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Tough road ahead for India’s Crypto moment

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The Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill 2021, seeking to prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India, was set to be tabled in the Winter Session of Parliament that began on November 29. But the Bill did not make it to the table — second time in a year — as the chorus around the legality of digital coins and how to safeguard investors’ money grew louder.

Grave concerns have now been raised over the misuse of digital coins on the Dark Web for terror acts and drugs trafficking by militant organisations, and for money laundering and hawala-based transactions — posing serious threat to national security and a big challenge to the security agencies in India.

While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies, the government remains in a confused state of mind.

From “all windows on cryptocurrencies will not be closed” to “no proposal to recognise Bitcoin as currency”, and “regulating cryptocurrency will have to be a collective effort”, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her team is yet to make up their mind as to how to deal with this emerging situation, especially at a time when several countries like China, Bangladesh, Russia, Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, Turkey and Vietnam have banned or prohibited/restricted cryptocurrencies.

Will India finally see a fruitful Crypto Bill, after inserting global knowledge into its clauses as being sought by the government, next year?

According to Subhash Chandra Garg, former Finance Secretary of India and a key figure behind drafting the original Bill, crypto businesses and assets (built on the Blockchain cryptography technology in decentralised databases), including stable-coin currencies, are expanding fast in the world.

“India, though not quite deep into developing crypto platforms like Ethereum or in creating crypto-businesses, has acquired a fancy for crypto-assets of different types. This fascination started with Bitcoin and has now expanded to many other crypto-assets (loosely referred to as crypto-currencies),” Garg told IANS.

Garg sees this fascination continuing in 2022 as well.

“Although, if there is a big crash in crypto-asset prices, which is inevitable sooner or later, Indian investors might bolt from crypto-stables, but only after their noses get bruised,” he warned.

Organisations globally were forecast to spend nearly $6.6 billion on Blockchain solutions this year, an increase of more than 50 per cent compared to 2020, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC).

Blockchain spending will continue to see strong growth throughout the 2020-2024 forecast period with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48 per cent and reaching nearly $19 billion in 2024.

The deployment of Blockchain technology for cross-border settlement will drive significant cost savings for banks, rising from $301 million in 2021 to $10 billion in 2030 — a whopping 3,300 per cent growth in cost savings, according to a report from Juniper Research.

From an industry perspective, banking leads the way in Blockchain spending, followed by process manufacturing and discrete manufacturing and IT services and business services.

Given its pool of tech talent and early adoption, India will have a crucial role to play in the Blockchain-based financial world order.

“Blockchain-cryptography technology is brilliant and full of promise and the businesses and assets being built thereon are quite valuable. However, there is no good way at present to assess the true value of crypto-assets and businesses. Present prices reflect the euphoria of this potential,” Garg noted.

“Indian entrepreneurs might also be able to unscramble this technology by then and start building good crypto-Blockchain technology service businesses. That would be the beginning of true crypto adoption in the country,” he added.

Amid the growing adoption around Blockchain, the cryptocurrency exchanges have recently mushroomed with deep business interests in mind.

According to experts, the government must not only ensure that investors’ money is safe, but also trace millions of dollars that have been routed via crypto exchanges and platforms that the relevant authorities have no clue about.

A media report said in November that over Rs 4,000 crore of illegal transactions via cryptocurrency exchanges have been unearthed by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the last one year.

“The crypto craze has reached Tier 2 and 3 towns and non-regulation of this market of Rs 6 lakh crore size is raising questions on the sovereign authority of the Government of India. Non-levy of GST in various layers of its transaction and non-imposition of income tax with penalty is already causing huge loss to the state and Central government’s revenues,” said New Delhi-based cyberlaw expert Virag Gupta.

The Indian government faces a tough road ahead on Crypto in 2022, and taking the right decision will have to be a collective one.

Business

US Fed decision, Iran peace deal hopes among key triggers for D-Street next week

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Mumbai, June 14: The Indian stock market is likely to remain driven by global cues in the coming week, with investors closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, developments surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement and trends in crude oil prices.

Benchmark indices ended the previous week on a positive note, breaking a two-week losing streak amid improving investor sentiment.

The Nifty gained 1.10 per cent to close at 23,622.90, while the Sensex rose 1.73 per cent to settle at 75,527.95.

The primary focus for global markets will be the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 16-17.

While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors will closely scrutinise the central bank’s commentary on inflation, economic growth and the future rate trajectory. Any indication regarding the timing of potential rate cuts could influence foreign fund flows into emerging markets, including India.

Geopolitical developments in West Asia will also remain on investors’ radar. Market sentiment received a boost after US President Donald Trump said a peace agreement with Iran aimed at ending the conflict in the region would be signed on June 14. Investors will monitor the progress of the proposed deal and its implications for global trade and energy markets.

The reopening of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments, is expected to ease concerns over supply disruptions. Any further improvement in regional stability could support risk appetite across global equity markets.

