Mumbai, Sep 14: The Nifty could climb to 26,200 by December 2026, implying an upside of around 12 per cent from current levels, as Bank of America (BofA) Securities has turned constructive on Indian equities after maintaining a cautious stance for nearly two years.

In its latest strategy report, BofA said it had remained cautious on Indian stocks since August 2024 and had identified eight key risks that could keep the market volatile. However, five of those risks have either already played out or have been largely priced into the market, prompting the brokerage to adopt a more positive stance.

BofA said the three remaining risks could create around 7 per cent downside for the Nifty 50 in its bear-case scenario. In its base case, however, the brokerage sees the index reaching 26,200 by December 2026.

According to BofA, the remaining risks are expected to peak by October 2026, potentially creating room for a sustained market recovery from November.

One of the key risks identified earlier was a sharp rise in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, compared with BofA’s fourth-quarter 2026 estimate of $81 a barrel. The brokerage noted that crude prices have reversed from the $100-a-barrel level seven times over the past seven months.

The rupee was another concern, although BofA said recent inflows of around $136 billion should provide support to the currency and maintained an appreciation bias.

Weak monsoon conditions were also among the risks, with the current rainfall deficit at 13 per cent, close to the 15 per cent worst-case scenario previously projected by the brokerage.

BofA also expects limited further acceleration in aluminium and copper prices. On monetary policy, its economist expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points by December 2026, compared with around 45 basis points currently priced by swap markets.

The three remaining risks include a possible surge in primary market issuances, with around $30 billion expected between September and December and issuance activity likely to peak in October. Another risk is the possibility of 75 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes, compared with around 35 basis points currently priced by markets. Over the longer term, BofA also flagged the potential impact of artificial intelligence-led disruption on employment in India.

New Delhi, Sep 14: India has approved a proposal to supply power to Nepal for 18 hours a day till December 31 this year, following the extensive damage caused to the Himalayan country’s hydropower projects in the devastating flash floods, an official statement said on Monday.

“The Ministry of Power has accorded approval for the export of power, for 18 hours a day to Nepal Electricity Authority till December 31, 2026,” according to the statement.

Approval has been given for up to 600MW of export through Muzaffarpur-Dhalkebar 400 kV D/c line and up to 54 MW through Tanakpur-Mahendranagar 132 kV S/c line. The quantum of power to be exported from January 2027 will be reviewed in December, 2026, the statement said.

The recent floods have caused significant damage to hydropower infrastructure in Nepal, reducing its domestic power generation capacity and creating an additional requirement for electricity.

The approval will help Nepal meet its power requirements during this difficult period and further strengthen the close and longstanding energy cooperation between India and Nepal, the statement explained.

“India remains committed to supporting Nepal and strengthening bilateral cooperation in the energy sector,” the statement added.

India also intensified its humanitarian assistance to Nepal in the wake of the floods, delivering relief material and deploying personnel to support search, rescue, and forensic operations. Indian Air Force aircraft were used to carry relief and rescue supplies to Kathmandu.

The country also dispatched specialised technical gear, including mud rescue suits, gas detectors, breathing apparatus, inflatable walkways, portable generators, lighting towers, and dewatering pumps. India has provided DNA kits, reagents, and equipment for DNA profiling to aid in victim identification.

Meanwhile, the death toll from flash floods has risen to 1,386, with more bodies recovered from eight affected districts.

The floods, triggered by an ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border on August 26, devastated towns and villages in northern and central Nepal.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, 104 of the recovered bodies have so far been identified and handed over to families. Around 5,130 people are still reported missing.

Security forces continue search and rescue operations. More than 13,700 people have been rescued so far, while 339 people are undergoing treatment in hospitals.

Mumbai, Sep 13: The Sensex is likely to consolidate between 74,000 and 75,200 in the near term, while the Nifty may face immediate resistance around 23,500 and could see further downside if it slips below last week’s low, analysts said on Sunday, as Indian equities enter a holiday-shortened week after five consecutive weeks of losses.

The Indian stock market will remain closed for trading on Monday, September 14, on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. Investors will return to the market on Tuesday after benchmark indices ended the previous week under pressure from elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields and concerns over persistent US inflation.

Looking ahead, analysts said the broader technical outlook for the Sensex remains sideways, with the index expected to consolidate in the 74,000–75,200 range in the near term. Holding the 74,000–74,160 support zone could keep the recovery attempt intact and allow the index to retest the 75,000–75,200 levels.

“A decisive breakout above the resistance zone would strengthen the outlook and open the door for further upside, while a break below 74,000 could bring renewed selling pressure. For now, the market remains cautious but shows signs of resilience after the sharp recovery from lower levels,” market experts said.

For the Nifty, analysts said a sustained move above 23,500 could signal a pullback towards the 23,650 level in the coming sessions. However, failure to reclaim 23,500 could keep the index in consolidation mode within the 23,230–23,500 range.

“Immediate bias in the index remains down and a follow-through weakness below last week’s low of 23,231 will open downside towards the short-term support placed around the June low of 23,070 levels in the coming week,” analysts said.

The Sensex declined 2.27 per cent over the week to close at 74,781.76, while the Nifty fell 2.09 per cent to settle at 23,398.10. The broader market also remained weak, with the Nifty Midcap index declining 1.40 per cent and the Smallcap index slipping 0.88 per cent.

On Friday, however, domestic equities recovered sharply from their intraday lows as crude oil prices eased following their recent rally. The moderation in oil prices triggered buying in oil-sensitive stocks, while the recent sell-off pushed benchmark indices into oversold territory, prompting value buying at lower levels.

The Nifty recovered 0.72 per cent from its intraday low before ending Friday 0.34 per cent lower at 23,398.10. The Sensex also staged a strong recovery from the day’s lows, although it finally closed 0.16 per cent down at around 74,780.

They added that the current downtrend would show signs of a pause only after the formation of a higher high and higher low on a sustained basis on the daily chart.