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‘US economic recovery slowing due to Delta variant spread’

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The US economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is slowing due to the spread of the Delta variant and a sizable segment of unvaccinated people, Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP, has said.

“In the United States, infections have increased to a rate of 157,000 per day, with each loss of life and the use of medical resources and foregone activity taking their toll on economic progress,” Brusuelas said in a blog post, adding that’s a significant increase from 12,000 Covid-19 cases per day in June.

Brusuelas noted that “the refusal of a segment of the US population to accept vaccination” is restraining overall economic activity and the full reopening of the economy, as around 62 per cent of the total American population over 12 have been fully vaccinated so far,” reports Xinhua news agency.

“Businesses that have been scrambling to find workers and input products to meet surging demand are now likely to find customers-and workers-less willing to risk exposure to an unvaccinated person or to an unwitting transmission of the delta variant,” he said, adding his firm recently downgraded its forecast for US economic growth in the second half of the year.

“We are now anticipating the economy to grow by 6.5 per cent for the entire year with the risk of lower growth should events dictate. Should the delta variant spread further, then we would expect to shave more than a percentage point off that forecast in the upcoming days or weeks,” he said.

Brusuelas’ comments came after economists at Goldman Sachs recently downgraded their forecast for US economic growth in the third quarter to 5.5 per cent from 9 per cent due to the impact of the Delta variant.

“The impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected,” economists at the investment bank said, noting spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August.

Brusuelas also warned that the fourth wave of the pandemic caused by the Delta variant has the potential to rival the peak of infections of earlier this year, as populations move back indoors in the fall and winter.

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Govt proposes new fuel economy norms for cars from April 1, 2027

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New Delhi, July 16: The Ministry of Power on Thursday circulated the draft Corporate Average Fuel Economy 2027 Norms (CAFE-III) for stakeholder consultation, which propose a fresh five-year fuel efficiency regime for passenger vehicles, beginning from April 1, 2027.

The draft norms apply to M1 category vehicles, a classification that covers passenger cars carrying up to eight people besides the driver, which includes all hatchbacks, sedans and SUVs sold for personal use. The category excludes commercial goods carriers and buses, according to an official statement.

The existing CAFE-II norms are likely to lapse on March 31, 2027. Compliance under CAFE-III will be assessed in two phases, the first covering three years and the second the remaining two, with fuel efficiency targets progressing to more stringent levels through each passing year.

The framework, overseen by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency under the Ministry of Power, aims to bring down average fleet emissions from current levels to a significantly lower threshold by FY32, according to earlier drafts reported in the media.

Compliance credits have been priced at Rs 2,500 each, rising by Rs 500 every year through the period, with unused credits expiring once the compliance period ends. Automakers that fail to meet targets could face penalties, though the detailed amounts have not been mentioned. Manufacturers selling fewer than 1,000 vehicles annually will remain exempt.

Industry has differed in its response to earlier versions of the draft. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has backed the proposal as balanced, while some carmakers have pushed for relief on small petrol cars and others have opposed differentiated treatment for that segment.

The ministry has invited suggestions from stakeholders and the public. Feedback can be sent to the Under Secretary, Energy Conservation, at the ministry’s New Delhi office, or can be emailed.

The last date for submissions is August 6, 2026. The draft norms will also be uploaded on the websites of the Ministry of Power and the Bureau of Energy Efficiency shortly, the statement said.

M1 vehicles are subject to stringent fuel efficiency and emission targets under Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) norms, which are regularly updated to reduce greenhouse gases.

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Govt hikes windfall duty on diesel, ATF exports

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New Delhi, July 16: The Centre has raised windfall taxes on exports of diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) while lowering the levy on petrol exports, as surging global oil prices driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict boosted refining margins, with the revised rates taking effect from Thursday.

According to a Finance Ministry notification, the export duty on diesel has been increased to Rs 15.5 per litre from Rs 8.5 per litre, while the levy on aviation turbine fuel has been raised to Rs 14.5 per litre from Rs 7.5 per litre.

At the same time, the government has reduced the export duty on petrol to Rs 2.5 per litre from Rs 4 per litre.

The revised rates came into effect from July 16, according to the notification.

The latest revision comes amid a sharp rise in global crude oil prices following an escalation in hostilities between the United States and Iran.

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday before easing slightly after US President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports, prompting Iran to launch retaliatory strikes on US infrastructure in the region.

Earlier this month, the government had revised the windfall tax on exports of petroleum products by raising the levy on petrol while reducing the duties on diesel and aviation turbine fuel.

The Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on petrol exports was increased to Rs 4 per litre from Rs 1.5 per litre. At the same time, the export duty on diesel was reduced to Rs 8.5 per litre from Rs 14 per litre, while the levy on ATF exports was cut to Rs 7.5 per litre from Rs 12.5 per litre.

The government reviews windfall taxes on domestically produced crude oil and exports of petroleum products at regular intervals to align the levies with changes in international crude prices and refining margins.

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Sensex, Nifty trade higher led by consumer durables and IT stocks

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Mumbai, July 16: Indian equity benchmark indices traded higher in the morning session on Thursday despite mixed global cues.

Sensex jumped over 300 points or 0.42 per cent to hit an intraday high of 77,514.30 in early trade, while Nifty rose 88 points or 0.36 per cent to 24,167 amid buying in consumer durables, IT and auto stocks.

Nifty Consumer Durables index surged 1.63 per cent, followed by Nifty IT, which gained 1.38 per cent, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom, up 1.13 per cent, and Nifty Auto, which advanced 0.72 per cent.

On the downside, financial stocks remained under pressure, with the Nifty MidSmall Financial Services index falling 1 per cent and Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank declining 0.88 per cent. Nifty Realty, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices also traded lower.

SBI Life, HDFC Life, ONGC, Axis Bank, BEL, Max Healthcare Institute, Grasim Industries and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise were among the top laggards on the Nifty.

Analysts said the market is likely to trade in a narrow range with a positive bias as crude oil prices remain broadly steady and global markets stabilise.

Investors will closely track the June quarter earnings season, with banks and NBFCs expected to post healthy numbers backed by robust credit growth, according to them.

They further noted that automobile companies are also likely to remain in focus amid expectations of strong quarterly growth, supported by GST cuts and easier availability of finance, while profitable digital platform companies could continue to attract investor interest.

Meanwhile, Brent crude rose 0.71 per cent to around $85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.24 per cent to $80.59 a barrel.

Among Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei traded over 2 per cent lower and South Korea’s KOSPI declined around 6 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained about 2 per cent.

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