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Moody’s Analytics sees another 60-80 bps hike in repo rate this year

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Hours after the Reserve Bank of India raised key lending rates, or repo rate, by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, global financial services company Moody’s Analytics said the central bank could hike the repo rate by another 60 to 80 basis points through the rest of the year.

It, however, maintained that these rate increases will need to be carefully calibrated to meet the central bank’s increasingly difficult objectives of supporting growth and taming inflation.

The lastest hike of 50 basis points was marginally above its expectations of a 40-basis point rate hike, Moody’s said in a report.

Wednesday’s repo rate hike followed a surprise off-cycle rate hike of 40 basis points in May that broke a pandemic-driven pause on interest rates and marked the first hike since August 2018.

“High costs from elevated and volatile global oil prices, higher input costs owing to industry-specific shortages, trade restrictions as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a domestic heat wave have driven up consumer prices,” the report said.

Quoting the central bank, the report said that although domestic demand had gained some traction and the economy remained resilient in the face of these headwinds, inflation pressures have become more broad-based and that upside risks to inflation have “materialised earlier than anticipated”.

It added that fiscal measures announced in May, including excise duty cuts on fuels, increased subsidies on certain imported raw materials and cooking gas, and export restrictions on sugar and wheat, are intended to aid in tackling inflation.

“However, it’s unlikely that these measures can do much to moderate inflation. And given that select food, grain, and vegetable supplies could see continued volatility before stabilising, a substantial cooling is not expected. Further, the impending pickup in goods and services spending will add to demand-driven pressures and aggravate price increases in coming months.”

The months ahead will likely see more fiscal and monetary policy coordination to mitigate the overall inflation hit to economic growth, the report added.

India’s retail inflation has been above RBI’s 6 per cent tolerance level for four months in a row, while wholesale inflation in the country has been in double digit for over a year now.

India’s retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level of 6 per cent till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent, said Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday in his remarks on the outcome of the monetary policy review meeting.

For FY23, RBI sees overall inflation at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.

Coming to growth, India’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, with 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 per cent in Q3, and 4.0 per cent in Q4, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.

National

J&K CM Omar Abdullah makes passionate appeal for statehood restoration

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Jammu, June 6: During his welcome address to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K) Katra town on Friday, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah made a passionate appeal for restoration of statehood.

During his welcome speech for the Prime Minister, CM Omar Abdullah said, “Jenab-e-Wallah (exalted sir), when you inaugurated the Katra railway station towards the end of my first term as the Chief Minister, Manoj Sinha ji was the Union Minister of State for Railways.

“He has been promoted as the Lieutenant-Governor while I have been demoted from the Chief Minister of a state to that of a Union Territory. I am confident that your goodself will soon address the issue and announce statehood to J&K”.

He also praised the Prime Minister for making the dream of a rail link to the Valley a reality.

“I was in class 8 and since then I have been hearing about a rail link to the Valley. The dream has been realised in your time sir.

“The start of the train service to the Valley will save us from the loot of the airlines companies who hike airfare to Jammu from Rs 5,000 to Rs 25,000 whenever the Srinagar-Jammu highway gets blocked.

“I must also pay my gratitude to Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who declared the rail link to the Valley a national priority project and made financial allocations for it,” CM Omar said.

On the stage with PM Modi, CM Omar’s body language was very cordial as the PM engaged him in some close to ear talk.

He was also in the forefront of all the official functions on Friday, including the inauguration of the Chenab Railway Bridge, the Anji cable stayed railway bridge, the flag-off ceremony of two Vande Bharat trains, one from Katra to Srinagar and the other from Srinagar to Katra.

CM Omar was among the dignitaries who welcomed the PM on the stage before the latter’s address to the public in Katra stadium.

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Business

RBI reduces inflation forecast to 3.7 pc for 2025-26

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Mumbai, June 6: The RBI has revised its inflation outlook for 2025-26 downwards from the earlier forecast of 4 per cent to 3.7 per cent, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday.

Taking all these factors into consideration, and assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is now projected at 3.7 per cent, with Q1 at 2.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.4 per cent, Q3 at 3.9 per cent, and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.

He pointed out that Inflation has softened significantly over the last six months from above the tolerance band in October 2024 to well below the target, with signs of a broad-based moderation. The near-term and medium-term outlook now gives us the confidence of not only a durable alignment of headline inflation with the target of 4 per cent, as exuded in the last meeting, but also the belief that during the year, it is likely to undershoot the target at the margin.

While food inflation outlook remains soft, core inflation is expected to remain benign with easing of international commodity prices in line with the anticipated global growth slowdown, Malhotra explained.

He pointed out that CPI headline inflation continued its declining trajectory in March-April, with headline CPI inflation moderating to a nearly six-year low of 3.2 per cent (y-o-y) in April 2025. This was led mainly by food inflation, which recorded the sixth consecutive monthly decline.

Fuel group witnessed a reversal of deflationary conditions and recorded positive inflation prints during March and April, partly reflecting the hike in LPG prices. Core inflation remained largely steady and contained during March-April, despite the increase in gold prices exerting upward pressure, Malhotra said.

The outlook for inflation points towards benign prices across major constituents. The record wheat production and higher production of key pulses in the Rabi crop season should ensure an adequate supply of key food items. Going forward, the likely above normal monsoon along with its early onset augurs well for Kharif crop prospects.

Reflecting this, inflation expectations are showing a moderating trend, more so for the rural households. Most projections point towards continued moderation in the prices of key commodities, including crude oil, the RBI Governor said.

However, at the same time, Malhotra had a word of caution. “Notwithstanding these favourable prognoses, we need to remain watchful of weather-related uncertainties and still evolving tariff-related concerns with their attendant impact on global commodity prices,” he added.

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International

Man shot in targeted attack in Australian state of Queensland

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Sydney, June 6: A man has been hospitalised with serious injuries following a targeted shooting in the Australian state of Queensland.

The Queensland Police Service said on Friday that emergency services were deployed to a house in Parkwood, 65 kilometres southeast of Brisbane, around 7:50 p.m. on Thursday in response to reports that a man had sustained gunshot wounds to his leg and other injuries to his hand.

According to media, the 21-year-old man was found at the scene with serious injuries and was taken to hospital in a stable condition.

A police statement said that initial inquiries indicated that the incident was a targeted shooting and that there was no ongoing threat to the public.

An investigation into the attack was ongoing and police commenced a search for the perpetrator.

In a separate incident, Australian police are investigating a fatal stabbing in a remote outback mining town west of Sydney.

Emergency services were called to conduct a welfare check at a home in Broken Hill, over 900 kilometers from Sydney in the far west outback of the state of New South Wales (NSW), just after 11:50 p.m. on Thursday.

Police officers arrived at the scene where they found a man, believed to be aged in his 40s, with stab wounds to his neck.

He was treated by ambulance paramedics but could not be revived and was declared deceased.

Local police established a crime scene at the house and have commenced an investigation into the man’s death with assistance from the NSW Homicide Squad.

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