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RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley

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The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.

The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.

Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.

Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.

The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.

However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.

Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.

National

BJP accuses Congress of opposing voter verification to shield fake votes in Bihar

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New Delhi, June 27: Following Congress’ objection to the Election Commission of India’s special revision of the state’s voter list ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections in Bihar, the BJP has launched a sharp counterattack, accusing the grand old party of attempting to protect fake voters.

BJP state president Dilip Jaiswal defended the ECI and called Congress’ objections baseless.

“The Election Commission is an independent body which works independently. It is its responsibility to ensure that elections are conducted with complete transparency. If any political party opposes this, it is wrong. Fake voting can be prevented by the revision of the voter list. Voters who have died will be identified. This process will also make it clear whether the voter is actually in Bihar or voting somewhere else. This is a very necessary step for transparency. I congratulate the Election Commission for this,” Jaiswal said.

Bihar Congress president Rajesh Kumar on Thursday criticised the ECI for initiating the voter list revision process in a limited time frame.

He alleged that the move is part of a conspiracy to suppress the electoral rights of marginalised communities.

Reacting strongly to these allegations, BJP leader and Minister Nitin Nabin questioned Congress’ intent behind opposing the exercise.

“I say that Congress should clarify what exactly they are objecting to. If genuine voters are being verified and fake voters are being removed, is Congress sitting here to commit fraud? I want to ask the opposition members who are opposing this, are you trying to gain power through fake votes? Such fake voters will definitely be stopped, and the parties doing fraud will also be taught a lesson,” Nabin asserted.

The ECI has issued instructions for holding Special Intensive Revision (SIR) in Bihar, where polls are to be held by year-end. This means electoral rolls for the state will be prepared afresh.

The special voter list inspection has been undertaken by the ECI as a standard pre-election procedure to ensure the accuracy of electoral rolls.

Officials have stated that the process will help remove deceased or duplicate voters and correct errors, ensuring a fair and transparent election.

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Crime

Kerala HC judge files complaint of theft at his residence, police probe on

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Kochi, 27 June: The Kochi police have received a theft complaint from Kerala High Court Judge, Justice A. Badharudeen, according to officials on Friday, stating that six sovereigns of gold were missing from his residence.

The complaint, which was filed on Thursday, mentions that the gold has been stolen from the judge’s bedroom. The police have registered an FIR under Section BNS 305.

What has surprised many is that the thief has decamped with gold from a high-security guarded house located in the heart of the commercial capital of the state.

The judge registered the complaint with the Kalamassery police under which his residence falls.

After the preliminary probe, the police are now planning to prepare a list of those who need to be spoken to, as this incident occurred in the bedroom of the senior judge.

More details are awaited.

The incident has raised concerns regarding the security situation in the state. The Congress-led UDF has been accusing the state government of failing to curb the crimes.

It has been found that Kerala is a haven for organised gangs hailing from neighbouring states who specialise in robbing homes, and the cases against non-Keralaite thieves are also on the increase.

According to information prepared by the home department, which was placed before the Assembly last year, it showed 192 cases of theft involving non-Keralites were registered in 2021, and the numbers have been steadily increasing. This rose to 360 in 2022.

In 2023, the number increased further to 519, and by September 2024, a total of 307 such cases were registered. But the image of the Kerala Police got a boost when over 1,350 thieves during this period were put behind bars.

However, with regards to the case being registered in the burglary at the home of a judge, the police appear to have a tough job ahead.

Likewise, with other crimes also on the increase, the Ernakulam Police have come out with a directive to landlords who are seeking to rent out their properties. The police have urged the landlords to get a police clearance certificate from the prospective tenants from their local police station where they stayed.

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National

Thackeray brothers will jointly hold one anti-Hindi protest: Sanjay Raut

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New Delhi, June 27: Amid plans to hold two protests against imposition of Hindi in schools in Maharashtra, senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut on Friday announced that there would be only one demonstration and the two Thackeray brothers would participate in it together.

Even though there has been no formal announcement on this till now by the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) or the Shiv Sena (UBT), but Sanjay Raut’s post on X, in which he has also put up a picture of the two cousins together with a photograph of the late Bal Thackeray in the background, has fuelled speculation of rapprochement between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray and the possibility that they might hold the protest jointly.

Earlier, close to Raj Thackeray’s birthday Uddhav Thackeray had also hinted at a rapprochement between them but nothing concrete had come out of it.

On Thursday MNS chief Raj Thackeray announced the change in morcha date to July 5 instead of July 6 to protest the imposition of Hindi in Marathi and English-medium schools for classes 1 to 5 in Maharashtra.

This was done as the auspicious Ashadhi Ekadashi falls on July 6 when the devotees fast for the day and walk all the way to Pandharpur to pay tribute to the presiding deity Vitthal.

Significantly, Uddhav Thackeray on Thursday extended his party’s support to a morcha organised on July 7 in Mumbai by The Tribhasha Sutra (Three language formula) committee.

Raut’s post is significant because even though both the brothers and their parties had declared that they would not allow the imposition of Hindi, they had announced two different protests.

Insiders from both the parties said that efforts are on to fight as one, in order to avoid a split in the Marathi speaking people opposing the imposition of Hindi.

Now, it remains to be seen whether Sanjay Raut’s post was his own initiative or whether it had the blessings of the leaders of both the parties and the two estranged brothers have finally decided to come together for a cause close to their heart and fight for it jointly.

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