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RBI’s monetary policy meet: Here’s some of the expectations

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Though the RBI’s raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no-brainer”, as its Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.

Besides policy rates, investors also eye other macro-economic forward-looking guidance from the central bank.

The three-day meeting started on Monday.

In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy.

In the same off-cycle meeting, the cash reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.

India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.

Besides, wholesale inflation in the country rose to 15.08 per cent in April 2022 from 14.55 percent in March, which has been in double digit for over a year now.

Below are some of the expectations by analysts, market observers, and real estate players on the possible outcome of the ongoing monetary policy meeting:

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities

MPC’s off-cycle policy meeting in May clearly pivoted its focus on inflation over growth as a policy priority. The MPC is likely to increase the benchmark repo rate in its ongoing monetary policy review as inflation shows no signs of abatement.

The RBI is likely to follow a nuanced and calibrated approach to rate hikes once it reaches its pre-Covid neutral accommodation (5.15 per cent vs current 4.40 per cent). We expect a 40 basis points rate hike in the upcoming policy meet and see the RBI raising policy rates to 5.15 per cent by calendar year end.

Any further rate hikes will be contingent on the inflation-growth dynamics and would be data dependent.

Hence, equity markets and debt markets have for the most part discounted this rate hike and market reaction would depend more on the statement of the RBI Governor hinting about the future course of action.

Ashish Chaturmohta, Director, Research Group at JM Financial Services

India is currently facing the heat of “imported inflation” owing to rising crude prices, supply chain disruption and global liquidity absorption.

Hence, to control the same, the government has played its role by reducing petrol and diesel prices, bringing in restrictions for exports in order to keep the domestic market stable etc, and on the other hand, the RBI has been very proactive in their actions, which was clearly visible from their 40 base points surprise rate hike.

It’s been the first time in the last several years that the RBI and the Government are both working in a synchronised way. We believe the rate hike would be 30-40 basis points along with a stable outlook on the GDP.

Mohit Batra, Founder and CEO of MarketsMojo

The RBI will try to tackle two issues in its upcoming monetary policy – tackle inflation and ensure that the rupee does not depreciate too much against the dollar. The last time when the RBI revised its inflation target, crude was at $100 per barrel, and now it’s trading at $120 per barrel, suggesting a risk of inflation flaring up is high.

Keeping these facts like rupee depreciation and high inflation rate, I expect RBI to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points.

Satish Kumar, Research Analyst at Choice Broking

We are estimating a repo rate hike of 40 basis points by the central bank in the coming monetary policy to contain the inflation which rose to 8-year high of 7.8 per cent in April. Upside risks to inflation remain elevated given the prevailing high crude oil and commodity prices amidst supply side concerns.

Pushpender Singh, MD of JMS Group

The outcome of the MPC meeting is pretty obvious, most probably leading to an inevitable hike in the repo rate in lieu of a concerted effort to lower the inflation rates, which perhaps is becoming a huge aberrant in the growth parameters of the economy. I do not expect to see a massive increase in the repo rate but definitely, a slight rise will be announced to curb the dwindles and shift the radar of growth in the right direction.

Aman Sharma, Director at Spaze Group

There are great chances of a repo rate hike yet again in a bid to control the inflationary rates that grow unabated despite direct attempts to stop it. It has to be accepted with a pinch of salt by the industries across the segments which will face teething troubles due to the probable hike after the RBI’s MPC meeting.

A surge in the repo rate is almost certain, I do not think there will be a sharp insurgence but somewhat a marginal increase to let the inflationary challenges deflate and the numbers drop.

Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS, Hem Securities

The repo rate is anticipated to be raised by another 40-50 basis points by the MPC. This decision is influenced by rising price levels as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-chain pressures, which are driving inflation higher. The primary goal of the RBI would be to keep inflation under control and minimise its second-round impacts.

Inflationary pressures on food and fuel remain high, and supply-chain disruptions continue to put upward pressure on input costs. The biggest issue is that if rates are raised further, urban demand, which was formerly a major concern, may dwindle. Agricultural output will be supported by favourable weather conditions, thus rural demand may not be affected as much.

Ashish Khandelia, Founder of Certus Capital

We expect the repo increase to be between 40-50 basis points in upcoming MPC meeting with future increases leading to 5.75 per cent (where we were exactly 3 years ago) or upwards by the end of FY23. 40 basis points increase in May caused homes loans to move in to 7 per cent +/- range from 6.5 per cent earlier.

And by the end of this financial year, home loan rates will likely touch 8 per cent. This is unlikely to derail the housing momentum, but it will certainly soften it. Coupled with increasing prices, the growth may slow down a bit in FY23, after a record FY22.

Business

RBI reduces inflation forecast to 3.7 pc for 2025-26

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Mumbai, June 6: The RBI has revised its inflation outlook for 2025-26 downwards from the earlier forecast of 4 per cent to 3.7 per cent, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday.

Taking all these factors into consideration, and assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is now projected at 3.7 per cent, with Q1 at 2.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.4 per cent, Q3 at 3.9 per cent, and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.

He pointed out that Inflation has softened significantly over the last six months from above the tolerance band in October 2024 to well below the target, with signs of a broad-based moderation. The near-term and medium-term outlook now gives us the confidence of not only a durable alignment of headline inflation with the target of 4 per cent, as exuded in the last meeting, but also the belief that during the year, it is likely to undershoot the target at the margin.

While food inflation outlook remains soft, core inflation is expected to remain benign with easing of international commodity prices in line with the anticipated global growth slowdown, Malhotra explained.

