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Tough road ahead for India’s Crypto moment

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The Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill 2021, seeking to prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India, was set to be tabled in the Winter Session of Parliament that began on November 29. But the Bill did not make it to the table — second time in a year — as the chorus around the legality of digital coins and how to safeguard investors’ money grew louder.

Grave concerns have now been raised over the misuse of digital coins on the Dark Web for terror acts and drugs trafficking by militant organisations, and for money laundering and hawala-based transactions — posing serious threat to national security and a big challenge to the security agencies in India.

While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies, the government remains in a confused state of mind.

From “all windows on cryptocurrencies will not be closed” to “no proposal to recognise Bitcoin as currency”, and “regulating cryptocurrency will have to be a collective effort”, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her team is yet to make up their mind as to how to deal with this emerging situation, especially at a time when several countries like China, Bangladesh, Russia, Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, Turkey and Vietnam have banned or prohibited/restricted cryptocurrencies.

Will India finally see a fruitful Crypto Bill, after inserting global knowledge into its clauses as being sought by the government, next year?

According to Subhash Chandra Garg, former Finance Secretary of India and a key figure behind drafting the original Bill, crypto businesses and assets (built on the Blockchain cryptography technology in decentralised databases), including stable-coin currencies, are expanding fast in the world.

“India, though not quite deep into developing crypto platforms like Ethereum or in creating crypto-businesses, has acquired a fancy for crypto-assets of different types. This fascination started with Bitcoin and has now expanded to many other crypto-assets (loosely referred to as crypto-currencies),” Garg told IANS.

Garg sees this fascination continuing in 2022 as well.

“Although, if there is a big crash in crypto-asset prices, which is inevitable sooner or later, Indian investors might bolt from crypto-stables, but only after their noses get bruised,” he warned.

Organisations globally were forecast to spend nearly $6.6 billion on Blockchain solutions this year, an increase of more than 50 per cent compared to 2020, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC).

Blockchain spending will continue to see strong growth throughout the 2020-2024 forecast period with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48 per cent and reaching nearly $19 billion in 2024.

The deployment of Blockchain technology for cross-border settlement will drive significant cost savings for banks, rising from $301 million in 2021 to $10 billion in 2030 — a whopping 3,300 per cent growth in cost savings, according to a report from Juniper Research.

From an industry perspective, banking leads the way in Blockchain spending, followed by process manufacturing and discrete manufacturing and IT services and business services.

Given its pool of tech talent and early adoption, India will have a crucial role to play in the Blockchain-based financial world order.

“Blockchain-cryptography technology is brilliant and full of promise and the businesses and assets being built thereon are quite valuable. However, there is no good way at present to assess the true value of crypto-assets and businesses. Present prices reflect the euphoria of this potential,” Garg noted.

“Indian entrepreneurs might also be able to unscramble this technology by then and start building good crypto-Blockchain technology service businesses. That would be the beginning of true crypto adoption in the country,” he added.

Amid the growing adoption around Blockchain, the cryptocurrency exchanges have recently mushroomed with deep business interests in mind.

According to experts, the government must not only ensure that investors’ money is safe, but also trace millions of dollars that have been routed via crypto exchanges and platforms that the relevant authorities have no clue about.

A media report said in November that over Rs 4,000 crore of illegal transactions via cryptocurrency exchanges have been unearthed by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the last one year.

“The crypto craze has reached Tier 2 and 3 towns and non-regulation of this market of Rs 6 lakh crore size is raising questions on the sovereign authority of the Government of India. Non-levy of GST in various layers of its transaction and non-imposition of income tax with penalty is already causing huge loss to the state and Central government’s revenues,” said New Delhi-based cyberlaw expert Virag Gupta.

The Indian government faces a tough road ahead on Crypto in 2022, and taking the right decision will have to be a collective one.

Business

WhatsApp keeps ‘username feature’ launch on hold; wins more time to respond to govt notice

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Meta-backed messaging platform WhatsApp has assured the Indian government it will not roll out its proposed username feature in the country until ongoing consultations with authorities are completed, sources familiar with the matter said.

The Meta‑owned messaging platform has also been granted an additional three days to respond to the government notice seeking clarification on the feature. The original deadline for WhatsApp’s reply had lapsed on Friday.

WhatsApp had proposed a username option which would allow users to communicate on WhatsApp without sharing their phone numbers.

