trump selected Kevin Warsh as the next US Fed Chairman. Investors reacted negatively because Warsh is considered more aggressive on interest-rate policy than earlier chairs, they added.

The decline was further supported by a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields, and upbeat US inflation data (PPI and core PPI). As import duty was kept unchanged in the Union Budget the domestic premium in bullion suffered, said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

In international markets silver could find support near $68, while gold may hold around $4,510 this week, analysts forecasted. Spot gold recovered considerably after dropping 4 per cent in early morning session on Monday, during the Asian trading hours.

“Gold has support at Rs 1,39,650 to Rs 1,36,310 zone while resistance at Rs 1,48,850 and Rs 1,50,950. Silver has support at Rs 2,48,810 and Rs 2,37,170 while resistance at Rs 2,78,810 and Rs 2,95,470,” the analyst said.

According to them, the broader market trend for COMEX gold remains constructive, even as the recent vertical rally pushed momentum indicators into overbought territory, leading to heat-driven profit booking and mild price digestion from elevated levels.

Structural supply deficits and steady industrial demand continue to underpin the bullish bias in silver. Persistent safe-haven demand, steady central-bank accumulation, and expectations of accommodative global monetary conditions continue to underpin prices of yellow metal.

A recent report from WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund said that investors should trim precious metals allocation back to a safe‑haven allocation level, especially on the silver as its valuation had reached the most over-extended level relative to historical periods.

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New excise duty, health cess on cigarettes, pan masala to begin from Feb 1

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New Delhi, Jan 31: From February 1, the government is bringing a new tax structure for cigarettes, tobacco products and pan masala, aiming to tighten regulation and keep tax levels high on these so-called ‘sin goods’.

An additional excise duty will now be charged on cigarettes and tobacco products, along with a new health and national security cess on pan masala.

These new levies will replace the earlier system under which these products were taxed at 28 per cent GST along with a compensation cess that has been in place since the launch of GST in July 2017.

The government is also introducing a new MRP-based valuation system for several tobacco products such as chewing tobacco, filter khaini, jarda scented tobacco and gutkha.

Under this system, GST will be calculated based on the retail price printed on the packet, instead of factory value.

This move is expected to reduce tax evasion and improve revenue collection. Pan masala manufacturers will now have to take fresh registration under the new health and national security cess law starting February 1.

They will also be required to install CCTV cameras that cover all packing machines and store the video recordings for at least two years.

In addition, companies must inform excise authorities about the number of machines in their factories and their production capacity.

If any machine remains non-functional for 15 days in a row, manufacturers will be allowed to claim a reduction in excise duty for that period.

Even after the new changes, the government has ensured that the overall tax burden on pan masala, including 40 per cent GST, will remain around the current level of 88 per cent.

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Indian stock markets gain this week ahead of Budget 2026

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Mumbai, Jan 31: The Indian equity benchmarks gained around 1 per cent during the week, though the trading sessions were volatile but with a cautiously constructive tone amid mixed global cues and rising geopolitical tensions.

Risk appetite weakened toward the end of the week ahead of the Union Budget 2026-27, with volatility resurfacing amid sustained FII outflows and rupee depreciation leading to losses in the last trading session.

Nifty added 1.09 per cent during the week and dipped 0.39 per cent on the last trading day to 25,320. At close, Sensex was down 296 points or 0.36 percent at 81,537. It added 0.90 per cent during the week.

Sectoral indices traded mixed this week with diversified consumer services stocks and hardware tech stocks logging the worst-performance, dipping 2.5 to 3.7 per cent. FMCG, media and software stocks slide over 1 per cent.

Metal stocks as well as oil and gas were the top weekly gainers up over 2 per cent, however Nifty metal index plummeted over 5 per cent on the last trading session. Profit booking also intensified in IT amid a firmer dollar and global liquidity concerns, and caution over incoming Fed Chair, analysts said.

Select pockets of weakness were observed in autos and beverages amid intensifying competitive pressures.

Broader indices posted stronger gains during the week, with the Nifty Midcap100 up 2.25 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 gained 3.2 per cent.

The markets opened the week with a subdued sentiment due to renewed tariff-related concerns and mixed corporate earnings, although optimism surrounding the India–EU trade agreement lent support, particularly to trade-oriented sectors.

Market sentiment improved mid-week following a favourable economic survey that reinforced expectations of robust FY27 growth and a benign inflation outlook.

Analysts said that markets remain wary that a potentially stronger inflation focus could prolong tight financial conditions and weigh on emerging markets.

Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain largely event-driven, with the Union Budget acting as the key domestic trigger, they said.

Cyclical sectors may continue to show relative resilience if supported by policy measures, while IT and export-oriented stocks are likely to remain sensitive to global macro cues, analysts added.

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