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Tough road ahead for India’s Crypto moment

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The Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill 2021, seeking to prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India, was set to be tabled in the Winter Session of Parliament that began on November 29. But the Bill did not make it to the table — second time in a year — as the chorus around the legality of digital coins and how to safeguard investors’ money grew louder.

Grave concerns have now been raised over the misuse of digital coins on the Dark Web for terror acts and drugs trafficking by militant organisations, and for money laundering and hawala-based transactions — posing serious threat to national security and a big challenge to the security agencies in India.

While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies, the government remains in a confused state of mind.

From “all windows on cryptocurrencies will not be closed” to “no proposal to recognise Bitcoin as currency”, and “regulating cryptocurrency will have to be a collective effort”, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her team is yet to make up their mind as to how to deal with this emerging situation, especially at a time when several countries like China, Bangladesh, Russia, Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, Turkey and Vietnam have banned or prohibited/restricted cryptocurrencies.

Will India finally see a fruitful Crypto Bill, after inserting global knowledge into its clauses as being sought by the government, next year?

According to Subhash Chandra Garg, former Finance Secretary of India and a key figure behind drafting the original Bill, crypto businesses and assets (built on the Blockchain cryptography technology in decentralised databases), including stable-coin currencies, are expanding fast in the world.

“India, though not quite deep into developing crypto platforms like Ethereum or in creating crypto-businesses, has acquired a fancy for crypto-assets of different types. This fascination started with Bitcoin and has now expanded to many other crypto-assets (loosely referred to as crypto-currencies),” Garg told IANS.

Garg sees this fascination continuing in 2022 as well.

“Although, if there is a big crash in crypto-asset prices, which is inevitable sooner or later, Indian investors might bolt from crypto-stables, but only after their noses get bruised,” he warned.

Organisations globally were forecast to spend nearly $6.6 billion on Blockchain solutions this year, an increase of more than 50 per cent compared to 2020, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC).

Blockchain spending will continue to see strong growth throughout the 2020-2024 forecast period with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48 per cent and reaching nearly $19 billion in 2024.

The deployment of Blockchain technology for cross-border settlement will drive significant cost savings for banks, rising from $301 million in 2021 to $10 billion in 2030 — a whopping 3,300 per cent growth in cost savings, according to a report from Juniper Research.

From an industry perspective, banking leads the way in Blockchain spending, followed by process manufacturing and discrete manufacturing and IT services and business services.

Given its pool of tech talent and early adoption, India will have a crucial role to play in the Blockchain-based financial world order.

“Blockchain-cryptography technology is brilliant and full of promise and the businesses and assets being built thereon are quite valuable. However, there is no good way at present to assess the true value of crypto-assets and businesses. Present prices reflect the euphoria of this potential,” Garg noted.

“Indian entrepreneurs might also be able to unscramble this technology by then and start building good crypto-Blockchain technology service businesses. That would be the beginning of true crypto adoption in the country,” he added.

Amid the growing adoption around Blockchain, the cryptocurrency exchanges have recently mushroomed with deep business interests in mind.

According to experts, the government must not only ensure that investors’ money is safe, but also trace millions of dollars that have been routed via crypto exchanges and platforms that the relevant authorities have no clue about.

A media report said in November that over Rs 4,000 crore of illegal transactions via cryptocurrency exchanges have been unearthed by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the last one year.

“The crypto craze has reached Tier 2 and 3 towns and non-regulation of this market of Rs 6 lakh crore size is raising questions on the sovereign authority of the Government of India. Non-levy of GST in various layers of its transaction and non-imposition of income tax with penalty is already causing huge loss to the state and Central government’s revenues,” said New Delhi-based cyberlaw expert Virag Gupta.

The Indian government faces a tough road ahead on Crypto in 2022, and taking the right decision will have to be a collective one.

Business

Sensex, Nifty post notable losses amid weak global cues, sustained FII selling

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Mumbai, April 23: The Indian equity markets posted sharp losses early on Thursday tracking cautious global cues and sustained foreign institutional selling, after the recent rally.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex lost 671 points, or 0.85 per cent, to reach 77,845 and Nifty dipped 179 points, or 0.74 per cent, to reach 24,198.

Main broad-cap indices showed divergence with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 dipped 0.34 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 0.16 per cent.

All sectoral indices traded in red except pharma as well as oil and gas up 0.71 per cent and 0.02 per cent. Nifty auto and consumer durables were the top losers down 1.03 per cent and 1.61 per cent respectively.

The immediate support zone of Nifty is placed at near 24,100–24,000, while resistance is observed in the 24,400–24,500 range.

In the previous session, benchmark indices on a weaker note after failing to sustain higher levels. Selling pressure was visible in banking and financial stocks following their recent outperformance.

IT stocks also remained weak, tracking subdued global cues and uncertainty in overseas markets. FMCG, Energy and other defensive sectors showed relative resilience.

The US markets gained after President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, saying it was warranted due to Tehran’s “seriously fractured” government.

