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Tough road ahead for India’s Crypto moment

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The Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill 2021, seeking to prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India, was set to be tabled in the Winter Session of Parliament that began on November 29. But the Bill did not make it to the table — second time in a year — as the chorus around the legality of digital coins and how to safeguard investors’ money grew louder.

Grave concerns have now been raised over the misuse of digital coins on the Dark Web for terror acts and drugs trafficking by militant organisations, and for money laundering and hawala-based transactions — posing serious threat to national security and a big challenge to the security agencies in India.

While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies, the government remains in a confused state of mind.

From “all windows on cryptocurrencies will not be closed” to “no proposal to recognise Bitcoin as currency”, and “regulating cryptocurrency will have to be a collective effort”, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her team is yet to make up their mind as to how to deal with this emerging situation, especially at a time when several countries like China, Bangladesh, Russia, Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, Turkey and Vietnam have banned or prohibited/restricted cryptocurrencies.

Will India finally see a fruitful Crypto Bill, after inserting global knowledge into its clauses as being sought by the government, next year?

According to Subhash Chandra Garg, former Finance Secretary of India and a key figure behind drafting the original Bill, crypto businesses and assets (built on the Blockchain cryptography technology in decentralised databases), including stable-coin currencies, are expanding fast in the world.

“India, though not quite deep into developing crypto platforms like Ethereum or in creating crypto-businesses, has acquired a fancy for crypto-assets of different types. This fascination started with Bitcoin and has now expanded to many other crypto-assets (loosely referred to as crypto-currencies),” Garg told IANS.

Garg sees this fascination continuing in 2022 as well.

“Although, if there is a big crash in crypto-asset prices, which is inevitable sooner or later, Indian investors might bolt from crypto-stables, but only after their noses get bruised,” he warned.

Organisations globally were forecast to spend nearly $6.6 billion on Blockchain solutions this year, an increase of more than 50 per cent compared to 2020, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC).

Blockchain spending will continue to see strong growth throughout the 2020-2024 forecast period with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48 per cent and reaching nearly $19 billion in 2024.

The deployment of Blockchain technology for cross-border settlement will drive significant cost savings for banks, rising from $301 million in 2021 to $10 billion in 2030 — a whopping 3,300 per cent growth in cost savings, according to a report from Juniper Research.

From an industry perspective, banking leads the way in Blockchain spending, followed by process manufacturing and discrete manufacturing and IT services and business services.

Given its pool of tech talent and early adoption, India will have a crucial role to play in the Blockchain-based financial world order.

“Blockchain-cryptography technology is brilliant and full of promise and the businesses and assets being built thereon are quite valuable. However, there is no good way at present to assess the true value of crypto-assets and businesses. Present prices reflect the euphoria of this potential,” Garg noted.

“Indian entrepreneurs might also be able to unscramble this technology by then and start building good crypto-Blockchain technology service businesses. That would be the beginning of true crypto adoption in the country,” he added.

Amid the growing adoption around Blockchain, the cryptocurrency exchanges have recently mushroomed with deep business interests in mind.

According to experts, the government must not only ensure that investors’ money is safe, but also trace millions of dollars that have been routed via crypto exchanges and platforms that the relevant authorities have no clue about.

A media report said in November that over Rs 4,000 crore of illegal transactions via cryptocurrency exchanges have been unearthed by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the last one year.

“The crypto craze has reached Tier 2 and 3 towns and non-regulation of this market of Rs 6 lakh crore size is raising questions on the sovereign authority of the Government of India. Non-levy of GST in various layers of its transaction and non-imposition of income tax with penalty is already causing huge loss to the state and Central government’s revenues,” said New Delhi-based cyberlaw expert Virag Gupta.

The Indian government faces a tough road ahead on Crypto in 2022, and taking the right decision will have to be a collective one.

Business

Nifty, Sensex post notable gains this week over easing crude prices, US-Iran talks

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Mumbai, May 23: Indian equity benchmarks posted notable gains during the week as sentiments improved over easing crude oil prices and reports of indirect US–Iran talks.

Nifty gained 0.32 per cent during the week and added 0.27 per cent on the last trading day to reach 23,719. At close, Sensex was up 231 points or 0.31 per cent at 75,415. It advanced 0.24 per cent during the week.

“Despite the rebound, investors largely remained cautious, with limited conviction at higher levels continuing to cap upside momentum,” an analyst said.

The IT sector stood out as a clear outperformer, benefiting from attractive valuations following the recent correction.

Realty, cement, and private banks also held up while FMCG and consumer durables underperformed as concerns of WPI pass-through weighed on margins.

Midcap indices outperformed benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 added 1.36 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 gained 0.41 per cent during the week.

The rupee found much-needed support as crude prices exhibited a modest pullback over persistent efforts to ease Middle East tensions.

However, fears of tightening monetary policy amidst expectations of higher input inflation provided an upward push for domestic bond yields, analysts said.

The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 during the week, reflecting growing concerns around sticky inflation, elevated energy prices and rising macroeconomic uncertainty.

It reinforced concerns that higher-for-longer interest rates could continue to pressure global liquidity conditions and risk assets.

