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Moody’s Analytics sees another 60-80 bps hike in repo rate this year

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Hours after the Reserve Bank of India raised key lending rates, or repo rate, by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, global financial services company Moody’s Analytics said the central bank could hike the repo rate by another 60 to 80 basis points through the rest of the year.

It, however, maintained that these rate increases will need to be carefully calibrated to meet the central bank’s increasingly difficult objectives of supporting growth and taming inflation.

The lastest hike of 50 basis points was marginally above its expectations of a 40-basis point rate hike, Moody’s said in a report.

Wednesday’s repo rate hike followed a surprise off-cycle rate hike of 40 basis points in May that broke a pandemic-driven pause on interest rates and marked the first hike since August 2018.

“High costs from elevated and volatile global oil prices, higher input costs owing to industry-specific shortages, trade restrictions as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a domestic heat wave have driven up consumer prices,” the report said.

Quoting the central bank, the report said that although domestic demand had gained some traction and the economy remained resilient in the face of these headwinds, inflation pressures have become more broad-based and that upside risks to inflation have “materialised earlier than anticipated”.

It added that fiscal measures announced in May, including excise duty cuts on fuels, increased subsidies on certain imported raw materials and cooking gas, and export restrictions on sugar and wheat, are intended to aid in tackling inflation.

“However, it’s unlikely that these measures can do much to moderate inflation. And given that select food, grain, and vegetable supplies could see continued volatility before stabilising, a substantial cooling is not expected. Further, the impending pickup in goods and services spending will add to demand-driven pressures and aggravate price increases in coming months.”

The months ahead will likely see more fiscal and monetary policy coordination to mitigate the overall inflation hit to economic growth, the report added.

India’s retail inflation has been above RBI’s 6 per cent tolerance level for four months in a row, while wholesale inflation in the country has been in double digit for over a year now.

India’s retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level of 6 per cent till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent, said Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday in his remarks on the outcome of the monetary policy review meeting.

For FY23, RBI sees overall inflation at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.

Coming to growth, India’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, with 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 per cent in Q3, and 4.0 per cent in Q4, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.

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Demand for homes priced Rs 1 crore and above boosts market in India: Report

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Mumbai, April 24: The demand for homes prices Rs 1 crore and above bolstered the Indian property market in the first quarter this year, preventing overall sales of 65,250 units from hard landing, a report said on Thursday.

Residential sales in Q1 2025 (January-March) experienced only a modest decline and added up to 65,246 units. This limited drop was primarily due to robust demand in the Rs 3-5 crore and Rs 1.5-3.0 crore segments, which helped counterbalance the slowdown in relatively affordable housing, according to a JLL report.

The steady growth in higher ticket size homes indicates increasing affluence among homebuyers, changing lifestyle preferences and buyers prioritising larger and premium properties.

According to the report, housing sales in India’s top seven cities continued to be dominated by Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Pune, which collectively accounted for 66 per cent of Q1 sales.

High concentration of MNCs and startups creating significant employment opportunities and ongoing infrastructure improvements make these cities increasingly attractive places to live and work.

It is interesting to note that over the last few quarters a significant share of quarterly sales volume has been contributed by projects launched during the same quarter.

Q1 2025 was no exception, with around one-fourth of its sales being contributed by quarterly new launches. Launches by reputed developers with assurance of timely delivery and steady price appreciation, are driving the trend, the report informed.

“The residential real estate market is showing signs of a shift in buyer preferences with lowering of demand for less than Rs 1 crore housing and a growing affinity for mid to high-end properties. This as well suggests a potential upward movement in the overall market dynamics,” said Dr Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research and REIS, India, JLL.

“This upswing in the higher-priced segment demand has shielded the overall housing sales from a sharper decline,” Das added.

Developers are focusing more on mid to high-end projects to align with current demand patterns. High-end housing sector experienced a steady upswing with 107 per cent year-on-year growth in launches of properties priced at Rs 1 crore and above, driven by strong sales in this segment.

Growth in launches despite economic uncertainties signals robust developer confidence in high-end housing demand, said the report, adding that 2025 is poised for robust growth in the residential sector demand.

