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RBI says momentum in economic recovery to continue in FY23

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India’s economic recovery from the pandemic shock has sustained in FY22 and the momentum is expected to broadly continue through the ongoing FY23, though with risks of downside from the geopolitical shock and its spillovers, said the RBI’s Annual Report for 2021-22 released on Friday.

Despite the risks, the report said the recovery is “getting entrenched and is broadening”, besides the Union Budget for FY22 envisioned the roadmap for ‘India at 100’, with a focus on demand side measures.

The substantial increase in government capital expenditure outlay could crowd-in private investment and “propel a virtuous cycle, thereby improving aggregate demand”.

Furthermore, the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) amounting to Rs 100 lakh crore and the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) involving Rs 6 lakh crore – both targeted for completion by FY25, are also expected to give a major thrust to infrastructure spending, it added.

“The focus on supply side management through ‘process reforms’, facilitating the smoothening and simplification of processes in some sectors where government’s presence as a facilitator or regulator is necessary, would help improve the resilience of the Indian economy.”

Overall consumer and business confidence remains resilient in spite of the third wave on the back of the accelerated pace of vaccination and better prospects for economic activity.

“A full recovery in aggregate demand is, however, contingent on a turnaround in private investment. On the supply side, there is a resurgence in mining and manufacturing sectors. The services sector, which felt the brunt of the pandemic, is staging a broad-based recovery since Q2FY22.”

The report stressed upon reforms in the labour market so as to adapt to the pandemic by reskilling workers.

On financial markets in FY22, the report said that abundance of liquidity and accommodative monetary policies in major economies had pushed financial asset prices to all-time highs. The market was bolstered also by stimulus packages and easing of Covid-19-led restrictions.

The financial markets in India remained vibrant amidst easy liquidity conditions, although the severe second wave of the pandemic during April-May 2021 dampened sentiments. The equity market continued to register double digit growth in FY22 in sync with the global peers with optimism on large scale vaccine rollouts and resurgence in economic activities.

Notably, the direct participation of retail investors in equities continued to increase, with the opening of 3.46 crore Demat accounts during FY22, as against 1.42 crore opened during the previous year. During the fiscal, on an average, 28.8 lakh Demat accounts were opened every month, which is higher than 11.8 lakh per month in the previous year and 4.2 lakh Demat accounts per month in 2019-20, the annual report said.

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India’s CPI inflation estimated at 0.71 pc for Nov, food inflation stays in negative zone

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New Delhi, Dec 12: India’s year-on-year inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was estimated at 0.71 per cent for November this year which was marginally higher than the 0.25 per cent in October, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Friday.

Food inflation stayed in the negative zone during November at (-) 3.91 per cent as prices of food goods fell compared to the same month of the previous year. Food inflation has now stayed negative for the sixth month in a row, easing the burden on household budgets.

However, the increase in headline inflation during November 2025 is mainly attributed to an increase in the inflation of vegetables, eggs, meat and fish, spices, and fuels compared to October, according to an official statement.

The retail inflation had eased further in October, after having plummeted to an over 8-year low of 1.54 per cent in September, as prices of food items and goods across sectors fell during the month.

The declining trend in food prices continued in October as food inflation fell deeper in the negative zone at (-) 5.02 per cent from (-) 2.28 per cent in September.

However, the overall outlook for inflation remains benign.

The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) last week slashed its forecast for India’s inflation rate for the financial year 2025-26 to 2 per cent from 2.6 per cent predicted in October due to the sharp decline in food prices and the GST rate cuts playing out.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced a reduction in the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier, as inflation had come down and the monetary policy could focus on boosting growth.

Malhotra said that the surge in economic growth to 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year and the sharp decline in inflation to 1.7 per cent had provided a rare “Goldilocks period” for the Indian economy.

“The MPC noted that headline inflation has eased significantly and is likely to be softer than the earlier projections, primarily on account of the exceptionally benign food prices. Reflecting these favourable conditions, the projections for average headline inflation in 2025-26 and Q1:2026-27 have been further revised downwards.”

