Business
RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations
 
												Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.
Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.
The three-day meeting started on Monday.
In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.
In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.
India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.
Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.
Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities
MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.
The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.
Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.
Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.
Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services
India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.
Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.
It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.
Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo
The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.
Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.
Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking
We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.
Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group
The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.
Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group
There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.
A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.
Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities
The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.
Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.
Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital
We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.
And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.
Business
Mumbai Infra News: MHADA Selects Firm For Kamathipura Redevelopment Project, Awaits State Nod

Mumbai: In a major step toward transforming one of Mumbai’s oldest and most congested neighbourhoods, the Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority (MHADA) has selected AATK Constructions for the long-pending redevelopment of Kamathipura in South Central Mumbai. The project, spread over 34 acres, has now moved to the state government’s high-power committee (HPC) for approval before it goes to the state cabinet for final clearance.
MHADA’s Mumbai Building Repairs and Reconstruction Board (MBRRB) had received two bids, one from AATK Constructions and another from J Kumar Infraprojects. After a detailed evaluation of technical and financial aspects, MHADA declared AATK the successful bidder and forwarded the proposal to the HPC for consideration.
“This urban renewal project will be a historic one,” said MLA Amin Patel, who has been advocating for Kamathipura’s redevelopment for more than a decade. “Bringing landlords, tenants and the government to a consensus was not easy, but this plan will finally offer a dignified living space to thousands.
The Kamathipura Redevelopment Project covers 8,001 tenements, including 6,625 residential and 1,376 commercial units, spread across 943 cessed buildings and involving 800 landowners. Most of these structures are over a century old and beyond repair, with many plots measuring only 50 sq metres, making independent redevelopment unfeasible.
Under the proposed plan, eligible residential occupants will receive 500 sq ft carpet area flats in new towers up to 57 storeys high, while non-residential tenants will get 225 sq ft spaces. Sale buildings will rise to 78 storeys, creating a mixed-use skyline that combines residential, commercial and sale components.
The redevelopment is expected to replace dilapidated tenements with modern high-rise structures equipped with amenities and better infrastructure. Landowners will also benefit from additional entitlements based on plot sizes, with larger plots earning proportionally higher returns.
Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, while addressing the Assembly earlier, acknowledged the significance of the project, noting that he had worked ‘for the people of Kamathipura.’ The state government had earlier entrusted the redevelopment responsibility to MHADA’s MBRRB under the Construction and Development (C&D) format after private developers expressed disinterest due to the complex ownership patterns.
Once approved by the HPC and cabinet, the long-awaited transformation of Kamathipura is expected to finally take off, turning one of Mumbai’s most dilapidated localities into a modern, livable urban zone.
Business
CBI Chargesheet Alleges ₹2,796 Crore Yes Bank Fraud Involving Anil Ambani’s ADA Group And Rana Kapoor

