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Moody’s Analytics sees another 60-80 bps hike in repo rate this year

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Hours after the Reserve Bank of India raised key lending rates, or repo rate, by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, global financial services company Moody’s Analytics said the central bank could hike the repo rate by another 60 to 80 basis points through the rest of the year.

It, however, maintained that these rate increases will need to be carefully calibrated to meet the central bank’s increasingly difficult objectives of supporting growth and taming inflation.

The lastest hike of 50 basis points was marginally above its expectations of a 40-basis point rate hike, Moody’s said in a report.

Wednesday’s repo rate hike followed a surprise off-cycle rate hike of 40 basis points in May that broke a pandemic-driven pause on interest rates and marked the first hike since August 2018.

“High costs from elevated and volatile global oil prices, higher input costs owing to industry-specific shortages, trade restrictions as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a domestic heat wave have driven up consumer prices,” the report said.

Quoting the central bank, the report said that although domestic demand had gained some traction and the economy remained resilient in the face of these headwinds, inflation pressures have become more broad-based and that upside risks to inflation have “materialised earlier than anticipated”.

It added that fiscal measures announced in May, including excise duty cuts on fuels, increased subsidies on certain imported raw materials and cooking gas, and export restrictions on sugar and wheat, are intended to aid in tackling inflation.

“However, it’s unlikely that these measures can do much to moderate inflation. And given that select food, grain, and vegetable supplies could see continued volatility before stabilising, a substantial cooling is not expected. Further, the impending pickup in goods and services spending will add to demand-driven pressures and aggravate price increases in coming months.”

The months ahead will likely see more fiscal and monetary policy coordination to mitigate the overall inflation hit to economic growth, the report added.

India’s retail inflation has been above RBI’s 6 per cent tolerance level for four months in a row, while wholesale inflation in the country has been in double digit for over a year now.

India’s retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level of 6 per cent till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent, said Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday in his remarks on the outcome of the monetary policy review meeting.

For FY23, RBI sees overall inflation at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.

Coming to growth, India’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, with 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 per cent in Q3, and 4.0 per cent in Q4, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.

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Stock market ends lower as investors take cautious approach on US tariffs

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Mumbai, April 3: The Indian stock market closed lower on Thursday as investors remained cautious following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs.

The new tariff structure includes a 10 per cent tax on all US imports, with higher tariffs on countries with a trade surplus. India will now face a 27 per cent tariff.

The Sensex fell 322.08 points, or 0.42 per cent, to close at 76,295.36. During the day, the index fluctuated between an intraday high of 76,493.74 and a low of 75,807.55.

The Nifty also ended lower, down 82.25 points, or 0.35 per cent, at 23,250.10.

“The primary catalyst for today’s decline was deteriorating global sentiment, exacerbated by US President Trump’s announcement of a 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian imports, which prompted a cautious stance among investors,” said Sundar Kewat of Ashika Institutional Equity.

Tech stocks led the losses, with TCS, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, and Tata Motors declining by up to 4.02 per cent.

On the other hand, Power Grid Corporation, Sun Pharma, Ultratech Cement, NTPC, and Asian Paints were among the top gainers, rising as much as 4.57 per cent.

The IT sector was the worst performer, with the Nifty IT index dropping 4.21 per cent, dragged down by Persistent Systems, Coforge, TCS, and Mphasis. Auto, oil & gas, and realty stocks also struggled.

However, pharma stocks performed well, with the Nifty Pharma index climbing 2.25 per cent. Banking, healthcare, FMCG, and consumer durables stocks also saw gains, rising up to 1.94 per cent.

Despite the overall market decline, smallcap stocks outperformed, as the Nifty Smallcap100 index gained 0.58 per cent.

Market analysts stated that investors are expected to remain watchful of global developments and their impact on market trends.

“The domestic market initially showed signs of recovery but ended with modest losses after the announcement of a relatively lower 26 per cent tariff on US imports,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Limited.

