New Delhi, June 14: There is 80 per cent likelihood of an El Nino event during the June–August period and probabilities for this, to continue until at least November, are near or above 90 per cent, according to a new report. However, the reservoir level is more than normal storage (till June 11) in the country and the arrivals statistics of vegetables are also satisfactory.

“Only coming days will tell us whether the supply conditions are sufficient from any incipient shock from food and fuel on inflation or not”, said the Bank of Baroda Research note.

According to economist Dipanwita Mazumdar, CPI inflation is projected to settle in the range of 5.2 per cent–5.5 per cent in FY27, assuming some impact from El Nino and an average crude oil price of $90–100 per barrel.

Headline CPI inflation came in at 3.9 per cent in May 2026, lower than BoB Research’s estimate of 4.1 per cent and up from 3.5 per cent in April.

The increase was largely driven by higher food and fuel prices, with food inflation rising to 4.8 per cent.

Transport inflation accelerated following the recent petrol and diesel price hikes, while restaurant and accommodation services inflation also moved higher.

Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) increased to 3.9 per cent, indicating emerging underlying price pressures.

Looking ahead, BoB Research expects inflationary risks from higher fuel costs and weather-related uncertainties, particularly the likelihood of El Nino conditions impacting food prices.

“For food inflation, the spillover of higher fuel cost and likely increase in freight cost might feed into further high inflation in the near term. Hence the second-round pass-through needs to be closely monitored, especially when weather-related risks are elevated this year,” said the report.

Going forward, “we believe that upside risks to core will intensify as firms might pass through some degree of higher input costs to consumers amidst stable demand conditions. The risks on food inflation is also likely to intensify in the coming days,” the report added.

Mumbai, June 14: The Indian stock market is likely to remain driven by global cues in the coming week, with investors closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, developments surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement and trends in crude oil prices.

Benchmark indices ended the previous week on a positive note, breaking a two-week losing streak amid improving investor sentiment.

The Nifty gained 1.10 per cent to close at 23,622.90, while the Sensex rose 1.73 per cent to settle at 75,527.95.

The primary focus for global markets will be the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 16-17.

While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors will closely scrutinise the central bank’s commentary on inflation, economic growth and the future rate trajectory. Any indication regarding the timing of potential rate cuts could influence foreign fund flows into emerging markets, including India.

Geopolitical developments in West Asia will also remain on investors’ radar. Market sentiment received a boost after US President Donald Trump said a peace agreement with Iran aimed at ending the conflict in the region would be signed on June 14. Investors will monitor the progress of the proposed deal and its implications for global trade and energy markets.

The reopening of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments, is expected to ease concerns over supply disruptions. Any further improvement in regional stability could support risk appetite across global equity markets.

Crude oil prices will be another key factor influencing domestic equities. Oil prices recently fell to their lowest levels since the initial phase of the Iran conflict amid expectations of increased crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and optimism surrounding a temporary peace arrangement. Sustained moderation in oil prices could provide relief to India’s inflation outlook and reduce pressure on the country’s import bill.

Meanwhile, investors will also assess the impact of the Reserve Bank of India’s latest measures to encourage foreign currency inflows. The central bank has introduced forex swap facilities for eligible external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and fresh FCNR(B) deposits, a move expected to strengthen liquidity conditions and support market sentiment.

Mumbai, June 13: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has arrested two former executives of the Reliance Anil Ambani Group under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) in Mumbai, according to officials.

The probe agency took transit remand of Satish Seth and Gautam Doshi, who previously served as directors of Reliance Telecom Ltd.

The CBI had booked and raided the premises of the duo in March as part of its investigation into an alleged loan fraud worth Rs 114.98 crore at the State Bank of India (SBI).

Seth has previously served as Vice Chairman of Reliance Infrastructure. He will be produced in a Delhi court for further custody.

In a statement, a Reliance Group spokesperson said that “Satish Seth (age 70 years) and Gautam Doshi (age 73 years) are not associated with the Group”.

“Seth served the Group as a Group Managing Director and as a Director on the Boards of several companies. Seth left the Group in 2025. Gautam Doshi served the Group as a Group Managing Director and as a Director on the Boards of several companies, both within and outside the Group. Doshi left the Group six years ago, in 2020,” the spokesperson added.

The SBI was a member of the consortium of 11 banks which had sanctioned a total of Rs 735 crore Term Loan facility to Reliance Telecom Ltd, the CBI had said. The ED is understood to have taken cognisance of this CBI complaint and is investigating the roles of Seth and Doshi in this bank loan fraud case.

Earlier in June, the CBI had arrested Reliance Communications’ former Group Managing Director, Amitabh Jhunjhunwala, in connection with the loss of Rs 2,929.05 crore caused to the SBI by the company in alleged loan fraud, officials said. He was produced before the court, following which the CBI formally arrested him.

Meanwhile, the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) on Thursday admitted a plea filed by the SBI and initiated personal insolvency resolution proceedings against industrialist Anil Ambani in his capacity as a personal guarantor for loans extended to Reliance Communications (RCOM) and Reliance Infratel Ltd (RITL).

Reacting to the decision, a spokesperson for Anil Ambani said that the order, once available, will be reviewed by his legal team and challenged through appropriate legal remedies, as advised. “Mr Ambani remains confident of vindicating his position before the appropriate forums,” the spokesperson added.