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Moody’s Analytics sees another 60-80 bps hike in repo rate this year

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Hours after the Reserve Bank of India raised key lending rates, or repo rate, by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, global financial services company Moody’s Analytics said the central bank could hike the repo rate by another 60 to 80 basis points through the rest of the year.

It, however, maintained that these rate increases will need to be carefully calibrated to meet the central bank’s increasingly difficult objectives of supporting growth and taming inflation.

The lastest hike of 50 basis points was marginally above its expectations of a 40-basis point rate hike, Moody’s said in a report.

Wednesday’s repo rate hike followed a surprise off-cycle rate hike of 40 basis points in May that broke a pandemic-driven pause on interest rates and marked the first hike since August 2018.

“High costs from elevated and volatile global oil prices, higher input costs owing to industry-specific shortages, trade restrictions as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a domestic heat wave have driven up consumer prices,” the report said.

Quoting the central bank, the report said that although domestic demand had gained some traction and the economy remained resilient in the face of these headwinds, inflation pressures have become more broad-based and that upside risks to inflation have “materialised earlier than anticipated”.

It added that fiscal measures announced in May, including excise duty cuts on fuels, increased subsidies on certain imported raw materials and cooking gas, and export restrictions on sugar and wheat, are intended to aid in tackling inflation.

“However, it’s unlikely that these measures can do much to moderate inflation. And given that select food, grain, and vegetable supplies could see continued volatility before stabilising, a substantial cooling is not expected. Further, the impending pickup in goods and services spending will add to demand-driven pressures and aggravate price increases in coming months.”

The months ahead will likely see more fiscal and monetary policy coordination to mitigate the overall inflation hit to economic growth, the report added.

India’s retail inflation has been above RBI’s 6 per cent tolerance level for four months in a row, while wholesale inflation in the country has been in double digit for over a year now.

India’s retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level of 6 per cent till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent, said Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday in his remarks on the outcome of the monetary policy review meeting.

For FY23, RBI sees overall inflation at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.

Coming to growth, India’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, with 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 per cent in Q3, and 4.0 per cent in Q4, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.

Business

‘Its Prime Real Estate’: Anand Mahindra Expresses Awe At Grandiose Of Brabus Big Boy 1200

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In the City of Dreams that is Mumbai, one of the biggest ‘dreams’ of most who live in the metropolis is to find an abode, that they can call it their own. Real estate in Mumbai is known for its sky-high pricing, with figures of Rs 10-15 crore not surprising anyone.

The Motorhome

Space is a major issue in city, given the paucity of it, in a region that encompasses millions. However, what happens when the space is not only available but also mobile? That is precisely what a ‘motorhome’.

It may not been the most commonly seen or discussed avenue in this part of the world, but in other parts of the world, particularly in the US, an RV or recreational vehicle is the way of life, either by choice or by circumstance.

Mahindra Group chairman, Anand Mahindra recently reacted to one such motorhome. In a post on X, he shared a minute-long clipping of the Brabus Big Boy 1200. This is an uber-luxe, profligate motorhome manufactured by the German automobile company Brabus.

Mahindra, while reacting to the video of a person showing around the bus said, That’s not transport. It’s prime real estate.”

And one may arguably agree with Mahindra on this. The vehicle is extravagant and has a length of 12 meters or 39.4 ft and over 30 square meters or 320 sq ft. For context, the average size of homes in city of Mumbai hovers around 400-700 sq ft.

What Are The Features Of This Motorhome?

In addition, the vehicle also has two electrically extendable slide-outs on each side. These slide-outs can extend the bedroom and saloon to a width of 4.50 meters.

In addition, the motorhome also consists of a double bed measuring 160 x 200 centimeters.

A closet is integrated into the rear wall of the vehicle.

For amusement, the vehicle also has a desk and a 43-inch 4K television. Here one could watch TV programs that have been made available on the system play games on the integrated Playstation 5 system.

In addition, one can also connect to the internet through the Starlink system.

When it comes to the vehicle, it runs on a12.8-liter six-cylinder turbodiesel engine. This engine can deliver 390 kW / 530 hp and can generate a maximum torque of 2,600 Nm.

The vehicle is priced at around USD 1.5 million or a whopping Rs 12 crore.

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Maha will play key role in achieving India’s $5 trillion economy goal: Minister Tatkare

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Nagpur, Dec 21: Representing Maharashtra in the pre-Union Budget meeting held in Jaisalmer, Minister Aditi Tatkare on Saturday assured that Maharashtra would play a pivotal role in India’s journey towards becoming a $5 trillion economy.

