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RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations

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Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.

Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.

The three-day meeting started on Monday.

In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.

In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.

India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.

Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.

Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities

MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.

The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.

Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.

Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.

Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services

India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.

Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.

It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.

Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo

The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.

Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.

Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking

We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.

Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group

The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.

Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group

There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.

A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.

Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities

The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.

Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.

Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital

We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.

And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.

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Chinese missile maker’s stock tanks over 6 pc after India destroys its air weapon

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New Delhi, May 13: The shares of Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp Ltd, the Chinese defence company that manufactures the PL-15 missile, dropped sharply by 6.42 per cent or 2.56 Yuan to 37.33 Yuan on Tuesday, after India’s air defence system successfully intercepted and destroyed the missile during the conflict with Pakistan.

Over the past month, the company’s shares have declined by 7.37 per cent, or 2.97 Yuan. However, the stock showed a brief 5-day recovery of 7.58 per cent.

The stock plunge came after Indian defence forces confirmed that the PL-15 missile, supplied to Pakistan by China, failed to penetrate the country’s multi-layered air defence system.

On the night of May 9 and 10, Pakistan launched a series of air attacks targeting Indian Air Force bases and military facilities using advanced weaponry, including the Chinese PL-15 missile and Turkish-made Byker YIHA III kamikaze drones.

However, India’s air defence successfully intercepted all threats.

The PL-15, a beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile used by Pakistan’s JF-17 and J-10 fighter jets, was neutralised by indigenous defence systems.

This interception has raised questions about the real-world effectiveness of China’s missile technology, possibly triggering the decline in investor confidence in Zhuzhou Hongda.

India’s Director General of Air Operations, Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, displayed images of the intercepted weapons, showcasing how the Indian defence network had destroyed high-tech missiles and drones.

He credited India’s self-reliant defence capabilities, particularly the indigenous ‘Akash’ air defense system, as a crucial factor in neutralising the threat.

The Akash system, alongside vintage systems like Pichora and advanced platforms including MANPADS, short-range missiles, and fighter aircraft, formed a coordinated defense shield under the Integrated Air Command and Control System.

The Turkish Byker YIHA III drone, capable of carrying high-explosive payloads and designed for low-altitude, high-speed attacks, was also intercepted near Amritsar.

This drone was intended to cause significant damage to military or civilian targets, but failed to breach India’s defenses.

Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai, Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), explained the multi-layered coordination among the Indian Army, Air Force, and Navy, describing a defence posture that was both measured and impenetrable.

Between May 9 and 10, India’s multi-layered air defence grid was put to the test as waves of drones, launched by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), attempted to penetrate Indian airspace. “Not a single PAF drone could breach the defence shield,” Lt Gen Ghai stated.

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Indian rupee opens stronger against US dollar

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Mumbai, May 13: The Indian rupee opened 75 paise stronger at 84.65 against the US dollar on Tuesday, following its previous close at 85.38 a dollar.

The trading range for the day was expected to be between 84.50 and 85.25, according to analysts. The dollar maintained its gains following a significant trade pact between the US and China.

The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 per cent to 30 per cent for 90 days, while China said it will cut tariffs on US goods from 125 per cent to 10 per cent for 90 days. The two countries will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations.

According to analysts, any fresh developments on the geopolitical front are likely to have a significant impact on the rupee’s direction.

In FY25, rupee traded in the range of 83.10 and 87.6 against the greenback, initially weakening after the US election results and depreciating by 2.4 per cent over the year due to persistent FPI outflows and a strong US dollar.

Despite these challenges, the rupee remained relatively stable compared to other global currencies, supported by healthy government finances, a declining current account deficit, improved liquidity, and moderating oil prices, among others, according to the NSE’s ‘Market Pulse Report’ for April.

Towards the end of the year, a reversal in dollar strength and renewed FPI inflows into debt helped the rupee recover, appreciating by 2.4 per cent in March 2025.

The rupee’s average annualised volatility declined to 2.7 per cent in FY25, positioning it among the least volatile major emerging market currencies, highlighting India’s strong external buffers and proactive forex management.

“However, the rupee remained overvalued, with the 40-currency trade weighted REER rising to 105.3, although both REER and NEER moderated gradually from H1FY25, indicating an easing of overvaluation. The one-year forward premium for the rupee continued to moderate, reflecting changing premium dynamics and India’s macroeconomic resilience,” the report mentioned.

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FIIs to resume equity purchases in India as bulls roar: Analysts

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Mumbai, May 12: The ceasefire between India and Pakistan has paved the way for a sharp rally in the market and with this, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are likely to resume their equity purchases in India, analysts said on Monday.

Sensex and Nifty surged more than 2.7 per cent in the morning trade.

According to market watchers, the prime mover of the rally will now be the FII buying, which has been sustained for 16 continuous days except last Friday when the conflict escalated.

“Domestic macros like expectations of high GDP growth and revival of earnings growth in FY26 and declining inflation and interest rates augur well for the resumption of a rally in the market,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

FIIs favour large caps like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, L&T, Bharti, Ultratech, M&M and Eicher. Midcap IT and digital stocks are other segments to watch.

Pharma stocks may come under near-term pressure from US President Donald Trump’s latest announcement regarding reducing prices of drugs in the US.

“There are rumours of impending US deal with China on trade but details are yet to come. If a deal materialises that would be good for the global economy,” said Vijayakumar.

The hallmark of FPI investment in recent days has been the sustained buying by FIIs. FIIs bought equity through the exchanges consecutively for 16 trading days ending 8th May for a cumulative amount of Rs 48,533 crore.

“They sold for Rs 3,798 crore on 9th May when the India-Pak conflict got escalated. Now that ceasefire has been declared, FIIs are likely to resume their equity purchases in India,” said analysts.

It is important to understand that FIIs were continuous sellers in India in the first three months of this year. The big selling began in January (Rs 78,027 crore) when the dollar index peaked at 111 in mid-January.

Thereafter, the intensity of selling declined. FIIs turned buyers in April with a buy figure of Rs 4,243 crore.

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