Nifty 50 is expected to see the 23,800–24,000 region as a strong resistance zone and the 23,400–23,300 region remains a crucial support area, market participants said.

In Bank Nifty, immediate resistance is placed around the 54,200 level and the 53,600–53,500 region continues to act as an immediate support zone.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) largely remained net sellers, with cumulative outflows at around Rs 7,570 crore, a market participant said.

Investors remain keen on cues from India’s April IIP print, which will offer clues on whether recent manufacturing softness is a passing or persistent concern.

The RBI’s June policy decision and the US core PCE data are also key triggers for the market. A higher PCE print would push back expectations of US Fed rate cuts, limiting the prospect of meaningful FII inflows into emerging markets.

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Fuel Prices Rise Again: Petrol Nears ₹109/Litre, Diesel Crosses ₹95 In Mumbai After 3rd Hike In 10 Days Amid Global Oil Tensions

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Mumbai: Mumbaikars were hit with another fuel price shock on Saturday as petrol and diesel rates were increased yet again, marking the third hike this month amid rising global crude oil prices and ongoing tensions in West Asia. With the latest revision, petrol in Mumbai is now inching closer to the Rs 109-per-litre mark, while diesel has crossed Rs 95 per litre.

State-run oil companies raised petrol prices by 87 paise per litre and diesel by 91 paise per litre across major cities. In Mumbai, petrol prices climbed from Rs 107.62 to Rs 108.49 per litre, while diesel rose from Rs 94.11 to Rs 95.02 per litre, according to an ANI report quoting sources.

The latest increase comes just days after fuel prices were hiked by around Rs 3 per litre on May 16, followed by another nearly 90-paise revision on May 19. Overall, petrol and diesel prices have surged by almost Rs 5 per litre within a week, putting additional pressure on commuters, transporters and households already battling inflation.

The repeated hikes are expected to majorly impact Mumbai’s daily economy, especially local transport operators, cab drivers, delivery services and small businesses dependent on fuel-intensive logistics. The rising transportation costs have also triggered fresh price increases in vegetables, milk, groceries and other essential commodities across the city.

The increase also comes amid growing concerns over global crude oil supply disruptions due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia and fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. India imports nearly 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements, making domestic fuel prices highly sensitive to international market fluctuations.

A day before the latest revision, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas had attempted to calm panic among consumers by assuring that the country has adequate fuel stock and that supply chains remain stable despite rising demand.

“India has adequate availability of petrol and diesel. Supplies across the country continue to remain stable. Citizens are advised to avoid panic buying and purchase fuel only as per actual requirement,” the ministry said in an official statement. Officials also stated that oil marketing companies are continuously monitoring fuel distribution to prevent shortages at retail outlets.

Apart from Mumbai, fuel prices also rose sharply in other metro cities. In Delhi, petrol reached Rs 99.51 per litre while diesel climbed to Rs 92.49. Kolkata recorded petrol prices at Rs 110.64 and diesel at Rs 97.02, while Chennai saw petrol touching Rs 105.31 per litre.

The latest fuel hike is likely to further intensify inflationary concerns in Mumbai, where rising milk, bread and transportation costs have already increased pressure on household budgets in recent weeks.

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Sensex, Nifty post mild gains over hopes of US-Iran deal

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Mumbai, May 22: The Indian equity markets posted mild gains early on Friday tracking positive global cues, over optimism regarding US-Iran peace negotiations.

As of 9.23 am, Sensex added 307 points, or 0.41 per cent, to reach 75,491 and Nifty gained 89 points, or 0.38 per cent to reach 23,744.

Main broad-cap indices showed divergence with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 added just 0.06 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 0.02 per cent.

Sectoral indices on NSE traded mixed with gains led by Nifty PSU bank and Nifty private bank up 0.53 per cent and 0.75 per cent, respectively. Nifty media and realty were the top losers down 0.83 per cent and 0.75 per cent, respectively.

Immediate support for Nifty is placed around the 23,500–23,550 zone, while resistance is seen near the 23,850–23,900 range, market participants said. Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed around the 53,300–53,500 zone, while resistance is seen near the 54,400–54,500 range.

Analysts noted that market activity is majorly marked by buying on dips and selling on rallies, probably led by institutional activity.

Brent crude declining to below $105 and rupee appreciating to 96.20 from 96.96 level are positive developments, they added.

Broader market activity shows an optimistic trend due to positive quarterly earnings from small and midcaps.

Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Friday over investor optimism regarding diplomatic efforts in reaching a peace deal in the Middle East.

Tehran said it remains committed to keeping enriched uranium stockpiles within the country, according to reports, which could pose challenges in concluding a deal with Washington, as US President Donald Trump continues to claim dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme as his central military objective.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index gained 0.33 per cent, and Shenzhen added 1.2 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei advanced 2.29 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index inched up 0.9 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.17 per cent.

The US markets ended in green overnight as Nasdaq gained 0.09 per cent. The S&P 500 advanced 0.17 per cent, and the Dow Jones added 0.55 per cent.

On May 21, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 1,891 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought equities worth Rs 2,492 crore.

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