President Trump said the ceasefire will be in place until Iran submits a proposal or concludes talks, even as the US military continues its blockade of Iranian ports.

On the fundamental side, earnings remain a strong tailwind, with Q1 earnings growth tracking and forward EPS estimates seeing upward revision, market participants said.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index lost 0.74 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 1.48 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.06 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.2 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.91 per cent.

The US markets ended in green overnight as Nasdaq gained 1.64 per cent. The S&P 500 advanced 1.05 per cent, and the Dow Jones added 0.69 per cent.

On April 22, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 2,078 crore in India, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also net sellers of equities worth Rs 1,078 crore.

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Sensex, Nifty extend rally for 3rd day on hopes of US-Iran ceasefire extension

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Mumbai, April 21: Indian equity benchmarks extended their gains for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, as investor sentiment improved amid expectations that the United States and Iran may prolong their ceasefire during upcoming talks.

The Nifty and the Sensex ended higher, supported by buying in select heavyweight stocks and optimism around easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

At the closing bell, the Nifty was at 24,576.60, up by 0.87 per cent or 211.75 points. The Sensex ended the intra-day session 0.96 per cent or 753.03 points higher at 79,273.33.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the 24,600 level now acts as an immediate resistance where minor supply was observed.

“A decisive breakout and sustained move above this level could open further upside toward 24,850, followed by the key psychological level of 25,000, where stronger supply is expected,” an analyst stated.

“On the downside, the 24,350–24,400 range has now turned into an immediate support zone after acting as resistance earlier,” an analyst mentioned.

Among the top gainers on the Nifty were Nestle India, Trent, and Hindustan Unilever, which helped lift the benchmark index.

Broader markets also reflected positive momentum, with the Nifty MidCap index closing 0.49 per cent higher and the Nifty SmallCap index rising 0.88 per cent.

On the sectoral front, the Nifty FMCG and the Nifty Realty outperformed other indices, driven by strong buying interest.

In contrast, the Nifty Pharma lagged and emerged as the worst-performing sector for the day.

Investors remained cautiously optimistic about geopolitical developments, as both Iranian and US delegations, along with US Vice President JD Vance, are expected to participate in talks aimed at reaching a broader agreement to end hostilities in the region.

However, uncertainty persists as tensions between the two countries escalated ahead of the meeting.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a post on X that Tehran does not support negotiations under threats and indicated that the country is prepared to respond strongly if required.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump warned that failure to reach an agreement before the ceasefire deadline could trigger fresh military escalation, stating that “a lot of bombs” could go off if talks collapse.

“Indian equities are expected to continue their gradual upmove, supported by improving macros, easing crude, and strong Q4 earnings momentum,” an analyst stated.

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‘Make attractive fuel option’: Govt panel favours scrapping excise duty on CNG

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New Delhi, April 17: A high-level government committee, supported by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), has recommended removing excise duty on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to lower prices and promote consumption of the green fuel to meet India’s target of achieving a 15 per cent share of natural gas in the fuel mix by 2030.

The key recommendations include removing the 14 per cent excise duty to make CNG a more attractive fuel option and also lowering GST on CNG vehicles to 5 per cent to bring them on par with electric vehicles to accelerate adoption.

The recommendations favour maintaining a competitive price difference between CNG and petrol so that consumers are encouraged to switch to the green fuel.

The tax relief on natural gas is anticipated to impact roughly 1.9 crore households and 38.41 lakh potential users.

These proposals aim to address the currently high taxes, such as the 14 per cent excise duty and state VAT, which have made CNG less competitive in certain regions, particularly in the southern states.

Meanwhile, the government has also been encouraging households to switch to piped natural gas (PNG) from LPG as the West Asia crisis has disrupted supply chains. The expansion of piped natural gas (PNG) has gained momentum, with about 4.58 lakh new PNG connections being gasified and about 5.1 lakh additional customers registering for new connections since March this year.

Till April 15, about 35,000 PNG consumers have surrendered their LPG connections via MYPNGD.in website. States have been advised to facilitate new PNG connections for domestic and commercial consumers.

The government is encouraging natural gas adoption through synergy between the PNGRB and states as part of India’s transition toward a cleaner and more sustainable energy future. As part of the strategy to increase the share of natural gas in the country’s energy mix, the expansion of the City Gas Distribution (CGD) network through Piped Natural Gas (PNG) connections has emerged as one of the key performing areas.

Spearheaded by entities authorised by the PNGRB, the CGD network now spans 307 geographical areas (GAs), covering nearly 100 per cent of the country’s geographical area except islands, touching around 784 districts across 34 states and Union Territories. The government has undertaken a series of policy and regulatory measures to catalyse growth in this sector.

These measures range from allocating administered price domestic gas and easing supply mechanisms to mandating PNG provisions in government and defence residential complexes, granting Public Utility status to CGD projects, and directing the CPWD and the NBCC to include PNG provisions in all government residential complexes.

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