Malhotra also pointed out that core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) remained largely contained in September-October, despite continued price pressures exerted by precious metals. Excluding gold, core inflation moderated to 2.6 per cent in October. Overall, the decline in inflation has become more generalised, he added.

The RBI Governor observed that food supply prospects have improved on the back of higher kharif production, healthy rabi sowing, adequate reservoir levels and conducive soil moisture. Barring some metals, international commodity prices are likely to moderate going forward.

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Sensex, Nifty extend gains as metal stocks rally

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Mumbai, Dec 12: Indian stock markets gained for the second straight session on Friday, supported by a strong global rally and heavy buying in metal stocks.

Sentiment also improved after Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with US President Donald Trump on Thursday to discuss strengthening economic ties, as both countries continue working toward a trade agreement.

At the closing bell, the Sensex had risen 449.53 points, or 0.53 per cent, to 85,267.66.

The Nifty also moved higher, adding 148.40 points, or 0.57 per cent, to trade at 26,046.95.

“In the near term, the trend is likely to remain constructive as long as the index holds above 25,900, which is expected to serve as a key support level,” experts said.

“On the higher side, the index may move towards 26,300 in the short term,” they added.

Several major stocks led the gains on the Nifty, including Tata Steel, Eternal, UltraTech Cement, L&T, Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance.

However, some stocks came under pressure due to profit booking. HUL, Sun Pharma, Asian Paints, ITC, Power Grid and HCL Tech were among the top losers.

In the broader markets, the Nifty MidCap index rose 1.18 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index advanced 0.94 per cent.

Sector-wise, the Nifty Metal index led the rally with a jump of 2.63 per cent, followed by realty, consumer durables and oil and gas. The FMCG and media sectors slipped into the red.

Meanwhile, silver prices in India continued their sharp upward trend. Silver futures crossed the historic Rs 2 lakh per kg mark for the first time on Friday, extending a rally that has pushed the metal up nearly 130 per cent so far this year.

Experts said that the combined boost from global cues, strong sectoral performance and improving geopolitical engagement helped the markets end the week on a positive note.

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PLI for food processing industries generates about 3.39 lakh direct and indirect jobs

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New Delhi, Dec 12: The production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for food processing industries (PLISFPI) has generated about 3.39 lakh direct and indirect employment opportunities so far, the Parliament was informed on Friday.

Minister of State for Food Processing Industries, Ravneet Singh, said that 170 applications have been approved under various categories of the PLISFPI till September 2025.

“The scheme has led to an increase in food processing capacity of 35.00 lakh MT per annum in the Country,” the minister told the Rajya Sabha in a written reply to a question.

The incentives under the PLISFPI are admissible where the entire chain of manufacturing processes, including primary processing, of the food products applied for coverage under the scheme takes place in India.

According to the minister, total export of agricultural processed food products approved under the PLISFPI has increased with a CAGR of 13.23 per cent as on 2024-25 with reference to 2019-20.

Under the PLISFPI, a cumulative investment of Rs 9,207 crore has been made by the approved applicants, the Parliament was informed earlier. Also, 25 mega food parks approved by the ministry are currently operational across the country, Union Food Processing Industries Minister Chirag Paswan told the Lok Sabha in a reply.

The Ministry of Food Processing Industries (MoFPI) is also implementing a centrally sponsored PM Formalisation of Micro food processing Enterprises (PMFME) scheme for providing financial, technical and business support for setting up/upgradation of micro food processing enterprises in the country. The scheme primarily adopts the One District One Product (ODOP) approach aimed at fostering balanced regional development across all districts of the country.

The initiative aims to select, brand, and promote at least One Product from each District (One District One Product) of the country for enabling holistic socio-economic growth across all regions, he added. Under the ODOP initiative, products have been selected by states/UTs by taking into consideration the existing ecosystem on the ground in the districts. ODOP have been approved for 726 districts across 35 states/UTs under the scheme.

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