Mumbai: The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) which is probing the transactions between Yes bank through its former Managing Director Rana Kapoor and Anil Dhirubhai Ambani (ADA) Group company, has alleged that the funds received from the bank in M/s Reliance Home Finance Limited (RHFL) and Reliance Commercial Finance Ltd (RCFL) were further diverted to several shell companies, created only to receive funds.
CBI has submitted a chargesheet before the special CBI court against Rana Kapoor and his family, Anil Ambani and other companies for causing loss to Yes bank to the tune of Rs 2796.77 crores, as the investments made in ADA group could not be recovered.
The agency has said that during 2017-2019, Yes Bank had invested Rs. 2965.00 crores and Rs 2045.00 crores through subscription of Non- Convertible Debentures (NCDs) & Commercial Papers (CPs) of M/s RHFL and M/s RCFL respectively.
The agency has in its chargesheet listed down several shell companies which further received funds from RHFL and RCFL. The list of these shell companies, as mentioned in CBI’s chargesheet include – Gamesa Investment Management Pvt Ltd (GIMPL), Species Commerce and Trade Pvt, Crest Logistics and Engineers Pvt Ltd, Gamesa Investment Management Pvt Ltd, and Mohanbir Hi-Tech Build Pvt Ltd.
The agency claimed that, “the primary purpose of these shell companies was to receive funds from RHFL and RCFL acted on instructions of Anil Ambani.”
CBI claimed that Anil Ambani was unable to directly invest the funds available at the disposal of M/s Reliance Nippon Mutual Fund in the financial companies of the ADA Group, which were under stress, due SEBI Mutual Fund Regulations. Hence in a criminal conspiracy, Yes Bank Ltd subscribed to NCDs of M/s RHFL, M/s RCFL and M/s Reliance Capital Limited (RCL).
In return, the agency alleged that the funds available at the disposal of M/s Reliance Nippon Mutual Fund, invested in YBL AT-1 bonds and AMC also invested in Rana Kapoor’s family firm.
Thus, funds available with Reliance Nippon Mutual Funds were routed to the group companies of ADA through Yes Bank, CBI claimed, adding that the funds were further diverted to other shell companies.
The agency has alleged that it all started with the meeting held between Rana Kapoor and Anil Ambani on October 6, 2017, just a month before the Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited (AMC) was listed with BSE and NSE on November 6, 2017.
The agency pointed out that “the abnormal decision of YBL to make huge investment in the NCDs of the financial companies of ADA Group and the abnormal decision of the AMC to make huge investment in the YBL AT-1 Bonds were taken in this meeting. Both the investment decisions were taken in a hasty manner and without holding any discussion between the officers of YBL and the officers of the AMC.”
It is claimed that on October 6, 2017 it was Friday, hence the following working day that is on October 9, 2017, the process began. The agency claimed that on October 9, 2017, Kapoor instructed senior executives of IFIB for initiating the proposal for investing in NCDs worth Rs 2900 crores in three ADA group companies – RHFL, RCFL and RCL. The agency claimed that the investment transaction was completed and funds were transferred on October 13, 2017.
On the other hand, AMC, allegedly under the influence of Anil Ambani, prepared a formal note for increasing the long-term debt investment limit in M/s Morgan Credits Private Limited (MCPL), a firm owned by Radha and Roshini, from Rs 550 crores to Rs 625 crores. Accordingly in ten days AMC invested Rs 50 crores in MCPL.
Meanwhile, on October 9, 2017, Yes Bank initiated the process for issuance of fresh AT-1 bond under the instructions of Rana Kapoor, even when the DCM team of the bank had raised apprehension for arranging subscribers for making investment in fresh YBL AT 1 bonds in such a span, wherein they were still busy in offloading earlier bonds in secondary market, CBI alleged.
However, CBI claimed that Rana Kapoor had informed them that Reliance Nippon Mutual fund would make an investment of Rs 2000 crores through private placement and Rs 1000 crores secondary market in YBL AT 1 bond.
The agency claimed that AMC had enhanced the sub limit for YBL AT – 1 bond by about 600% in a short span of time, as compared to the sub-limit of other banks which was at max enhanced to 70%.
Business
Indian stock market opens flat amid mixed global cues

New Delhi, Oct 31: The domestic benchmark indices started the session flat amid mixed global cues, as US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed to ease the trade conflict for a year only.
The Sensex started the session at 84,379.79, down 25 points against the last session’s closing of 84,404.46. Nifty opened 14 points lower at 25,863.80. However, both the indices turned green in a while amid buying in automobile and banking heavyweights.
“The Trump-Xi summit delivered only a one-year truce in the US-China trade war, not a breakthrough trade deal. To that extent, market participants were disappointed at the outcome, even though there is relief in the declining trade tensions and possible movement towards further progress,” analysts said.
Among the Sensex stocks, NTPC, Tata Steel, Kotak Bank, Sun Pharma, and Bharti Airtel were trading lower in early trade, while Maruti Suzuki, TCS, BEL, Bajaj Finance, Titan, Tata Motors PV, L&T, and ITC were trading in positive territory.
Broader indices witnessed buying activities in the morning trade as Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 were up around 0.4 per cent. Nifty 100 was also trading in green.
“The rally in the Indian market has been running out of steam as it approaches the record high of 26277 set in September 2024. Renewed selling by FIIs is likely to be a drag on the market in the near-term,” market watchers added.
Sectoral indices were trading high. Nifty Auto, Nifty IT, Bank Nifty, and Nifty FMCG were trading up to 0.6 per cent higher amid decent buying interest. Nifty Fin Services was also trading up.
“Given the heightened volatility and mixed global cues, traders are advised to maintain a cautious ‘buy-on-dips’ approach, particularly when using leverage. Booking partial profits during rallies and keeping tight trailing stop losses will be key for effective risk management. Fresh long positions should be considered only if the Nifty sustains above the 26,100 mark,” the analysts added.
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