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RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley

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The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.

The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.

Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.

Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.

The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.

However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.

Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.

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FM Sitharaman embarks on Bhutan visit to deepen economic, developmental cooperation

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New Delhi, Oct 30: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday embarked on an official visit to Bhutan to further deepen economic and developmental cooperation between the neighbouring countries.

The visit of the Indian delegation from the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, is slated from October 30-November 2, according to an official statement.

The visit underscores India’s enduring partnership with Bhutan, rooted in mutual respect, trust, and shared commitment to progress and prosperity in the region, it added.

Finance Minister is scheduled to call on the King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, and Prime Minister Dasho Tshering Tobgay.

She will also hold a bilateral meeting with the Bhutan Finance Minister Lekey Dorji to discuss avenues for further strengthening India-Bhutan economic and financial cooperation.

FM Sitharaman will begin her official tour with a visit to the historic Sangchen Choekhor Monastery, established in 1765 and home to over 100 monks engaged in advanced Buddhist studies, according to the statement.

She will visit and observe several key projects being implemented with support of the Government of India. These include the Kurichhu Hydropower Plant Dam and Powerhouse, the Gyalsung Academy, the Sangchen Choekhor Monastery and Punakha Dzong.

Sitharaman will attend presentations on key developmental initiatives, including the energy sector of Bhutan by Druk Green Power Corporation Limited (DGPC); Bhutan’s 21st Century Economic Roadmap; Banking/Financial sector in Bhutan by Druk PNB and the Bank of Bhutan; and The Gelephu Mindfulness City project

The Finance Minister will also visit the Cottage and Small Industries (CSI) Market, where she will witness a transaction using India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), reflecting the growing digital and financial connectivity between the two nations.

According to the official statement, Sitharaman will visit the Punakha Dzong — Bhutan’s second-oldest and second-largest dzong.

On the way to the Punakha Dzong, she will also interact with Bhutanese farmers to understand their agricultural practices, challenges, and opportunities.

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IMW 2025: PM Modi to spell out reforms in maritime sector today

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Mumbai, Oct 29: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the Maritime Leaders Conclave and chair the Global Maritime CEO Forum at India Maritime Week (IMW) 2025, on Wednesday, during which he will spell out the reforms in the maritime sector.

The Global Maritime CEO Forum, the flagship event of IMW 2025, will bring together CEOs of global maritime companies, major investors, policy-makers, innovators, and international partners to deliberate on the future of the global maritime ecosystem. The Forum will serve as a key platform for dialogue on sustainable maritime growth, resilient supply chains, green shipping, and inclusive blue economy strategies.

PM Modi in his post on X on Tuesday said, “Looking forward to being in Mumbai tomorrow, 29th October, to attend programmes relating to the ongoing India Maritime Week 2025. I will speak at the Maritime Leaders Conclave and also chair the Global Maritime CEO Forum. This is a great forum to build collaborations in the maritime sector and highlight India’s reforms in the same.”

The Prime Minister’s participation reflects his deep commitment to an ambitious, future-oriented maritime transformation, aligned with the Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047. This long-term vision, built on four strategic pillars – port-led development, shipping and shipbuilding, seamless logistics, and maritime skill-building – aims to position India among the world’s leading maritime powers.

IMW 2025 serves as the Union government’s premier global platform to translate this vision into action, bringing together leading stakeholders across shipping, ports, shipbuilding, cruise tourism, and blue economy finance, said the government release.

Under the theme ‘Uniting Oceans, One Maritime Vision’, the conclave, which began on October 27, will conclude on October 31. It will showcase India’s strategic roadmap to emerge as a global maritime hub and a leader in the Blue Economy.

IMW 2025 will draw participation from over 85 countries, featuring more than 1,00,000 delegates, 500+ exhibitors and 350+ international speakers.

Meanwhile, Union Minister for Ports, Shipping and Waterways Sarbananda Sonowal on Tuesday said that India’s maritime sector forms the backbone of its economy, with over 95 per cent of the nation’s trade by volume moving through the sea. Under the Net Zero by 2070 commitment, India aims to reduce carbon emissions per ton of cargo by 30 per cent by 2030 and 70 per cent by 2047, making the sector a key driver of climate action.

Minister Sonowal emphasised that flagship initiatives such as the Sagarmala Programme, Maritime India Vision 2030, Harit Sagar Guidelines, and the Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 place sustainability, innovation, and climate responsibility at the core of India’s maritime growth.

“As we look toward Amrit Kaal 2047, our goal is not only to expand maritime capacity but also to make it greener, smarter, and more resilient,” said Minister Sonowal.

“With our unique geography along key global trade routes, India is poised to become a hub for green shipping corridors, connecting domestic and international markets through clean energy trade,” he added.

India’s first national shore-power standard will enable vessels to draw clean electricity while docked, significantly reducing port-side emissions. Ports like Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA) are leading the shift with battery-powered trucks and electric logistics systems toward zero-emission operations, said the minister.

“The maritime transition cannot be achieved in silos – it demands partnership among governments, industry, financiers, and technology leaders,” Minister Sonowal said.

“Together, we can ensure that the seas that connect us also unite us in purpose – to create a future where maritime trade drives both prosperity and sustainability,” he noted.

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India-EU FTA: Brussels delegation in New Delhi next week to achieve ‘constructive conclusion’

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New Delhi, Oct 29: To advance the ongoing free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, the EU technical team, led by Director General for Trade Sabine Weyand, will visit India next week with the objective of achieving a “constructive conclusion based on the potential solutions identified over the past two days”, an official statement said on Wednesday.

Union Commerce and Industry Minister, Piyush Goyal, visited Brussels from October 26-28 and had productive and meaningful engagements with Maros Sefcovic, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security and his team on outstanding issues related to the ongoing India-EU FTA negotiations.

“Both sides reaffirmed their shared commitment to conclude the India-EU FTA by the end of 2025, following the clear direction from Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen during the College of Commissioners’ visit to New Delhi in February 2025,” according to the official statement.

The engagement focused on achieving a mutually beneficial, balanced and equitable trade agreement, reflecting the depth of political trust and the strategic ties between India and the European Union, and at the same time respecting each other’s sensitivities and priorities.

The statement further said that India recognises the importance of ensuring that the FTA remains balanced in addressing both tariff and non-tariff barriers and creating transparent and predictable regulatory frameworks that accelerate trade for both partners in the coming years.

There was intensive engagement to explore possible landing zones on the outstanding issues.

There was also a good discussion on India’s concerns on Non-Tariff Measures and the new EU regulations. During the negotiations, Goyal emphasised the need for preferential treatment for India’s key asks, particularly those with respect to labour-intensive sectors.

Both sides agreed to work closely to finalise the non-sensitive industrial tariff lines. They also agreed that issues related to Steel, Auto, CBAM, and other EU regulations still require further discussion, as these issues have higher sensitivities.

“India looks forward to working closely with the European Union to transform this vision into reality through shared innovation, balanced, equitable, and meaningful trade, and a collective commitment to peace and prosperity,” the statement noted.

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