Business
‘US economic recovery slowing due to Delta variant spread’
The US economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is slowing due to the spread of the Delta variant and a sizable segment of unvaccinated people, Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP, has said.
“In the United States, infections have increased to a rate of 157,000 per day, with each loss of life and the use of medical resources and foregone activity taking their toll on economic progress,” Brusuelas said in a blog post, adding that’s a significant increase from 12,000 Covid-19 cases per day in June.
Brusuelas noted that “the refusal of a segment of the US population to accept vaccination” is restraining overall economic activity and the full reopening of the economy, as around 62 per cent of the total American population over 12 have been fully vaccinated so far,” reports Xinhua news agency.
“Businesses that have been scrambling to find workers and input products to meet surging demand are now likely to find customers-and workers-less willing to risk exposure to an unvaccinated person or to an unwitting transmission of the delta variant,” he said, adding his firm recently downgraded its forecast for US economic growth in the second half of the year.
“We are now anticipating the economy to grow by 6.5 per cent for the entire year with the risk of lower growth should events dictate. Should the delta variant spread further, then we would expect to shave more than a percentage point off that forecast in the upcoming days or weeks,” he said.
Brusuelas’ comments came after economists at Goldman Sachs recently downgraded their forecast for US economic growth in the third quarter to 5.5 per cent from 9 per cent due to the impact of the Delta variant.
“The impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected,” economists at the investment bank said, noting spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August.
Brusuelas also warned that the fourth wave of the pandemic caused by the Delta variant has the potential to rival the peak of infections of earlier this year, as populations move back indoors in the fall and winter.
Business
Global crude prices rise 0.73 pc as US-Iran talks stall

New Delhi, Crude oil prices rose on Friday as efforts to resolve the Iran crisis reached a stalemate, with Tehran continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz and Washington restricting Iranian crude exports.
Brent futures for July on Intercontinental Exchange gained $0.81, or 0.73 per cent, to $111.21 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 31 cents, or 0.30 per cent, to $105.37. Both benchmarks have posted gains for four consecutive months, analysts noted.
Brent crude oil had crossed $120 per barrel for the first time in 4 years, heightening inflation concerns and putting pressure on global markets.
Market participants flagged new supply concerns after Brent’s June contract, which expired on Thursday, hit $126.41 a barrel, its highest level since March 2022.
British and European central banks cautioned about rising inflation, while the United States is working towards a coalition of allied countries and shipping companies to ensure secure transit through Hormuz.
A ceasefire though in effect since April 8 felt shaky, as on Thursday evening, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said it was unrealistic to expect quick outcomes from negotiations with the US, according to multiple reports.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are boosting inflation and complicating policy. Asia faces greater economic risks from the energy shock, he added.
The price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased by Rs 993, starting Friday, and after the revision, a 19-kg cylinder will now cost Rs 3,071.5 in Delhi.
However, there has been no change in the price of domestic LPG cylinders for 33 crore users, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) said in a statement.
This is the third time that the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased since February 28, when the US-Israel and Iran war began.
Business
Sensex, Nifty fall nearly 1 pc as oil surge weighs on sentiment

