Business
RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley
The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.
“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.
The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.
Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.
Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.
The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.
However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.
Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.
Business
Gold prices slide 1 pc on MCX as Fed Rate cut hopes fade

Mumbai, Nov 24: Gold prices fell sharply on Monday as weak chances of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment.
A stronger US dollar also added pressure on the precious metal.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold December futures dropped 1 per cent to Rs 1,22,950 per 10 grams.
Silver followed the trend, with December futures falling 0.61 per cent to Rs 1,53,209 per kg in early trade.
“In INR gold has support at Rs1,23,450-1,22,480 while resistance at Rs1,24,750-1,25,500,” analysts said.
“Silver has support at Rs1,53,050-1,52,350 while resistance at Rs1,55,140, 1,55,980,” they added.
Analysts said gold currently lacks any strong positive trigger to maintain its previous gains.
The latest US job market data reduced expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has been a key reason behind the correction in prices.
The strong economic data pushed the US dollar index to nearly a six-month high on Friday.
The index remained above the 100 level on Monday, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies and restricting demand.
Geopolitical concerns have also eased in recent days, further reducing gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Experts believe the combination of a stronger dollar, uncertainty over US tariff decisions, developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the upcoming Fed policy announcement may keep gold prices volatile in the near term.
Some market analysts expect further correction and advise investors to stay cautious before making fresh purchases.
Gold is attempting to reclaim momentum as prices hover near $4,100, driven by growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut, now priced at 71 per cent probability after dovish hints from officials like Miran and Williams.
“Bullion has been choppy over the past three sessions, reflecting traders’ indecision, but with rate-cut bets rising and geopolitical risks lingering, dips in gold are likely to attract renewed buying interest in the coming week with next resistance seen around 125000 and support near 122000,” experts added.
Business
New labour codes to boost formalisation, gender parity of India’s workforce: Industry leaders

New Delhi, Nov 22: India’s top industry bodies and staffing leaders on Saturday labelled the implementation of the Four Labour Codes a landmark step toward formalising the workforce, expanding social security, and aligning India’s labour framework with global standards.
The India Electronics & Semiconductor Association (IESA) said the reforms would significantly benefit the high-technology sectors by enhancing workforce stability, improving safety standards, and enabling labour flexibility with social protection.
“Mandatory appointment letters, universal minimum wages, and pan-India social security coverage (including ESIC expansion) ensure greater formalisation. This strengthens worker confidence — critical for skill-intensive manufacturing such as fabs, ATMP, component manufacturing and design centres,” said Ashok Chandak, President, IESA and SEMI India.
Provisions for fixed-term employment, faster dispute resolution, single licensing, and simplified compliance directly support the scaling of high-tech manufacturing clusters, the statement said.
Meanwhile, parity of benefits for Fixed-Term Employees (FTE) and expanded social security protections ensure a balanced, worker-centric ecosystem, he added.
Sachin Alug, CEO of NLB Services, a technology and digital talent provider, said the reforms were long overdue for India’s gig economy and will offer protection to a fast-growing but previously unorganised workforce.
The new laws are also expected to promote gender parity in the workforce by opening doors to wider opportunities across diverse sectors. Additionally, other groups such as”
He also pointed out that new laws will promote gender parity and contract workers, youth workers, and fixed-term employees will benefit from clearer working-hour norms, expanded social security, minimum wage protections, and health benefits.
“By simplifying compliance and unifying the regulatory framework, the codes can significantly expand formal employment, bringing millions of workers, especially in industries that rely on contract, temporary, and project-based roles, into the fold of structured, protected work,” said Balasubramanian A, Senior Vice President, TeamLease Services.
“National floor minimum wage creates a consistent benchmark across states and is an important step in India’s evolution from a minimum-wage economy to a living-wage economy,” he noted.
Suchita Dutta, Executive Director of Indian Staffing Federation (ISF), said the codes simplify compliance for employers, reduce regulatory burdens, and foster a more flexible hiring environment — crucial for the staffing industry, which has long advocated for such changes to unlock formal job creation.
The government, on November 21, implemented the Four Labour Codes — the Code on Wages (2019), Industrial Relations Code (2020), Code on Social Security (2020), and Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions (OSHWC) Code (2020) — repealing and rationalising 29 existing central labour laws.
Business
Nifty, Sensex continue rally for second week despite FII outflows

Mumbai, Nov 22: Indian equity benchmarks made marginal gains for the second week, supported by stronger second quarter (Q2) earnings, easing inflation and optimism around the India-US trade negotiations.
Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex edged higher 0.68 and 0.50 per cent during the week to close at 26,068 and 85,231, respectively.
Analysts said that a moderation in FII selling due to expectations of earnings upgrades in H2 FY26 also supported the rally. However, markets turned volatile on Friday amid weak global cues. The Nifty fell after failing to cross its previous all-time highs of 26,277, ending its two-day advance.
Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 ending the week down 0.76 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.
Though IT stocks faced selling pressure due to weakness in the US tech shares, it was the biggest weekly gainer. Nifty Auto and Services followed as the secoral gainers during the week. On Friday, metals and realty were the worst hit, both dropping over 2 per cent, followed by PSU banks, financial services and media.
A better-than-expected non-farm payroll dimmed hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December putting pressure on global equities. Resultantly gold also witnessed selling pressure while INR declined to a new low.
The oil prices declined due to the US’s renewed push for a Russia-Ukraine peace proposal.
“The market may witness some profit booking in the near term if the pressure on Indian rupee persists. In the week ahead, investors will also have a close vigil on trade developments and economic data like IIP and Q2 FY26 GDP data to get the market direction,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.
Analysts said that they expect markets to remain firm next week supported by buying on dips, improving demand outlook in Q3 and resilient flows.
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