Mumbai: In a bull case scenario, Sensex is projected to reach 115,836 and Nifty is likely touch 43,876 by the financial year 2028 (FY28), a report said on Friday.

However, in a bear case scenario, Sensex is projected to reach 1,04,804 and Nifty at 39,697 by FY28, Ventura, a stock broking platform, said in its recent projection.

Nifty is expected to oscillate within a well-defined price-to-earnings (PE) band in these three years, with projected robust earnings growth with estimated FY28 earnings per share compound annual growth rate (EPS CAGR) of 12-14 per cent.

“In the last 10 years, the Indian economy has demonstrated resilience and clocked the highest GDP growth as a large economy despite global headwinds of NBFC crisis, Covid 19, Russia-Ukraine war and the recent uncertainty on US President Donald Trump tariff,” said Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research, Ventura.

The risk mitigation influencers will outweigh the current challenges, which will usher Indian GDP growth to 7.3 per cent by FY30(E), he added.

By FY28, the Indian index will be at a PE level of 21 times in the bull case and 19 times in the bear case with an estimated earnings-per-share (EPS) of 5,516 for Sensex and 2,089 for Nifty 50, the report stated.

Over the past ten years, India has demonstrated extraordinary resilience by navigating a series of unprecedented disruptions without compromising its growth trajectory.

From the “Fragile Five” designation to demonetisation, GST implementation, a crippling NBFC crisis, and the dual shock of COVID-19 waves, India has withstood and adapted to adversity, the report highlighted.

According to the report, even global headwinds like the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump-era tariffs have failed to derail its momentum, underlining the robustness of the Indian economy.

As of the mid-season point for Q1 FY26 earnings, 159 companies have reported Q1 FY26 results, revealing broad-based strength across key sectors.

Engineering/manufacturing and services sectors have led the pack, while consumption, commodities, and pharma show steady performance, the report stated.

Key Highlights:

– Sensex fell 171 pts, Nifty down 35 pts; midcaps, smallcaps held strong.

– FIIs sold Rs 3,694 crore worth of stocks; DIIs bought Rs 2,820 crore.

– Nifty’s bearish engulfing pattern suggests continued caution; 25,000 key support.

Mumbai: Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty began Friday’s session in the red, weighed down by selling pressure in large-cap stocks. At 9:25 am, the Sensex declined by 171 points or 0.21 percent to trade at 82,087, while the Nifty dropped 35 points or 0.14 percent to 25,075.

Heavyweights Drag, Broader Market Holds

Major drag on the indices came from key constituents such as Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and HDFC Bank. Financial stocks, FMCG, and private banking segments were under pressure. However, midcap and smallcap segments outperformed, providing resilience to the overall market.

Gainers on the Sensex included M&M, Tata Steel, Power Grid, L&T, Infosys, and Maruti Suzuki, reflecting strength in sectors like auto, metals, and infra.

Sectoral Picture Mixed

On the sectoral front, gains were recorded in auto, IT, PSU banks, metals, realty, energy, media, infrastructure, and commodities. Meanwhile, financial services, FMCG, and private banking faced losses.

Technical indicators showed bearish signals, with Nifty completing a bearish engulfing candle on Thursday. Analysts highlight 25,000 as a key support and 25,340 as a vital resistance level.

FIIs Remain Net Sellers

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling trend, offloading equities worth Rs 3,694 crore on July 17 — marking the second consecutive session of net selling. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), however, remained net buyers, purchasing Rs 2,820 crore worth of shares for the ninth straight session.

According to Dr. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services, FIIs have shown a clear pattern of selling in July after buying in the previous three months. Without positive triggers, the downtrend could persist.

Global Cues Offer Some Relief

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Friday, with Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Jakarta in the green, although Tokyo and Seoul lagged. The US markets ended positively on Thursday, driven by upbeat investor sentiment.

Mumbai: The Indian equity indices opened flat on Thursday, as markets looked for new triggers to break out of the consolidation range.

At 9.2 am, c was down 15 points at 82,619 and Nifty was down 2 points at 25,210. Buying was seen in the midcap and smallcap stocks. Nifty midcap 100 index was up 123 points or 0.18 per cent at 59,741 and Nifty smallcap 100 index was up 70 points or 0.37 per cent at 19,210.

On the sectoral front, auto, pharma, FMCG, metal, realty, energy, infra and PSE were major gainers, while IT, PSU bank, financial services and media were major losers.

In the Sensex pack, Sun Pharma, M&M, Trent, Kotak Mahindra, Tata Motors, NTPC, BEL, Titan and Power Grid were major gainers. Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Eternal, Axis Bank, Infosys and HUL were major losers.

According to analysts, an India-US interim trade deal has been discounted by the market, leaving no scope for a sharp rally decisively breaking the range.

“One positive and surprise factor that can trigger a rally is a tariff rate much below 20 per cent, say 15 per cent, which the market has not discounted. So, watch out for developments on the trade and tariff front,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Most Asian stocks traded in a flat-to-low range. Tokyo, Shanghai, Bangkok and Jakarta were trading in the green while Hong Kong and Seoul were in the red.

The US market closed in the green on Wednesday due to positive market sentiment.

On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to reduce exposure in India, selling equities worth Rs 1,858 crore on July 16. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained consistent buyers for the 8th straight session, infusing Rs 1,223 crore, lending crucial support to the market amid global uncertainties.

The broader trend remains optimistic as long as key support levels are respected, said analysts.