Business
‘US economic recovery slowing due to Delta variant spread’
The US economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is slowing due to the spread of the Delta variant and a sizable segment of unvaccinated people, Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP, has said.
“In the United States, infections have increased to a rate of 157,000 per day, with each loss of life and the use of medical resources and foregone activity taking their toll on economic progress,” Brusuelas said in a blog post, adding that’s a significant increase from 12,000 Covid-19 cases per day in June.
Brusuelas noted that “the refusal of a segment of the US population to accept vaccination” is restraining overall economic activity and the full reopening of the economy, as around 62 per cent of the total American population over 12 have been fully vaccinated so far,” reports Xinhua news agency.
“Businesses that have been scrambling to find workers and input products to meet surging demand are now likely to find customers-and workers-less willing to risk exposure to an unvaccinated person or to an unwitting transmission of the delta variant,” he said, adding his firm recently downgraded its forecast for US economic growth in the second half of the year.
“We are now anticipating the economy to grow by 6.5 per cent for the entire year with the risk of lower growth should events dictate. Should the delta variant spread further, then we would expect to shave more than a percentage point off that forecast in the upcoming days or weeks,” he said.
Brusuelas’ comments came after economists at Goldman Sachs recently downgraded their forecast for US economic growth in the third quarter to 5.5 per cent from 9 per cent due to the impact of the Delta variant.
“The impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected,” economists at the investment bank said, noting spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August.
Brusuelas also warned that the fourth wave of the pandemic caused by the Delta variant has the potential to rival the peak of infections of earlier this year, as populations move back indoors in the fall and winter.
Business
Uttar Pradesh moving from local to global: Piyush Goyal

New Delhi, Aug 3: Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday said that Uttar Pradesh is steadily transforming from a local economic powerhouse into a global growth engine, driven by the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
Highlighting the impact of India’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Goyal said the state’s leading sectors are gaining greater access to international markets, creating new opportunities for exporters, artisans, farmers and manufacturers.
“Uttar Pradesh moving from local to global. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Uttar Pradesh is reaching new heights of development,” Goyal said in a post on social media platform X.
He emphasised that trade agreements signed by India are helping connect the state’s products and industries with international markets.
The minister noted that Uttar Pradesh’s key manufacturing and traditional sectors are benefiting from expanding export opportunities.
Kanpur’s renowned leather industry, which has long been a major contributor to the state’s economy, is expected to gain wider access to overseas markets through India’s trade partnerships.
Goyal also highlighted Noida’s rapidly growing electronics manufacturing sector, saying that global market access created through FTAs is opening new possibilities for exporters and manufacturers in the region.
Noida has emerged as one of the country’s major electronics production hubs and is playing an increasingly important role in India’s export ecosystem.
Apart from industrial products, traditional handicrafts from Saharanpur are also poised to benefit from greater international demand.
The minister said artisans and small businesses engaged in the handicrafts sector could access new markets abroad as trade barriers are reduced through various agreements.
Agricultural producers in western Uttar Pradesh are also expected to gain from the expanding trade landscape.
“Through Free Trade Agreements, Kanpur’s leather, Noida’s electronics, Saharanpur’s handicrafts, and agricultural products from Western Uttar Pradesh are gaining new opportunities in global markets,” he mentioned.
Business
RBI’s 3-day MPC meeting begins today; all eyes on repo rate decision

Mumbai, Aug 3: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting — led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra — begins on Monday with investors and economists closely tracking the central bank’s assessment of inflation, economic growth and the future interest rate trajectory ahead of the policy decision due on August 5.
The policy announcement is expected to provide cues on the outlook for interest rates, liquidity conditions and the broader economy amid an uncertain global environment.
Many analysts expect the six-member MPC to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent after maintaining the status quo in its June meeting.
According to SBI Research, the RBI is likely to leave policy rates unchanged as consumer price inflation is expected to remain above 5 per cent over the next two quarters, while domestic economic activity has shown signs of strengthening.
The report said Q1 FY27 GDP growth could exceed 7 per cent, higher than earlier estimates.
It further stated that an explicitly dovish message from the central bank appears unlikely in view of oil price volatility, pressure on the rupee and caution over external capital flows.
However, the report noted that domestic fundamentals have improved helped by strong capital inflows in July, a recovery in foreign exchange buffers, better monsoon conditions and near-normal reservoir levels.
Additionally, at its previous policy review in June, the RBI had unanimously retained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and kept its policy stance neutral.
The central bank also revised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent amid geopolitical tensions.
Markets will also closely watch the RBI’s commentary on inflation risks, growth prospects and global developments for signals on the future course of monetary policy.
Business
Sensex, Nifty surge up to 1 pc in early trade as lower crude, FII buying boost sentiment

Mumbai, Aug 3: Indian equity markets traded higher on Monday as benchmarks rallied up to 1 per cent in morning trade, supported by broad-based buying across banking, FMCG and metal stocks amid easing crude oil prices, sustained monsoon progress and renewed foreign fund inflows.
Sensex surged 800 points or 1.02 per cent to an intraday high of 78,895.10 in early deals, while Nifty climbed 192.85 points or 0.79 per cent to 24,576.45.
Sector-wise, FMCG, metal, cement and banking shares led gains, with Nifty FMCG, Nifty Metal, Nifty Chemicals, Nifty Cement, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices rising up to 1 per cent.
However, media, pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks remained under selling pressure, with Nifty Media, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare falling up to 1.6 per cent.
Broader markets also witnessed buying interest, with Nifty Microcap 500 and Nifty Smallcap 100 advancing about 1 per cent.
According to analysts, the market appears poised for a breakout above the 24,500 level on the Nifty, aided by falling crude oil prices, favourable monsoon progress and foreign institutional investors turning net buyers.
Resilient economic growth despite global headwinds, credit growth running above 18 per cent, healthy automobile sales and better-than-expected first-quarter earnings indicate that FY27 earnings growth could surpass earlier estimates, they said.
The market experts further noted that strong inflows through FCNR(B), ECB and OFCB routes have helped stabilise the rupee, facilitating the return of foreign investors.
From a derivatives perspective, Nifty’s near-term trading range remains well defined. Significant ‘PUT’ open interest around the 24,400 strike continues to provide a strong support base, while heavy ‘CALL’ writing near 24,600 is expected to cap near-term upside, according to the experts.
Meanwhile, the immediate support is placed at 24350, backed by a concentration of PUT open interest, indicating that traders expect Nifty to remain largely range-bound.
A sustained hold above 24,350 would support a mildly bullish bias, while a break below that level could weaken sentiment.
Meanwhile, Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — plunged more than 5 per cent to $83.31 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined nearly 7 per cent to $78.78 a barrel which also provided further support to market sentiment.
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