Business
RBI to take up repo rate hikes from April with a cumulative rise of 150bps in FY23
The focus of the Union Budget 2022 is likely to be on investment-driven growth with a focus on infrastructure investment to generate multiplier effects to spur economic growth.
Morgan Stanley said in a report the focus will be on raising additional resources through strategic divestment and asset monetisation. Indeed, the overall focus of the government should be to utilise all revenue levers effectively (tax compliance to improve tax to GDP, strategic asset sales) to sustainably improve the health of the public sector balance sheet.
Fiscal data on a tracking basis has surprised positively, even as spending is tracking above budgeted levels due to the better-than- expected trend in tax collections. However, divestments have remained weak, and, as such, the eventual timing of the LIC IPO can have a bearing on the final fiscal deficit for F2022.
If the IPO goes through in Q4F22, as asserted by government officials, we opine the fiscal deficit would come in lower by 40bps (at 6.4 per cent of GDP) than the budgeted estimate at 6.8 per cent of GDP. If the IPO fails to materialise, we anticipate the fiscal deficit target would be in line with the government target of 6.8 per cent of GDP. In F2023, we anticipate slow-paced fiscal consolidation leading to a fiscal deficit of 6 per cent of GDP, driven by continued tax buoyancy, reduction in pandemic-related revenue spending and a pickup in divestment proceeds, Morgan Stanley said.
We expect the RBI to embark on policy normalisation with a 15-20bps hike in the reverse repo rate to normalise the policy rate corridor. We anticipate the impact on growth from the third-wave-led disruptions to be short-lived and concentrated primarily on the contact-intensive services sector. Moreover, the impact doesn’t weigh on the future growth trajectory,and thus does not warrant a further delay in policy normalisation, in our view.
Further, we expect inflation to rise on a YoY basis till March-22,and to only moderate from 2Q22, helped by sequential easing in global commodity prices. Following the adjustment in reverse repo rates, we expect the RBI to take up repo rate hikes, which in our base case starts from the April meeting, with a cumulative rise of 150bps in fiscal 2023.
Business
PM Modi invites New Zealand investors to partner India in key sectors

Auckland, July 11: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday invited New Zealand investors and business houses to partner India in infrastructure development, civil aviation, logistics, clean energy, urban mobility, water management, waste management and digital economy sectors.
Hailing India’s vibrant startup ecosystem, PM Modi called for closer engagement between the private sectors of both countries in the fields of innovation, fintech and emerging technologies.
Addressing a select group of CEOs and business leaders, PM Modi noted that New Zealand’s strengths in dairy science, horticulture, and forestry, and India’s consumer market, food parks and agri-tech talent should come together to create global food value chains.
The Prime Minister encouraged businesses to expand investment and commercial partnerships and help realise the target of doubling bilateral trade to 7 billion New Zealand dollars (approximately Rs 35,000 crore) by 2030.
PM Modi emphasised that India-New Zealand economic partnership could become a model for inclusive and sustainable trade and a platform for innovation and prosperity.
In the presence of New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the event, PM Modi said India and New Zealand are bound by shared democratic values, respect for the rule of law, diversity, and a common commitment to sustainable development, providing a strong foundation for an ambitious and forward-looking economic partnership.
He described the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as a landmark deal that would add depth and dynamism to the bilateral economic ties, and open new opportunities for market access, investment, services, technology and talent mobility.
According to an official statement, PM Modi also underscored that India’s sustained high growth coupled with young and skilled workforce, expanding middle class, digital revolution, next-generation infrastructure push, and continuing economic reforms, offer significant opportunities for trade, investment, and innovation for companies in New Zealand.
The Prime Minister noted that political stability and sustained growth path has positioned India as a significant contributor to global growth.
Business
Nifty, Sensex post mild weekly loss over escalating West Asia tensions

Mumbai, July 11: After rallying for four consecutive weeks, the Indian equity benchmarks posted mild weekly loss, as escalating tensions in West Asia sent crude prices higher.
Nifty lost 0.26 per cent during the week and edged up 1.02 per cent on the last trading day to reach 24,206. At close, Sensex was up 827 points, or 1.08 per cent, at 77,569. It lost 0.25 per cent during the week.
Indian equities experienced a volatile week, with early optimism giving way to a sharp bout of risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions.
Investor sentiment weakened after fresh military strikes and concerns over the progress of the US–Iran peace negotiations triggered a risk-off mood across global markets.
“However, the sell-off proved to be short-lived, as investor sentiment improved markedly following encouraging Q1 FY27 business updates from the banking and IT sectors, which provided a constructive backdrop for the upcoming earnings season,” an analyst said.
Indian equities gradually recovered in the latter half of the week as crude oil prices declined from nearly $76 per barrel to the $71–72 range, global technology stocks rebounded, and optimism surrounding the ongoing diplomatic discussions helped improve overall market sentiment.
Sustained earnings outperformance in Q1FY27 is likely to reinforce confidence in the FY27 corporate earnings outlook which could help catalyse a recovery in FII inflows, they said.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers through most of the trading sessions, ending the week with net inflows of approximately Rs 4,670 crore.
On the sectoral front, real estate, consumer durables, and IT outperformed, whereas media, FMCG and chemicals lagged. Mid and small-cap segments outperformed the broader market, supported by gains in realty, consumer durables, and metal stocks.
Broad market indices showed divergence with benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 added 1.36 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 rallied 1.26 per cent during the week.
Immediate resistance levels for Nifty are placed at the 24,300 level and the 24,100 level is expected to provide immediate support, followed by the 24,000 level.
Also, immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,800–57,700 zone, while resistance is seen at 58,200–58,300 zone.
Investors remain keen on Q1FY27 earnings and the domestic inflation print, US core inflation data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials.
“Despite the hawkish tone of the recent FOMC meeting, easing inflationary pressures and slowing growth across the US, the EU, and China have strengthened expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance,” a market participant said.
Business
Ethanol blending began under UPA; E20 transition after years of testing, consultations: Petroleum Ministry