He pointed out that CPI headline inflation continued its declining trajectory in March-April, with headline CPI inflation moderating to a nearly six-year low of 3.2 per cent (y-o-y) in April 2025. This was led mainly by food inflation, which recorded the sixth consecutive monthly decline.

Fuel group witnessed a reversal of deflationary conditions and recorded positive inflation prints during March and April, partly reflecting the hike in LPG prices. Core inflation remained largely steady and contained during March-April, despite the increase in gold prices exerting upward pressure, Malhotra said.

The outlook for inflation points towards benign prices across major constituents. The record wheat production and higher production of key pulses in the Rabi crop season should ensure an adequate supply of key food items. Going forward, the likely above normal monsoon along with its early onset augurs well for Kharif crop prospects.

Reflecting this, inflation expectations are showing a moderating trend, more so for the rural households. Most projections point towards continued moderation in the prices of key commodities, including crude oil, the RBI Governor said.

However, at the same time, Malhotra had a word of caution. “Notwithstanding these favourable prognoses, we need to remain watchful of weather-related uncertainties and still evolving tariff-related concerns with their attendant impact on global commodity prices,” he added.

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International

Man shot in targeted attack in Australian state of Queensland

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Sydney, June 6: A man has been hospitalised with serious injuries following a targeted shooting in the Australian state of Queensland.

The Queensland Police Service said on Friday that emergency services were deployed to a house in Parkwood, 65 kilometres southeast of Brisbane, around 7:50 p.m. on Thursday in response to reports that a man had sustained gunshot wounds to his leg and other injuries to his hand.

According to media, the 21-year-old man was found at the scene with serious injuries and was taken to hospital in a stable condition.

A police statement said that initial inquiries indicated that the incident was a targeted shooting and that there was no ongoing threat to the public.

An investigation into the attack was ongoing and police commenced a search for the perpetrator.

In a separate incident, Australian police are investigating a fatal stabbing in a remote outback mining town west of Sydney.

Emergency services were called to conduct a welfare check at a home in Broken Hill, over 900 kilometers from Sydney in the far west outback of the state of New South Wales (NSW), just after 11:50 p.m. on Thursday.

Police officers arrived at the scene where they found a man, believed to be aged in his 40s, with stab wounds to his neck.

He was treated by ambulance paramedics but could not be revived and was declared deceased.

Local police established a crime scene at the house and have commenced an investigation into the man’s death with assistance from the NSW Homicide Squad.

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National

Kerala Guv upset after Minister skips event displaying Bharat Mata’s portrait

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Thiruvananthapuram, June 6: Reacting to the controversy after the Kerala Agriculture Minister P. Prasad boycotted the state-level celebrations on the World Environment Day at the Raj Bhavan — the official residence of the state Governor, Rajendra V. Arlekar, the latter expressed his displeasure.

Speaking at the event as the state Governor, Arlekar expressed his displeasure by saying that the Agriculture Minister should also have been present here.

“The State Education Minister informed that he could not come. Then the Agriculture Minister also did not come. I do not know what better issues we have, the Agriculture Minister wanted to remove the portrait of Bharat Mata from the dais,” said Governor Arlekar.

“I told them that we will do everything else, but we cannot remove Bharat Mata’s portrait as this is what we are living for and probably that’s the reason why they did not come,” he added.

“What sort of thinking we have in our minds,” lamented Governor Arlekar.

The reason was that the State Agriculture Minister did not want the portrait of the Bharat Mata, commonly used by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), to be placed on the central dais.

Minister Prasad told the media that the programme was decided after speaking to the Governor.

“Last night, a change was made, and this was not acceptable to the state government. The picture was not the regular Bharat Mata picture which we use, but at the Raj Bhavan, it was the one that is used by the RSS. It is not right to keep such pictures, and the Governor said it cannot be changed, and hence the state government decided not to take part in the event at the Raj Bhavan,” he said.

“This is an unconstitutional thing. It is only after this Governor took over that there have been such changes. We have the highest regard and respect towards the normal Bharat Mata picture, but not the one used by the RSS,” Prasad added.

Incidentally, on Tuesday evening, officials from the concerned Minister’s office were at the Raj Bhavan for an inspection of the Central Hall, where the picture of Bharat Mata was kept.

Later, the officials who visited the Raj Bhavan told the Minister about the picture. Following this, the Minister spoke to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, and later, the decision was taken that Minister Prasad would not attend the meeting.

The Minister called the Raj Bhavan and told that he would not be able to attend the event if the picture of Bharat Mata used by the RSS was not removed.

However, Governor Arlekar stood his ground and said that the picture of Bharat Mata would not be removed.

Later, the state government decided to hold a function in the Durbar Hall of the State Secretariat to mark the World Environment Day celebrations.

The Kerala Chief Secretary, A. Jayathilak, was directed to organise a separate event.

Prior to this event, on Thursday, there were two different state-level functions — one chaired by Governor Arlekar at the Raj Bhavan and the other in the Durbar Hall with Minister Prasad presiding over.

Prasad, a first-time legislator, is a member of the Commmunist Party Of India (CPI).

Former Kerala Minister and State CPI Secretary, Binoy Viswam, said this was unacceptable, as the picture of Bharat Mata used by the RSS should not be displayed at a state function.

Incidentally, last month, Governor Arlekar had invited prominent RSS ideologue S. Gurumurthy for a talk after the successful Operation Sindoor, and Chief Minister Vijayan had said that it was wrong to convert the Raj Bhavan into a place for the RSS.

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