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Moody’s Analytics sees another 60-80 bps hike in repo rate this year

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Hours after the Reserve Bank of India raised key lending rates, or repo rate, by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, global financial services company Moody’s Analytics said the central bank could hike the repo rate by another 60 to 80 basis points through the rest of the year.

It, however, maintained that these rate increases will need to be carefully calibrated to meet the central bank’s increasingly difficult objectives of supporting growth and taming inflation.

The lastest hike of 50 basis points was marginally above its expectations of a 40-basis point rate hike, Moody’s said in a report.

Wednesday’s repo rate hike followed a surprise off-cycle rate hike of 40 basis points in May that broke a pandemic-driven pause on interest rates and marked the first hike since August 2018.

“High costs from elevated and volatile global oil prices, higher input costs owing to industry-specific shortages, trade restrictions as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a domestic heat wave have driven up consumer prices,” the report said.

Quoting the central bank, the report said that although domestic demand had gained some traction and the economy remained resilient in the face of these headwinds, inflation pressures have become more broad-based and that upside risks to inflation have “materialised earlier than anticipated”.

It added that fiscal measures announced in May, including excise duty cuts on fuels, increased subsidies on certain imported raw materials and cooking gas, and export restrictions on sugar and wheat, are intended to aid in tackling inflation.

“However, it’s unlikely that these measures can do much to moderate inflation. And given that select food, grain, and vegetable supplies could see continued volatility before stabilising, a substantial cooling is not expected. Further, the impending pickup in goods and services spending will add to demand-driven pressures and aggravate price increases in coming months.”

The months ahead will likely see more fiscal and monetary policy coordination to mitigate the overall inflation hit to economic growth, the report added.

India’s retail inflation has been above RBI’s 6 per cent tolerance level for four months in a row, while wholesale inflation in the country has been in double digit for over a year now.

India’s retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level of 6 per cent till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent, said Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday in his remarks on the outcome of the monetary policy review meeting.

For FY23, RBI sees overall inflation at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.

Coming to growth, India’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, with 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 per cent in Q3, and 4.0 per cent in Q4, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.

Business

CBI books Reliance Commercial Finance, its promoters in Rs 57.47 crore bank fraud case

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Mumbai, Dec 9: The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) on Tuesday said it has filed a criminal case against Reliance Commercial Finance Ltd (RCFL) and its promoters and directors over allegedly causing wrongful loss of Rs 57.47 crore to Bank of Maharashtra.

The case has been registered against RCFL — a company of Reliance ADA Group, its promoters/directors and unknown bank officials, on the allegations of criminal conspiracy, cheating and criminal misconduct and thereby, the CBI said in a statement.

According to the statement, the loan account of Reliance Commercial Finance Ltd was declared an NPA by the bank on March 25, 2020 and also as fraud on October 4, 2025, for causing wrongful loss of Rs 57.47 crore to Bank of Maharashtra.

“RCFL was availing loans to the tune of Rs 9,280 crore from 31 banks/ FIs/NBFCs/Corporate Bodies, etc., including Bank of Maharashtra. A thorough investigation will be conducted into the allegations of defrauding all the banks/FIs, etc. by the accused company,” said the CBI.

The probe agency obtained search warrants from the court of a Special CBI judge, Mumbai and commenced searches at the official premises of RCFL at Mumbai and the residential premises of Devang Pravin Mody, Director of the company, at Pune, on December 9.

“Several incriminating documents have been observed and are being taken into possession during searches. Searches are in progress,” the CBI said.

Meanwhile, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) has filed a supplementary charge sheet against Reliance Power Ltd and 10 others, in the case of fake bank guarantees of Rs 68 crore submitted by Reliance Power Limited to the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) for the purpose of securing a tender issued by it. ED attached the proceeds of crime worth Rs 5.15 crore as well.

Reliance Power Ltd said in a statement that “ED allegations have not yet passed through judicial scrutiny and the Company has not been held guilty of any wrongdoing”.

“As per law settled by the Supreme Court, the company will get an opportunity to put across its case and facts before the court, even before cognisance, so filing of this complaint does not affect the affairs of the company in any manner,” said the company in an exchange filing.

