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RBI set to increase interest rates by another 50-60 bps in 2022

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The minutes of the August 22 Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI highlights that inflation continues to remain the key concern for the MPC members despite a deceleration in the overall price momentum after a peak of 7.8 per cent recorded in April, Acuite Ratings said in a note.

From the policy perspective, there is a clear need felt to frontload rate hikes in tandem with global central banks but at the same time, the pace of the residual hike will also depend on the inflation print over the next few months. The rate action is likely to be accompanied by calibrated withdrawal of money market core liquidity surplus.

Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuite Ratings & Research, said: “MPC minutes indicate that another 50-60 bps of a rate hike should be expected in the forthcoming policy announcements irrespective of the moderation in the inflation trajectory. The likelihood of the Q2FY23 CPI inflation print dropping to less than 6.0 per cent is low, particularly given the pickup in the services sector. What is encouraging to note is the declining inflationary expectations of households which reflects the effectiveness of both the monetary and the fiscal policy actions till now; it will also help in strengthening medium-term growth prospects.”

On the growth front, all members agreed that India’s economic recovery has remained broadly resilient despite the slowdown in the global growth scenario.

The members concurred that India has fared better than many of the other economies under the pandemic and Ukraine war shocks.

Going forward, the pick-up in SW monsoon after initial hiccups, a strong rebound in the contact-intensive services sector, and robust government expenditure is expected to keep the growth trajectory healthy.

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Over 40 oil and gas infra assets damaged in West Asia war: Top IEA official

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New Delhi, March 23: Over 40 energy assets across nine countries in West Asia have been “severely or very severely” damaged due to the Iran war and no country would be immune to the fallout of the disruption in oil and gas supplies, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said in Canberra on Monday.

“The effect of the current disruptions in West Asia is equivalent to the two major oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 natural gas crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine all put together,” Birol remarked.

Addressing journalists at the Australia’s National Press Club, he said that while the oil crises of the 1970s led to a combined loss of around 10 million barrels per day, the present situation has already resulted in a loss of approximately 11 million barrels per day.

“Not only oil and gas, but some of the vital arteries of the global economy — such as petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulphur and helium — their trade is all interrupted, which will have serious consequences for the global economy,” Birol explained.

The IEA announced in early March that it would release a record 400 million barrels from its emergency oil reserves of its member countries to help ease supply shocks and bring down soaring prices in the aftermath of the war in West Asia.

“The IEA is currently in discussions with governments across Asia and Europe regarding the possible release of additional oil if necessary,” media reports cited Birol as saying.

However, with shipping across the Strait of Hormuz close to a complete standstill due to the war, the only true solution to fuel supply disruptions is the reopening of the major trade route, he pointed out.

He further warned that the global economy faces a ’major threat’ if the crisis continues to escalate.

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Iran war costs deepen split in US Congress amid scrutiny of $200 billion funding request

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Washington, March 20: Rising costs of the Iran war and its impact on global markets are deepening divisions in Congress, with Republicans and Democrats questioning the scale and purpose of a proposed funding request that could exceed $200 billion, according to multiple US media reports.

The White House is preparing to seek massive new funding for the conflict, even as scepticism grows within President Donald Trump’s own party over the lack of a clear strategy and timeline, CNN reported. Lawmakers say the administration has yet to fully explain how the money will be used or how long the US military engagement could last.

Trump signalled the request could be substantial, arguing the military needs resources to maintain strength. “We want to be in the best shape, the best shape we’ve ever been in,” he said, adding, “It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top.”

But that argument is facing pushback. Some Republicans have openly rejected further spending, reflecting growing unease about what several described as a potential “endless war”.

“I am a no. I have already told leadership. I am a no on any war supplemental. I am so tired of spending money over there,” Representative Lauren Boebert said, according to CNN. “I have folks in Colorado who can’t afford to live. We need America First policies right now.”