“Although the tariff presents short-term challenges, India’s economic resilience and bilateral trade agreement may help mitigate the overall impact,” he stated.

The rupee ended flat but traded in a volatile range between 85.75 and 85.35, as markets reacted to Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy.

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India’s GDP growth projected at 6.7 pc for FY26, cyclical recovery expected

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New Delhi, April 3: India’s economy is set to grow at 6.7 per cent in FY26, driven by a cyclical recovery and steady market performance, a new report said on Thursday.

Cyclical recovery refers to the phase in an economic cycle that follows a recession or slowdown, during which economic activity, consumer spending, and business investments start to rise.

Over the past five years, India has witnessed strong earnings growth, with the NIFTY index recording a 20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to a Lighthouse Canton report.

As the economy moves forward, the next phase of growth will depend on key factors such as government capital expenditure, tax benefits for the middle class, and improved consumer demand.

These elements are expected to support earnings recovery and market confidence in 2025, the report said.

India’s investment-led expansion has played a crucial role in economic growth. While the government continues to focus on fiscal discipline, private sector investments are expected to gain momentum, contributing to long-term stability.

The Reserve Bank of India’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut — the first in nearly five years — signals a supportive stance for economic growth.

“India’s economic engine continues to offer long-term promise, however, 2025 will require greater selectivity and discipline,” said Sumegh Bhatia, Managing Director and CEO of Lighthouse Canton in India.

He added that the investors will need to navigate shifting cycles, watch for inflection points in earnings, and remain anchored in fundamentals as the global order undergoes further transformation.

On the global front, market trends and currency movements will influence India’s financial landscape, as per the report.

The strength of the US dollar and rising global trade activity are shaping investment flows, while gold remains a preferred asset due to its resilience amid global uncertainties.

“Additionally, crude oil prices are expected to remain stable, benefiting India’s import-dependent economy,” the report noted.

In 2025, the focus remains on sustainable growth, disciplined market strategies, and long-term investment opportunities, it added.

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Institutional investments in Indian real estate up 31 pc at $1.3 billion in Q1

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New Delhi, April 3: Institutional investments in India’s real estate sector saw a strong start to 2025, with total inflows reaching $1.3 billion in the first quarter, a new report said on Thursday.

This marks a 31 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, driven largely by domestic investors, according to the report by Colliers India.

Domestic investments played a significant role in this growth, contributing $0.8 billion, which is a 75 per cent rise on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

These investments were mainly directed toward industrial, warehousing and office spaces. The office segment alone attracted $0.4 billion, making up one-third of the total investments.

Hyderabad emerged as a key market in this segment, drawing more than half of the office-related inflows. The residential sector also witnessed a remarkable rise, with investments almost tripling compared to the first quarter of 2024.

The segment attracted $0.3 billion, accounting for 23 per cent of total investments, a figure comparable to the industrial and warehousing sector.

Interestingly, foreign investors led the residential investment surge, contributing over half of the total inflows in this segment.

The industrial and warehousing sector continued its strong performance from 2024, recording over $0.3 billion in investments during the first quarter of 2025.

This represents a 73 per cent increase YoY, supported by rising investor confidence.

Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as India’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reaching 58.1 in March 2025 — the highest level since mid-2024 — have reinforced optimism in this sector.

The robust demand, higher production, and improved business confidence have all contributed to this growth, the report said.

Mumbai emerged as the top investment destination, accounting for $0.3 billion, or 22 per cent of the total inflows in Q1 2025.

Bengaluru followed with a 20 per cent share, while Hyderabad secured 18 per cent of the investments, according to the report.

In Mumbai, mixed-use assets attracted over half of the total inflows, whereas Bengaluru saw a majority of investments in the residential sector.

City-wise data show a massive 841 per cent rise in investments in Mumbai, compared to Q1 2024, while Delhi-NCR also experienced significant growth with a 145 per cent increase.

The report also found that Bengaluru saw a steady 26 per cent rise in investments during the same period.

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