Crude oil prices will be another key factor influencing domestic equities. Oil prices recently fell to their lowest levels since the initial phase of the Iran conflict amid expectations of increased crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and optimism surrounding a temporary peace arrangement. Sustained moderation in oil prices could provide relief to India’s inflation outlook and reduce pressure on the country’s import bill.

Meanwhile, investors will also assess the impact of the Reserve Bank of India’s latest measures to encourage foreign currency inflows. The central bank has introduced forex swap facilities for eligible external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and fresh FCNR(B) deposits, a move expected to strengthen liquidity conditions and support market sentiment.

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ED arrests 2 former executives of Reliance Anil Ambani Group, company responds (Lead)

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Mumbai, June 13: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has arrested two former executives of the Reliance Anil Ambani Group under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) in Mumbai, according to officials.

The probe agency took transit remand of Satish Seth and Gautam Doshi, who previously served as directors of Reliance Telecom Ltd.

The CBI had booked and raided the premises of the duo in March as part of its investigation into an alleged loan fraud worth Rs 114.98 crore at the State Bank of India (SBI).

Seth has previously served as Vice Chairman of Reliance Infrastructure. He will be produced in a Delhi court for further custody.

In a statement, a Reliance Group spokesperson said that “Satish Seth (age 70 years) and Gautam Doshi (age 73 years) are not associated with the Group”.

“Seth served the Group as a Group Managing Director and as a Director on the Boards of several companies. Seth left the Group in 2025. Gautam Doshi served the Group as a Group Managing Director and as a Director on the Boards of several companies, both within and outside the Group. Doshi left the Group six years ago, in 2020,” the spokesperson added.

The SBI was a member of the consortium of 11 banks which had sanctioned a total of Rs 735 crore Term Loan facility to Reliance Telecom Ltd, the CBI had said. The ED is understood to have taken cognisance of this CBI complaint and is investigating the roles of Seth and Doshi in this bank loan fraud case.

Earlier in June, the CBI had arrested Reliance Communications’ former Group Managing Director, Amitabh Jhunjhunwala, in connection with the loss of Rs 2,929.05 crore caused to the SBI by the company in alleged loan fraud, officials said. He was produced before the court, following which the CBI formally arrested him.

Meanwhile, the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) on Thursday admitted a plea filed by the SBI and initiated personal insolvency resolution proceedings against industrialist Anil Ambani in his capacity as a personal guarantor for loans extended to Reliance Communications (RCOM) and Reliance Infratel Ltd (RITL).

Reacting to the decision, a spokesperson for Anil Ambani said that the order, once available, will be reviewed by his legal team and challenged through appropriate legal remedies, as advised. “Mr Ambani remains confident of vindicating his position before the appropriate forums,” the spokesperson added.

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Nifty, Sensex post notable gains this week over hopes of US-Iran peace pact

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Mumbai, June 13: The Indian equity benchmarks posted notable gains this week after two weeks of consecutive losses, over investor optimism about potential US-Iran peace agreement, and decline in Brent crude prices.

Nifty added 1.10 per cent during the week and gained 1.99 per cent on the last trading day to reach 23,622. At close, Sensex was up 1,695 points or 2.30 percent at 75,527. It added 1.73 per cent during the week.

The Indian equities showed structural resilience in a turbulent week, marked by global headwinds and continued uncertainty surrounding the US Fed’s policy trajectory, analysts said.

Large-cap stocks outperformed broader markets, while mid- and small-cap segments witnessed profit booking following their recent strong rally.

While US bond yields eased during the week, persistent inflationary pressures and resilient labour market data are keeping the expectations of a delayed rate-cut cycle intact, an analyst said.

“Indian equities traded in a range-bound manner with a mild negative bias, witnessing a modest recovery toward the end of the week,” he added.

Meanwhile, domestic bond yields moderated, supported by RBI policy measures that improved liquidity conditions and attracted foreign inflows into the debt market.

On the sectoral front, financials emerged as the top performers, led by private banks after favourable regulatory developments and a defensive rotation away from higher-beta growth segments. FMCG stocks also advanced on expectations of sustained pricing power.

IT sector continued its decline and metal stocks were weighed down by softer commodity prices amid muted demand expectations from China.

Market participants said that a slowdown in FII selling or improved visibility on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction could serve as a trigger, for domestic capital unloading in the secondary market.

Cumulative FII selling during the week stood at approximately Rs 15,300 crore, continuing to act as a key headwind for domestic equities, although the pace of outflows moderated in the latter part of the period.

In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained strong buyers, recording net inflows of around Rs 24,000 crore.

Broad market indices performed in line with benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 gained 0.98 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 edged up 0.48 per cent during the week.

Nifty 50 is expected to see the 23,800 zone as a crucial resistance area. The 23,550–23,500 region is expected to act as immediate support, market participants said.

In Bank Nifty, immediate resistance is placed around the 56,900–57,000 zone and the 56,500–56,400 zone continues to act as an immediate support zone.

Investors remain keen on key macroeconomic data points, including domestic WPI inflation, China’s industrial output, and the upcoming US Fed decision.

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