The Central government issued a formal notice last week expressing concerns that such a move could heighten risks of online fraud, phishing and impersonation. The government asked WhatsApp to keep the feature on hold until discussions address its security and consumer‑protection concerns, and a Meta delegation met officials from the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology on Friday to discuss the matter.

Earlier this week, WhatsApp reiterated that several safeguards have been built into the username feature to prevent impersonation, scams and unwanted contact as it prepares for a wider rollout later this year.

The messaging platform addressed a series of frequently asked questions on microblogging platform X after concerns were raised over the feature, including by the government, which has asked the company to defer its rollout in the country pending consultations.

The company said users will not be required to create a username and that existing Instagram and Facebook usernames, along with those of public figures, celebrities, government entities and Meta Verified accounts, have been reserved so they can only be claimed by their legitimate owners.

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Sensex, Nifty extend winning streak to 4th day; realty, auto stocks lead rally

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Indian equity benchmarks extended their winning streak to a fourth consecutive session on Monday, supported by strong buying in realty, auto, oil and gas stocks.

The Nifty closed 159.50 points, or 0.66 per cent, higher at 24,430.35, while the Sensex advanced 521.16 points, or 0.67 per cent, to settle at 78,285.07.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the 24,500–24,600 zone will remain a crucial region to watch in the upcoming sessions, as a decisive move above this band could confirm the continuation of the ongoing bullish trend.

“On the downside, the 24,200 level is expected to act as immediate support in case of any profit booking, followed by the 24,000 psychological zone, which remains the crucial zone,” an analyst said.

Among the Nifty constituents, HDFC Bank, Hindalco Industries and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) emerged as the top gainers, helping lift the benchmark indices.

The broader market also ended on a positive note. The Nifty MidCap index gained 0.45 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index outperformed with a 0.75 per cent rise.

Sectoral indices largely traded in the green, with the Nifty Realty index leading the gains and closing at a six-month high. The Nifty Auto index climbed to its highest level in a month, while the Nifty Oil and Gas and Nifty Consumer Durables indices also posted strong gains.

Experts said that the day’s rally marked the fourth straight session of gains for the benchmark indices, with sustained buying across rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors underpinning market sentiment.

“Market sentiment remains positive, supported by the decline in the India VIX, which reflects improving investor confidence,” an analyst stated.

“The rally was broad-based, with real estate, oil & gas, automobiles and consumer durables emerging as the top-performing sectors, each advancing around 1 per cent during the session, as buying interest remained widespread across the market,” as per the expert.

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Gold posts 1st weekly gain since May as US Fed rate hike fears ease

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Mumbai, July 4: Gold recorded its first weekly gain since May as trader expectations for further US Federal Reserve rate hikes moderated, pushing bullion prices around 3.1 per cent for the week.

Soft US job numbers and lower energy prices led to investors reducing the expectations of monetary policy tightening.

However, on Friday, MCX gold August futures eased 0.01 per cent while MCX silver July futures inched up 0.04 per cent. Currently, gold futures stand at Rs 1,47,365, while silver futures at Rs 2,37,499 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,46,344 on Friday, up from Rs 1,41,911 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

“Gold extended its recovery for the fourth consecutive session and touched a 10-day high on Friday. The rebound comes after more than a month of sustained selling following the May 13 import duty hike, with improving sentiment supported by a softer US dollar,” an analyst said.

The analyst said that the recent pullback in the Dollar Index has encouraged fresh buying in bullion, and forecasted that the bullion is expected to trade in the Rs 1,45,000–1,49,000 range, with global cues continuing to drive sentiment.

Market participants said softer US labour data and easing energy costs reduced the probability of further Fed tightening. US hiring slowed sharply in June and traders trimmed the probability of a quarter‑point rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting to below 20 per cent, down from roughly one‑third earlier in the week.

Lower energy costs and softer job growth have led analysts to forecast a gradual easing of inflationary pressures in coming months.

Oil prices have witnessed their sharpest quarterly correction since 2020 as shipments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates near pre-war levels.

US President Donald Trump and allies have renewed efforts to clear the way for more of the president’s own picks at the Federal Reserve after the Supreme Court blocked an attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook.

Similar efforts last year, challenging Fed’s independence, helped fuel gold’s rally as investors sought protection against potential policy shifts.

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