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Business

IndiGo Crisis Day 8: Mumbai Hit Hard As Flight Chaos Enters Day 8; Over 30 Cancellations Snarl City’s Air Travel

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Mumbai: air travel operations remained disrupted on Tuesday as IndiGo’s nationwide aviation crisis stretched into its eighth consecutive day, causing large-scale cancellations and commuter chaos across the country. But Mumbai, one of IndiGo’s busiest and most critical hubs, continued to bear a brunt of the meltdown, with passengers facing uncertain schedules and repeated last-minute cancellations.

By 9:30 am, Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport had already logged 31 IndiGo cancellations, including 14 inbound flights and 17 outbound departures. Long queues, anxious passengers and repeated rescheduling announcements dominated Terminal 2 through the morning peak hours, leaving thousands scrambling to adjust their plans.

Across India, more than 200 IndiGo flights were cancelled today. Bengaluru topped the list with 121 cancellations, followed by Hyderabad (58), Chennai (41) and Kerala with four. But for Mumbai passengers, many of whom rely on IndiGo for frequent business and leisure travel, the interruptions continued to be especially disruptive.

The turmoil, which began last Tuesday, has snowballed into a full-blown operational crisis. Over 4,500 flights have been cancelled between last week and Monday. Even though IndiGo claimed on Sunday that operations were ‘stabilising,’ the airline saw over 500 fresh cancellations on Monday alone, leaving passengers stranded overnight at multiple airports, including Mumbai.

The root of IndiGo’s meltdown has been linked to the airline’s inability to implement the second phase of India’s updated Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL), which came into effect in November. The revised norms, aimed at cutting pilot fatigue and extending rest periods, required IndiGo to restructure crew rosters. However, the airline has reportedly been struggling with a pilot shortage, leading to a mismatch between the new regulations and its available manpower.

To reduce pressure on airlines and mitigate the ongoing disruption, aviation regulator DGCA temporarily relaxed certain night-duty and weekly rest requirements for pilots. This relaxation is expected to help airlines stabilise operations through emergency rostering flexibility.

Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu told Parliament that IndiGo did not raise any concerns during a crucial meeting on December 1, just a day before the cancellations spiralled. He attributed the chaos to the airline’s internal system rather than regulatory pressure.

The government has now decided to sharply cut IndiGo’s winter schedule. The airline, which operates 2,200 flights a day and commands nearly 60 per cent of the domestic market, will see its schedule curtailed, with several routes handed to other carriers to prevent further passenger inconvenience.

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LT Foods drops over 6.5 pc, other Indian rice stocks also slide

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Mumbai, Dec 9: Shares of leading Indian rice companies fell sharply on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump hinted that he may impose fresh tariffs on agricultural imports, specifically targeting Indian rice and Canadian fertilisers.

The statement triggered immediate selling in stocks linked to the rice trade. LT Foods was the biggest loser, with its share price slipping 6.85 per cent to Rs 366.55.

Shares of KRBL also declined, falling 1.14 per cent, while GRM Overseas dropped 4.46 per cent.

The sudden slide reflected investor concerns that any new US tariffs could hurt export demand and impact earnings for these companies.

Trump made his remarks during a White House event where he announced new support measures for US farmers.

His comments come at a time when trade tensions between the United States and India continue to resurface.

India remains the world’s largest rice producer, with an output of 150 million tonnes and a 28 per cent share in global production.

It is also the top exporter, accounting for 30.3 per cent of global rice exports in 2024–2025, data from the Indian Rice Exporters Federation showed.

Despite this large global presence, India’s rice exports to the US are relatively small.

According to the India Brand Equity Foundation, India shipped around 234,000 tonnes of rice to the US in the 2024 financial year, which is less than 5 per cent of its total global basmati exports of 5.24 million tonnes.

West Asian countries remain the biggest buyers of Indian rice. Among the varieties exported worldwide, the Sona Masoori variety is especially popular in markets like the US and Australia.

The US, under Trump’s leadership, has already imposed steep tariffs on India, including a 50 per cent tariff — its highest — along with a 25 per cent levy on India’s Russian oil imports.

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