Others are demanding detailed answers before committing support. “What are we doing? We’re talking about boots on the ground. We’re talking about that kind of extended activity,” said Representative Chip Roy. “They got a whole lot more briefing and a whole lot more explaining to do on how we’re going to pay for it and what’s the mission here?”

Fiscal conservatives have also questioned whether the proposed funding could expand further. “It begs the question, how long do they plan to be there? What are the goals? Is this the first $200 billion? Does this turn into a trillion?” Representative Thomas Massie said, CNN reported.

The debate comes as the conflict intensifies in the Gulf. US and allied forces have stepped up operations around the Strait of Hormuz, deploying attack aircraft and helicopters to target Iranian naval assets and reopen critical shipping lanes, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“The A-10 Warthog is now engaged across the southern flank, targeting fast-attack watercraft in the Strait of Hormuz,” General Dan Caine said, adding that Apache helicopters “have joined the fight on the southern flank,” according to the Journal.

The escalation has already shaken global energy markets. Oil prices surged sharply as attacks on infrastructure across the region raised fears of supply disruptions, The New York Times reported.

Analysts warned the economic fallout could deepen if hostilities continue. “Energy warfare has been utilised from day one,” said Anna Jacobs, according to The Washington Post, noting that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected a key global supply route.

At the same time, lawmakers in both parties say they have received limited and incomplete cost assessments, adding to concerns over approving such a large sum. Some Republicans have proposed conditions, including spending offsets or audits of Pentagon finances, before backing any funding bill.

Senate leaders have indicated the path forward remains uncertain. “It remains to be seen” whether the request could pass, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, according to CNN.

Democrats, meanwhile, remain largely opposed to approving funds under current conditions, further complicating the administration’s efforts to secure congressional backing.

The conflict has also triggered broader policy debates within the administration, including whether easing sanctions on Iranian oil could help stabilise global prices, The Washington Post reported. Officials say such steps could bring additional supply to the market, though analysts warn it could also strengthen Iran financially during the war.

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LPG Crisis: How A Simple Digital DAC OTP System Is Plugging A Massive Black-Market Loophole

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India’s cooking gas distribution network has long been plagued by a quiet crisis – subsidised LPG cylinders meant for households routinely ended up in the black market, diverted by unscrupulous delivery personnel and agents. With the LPG crisis now deepening due to the US-Iran war, the government’s answer to this is deceptively simple – an OTP.

The Delivery Authentication Code (DAC) is a one-time-use code used to verify the legitimacy of home LPG cylinder delivery, ensuring the cylinder reaches the rightful customer. When a booking is made, the customer receives the code on their registered mobile number, which must be shown to the delivery person before the cylinder changes hands.

Ever since the crisis began, the government has significantly scaled up this system, with DAC coverage now reaching nearly 72 percent of deliveries, up from 53 percent earlier. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has directed oil companies to ensure the DAC system is used in at least 80 percent of LPG deliveries, making OTP verification mandatory for the majority of cylinders.

Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) have introduced the DAC system – sent via SMS and shared with delivery personnel – to ensure verified delivery, with IVRS/SMS refill booking also implemented nationwide, providing alerts at key stages including booking, cash memo generation, and delivery.

If distributors fail to meet the DAC requirement, the system flags cylinders as still in the agency’s inventory even though they have been delivered -creating a digital paper trail that exposes irregularities and improves transparency across the supply chain.

Consumers can ensure they receive DAC codes by taking these steps:

– Link your mobile number to your LPG consumer ID via your distributor or the Indane/HP/Bharat Gas app.

– Book via IVRS by calling your provider’s helpline – the DAC is sent automatically via SMS upon booking.

– Update details online at iocl.com or your respective oil company’s portal.

– Visit your distributor with photo ID and consumer ID if SMS is not being received.

– If the OTP does not arrive, customers can show their Aadhaar card as an alternate identity verification to receive the cylinder.

With the government pushing toward an 80 percent DAC compliance target, the system represents a low-cost, high-impact fix to a problem that has cost the exchequer significantly. For millions of households, it also means the subsidised cylinder they paid for will actually reach their doorstep.

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