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RBI to take up repo rate hikes from April with a cumulative rise of 150bps in FY23

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The focus of the Union Budget 2022 is likely to be on investment-driven growth with a focus on infrastructure investment to generate multiplier effects to spur economic growth.

Morgan Stanley said in a report the focus will be on raising additional resources through strategic divestment and asset monetisation. Indeed, the overall focus of the government should be to utilise all revenue levers effectively (tax compliance to improve tax to GDP, strategic asset sales) to sustainably improve the health of the public sector balance sheet.

Fiscal data on a tracking basis has surprised positively, even as spending is tracking above budgeted levels due to the better-than- expected trend in tax collections. However, divestments have remained weak, and, as such, the eventual timing of the LIC IPO can have a bearing on the final fiscal deficit for F2022.

If the IPO goes through in Q4F22, as asserted by government officials, we opine the fiscal deficit would come in lower by 40bps (at 6.4 per cent of GDP) than the budgeted estimate at 6.8 per cent of GDP. If the IPO fails to materialise, we anticipate the fiscal deficit target would be in line with the government target of 6.8 per cent of GDP. In F2023, we anticipate slow-paced fiscal consolidation leading to a fiscal deficit of 6 per cent of GDP, driven by continued tax buoyancy, reduction in pandemic-related revenue spending and a pickup in divestment proceeds, Morgan Stanley said.

We expect the RBI to embark on policy normalisation with a 15-20bps hike in the reverse repo rate to normalise the policy rate corridor. We anticipate the impact on growth from the third-wave-led disruptions to be short-lived and concentrated primarily on the contact-intensive services sector. Moreover, the impact doesn’t weigh on the future growth trajectory,and thus does not warrant a further delay in policy normalisation, in our view.

Further, we expect inflation to rise on a YoY basis till March-22,and to only moderate from 2Q22, helped by sequential easing in global commodity prices. Following the adjustment in reverse repo rates, we expect the RBI to take up repo rate hikes, which in our base case starts from the April meeting, with a cumulative rise of 150bps in fiscal 2023.

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Apple ships record 4.9 million iPhones to India in Q3 2025

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New Delhi, Oct 23: Riding high on the success of its new iPhone 17 series and festive season demand, Apple Inc recorded its highest-ever quarterly shipments to India, sending 4.9 million smartphones to the country during the July–September quarter of 2025 (Q3 CY25), according to industry estimates.

According to research firm Omdia, this marks a 47 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth and represents Apple’s strongest performance in the Indian market to date.

What’s more, India accounted for 9 per cent of Apple’s total global iPhone shipments in the quarter — the highest share ever for the country — underscoring India’s growing importance in the company’s global strategy.

The launch of the iPhone 17 series on September 9 played a key role in driving record sales.

The new lineup features major camera upgrades, including a 48MP Fusion Main camera and a 48MP Fusion Ultra-Wide lens, alongside a 6.3-inch Super Retina XDR display with ProMotion.

The device also comes with the new A19 chip for enhanced performance and Ceramic Shield 2 technology, offering three times better scratch resistance and reduced glare.

Apple is expected to post its highest-ever festive quarter in India this year, with analysts forecasting a 28 per cent increase in sales compared to last year, driven by the early popularity of the iPhone 17 series.

This milestone comes on the heels of another major achievement for the Cupertino-based company — record iPhone exports from India.

In the April–September period of the current financial year, Apple shipped iPhones worth about $10 billion (over Rs 88,500 crore), marking a 75 per cent growth compared to the same period last year, according to industry estimates.

The success reflects the strong push of the government’s ‘Make in India’ and production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, which have encouraged Apple to expand its manufacturing base in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

A majority of the iPhones produced in India this year — nearly 78 per cent — were exported to the US, up from 53 per cent a year earlier.

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Sensex surges 700 points, Nifty reclaims 26,000 as IT stocks lead market rally

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Mumbai, Oct 23: The Indian stock markets opened on a strong note on Thursday, even as global cues remained mixed.

The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, started the session with solid gains, driven largely by strength in IT stocks.

The Sensex opened 727.81 points higher at 85,154.15, while the Nifty reclaimed the 26,000 mark, opening 188.6 points higher at 26,057.20.

“For now, upside objective is set at 26186, with 26800 appearing as an optimistic objective,” market experts said.

“Meanwhile, downside marker is placed at 25780, but an outright reversal is not expected today,” they added.

Among the top performers on the BSE were Infosys, HCLTech, and Tech Mahindra, which saw healthy buying interest.

On the other hand, Bajaj Finserv, Maruti, and Power Grid were among the major laggards.

Similar trends were seen on the NSE, where Infosys, HCLTech, and Tech Mahindra led the gains, while IndiGo, Eicher Motors, and Sun Pharma Life witnessed selling pressure.

Broader market indices also traded higher, with the Nifty SmallCap 100 rising 0.33 per cent and the Nifty MidCap 100 climbing 0.44 per cent.

Sector-wise, the Nifty IT index emerged as the top gainer, up 1.84 per cent, while the Nifty Realty index was the only one in the red, slipping 0.08 per cent.

Analysts said that investors showed renewed optimism in the market, with strong buying seen in technology shares supporting the early trade momentum.

Reports of an imminent trade deal between India and the US is doing the rounds in market circles and the market reaction through Nifty implied open confirms this, experts said.

“Comments from President Donald Trump and responses from Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicate an early trade deal. The expected deal involves some concessions from both sides,” they added.

Meanwhile, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended their buying streak for the fifth consecutive session on October 21, as they bought equities worth Rs 96 crore.

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Air India’s US-bound flight returns to Mumbai due to technical snag

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Mumbai, Oct 22: An Air India flight scheduled from Mumbai to Newark in the United States had to return after take-off, as the crew identified a suspected technical snag, according to a statement issued by the airline on Wednesday.

“The crew of flight AI191 operating from Mumbai to Newark on 22 October, made a precautionary air-return to Mumbai due to a suspected technical issue. The flight landed safely back in Mumbai, and the aircraft is undergoing necessary inspections,” according to an Air India statement.

The total number of passengers on board, along with the time at which the airline departed and returned, was not available in the preliminary statement. As per the usual schedule, the AI1191 flight departs at 01:10 hours (IST) from Mumbai and reaches Newark at 07:55 hours (EDT).

Due to the flight’s cancellation, the return flight from Newark to Mumbai — numbered AI144 — was also cancelled.

The incident comes close on the heels of Delhi-bound Air India plane running into a technical snag at the Milan airport last Friday, stranding over 250 passengers at the foreign airport just ahead of Diwali.

The airline’s Boeing 787 Dreamliner (VT-ANN) had encountered a technical issue upon landing in Milan, preventing the aircraft from operating the return journey to Delhi.

Air India then scheduled an additional flight from Milan to Delhi on Oct 19 to bring back home 256 passengers who were stranded in Milan since, October 17.

The airline claimed it had extended all immediate assistance to affected passengers, including hotel accommodation and meals. Full refunds or complimentary rescheduling were also offered as per passenger preference.

A similar incident occurred on August 16 this year, when an Air India flight on the same route was cancelled due to a technical issue that was notices during pushback.

According to Air India, a maintenance task was identified just as the aircraft was preparing for departure. The subsequent delay caused the operating crew to exceed mandatory flight duty time limitation norms, making it unsafe and impermissible for them to continue.

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