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RBI says momentum in economic recovery to continue in FY23

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India’s economic recovery from the pandemic shock has sustained in FY22 and the momentum is expected to broadly continue through the ongoing FY23, though with risks of downside from the geopolitical shock and its spillovers, said the RBI’s Annual Report for 2021-22 released on Friday.

Despite the risks, the report said the recovery is “getting entrenched and is broadening”, besides the Union Budget for FY22 envisioned the roadmap for ‘India at 100’, with a focus on demand side measures.

The substantial increase in government capital expenditure outlay could crowd-in private investment and “propel a virtuous cycle, thereby improving aggregate demand”.

Furthermore, the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) amounting to Rs 100 lakh crore and the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) involving Rs 6 lakh crore – both targeted for completion by FY25, are also expected to give a major thrust to infrastructure spending, it added.

“The focus on supply side management through ‘process reforms’, facilitating the smoothening and simplification of processes in some sectors where government’s presence as a facilitator or regulator is necessary, would help improve the resilience of the Indian economy.”

Overall consumer and business confidence remains resilient in spite of the third wave on the back of the accelerated pace of vaccination and better prospects for economic activity.

“A full recovery in aggregate demand is, however, contingent on a turnaround in private investment. On the supply side, there is a resurgence in mining and manufacturing sectors. The services sector, which felt the brunt of the pandemic, is staging a broad-based recovery since Q2FY22.”

The report stressed upon reforms in the labour market so as to adapt to the pandemic by reskilling workers.

On financial markets in FY22, the report said that abundance of liquidity and accommodative monetary policies in major economies had pushed financial asset prices to all-time highs. The market was bolstered also by stimulus packages and easing of Covid-19-led restrictions.

The financial markets in India remained vibrant amidst easy liquidity conditions, although the severe second wave of the pandemic during April-May 2021 dampened sentiments. The equity market continued to register double digit growth in FY22 in sync with the global peers with optimism on large scale vaccine rollouts and resurgence in economic activities.

Notably, the direct participation of retail investors in equities continued to increase, with the opening of 3.46 crore Demat accounts during FY22, as against 1.42 crore opened during the previous year. During the fiscal, on an average, 28.8 lakh Demat accounts were opened every month, which is higher than 11.8 lakh per month in the previous year and 4.2 lakh Demat accounts per month in 2019-20, the annual report said.

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India pushing ahead to diversify exports amid US tariff turmoil: Report

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New Delhi, Jan 5: When India reached a free-trade agreement with New Zealand in a record time of nine months towards the end of December, this was a clear signal of New Delhi’s plan to diversify the country’s exports away from the US and this approach is expected to gather pace going ahead, according to an article in the South China Morning Post.

The article highlights that ever since US President Donald Trump imposed penal import tariffs of 50 per cent on India last year, New Delhi has maintained a resolute approach to the punitive levies, even as it has kept the door open to negotiations.

The article points out that the trade deal with New Zealand last month was the third such deal that came close on the heels of the free trade agreements with the United Kingdom and Oman.

The US is India’s largest export market, receiving about 18 per cent of its total goods exports, including items such as garments and leather products, with a vast diaspora readily snapping up products shipped from their homeland.

While it remains unclear whether the two countries can negotiate a trade deal given India’s firm position on opening sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy to US products, experts are sceptical that Washington will significantly roll back its tariffs, the article states.

However, it observes that India is not putting all its eggs in the US basket and is actively seeking free trade pacts with other countries to diversify its export markets amid the uncertainty created by the Trump administration.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal has already said that India’s effort to diversify trade across geographies and sectors is paying off. There is positive export momentum that is likely to consolidate in the coming months.

The article also highlights that India’s exports in 2025 showed strong resilience and growth, reaching a record US$825.25 billion in the financial year 2024-25. The robust growth has continued into the current financial year, with exports in the April to November period rising 5.43 per cent to US$562.13 billion.

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Sensex, Nifty post mild losses over latest geo-political tensions

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Mumbai, Jan 5: The Indian benchmark indices traded flat with a mild negative bias on Monday over losses in IT stocks and the latest US-Venezuela tensions.

Even as Indian companies showed signs of improving quarterly earnings, optimism was blunted by caution over the implications of US military action in Venezuela.

As of 9.30 am, Sensex eased 62 points, or 0.07 per cent to 85,699 and Nifty gained 9 points, or 0.03 per cent to 26,319.

Main broad-cap indices performed almost in line with benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 unchanged, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.36 per cent.

ONGC and SBI were among major gainers on the Nifty. Among sectoral gainers, Nifty IT was the major loser, down 1.41 per cent. In Nifty media, metal and PSU sectors were the major gainers up 0.84 per cent, up 0.70 per cent and 0.79 per cent, respectively.

Immediate support lies at 26,150–26,200 zone, and resistance placed at 26,450–26,500 zone, market watchers said.

Analysts said that major geopolitical events at the start of 2026 could have serious consequences and could affect the market.

The US action in Venezuela could destabilise global geopolitics. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to continue, Iranian protests may worsen and the Iranian regime may react in light of US President Donald Trump’s threat of intervention, and China may use the opportunity to annex Taiwan, they said.

A positive for India from the Venezuelan crisis would be medium to long-term bearish impact for crude, they said.

The market may remain resilient in the short term due to its all-time high and bullish momentum. The Bank Nifty is strong due to strong credit growth, they said, adding that Q3 banking and financial results would be impressive.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index added 1.07 per cent, and Shenzhen gained 1.87 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 2.557 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index eased 0.12 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 2.87 per cent.

The US markets were mostly in the green zone on the last trading day even as Nasdaq lost 0.03 per cent. The S&P 500 gained 0.19 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.66 per cent.

On January 2, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought equities worth Rs 290 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 677 crore.

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Nifty surges over 1 pc this week led by bank, auto stocks

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Mumbai, Jan 3: The Indian equity benchmarks closed on a strong note this week, touching fresh all-time highs amid strong performance in the banking and auto sectors.

Nifty surged 1.05 per cent during the week and 0.70 per cent on the last trading day to 26,328. At close, Sensex was up 760 points or 0.67 per cent at 85,762. It surged 0.89 per cent during the week.

Bank Nifty also continued its outperformance and scaled fresh record highs above the 60,200 mark.

The Indian equities traded in a cautious tone till New Year, weighed down by persistent FII outflows and heightened global uncertainties. On New Year, the indices ended on a flat note, and on the last day of trading week, they touched fresh all-time highs.

Strong momentum was observed in the auto and PSU banking sectors, while sectoral rotation was evident in utilities as they gained traction on hopes of rising demand and increased industrial activity. Robust December auto sales indicate a broader uptick in economic activity during the festive-driven quarter.

Improving asset quality and expectations of accelerated credit growth drew investor interest toward PSU banking stocks, analysts said.

Conversely, FMCG index dipped 4 per cent for the week after the government announced a higher excise duty on cigarettes.

Broader indices outperformed benchmark indices for the week, with the Nifty Midcap100 up 1.74 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 edged up 0.77 per cent.

Precious metals continued their momentum, as trade disparity, supply constraints, geo-political tension, rate cut view and FII outflows continue to test the near-term risk appetite of investors.

According to analysts, a sustained hold by Nifty above 26,300 could accelerate the rally toward 26,500, with an extended upside potential toward 26,700 on strong follow-through. Bank Nifty is likely to continue outperforming the Nifty index in the near term, they added.

Key cues for investors going forward include US payroll and unemployment data for global market direction. Markets may move within a steady range as participants wait for clearer earnings‑led triggers and clarity on the India-US trade deal, market watchers said.

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