New Delhi, July 10: India’s ethanol blending programme did not begin under the present government, and the initiative has a long institutional history and milestones, the Petroleum Ministry said on Friday, adding that the transition from E10 to E20 ethanol blending was not based on assumptions, but on years of testing, manufacturer consultations and field experience.
“A pilot ethanol blending programme was launched in 2001, formally announced in 2004, and E5 (5 per cent ethanol blending) was rolled out across several states by 2006. The policy framework was subsequently notified in the Gazette of India in January 2013 during the UPA government. These are matters of public record,” said the ministry in a detailed statement.
India had set a target of achieving 5 per cent ethanol blending across 10 states and union territories. Unfortunately, despite that ambition, blending remained stuck at around 1.5 per cent until 2014, it informed.
“Nobody questioned ethanol as a fuel. That had already been settled globally. The real challenge was how India could produce sufficient quantities of ethanol,” said the Petroleum Ministry.
At that time, India depended almost entirely on sugarcane, a seasonal crop, with an annual ethanol production capacity of roughly 400 crore litres. Such production levels were inadequate even for modest blending targets.
Recognising this constraint, the government fundamentally changed its approach. With the launch of the National Policy on Biofuels in May 2018, the government began creating the ecosystem necessary to produce ethanol at scale. This became a genuine whole-of-government mission.
“The Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Department of Food & Public Distribution, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Ministry of Heavy Industries, Indian Railways and several other ministries worked in close coordination to expand feedstocks, build infrastructure, support technology, align logistics, create demand certainty and encourage investment,” said the official statement.
It further explained that a landmark step came in August 2021, when India’s Oil Marketing Companies — IOCL, BPCL and HPCL — issued expressions of interest for establishing Dedicated Ethanol Plants (DEPs) in ethanol-deficit regions.
These projects transformed the investment landscape because they offered assured long-term purchase agreements by Oil Marketing Companies; tripartite financing arrangements with public sector banks through escrow mechanisms, substantially reducing investment risk; mandatory supply of ethanol exclusively for the Ethanol Blended Petrol Programme; and these plants naturally required nearly two years to come on stream.
Another important milestone came in June 2021 when NITI Aayog published its comprehensive roadmap about ethanol blending after extensive consultation with automobile manufacturers, oil companies, agricultural experts and other stakeholders.
The report highlighted not only the environmental and energy security benefits of ethanol but also the transformational impact on rural incomes and the agricultural economy.
At that stage, India’s requirement for 10 per cent blending was 500-600 crore litres of ethanol annually. As fresh investments materialised and production capacity expanded, it became evident that the country would soon be capable of producing nearly 1,200 crore litres.
Once the supply side had been secured, it became both logical and responsible to aspire for 20 per cent blending. So, the suggestion that India ‘rushed’ into ethanol blending is simply not borne out by facts, said the ministry.
This has been a journey spanning over two decades from pilot projects in 2001, policy notification in 2013, institutional reforms after 2018, massive investments beginning in 2021, and then a carefully calibrated, phased increase in blending levels.
All stakeholders, including automobile manufacturing companies, testing agencies, OMCs, DFPD, etc., were consulted before rollout, according to the statement.
Before E20 was rolled out, the government undertook several rounds of detailed consultations with all stakeholders, such as automobile manufacturers, technical experts, testing agencies and others to ensure readiness across the ecosystem.
Maruti Suzuki serviced 2.84 crore vehicles during FY 2025-26, including 1.5 crore older, non-E20-certified vehicles, and reported no E20-linked corrosion, abnormal wear or component-life damage.
Hero MotoCorp has reported similar field experience. This real-world evidence is far more reliable than isolated anecdotes.
Advising consumers not to be misled by misinformation, scaremongering or unverified content circulating on social media, the ministry said that ethanol and blended petrol conform to strict BIS specifications and undergo quality checks at every stage from the distillery to the depot to the retail outlet.
“Any procedural lapse anywhere in the supply chain should be dealt with firmly. Chief Secretaries of the states have been requested to ensure strict enforcement and take an iron hand against any instance of adulteration. There can be zero tolerance for lapses that compromise fuel quality,” the ministry said.
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