She emphasised the need for special financial assistance to the state in the upcoming Union Budget.

Minister Tatkare presented Maharashtra’s vision, highlighting its strategic role in realising the Prime Minister’s goal of a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047.

Minister Tatkare outlined several critical issues and proposals for inclusion in the Union Budget. She urged the finance minister for central assistance for state Capital Investment by enhancing the allocation under the Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment.

She emphasised the need for streamlining fund disbursement timelines to provide qualifying states with a minimum one-year utilisation window.

In the wake of rapid urbanisation, Minister Tatkare called for central support to tackle the challenges faced by the state.

“Maharashtra, with urbanisation expected to surpass 50 per cent in the upcoming census, faces challenges in resource mobilisation for urban local bodies (ULBs). The state government urges support for ULBs to access long-term loans for planned urban development and infrastructure enhancement,” she said.

Under the MukhyaMantri Saur Krushi Vahini Yojana 2.0, aimed at solarising agricultural feeders, Minister Tatkare sought increased targets and funding allocations for Maharashtra.

She requested expansion of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) capacity from 500 MWh to 9,000 MWh to meet the state’s energy storage goals.

In order to further boost the modernisation of the home department, Minister Tatkare sought funds on a 60:40 basis, for projects such as digital forensic labs, mobile forensic vans, AMBIS systems, and the Cyber Security Project (Rs 837.86 crore).

She highlighted the need for funding major initiatives like Dial 112 emergency services integration and Maharashtra Police Station CCTV projects.

She urged financial support for faster case disposal through enhanced infrastructure for the judiciary.

She requested funding for constructing the Bombay High Court Complex in Bandra (East), estimated at Rs 3,750 crore.

Further, to push the implementation of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) economic master plan, Minister Tatkare proposed a special package.

The master plan is aligning with NITI Aayog’s vision to transform MMR into a national growth hub by 2030.

According to NITI Aayog, the MMR has a potential to increase its GDP to $300 billion by 2030 from the present level of $140 billion.

The Centre’s public policy think tank has asked the Maharashtra government to concentrate on seven growth drivers and attract investment of $125-135 billion from the private sector to achieve the target.

In a bid to push the state government’s ambitious plan to make Maharashtra drought-free, the state government has sought central government support to include state-funded river-linking projects like Wainganga-Nalganga and Damanganga-Godavari under the National Interlinking of Rivers Scheme.

Further, the state government appealed to the Centre to ease revenue expenditure pressures to create fiscal space for capital projects and establish a ‘Kisan Vishesh Sahayata Nidhi’ to compensate farmers affected by trade policy interventions.

The state government also appealed for the enhancement of funding for ongoing schemes like the Jal Jeevan Mission and financial assistance for disaster-affected areas.

Minister Tatkare said the comprehensive representation highlighted Maharashtra’s ambitions and challenges, ensuring the state’s priorities were well-articulated for the Union Budget deliberations.

She reiterated Maharashtra’s commitment to becoming a cornerstone of India’s economic growth and development trajectory.

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Business

Domestic stock markets to end 2024 on positive note, Nifty clocks 13 pc gain

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New Delhi, Dec 21: Riding on resilient economic growth, the domestic stock markets are ending 2024 on a positive note, with Nifty registering a 13 per cent gain (year-to-date) — its ninth consecutive year of positive gains, a Motilal Oswal Wealth Management report said on Saturday.

The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277 in September.

In fact, the markets navigated significant events, such several global geo-political issues, General Elections and Budget in India, and any dips were swiftly met with strong buying activity, the report mentioned.

“The year 2025 could unfold as a tale of two halves. The first half may continue to see market consolidation, while a recovery could take place in the second half,” it added.

In the last two months, the market has corrected 11 per cent from its all-time high, amid selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) due to a combination of domestic and global factors.

Going forward, the Indian markets are likely to face significant influences from a combination of global and domestic economic events.

The anticipated rate cut by the RBI in February, the ongoing trend of US rate cuts, and the expectations surrounding trade policy changes post Donald Trump taking over as US President in January will contribute to market volatility.

“Additionally, the Union Budget in February will offer important signals to the market. With a fragile global economic environment and mixed macroeconomic factors at home, the market is expected to remain in consolidation mode in the near term,” the report noted.

Earnings are expected to recover in H2 FY25, driven by increased rural spending, a buoyant wedding season, and pickup in government spending.

“We further expect earnings to gain momentum, delivering a 16 per cent CAGR over FY25-27E. We remain optimistic about the long-term trend, given the strength of corporate India’s balance sheets and the prospects for robust, profitable growth,” the report said.

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