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GreenLine flags off LNG truck fleet for Bekaert to drive sustainable logistics

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Mumbai, April 24: GreenLine Mobility Solutions Ltd., an Essar venture and India’s only green logistics operator of LNG and electric-powered heavy commercial trucks, has partnered with Bekaert, a global leader in tire reinforcement technology, to decarbonise road logistics and support India’s vision of a gas-based economy.

The partnership was flagged off with the deployment of GreenLine’s LNG-powered trucks at Bekaert’s Ranjangaon Plant, marking the beginning of a pilot phase that aims to significantly reduce the carbon footprint of Bekaert’s logistics operations.

Each GreenLine LNG truck is expected to reduce up to 24 tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually, contributing to Bekaert’s ambition of becoming carbon net-zero by 2050 and achieving 65 per cent of sales from sustainable solutions.

Commenting on the partnership, Anand Mimani, CEO, GreenLine Mobility Solutions Ltd, said, “Our partnership with Bekaert demonstrates the growing commitment of forward-thinking corporates to drive sustainability at scale. At GreenLine, we are proud to offer not just green trucks, but an integrated ecosystem — from LNG refuelling to real-time telematics — that empowers our partners to make meaningful progress on their net-zero goals.”

Dinesh Mukhedkar, Procurement Operations Lead — South Asia and Procurement Global Shared Service Centre Lead, Bekaert, added, “As part of our purpose ‘Establishing the new possible,’ and our ambition to lead in safe, smart, and sustainable solutions, decarbonising logistics is an essential step. This directly supports our commitment to ESG principles and long-term sustainability goals.”

GreenLine’s expanding fleet of LNG-powered trucks has already clocked more than 40 million km, avoiding over 10,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions. The company’s ongoing expansion includes plans to deploy over 10,000 LNG and EV trucks, supported by a nationwide network of 100 LNG refuelling stations, EV charging hubs, and battery swapping facilities — targeting a reduction of 1 million tonnes of carbon emissions annually.

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US tariffs pose major headwinds, need to diversify supply chains: BOK chief

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Seoul, April 24: South Korea’s top central banker has said global trade tensions sparked by the United States’ sweeping tariff policy are a major headwind for the country’s export-driven economy, and the issue will likely accelerate its efforts to diversify supply chains.

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong made the assessment during an interview with CNBC in Washington, where he is attending meetings of the Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bank chiefs, as well as International Monetary Fund–World Bank Group (IMF-WBG) meetings, reports Yonhap news agency.

“We are an export-oriented economy. So the trade tension, definitely, too is large headwinds. We will be affected directly by the U.S. tariffs, and also indirectly to its tariff to other countries. For example, our semiconductor production in Vietnam, car and electronics production in Mexico and our battery production in Canada will be affected,” Rhee said.

“I really hope this trade tension will dissipate, because it’s bad for everybody,” he added.

But South Korea has “some strengths” to manage the issue, as the country has been “luckily” diversifying its supply chains, particularly from China, over the last several years amid growing competition from China and some political issues between the two nations.

“This is a kind of natural movement to diversify our supply chain and also move up to the value chain. So that will continue, but at the same time, the recent trade tension will probably expedite the move,” Rhee said.

Speaking of economic growth, Rhee said it is hard to present a growth outlook due to high uncertainties surrounding the U.S. tariff policy.

“At this moment, I don’t know what kind of trade tension scenarios we have to assume as a baseline or reference scenarios,” Rhee said. “I may have a better idea after tariff talks with the U.S. tomorrow.

South Korea and the U.S. are set to hold tariff talks in Washington on Thursday (U.S. time), as the Donald Trump administration has put on hold the implementation of 25 percent reciprocal tariffs on South Korean imports for 90 days.

South Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.2 percent in the January-March period from the previous quarter, according to the BOK’s preliminary data released in the day.

The BOK earlier expected the South Korean economy to expand 1.5 percent this year, but Rhee later said the outlook seemed “too optimistic” and the central bank will come up with its adjusted figure in May.

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