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RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley

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The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.

The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.

Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.

Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.

The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.

However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.

Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.

Business

Stock market rises for 3rd consecutive day on US Fed rate cut, buying in IT sector

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Mumbai, Sep 18: The Indian equity indices extended the gaining momentum for the third consecutive session on Thursday amid buying in IT stocks after the US Fed announced a rate cut.

Sensex closed at 83,013.96, up 320.25 points or 0.39 per cent.

The 30-share index opened with a decent gap-up at 83,108.92 against the last session’s closing of 82,693.71 after the US Fed announced a rate cut. However, the index remained range-bound throughout the session amid a mixed approach across sectors except IT.

Nifty ended the session at 25,423.60, up 93.35 points or 0.37 per cent.

“Global equities traded in the green after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 4–4.25 per cent and signalled two more reductions this year to cushion rising job market risks. Mirroring the upbeat global sentiment, Indian markets opened with a positive gap-up and maintained a sideways trajectory through the first half of the session,” Ashika Institutional Equities said in a note.

Eternal, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, HCL Tech, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel, Axis Bank and Bajaj FinServ settled high amid the Sensex stocks. Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Trent, Ultratech Cement, and Asian Paints ended the session in negative territory.

The majority of sectoral indices remained in green amid value buying. Nifty Fin Services jumped 135 points or 0.51 per cent, Nifty Bank rose 234 points or 0.42 per cent, Nifty Auto moved up 34 points or 0.13 per cent, Nifty FMCG jumped up 201 points or 0.36 per cent, and Nifty IT surged 303 points or 0.83 per cent.

Broader indices continued their bullish run amid buying in midcap and small-cap stocks. Nifty Small Cap 100 jumped 53 points or 0.29 per cent, Nifty Midcap 100 increased 224 points or 0.38 per cent, and Nifty 100 ended the session 91 points or 0.35 per cent high.

“Rupee closed weaker by 0.26 at 88.09 despite the dollar index staying soft post-Fed policy, where a rate cut was announced but forward guidance remained mixed as the roadmap for further cuts was unclear and data-dependent on jobs,” said Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities.

The rupee failed to gain as FII sentiment remained cautious, while ongoing India-US trade talks will be the next key trigger. Support for the rupee lies near 87.75, while resistance is seen at 88.25, he added.

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Business

Fed Finally Cuts Interest Rates, But What’s Next For India’s Markets & Gold Prices?

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Mumbai: The US central bank (Federal Reserve) has cut interest rates for the first time in 2025. This step is expected to support the US economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the decision was not due to political pressure, even though President Donald Trump had been demanding a rate cut for a long time.

The Fed has also hinted that it may cut rates two more times this year. This is to help the weak US job market. In the recent two-day meeting, almost all Fed members supported the 25 basis points cut. Only one member, Stephen Miran, voted against it.

Stephen Miran works with the White House and was earlier Trump’s economic advisor. He wanted a bigger cut—50 basis points. Trump had promised rate cuts during his election campaign.

New interest rate: 4 percent to 4.25 percent

Repo operation rate: 4.25 percent

Interest on reserve balance: 4.15 percent

Reverse repo rate: 4 percent

Prime credit rate: 4.25 percent

This US rate cut could help Indian markets. Lower US interest rates may push foreign investors to invest in India for better returns. This could lead to growth in the Indian stock market.

Gold may also get a boost. When interest rates fall, investors often look for safer and better returns—like gold. So gold prices might rise further.

The US job market is still weak. Looking at this and other economic risks, more rate cuts may happen in the coming months.

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Business

PM Modi’s dream of developed India by 2047 becomes collective resolve of every citizen

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New Delhi, Sep 17: Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, the dream of a developed India by 2047 has today become the collective resolve of every citizen, Union Minister Pralhad Joshi said on Wednesday.

Wishing PM Modi on his 75th birthday, the minister said that in the past 11 years, “your tireless hard work and dedication have brought unprecedented transformation in the lives of crores of Indians”.

“You have ignited the lamp of patriotism in the heart of every citizen and awakened a resolve for active participation in nation-building. May God grant you excellent health and a long life, so that you continue to serve Mother India with the same dedication and energy in the coming years,” Joshi noted in a post on X.

Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia said that meeting PM Modi for the first time as a member of his cabinet was a truly unforgettable experience for him.

“His deep interest in every subject, open mindedness, and out of the box perspective gave me new energy and inspired me to fulfill my responsibilities with even greater dedication and enthusiasm,” he posted on X.

“That one experience endowed me with the ability to serve the people with complete devotion for a lifetime, and for that, I will always remain deeply grateful to him from the bottom of my heart,” Scindia emphasised.

He further stated that PM Modi is dedicated to the development of every individual and is devoted to the principles of Antyodaya.

Minister of State for Commerce and Industry, Jitin Prasada, said that under PM Modi’s leadership, the significant decision of GST reforms will not only simplify and ease the lives of citizens but also provide new energy to the industry and business world, while promoting local production and entrepreneurship.

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