Business
RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley
The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.
“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.
The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.
Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.
Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.
The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.
However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.
Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.
Business
Eco Survey aims to fast-track India’s dream of realising Viksit Bharat goal: Industry
New Delhi, Jan 31: The Economic Survey 2024-25 is another step to fast-track India’s dream of realising the long-term vision for Viksit Bharat, industry leaders said on Friday.
The Survey rightly acknowledges the role of the private sector in nation-building and is forthright in its call for lowering the cost of business through deregulation and “getting out of the way of business” to accelerate growth and create jobs amid a challenging global environment, CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee said.
The Survey displays a futuristic vision by exhorting the nation to focus on key priority areas, namely attracting foreign investment for emerging as a competitive and innovative economy, strengthening domestic supply side capability and resilience, taking a calibrated approach towards climate change and energy transition and focus on education and skilling of the youth to match global technology advancements, he said.
Moreover, it also focuses on “raising productivity of the primary sector and above all improving governance while creating trust by launching ease of doing business 2.0”, Banerjee added.
Going forward, CII shares the outlook articulated by the Survey on India’s growth prospects by projecting a GDP growth rate in the range of 6.3-6.8 per cent for 2025-26 versus 6.4 per cent in the current year on account of the fragile external milieu and current state of domestic demand.
The Survey mentions that inflation is on a credible downtrend and the current account deficit is within the comfort level, which are very positive takeaways.
According to Grant Thornton Bharat Partner and Financial Services Risk Leader Vivek Iyer, balancing regulation and innovation while keeping an eye on the financial stability risks seems to be the key message of the Economic Survey.
“We see this as an indication to move towards more principle-based regulation vis-a-vis the current approach of operational guidelines. This also means the growth of a self-regulatory organisations (SRO) ecosystem in India and we can expect more formal recognition of many SROs in the year to come,” Iyer mentioned.
Business
Sensex, Nifty surge as markets cheer Economic Survey ahead of Budget
Mumbai, Jan 31: The Indian stock market on Friday continued its rise for the fourth straight day as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2024-25 in Parliament ahead of the Union Budget 2025-26.
The Economic Survey pegs India’s GDP growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent for 2025-26.
The BSE Sensex touched an intra-day high of 77,549.92 before closing at 77,500.57 by gaining 740.76 points or 0.97 per cent. The NSE Nifty ended 258.90 points, or 1.11 per cent, higher at 23,508.40. The index moved between 23,530.70 and 23,277.40 during the day.
The week concludes on a mixed note — heavy selling at the start, a brief recovery, and now a wait-and-watch approach ahead of the budget, market experts said.
Only four stocks on the 30-share BSE Sensex traded lower — ITC Hotels which was down by 4.24 per cent, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, and TCS.
Meanwhile, the top gainers on Sensex were Adani Ports & SEZ, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank and others.
On Nifty, 45 out of 50 stocks ended in the green, and the biggest gainers were Trent, BEL, Tata Consumer Products, Titan and more.
However, the top losers include Bharti Airtel, ITC Hotels, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and others.
Consumer durables was the top-performing sector rising 2.09 per cent, followed by auto, realty, oil, and FMCG indices which were up over 1 per cent each.
However, IT, Metal, and Media stocks were also trading higher and the Nifty Bank index was flat.
In the broader market, the BSE Midcap was up 1.14 per cent, while the BSE Smallcap gained 1.24 per cent.
On the NSE, 1,933 stocks advanced, while 636 stocks declined during the trading session. Additionally, 18 stocks hit their 52-week highs, while 46 stocks touched 52-week lows.
The Economic Survey 2024-25 pegs India’s GDP growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent for 2025-26.
According to the survey, the Modi 3.0 govt will continue its emphasis on micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and good rabi crop production to accelerate growth and employment in the economy.
Business
Budget Session To Feature Key Economic & Policy Bills Shaping India’s Fiscal Landscape
New Delhi: Following the presentation of the Economic Survey on January 31 and the Union Budget on February 1, the Budget Session 2025 is poised to address a range of significant legislative matters.
This year’s session will not only include the introduction and passage of key bills but also crucial financial discussions that will shape India’s fiscal landscape.
Series Of Important Bills Likely To Be Taken Up
A series of important bills are likely to be taken up during the session. These include the Banking Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2024, aimed at strengthening banking regulations and oversight, and the Railways (Amendment) Bill, 2024, which focuses on enhancing the operational efficiency of the Indian Railways.
Another notable proposal is the Disaster Management (Amendment) Bill, 2024, which seeks to improve disaster response mechanisms across the country.
Additionally, the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill, 2024 will propose updates to the laws surrounding oil exploration and extraction, while the Boilers Bill, 2024 is set to introduce new safety and operational standards for boilers in industrial applications.
Among other bills likely to be introduced is the Readjustment of Representation of Scheduled Tribes in Assembly Constituencies of the State of Goa Bill, 2024, which will address the reallocation of assembly constituencies to better represent scheduled tribes in the state.
The Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2024 and the Mussalman Waqf (Repeal) Bill, 2024 are also expected to bring reforms to the management of religious endowments.
Maritime Laws To See Several Updates
Maritime laws will see several updates, with the Bills of Lading Bill, 2024, Carriage of Goods by Sea Bill, 2024, Coastal Shipping Bill, 2024, and the Merchant Shipping Bill, 2024 all set to modernize shipping regulations.
Above all, the Finance Bill, 2025 will be central to implementing the budgetary proposals and tax reforms which will be announced by the finance minister on February 1.
Other key bills include the Protection of Interests in Aircraft Objects Bill, 2025, which will safeguard financial interests related to aviation, and the Immigration and Foreigners Bill, 2025, which will bring changes to immigration and foreigner regulations in India.
In terms of financial business, the session will see the discussion and voting on Demands for Grants for 2025-26, followed by the introduction, consideration, and passage of the related Appropriation Bill.
The Discussion and Voting on Demands for Grants for 2025-26 is an essential aspect of parliamentary procedures, allowing for the approval of government spending for the upcoming fiscal year while promoting accountability and transparency.
Demands for Grants are essentially requests made by the government to Parliament, specifying the amount of money it needs to meet its expenses for a given year.
These expenses cover a wide range of areas, such as infrastructure, healthcare, defence, education, welfare programs, and more. Each ministry or department submits its own Demands for Grants, detailing the specific amounts needed to fund its activities and programs.
Additionally, the Second and Final Batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants for 2024-25 will be reviewed, along with the introduction and passage of the relevant Appropriation Bill.
What Are 2nd & Final Batch Of Supplementary Demands For Grants For 2024-25
The Second and Final Batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants for 2024-25 refers to additional funds that the government seeks to allocate after the presentation of the annual budget for the fiscal year. These supplementary demands arise when there are changes in the government’s spending needs, which were not anticipated during the initial budget preparation.
The session will also address the Demands for Excess Grants for 2021-22, which will require discussion, voting, and the introduction of a related Appropriation Bill.
Demands for Excess Grants for 2021-22 refer to additional funds that the government seeks to appropriate for the financial year 2021-22 when the expenditure incurred by various ministries or departments exceeded the amount originally approved by Parliament in the budget for that fiscal year.
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