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RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley

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The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.

The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.

Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.

Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.

The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.

However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.

Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.

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Share market ends in green, Sensex settles at 78,699

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Mumbai, Dec 27: The domestic benchmark indices ended with gains on Friday as buying was seen in pharma, auto, IT, financial service, FMCG, media, and private bank sectors on Nifty.

Sensex ended at 78,699.07, up by 226.59 points or 0.29 per cent and Nifty settled at 23,813.40, up by 63.20 points or 0.27 per cent.

Nifty Bank ended at 51,311.30, up by 140.60 points, or 0.27 per cent. The Nifty Midcap 100 index closed at 56,979.80 after dropping 145.90 points, or 0.26 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index closed at 18,755.85, after rising 27.20 points, or 0.15 per cent.

On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), 1,946 shares ended in green and 2,026 shares in red, whereas there was no change in 115 shares.

According to experts, “The Christmas week trading ended on a subdued note; a lack of major triggers and caution ahead of the swearing in of the US Republican Party administration continued to impact the sentiment.”

“While the rupee dropped to a new low, weighed down by the expectation of fewer Fed rate cuts, a widening trade deficit, and weak economic growth,” they added.

On the sectoral front, selling was seen in the PSU Bank, Metal, Realty, Energy, Infra and Commodities sectors on Nifty.

In the Sensex pack, M&M, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Sun Pharma, Nestle India, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were the top gainers. SBI, Tata Steel, Zomato, UltraTech Cement, HCL Tech, L&T, Titan, TCS and Power Grid were the top losers.

The Indian rupee closed at a new low of 85.54 per dollar. The previous close of the Indian currency was 85.26.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2,376.67 crore on December 26, while domestic institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 3,336.16 crore on the same day.

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Lexus LF-ZC Concept Makes India Debut at Bharat Mobility Expo 2025

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Lexus is set to debut its futuristic LF-ZC Concept, a battery electric vehicle (BEV), at the Bharat Mobility Expo 2025 from January 17 to 22. The concept showcases advanced aerodynamics with its sharply raked C-pillar, coupe-like roofline, sleek headlamps, closed grille, and strategically positioned air vents.

Measuring 4,750mm in length, 1,880mm in width, and 1,390mm in height, with a 2,890mm wheelbase, the LF-ZC is designed for both performance and efficiency. Central to its innovation is a prismatic battery pack, which reduces weight and doubles the range compared to traditional EV batteries, underscoring Lexus’ commitment to cutting-edge technology.

The Lexus LF-ZC concept redefines electric mobility with its futuristic interior and advanced features. A standout innovation is the “Buttler,” an AI-powered voice assistant that learns driver preferences to personalize settings based on in-car data. The cabin includes a sleek digital instrument panel and two screens on either side of the steering wheel—one for drive modes, gear selection, and ADAS controls, and the other for managing entertainment, climate, and phone functions.

Additionally, a co-driver display enhances convenience by controlling infotainment and apps. Built on a shared platform with future Toyota and Lexus EVs, the LF-ZC is designed for efficiency, boasting a drag coefficient of just 0.2. High-spec variants will deliver an impressive 1,000 km range, while lower-spec models will offer reduced ranges. Set to enter production in 2026, this concept combines innovation and efficiency to shape the future of luxury electric vehicles.

The Bharat Mobility Expo 2025, set to take place from January 17 to 22 in New Delhi, promises to be a landmark event showcasing the future of sustainable and innovative transportation. Bringing together global and domestic players in the mobility sector, the expo will feature groundbreaking concepts, advanced technologies, and eco-friendly solutions designed to redefine the transportation landscape. With major brands like Lexus unveiling visionary models such as the LF-ZC concept, the event is set to highlight the shift towards electric and sustainable mobility. This platform will not only showcase cutting-edge advancements but also pave the way for discussions on the future of mobility in India and beyond.

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Dr Singh’s reforms inspired countless young economists like me: Gita Gopinath

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New Delhi, Dec 27: Condolence messages from economists mourning the death of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh poured in on Friday, with IMF Deputy Director Gita Gopinath stating that the economic reforms he ushered in as finance minister in 1991 had inspired countless young economists like her.

“Dr. Manmohan Singh’s 1991 budget unshackled India’s economy, significantly enhancing the economic prospects for hundreds of millions of Indians. His visionary reforms inspired countless young economists like me. Rest in peace, Dr. Manmohan Singh,” Gita Gopinath said on X.

Sanjeev Sanyal, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), said that his generation of Indians was the creation of the economic reforms introduced by Finance Minister Manmohan Singh and Prime Minister Rao in 1991.

“As I have said before, the two most significant years of the twentieth century for India were 1947 and 1991 — one brought political freedom and the other economic freedom. Manmohan Singh will always be remembered for announcing the Great Liberalisation…” Sanyal said.

Condolence messages also came in from industrialists for the former Prime Minister and former finance minister who had played a key role in opening up the Indian economy and breaking away from the erstwhile licence-permit raj that had shackled industry.

JSW Group chairman and MD, Sajjan Jindal, said; “Saddened by the passing of Dr. Manmohan Singh ji, former Prime Minister of India and the visionary leader behind India’s economic liberalisation. A statesman of humility and wisdom-India owes him a debt of gratitude.”

The US-India Business Council expressed deep condolences following the passing of Dr Singh, highlighting his significant contributions to strengthening the relationship between the United States and India.

USIBC praised Dr Singh for his pivotal role in in the 2008 Civil Nuclear Agreement between the two countries and economic reforms that shaped modern bilateral ties.

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