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Mumbai, Indian equity benchmarks started Thursday’s session — the final trading day of the week — on a weaker note, with both indices declining nearly 1 per cent in early deals, as a sharp jump in crude oil prices dented sentiment and outweighed support from stock-specific earnings gains.
Sensex fell as much as 0.95 per cent or over 700 points to 76,759.37 in early trade, hitting an intraday low, while Nifty declined 0.96 per cent or more than 200 points to 23,943.45.
Selling pressure was broad-based, with auto, banking, realty, metal, consumer durables and FMCG stocks, falling up to 1 per cent. Eternal, Shriram Finance, IndiGo, M&M, Jio Financial Services, Tata Motors PV, Axis Bank, Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were among the top laggards.
While Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap, Nifty 200 and Nifty 500 indices declined by up to around 1 per cent. Meanwhile, the India VIX rose 2.7 per cent to 17.91, indicating heightened market volatility.
According to a market expert, two key headwinds could impact markets in the near term.
“Brent crude at around $120 threatens India’s macroeconomic stability. If prices remain elevated, it could pose downside risks to growth and push inflation higher,” the expert said.
“Secondly, stronger-than-expected results from AI majors in the US and South Korea may extend the ongoing AI trade, potentially leading to further portfolio outflows from India,” he added.
The Fed’s decision to hold rates was on expected lines and is unlikely to have a significant impact. However, the rise in US 10-year bond yields to 4.4 per cent could further incentivise capital outflows from India,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
Exit polls indicating consolidation of the ruling party’s position may offer some sentiment support but do not materially alter market fundamentals.
“Investors can focus on companies reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and strong outlooks, where opportunities remain,” he said.
Oil prices rallied after US President Donald Trump reportedly held talks with oil companies on steps to reduce the impact of a potential prolonged blockade of Iran’s ports, raising concerns over possible disruptions to global crude supplies.
Separately, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, broadly in line with expectations, while cautioning about inflation risks stemming from the Iran conflict. Market participants have also pared back expectations of rate cuts in 2026.
Crude oil prices are approaching their 52-week highs of $114.81. Brent crude was trading at $113.18 per barrel, up 2.48 per cent from the previous close, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $109.64 per barrel, also higher on the day.
However, Brent crude hovered close to $120 per barrel after surging over 6 per cent on Wednesday to its highest level since June 2022.
In Asian markets, indices were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were down over 1 per cent, South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.40 per cent, while Singapore’s Straits Times gained 0.65 per cent.
On Wall Street, US markets ended on a flat note, with the S&P 500 settling at 7,135.95, down 0.04 per cent, and the Nasdaq finishing at 24,673.24, up 0.04 per cent.
Notably, domestic equity markets will remain shut for trading on Friday, May 1, in observance of Maharashtra Day.
Business
Gold, silver see muted trade amid Iran-US de-escalation hopes

Mumbai, Gold and silver prices traded on a flat note on Monday amid a rise in crude oil prices and reports of a fresh proposal by Iran to end the conflict with the US, raising hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5 contract) were trading at Rs 1,52,410 per 10 grams, down 0.19 per cent or Rs 290 from the previous close of Rs 1,52,699.
By 11:00 A.M., the yellow metal touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,008, up 0.20 per cent or Rs 309.
Meanwhile, silver futures (May 5 contract) were trading at Rs 2,43,200, down Rs 1,436 or 0.6 per cent.
The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,45,473, up 0.34 per cent or Rs 837 from the previous close, and a low of Rs 2,43,009, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,627.
According to a commodity market expert, precious metals are trading with a cautious bias, with prices largely driven by key technical levels amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
On COMEX, gold is holding above the $4,700–$4,680 support zone, with further downside possible below $4,650, while a sustained move above $4,750–$4,800 could revive momentum towards $4,900, the expert said.
On MCX, gold is hovering near Rs 1,52,500, with resistance seen around Rs 1,54,000 and support at Rs 1,50,000, the expert added.
The analyst also said that silver is also showing a cautious undertone, noting that volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical tensions, keeping the overall outlook range-bound in the near term.
In the international market, both metals were largely flat. On COMEX, gold was trading marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at $4,742 per ounce, while silver was down 0.05 per cent at $76 per ounce.
However, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, although Iran has reportedly proposed a fresh peace initiative to the US aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict.
Amid global uncertainty, gold and silver have delivered strong returns to investors over the past year. Gold has gained over 40 per cent in dollar terms over the past year and more than 18 per cent in six months.
Meanwhile, silver has more than doubled investors’ money over the past year and gained over 60 per cent in the last six months.
Additionally, Brent crude jumped over 2 per cent to $107.77, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced to $96.68, an increase of 2.41 per cent.
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