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RBI says momentum in economic recovery to continue in FY23

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India’s economic recovery from the pandemic shock has sustained in FY22 and the momentum is expected to broadly continue through the ongoing FY23, though with risks of downside from the geopolitical shock and its spillovers, said the RBI’s Annual Report for 2021-22 released on Friday.

Despite the risks, the report said the recovery is “getting entrenched and is broadening”, besides the Union Budget for FY22 envisioned the roadmap for ‘India at 100’, with a focus on demand side measures.

The substantial increase in government capital expenditure outlay could crowd-in private investment and “propel a virtuous cycle, thereby improving aggregate demand”.

Furthermore, the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) amounting to Rs 100 lakh crore and the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) involving Rs 6 lakh crore – both targeted for completion by FY25, are also expected to give a major thrust to infrastructure spending, it added.

“The focus on supply side management through ‘process reforms’, facilitating the smoothening and simplification of processes in some sectors where government’s presence as a facilitator or regulator is necessary, would help improve the resilience of the Indian economy.”

Overall consumer and business confidence remains resilient in spite of the third wave on the back of the accelerated pace of vaccination and better prospects for economic activity.

“A full recovery in aggregate demand is, however, contingent on a turnaround in private investment. On the supply side, there is a resurgence in mining and manufacturing sectors. The services sector, which felt the brunt of the pandemic, is staging a broad-based recovery since Q2FY22.”

The report stressed upon reforms in the labour market so as to adapt to the pandemic by reskilling workers.

On financial markets in FY22, the report said that abundance of liquidity and accommodative monetary policies in major economies had pushed financial asset prices to all-time highs. The market was bolstered also by stimulus packages and easing of Covid-19-led restrictions.

The financial markets in India remained vibrant amidst easy liquidity conditions, although the severe second wave of the pandemic during April-May 2021 dampened sentiments. The equity market continued to register double digit growth in FY22 in sync with the global peers with optimism on large scale vaccine rollouts and resurgence in economic activities.

Notably, the direct participation of retail investors in equities continued to increase, with the opening of 3.46 crore Demat accounts during FY22, as against 1.42 crore opened during the previous year. During the fiscal, on an average, 28.8 lakh Demat accounts were opened every month, which is higher than 11.8 lakh per month in the previous year and 4.2 lakh Demat accounts per month in 2019-20, the annual report said.

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OPEC+ agrees to oil output quota hike amid Hormuz blockade, Kuwait oil exports zero

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New Delhi, May 3: Amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to raise oil output targets in June.

Multiple reports say that seven OPEC+ countries have agreed to raise oil output targets by about 188,000 barrels per day next month. The output hike would rather be largely symbolic until Strait of Hormuz reopens.

This will be the third consecutive monthly increase amid the geopolitical crisis and the departure of the UAE from the group.

With the UAE leaving, OPEC+ includes 21 members, including Iran.

However, only the seven nations (and the UAE) have been involved in monthly production decisions. Iran, also an OPEC+ member, has seen its own exports dwindle amid the blockade.

Crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, down 7.70 million bpd from February.

Last week, the UAE announced it was leaving the OPEC and OPEC+ cartels in what is seen as a major setback to the group of oil-exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia. The UAE said the decision reflected its “long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”.

The exit of the UAE is expected to weaken the oil cartel at a time when the Persian Gulf countries have taken a huge hit to their exports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by an embattled Iran. The UAE accounts for around 15 per cent of the OPEC oil exports.

Reports also surfaced that Kuwait exported zero barrels of crude oil in April, a situation not seen since the 1991 Iraqi occupation, due to blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, impacting around 2 million barrels per day. The blockade has led to a complete disruption in Kuwaiti exports.

Meanwhile, oil prices dropped after reports said Iran proposed fresh talks with the United States using Pakistan as a mediator.

West Texas Intermediate fell more than five per cent and dropped below $100 per barrel. It later recovered to $101.7.

Brent crude also fell more than three per cent to $106.98 before rising again to $108.4.

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Gold dips 0.81 pc this week over waning hopes of Fed rate cuts

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New Delhi, Gold prices dipped 0.81 per cent during the week as negotiations between the United States and Iran stalled, denting hopes for near‑term interest‑rate cuts.

On Friday, MCX gold June futures gained 0.01 per cent while MCX silver May futures inched up 0.49 per cent. Currently, gold futures stand at Rs 1,51,363, while silver futures stand at Rs 2,47,500 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,50,263 on Thursday, down from Rs 1,51,495 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

In international markets, bullion dropped as much as 1.2 per cent on Friday after gaining 1.5 per cent in the previous session, weighed down by rising energy costs and firmer Treasury yields. Gold has fallen nearly 14 per cent since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, traders said.

The Iranian administration maintained that the US blockade would have to end before the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, according to multiple media reports. Iranian state media said that Tehran had delivered a fresh proposal for talks to Pakistani mediators, but both sides signalled they were waiting for the other to make the first move.

“While diplomatic engagements remained active, the absence of a decisive breakthrough kept the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in prices,” an analyst said.

US inflation data showed the headline PCE price index at 3.5 per cent in March, at its highest level in nearly three years, reinforcing the view that policy rates may stay higher for longer.

Analysts said that rising energy prices could lead to central banks maintaining interest rates higher for longer, which would pressure non-yielding assets like gold.

Crude oil traded with heightened volatility through the week but retained a firm undertone, holding near elevated levels as concerns around potential supply disruptions persisted. The market continues to price in risks to global oil flows, limiting meaningful downside and providing support on dips.

Precious metals entered a phase of corrective consolidation following their recent safe-haven rally, analysts said.

Gold and silver witnessed intermittent profit booking at higher levels through the week, while selective buying interest emerged near key support zones. Safe-haven demand has eased marginally but continues to lend support on declines amid lingering uncertainty.

COMEX gold traded near the $4,620–$4,650 zone, and a major resistance is seen at the $4,700–$4,760 levels. Overall, the trend remains constructive with a cautious near-term bias, with strength dependent on a breakout above resistance.

COMEX Silver is currently trading above $76, and the broader trend remains constructive but with a cautious near-term bias, market participants said.

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Global crude prices rise 0.73 pc as US-Iran talks stall

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New Delhi, Crude oil prices rose on Friday as efforts to resolve the Iran crisis reached a stalemate, with Tehran continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz and Washington restricting Iranian crude exports.

Brent futures for July on Intercontinental Exchange gained $0.81, or 0.73 per cent, to $111.21 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 31 cents, or 0.30 per cent, to $105.37. Both benchmarks have posted gains for four consecutive months, analysts noted.

Brent crude oil had crossed $120 per barrel for the first time in 4 years, heightening inflation concerns and putting pressure on global markets.

Market participants flagged new supply concerns after Brent’s June contract, which expired on Thursday, hit $126.41 a barrel, its highest level since March 2022.

British and European central banks cautioned about rising inflation, while the United States is working towards a coalition of allied countries and shipping companies to ensure secure transit through Hormuz.

A ceasefire though in effect since April 8 felt shaky, as on Thursday evening, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said it was unrealistic to expect quick outcomes from negotiations with the US, according to multiple reports.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are boosting inflation and complicating policy. Asia faces greater economic risks from the energy shock, he added.

The price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased by Rs 993, starting Friday, and after the revision, a 19-kg cylinder will now cost Rs 3,071.5 in Delhi.

However, there has been no change in the price of domestic LPG cylinders for 33 crore users, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) said in a statement.

This is the third time that the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased since February 28, when the US-Israel and Iran war began.

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