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Tuesday,18-November-2025
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RBI to take up repo rate hikes from April with a cumulative rise of 150bps in FY23

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The focus of the Union Budget 2022 is likely to be on investment-driven growth with a focus on infrastructure investment to generate multiplier effects to spur economic growth.

Morgan Stanley said in a report the focus will be on raising additional resources through strategic divestment and asset monetisation. Indeed, the overall focus of the government should be to utilise all revenue levers effectively (tax compliance to improve tax to GDP, strategic asset sales) to sustainably improve the health of the public sector balance sheet.

Fiscal data on a tracking basis has surprised positively, even as spending is tracking above budgeted levels due to the better-than- expected trend in tax collections. However, divestments have remained weak, and, as such, the eventual timing of the LIC IPO can have a bearing on the final fiscal deficit for F2022.

If the IPO goes through in Q4F22, as asserted by government officials, we opine the fiscal deficit would come in lower by 40bps (at 6.4 per cent of GDP) than the budgeted estimate at 6.8 per cent of GDP. If the IPO fails to materialise, we anticipate the fiscal deficit target would be in line with the government target of 6.8 per cent of GDP. In F2023, we anticipate slow-paced fiscal consolidation leading to a fiscal deficit of 6 per cent of GDP, driven by continued tax buoyancy, reduction in pandemic-related revenue spending and a pickup in divestment proceeds, Morgan Stanley said.

We expect the RBI to embark on policy normalisation with a 15-20bps hike in the reverse repo rate to normalise the policy rate corridor. We anticipate the impact on growth from the third-wave-led disruptions to be short-lived and concentrated primarily on the contact-intensive services sector. Moreover, the impact doesn’t weigh on the future growth trajectory,and thus does not warrant a further delay in policy normalisation, in our view.

Further, we expect inflation to rise on a YoY basis till March-22,and to only moderate from 2Q22, helped by sequential easing in global commodity prices. Following the adjustment in reverse repo rates, we expect the RBI to take up repo rate hikes, which in our base case starts from the April meeting, with a cumulative rise of 150bps in fiscal 2023.

Business

Gold, silver tumble as hopes of December Fed Rate cut fade

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Mumbai, Nov 18: Gold and silver prices dropped sharply in the domestic futures market on Tuesday morning as hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December faded and concerns over US tariffs eased.

This reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets like bullion. At early trade, MCX Gold December futures were trading 1.19 per cent lower at Rs 1,21,466 per 10 grams.

MCX Silver December contracts also declined 1.65 per cent to Rs 1,52,750 per kg.

“Gold has support at $4000-3965 while resistance at $4075-4110. Silver has support at $49.70-49.45 while resistance is at $50.75-51.10,” market watchers said.

“In INR gold has support at Rs1,22,350-1,21,780 while resistance at Rs1,23,750-1,24,500. Silver has support at Rs1,53,850-1,52,100 while resistance at Rs1,56,540, 1,57,280,” they added.

Internationally, gold prices slipped for the fourth straight session on Tuesday.

A stronger US dollar and weakening expectations of a rate cut next month continued to weigh on the metal.

The dollar index rose to 99.59, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold, which is priced in US dollars, becomes costlier when the greenback strengthens, resulting in reduced demand.

The recent US government shutdown, which lasted a record 43 days, had delayed the release of important economic data, creating uncertainty about the condition of the world’s largest economy.

With the shutdown now over, attention has shifted to key data releases expected this week, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday.

These numbers will play a major role in shaping expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to send mixed signals on the future path of monetary policy, adding further uncertainty to the market.

With no major positive fundamental triggers in recent days, bulls remain hesitant—especially with both metals still trading at historically high levels.

“Traders now await a fresh round of US economic data later this week. Meanwhile, a firmer US Dollar Index and slightly higher 10-year Treasury yields added pressure to precious metals,” analysts said.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty open lower on weak global cues

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Mumbai, Nov 18: Indian stock markets opened lower on Tuesday as weak global cues weighed on investor sentiment. Both benchmark indices slipped 0.2 per cent at the opening bell.

The Sensex dropped 195 points to trade at 84,756 in early deals, while the Nifty fell 64 points to 25,949. Most heavyweight stocks were under pressure, dragging the indices down.

“Immediate resistance now lies at 26,100, followed by 26,150, while the 25,850–25,900 band is likely to offer meaningful support and serve as an accumulation zone for positional traders,” market experts said.

“These levels will remain crucial as the index navigates early weakness,” experts noted.

Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma and Titan were among the major laggards, declining between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent.

However, a few stocks managed to stay in positive territory. Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Eternal and State Bank of India were the only gainers on the Sensex, rising up to 0.5 per cent.

Broader markets also opened weak, with the Nifty MidCap index slipping 0.25 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index falling 0.40 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank was the only one to trade higher, gaining 0.25 per cent. On the other hand, Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal dropped 0.8 per cent each, while the Nifty IT index fell 0.5 per cent.

The Bank Nifty mirrored the broader market’s resilience, reflecting renewed buying momentum.

“Strong support is identified at 58,600, and a breakdown below this mark may trigger a modest decline toward 58,800,” market watchers mentioned.

“On the upside, resistance at 59,100 remains a key barrier, and a sustained breakout above this level may open the path toward 59,300, indicating potential continuation of the bullish trend,” experts stated.

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Business

Indian PSU oil companies secure ‘historic’ deal to import 2.2 MTPA LPG from US: Puri

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New Delhi, Nov 17: In a key development, Indian public sector oil companies have finalised a deal for imports of around 2.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) LPG for the contract year 2026, to be sourced from the US Gulf Coast, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.

In a post on X social media platform, he said that in a historic first, “one of the largest and the world’s fastest growing LPG market opens up to the United States”.

“In our endeavour to provide secure affordable supplies of LPG to the people of India, we have been diversifying our LPG sourcing,” the minister said.

“In a significant development, Indian PSU oil companies have successfully concluded a 1-year-deal for imports of around 2.2 MTPA LPG, close to 10 per cent of our annual imports – for the contract year 2026, to be sourced from the US Gulf Coast – the first structured contract of US LPG for the Indian market,” Puri informed.

This purchase is based on using Mount Belvieu as the benchmark for LPG purchases and “a team of our officials from Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCl had visited the US and engaged in discussions with major US producers over the last few months, which have been concluded now”.

Under the leadership of PM Modi, PSU oil companies have been providing LPG at the lowest global prices to all our mothers and sisters.

“Even as global prices soared by over 60 per cent last year, PM Modi ensured that our Ujjwala consumers continued to receive LPG cylinder at just Rs 500-550 whereas the actual cost of the cylinder was over Rs 1,100,” said the minister,

The Government of India incurred the cost of over Rs 40,000 crore last year “in order to ensure our mothers and sisters did not feel the burden of rising international LPG prices”, he mentioned.

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