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RBI raises repo rate by 50 bps, sees inflation over tolerance level till Q3FY23

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The Reserve Bank of India has raised the repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Wednesday, adding that inflation was likely to remain above the upper tolerance level for three quarters of this financial year.

He was speaking at a press conference after the end of the three-day monetary policy review meeting that started on Monday.

Though the RBI raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting was a “no brainer”, as said by its Governor Shaktikanta Das in a recent interview, investors, however, awaited the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.

In early May, the RBI, in a surprise off-cycle meeting, hiked the repo rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent, amidst rising inflation concerns in the economy. Repo rate is the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks.

In the same off-cycle meeting, case reserve ratio was hiked by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent essentially to squeeze out some liquidity from the system.

India’s retail inflation accelerated to 7.79 per cent in April, remaining above the tolerance limit of the central bank RBI for a fourth month in a row. It is highly likely that the retail inflation will remain above 6 per cent for another few months.

Das on Wednesday categorically said India’s retail inflation is likely to stay above the tolerance level till third quarter of FY23 before moderating below 6 per cent.

For FY23, RBI sees overall inflation at 6.7 per cent, with 7.5 per cent in Q1, 7.4 per cent in Q2, 6.2 per cent in Q3, and 5.8 per cent in Q4, taking into consideration the normal monsoon and average crude oil basket price of $105 per barrel.

Notably, wholesale inflation in the country has been in double digit for over a year now.

Coming to growth, India’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, will be 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 in Q3, and 4.0 in Q4, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.

Business

Sensex, Nifty open marginally down amid negative global cues

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Mumbai, Nov 21: Indian benchmark indices opened in mild red zone on Friday, amid negative global cues and fading investor hopes of a US Fed rate cut in December.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex declined 80 points, or 0.09 per cent at 85,551 and Nifty dipped 15 points, or 0.05 per cent to 25,860.

The broadcap indices performed in line with the benchmarks, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.30 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 dipped 0.34 per cent.

TCS, Asian Paints and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Hindalco, Shriram Finance, Tata Steel and ICICI Bank.

All the sectoral indices on NSE were trading in red except Nifty Auto (up 0.30 per cent). Nifty Metal down 0.79 per cent was the biggest loser.

Analysts said that India will gain if the AI trade slows down and capital begins to shift into non-AI stocks in emerging markets.

All of the major Asia-Pacific markets fell in early trading sessions after US AI and tech stocks shed value and investors lost hopes of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The volatility of the market has increased evident by Nasdaq, the barometer of AI trading, ending the day down 2.15 per cent, crashing 4.4 per cent from the intraday peak.

“This type of market movement indicates that there will be more volatility in the future. AI stock prices may see fresh buying at lower valuations. We will need to wait and observe the course of this unstable period,” an analyst said.

The US markets ended in the red zone overnight, as Nasdaq slipped 2.16 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56 per cent, and the Dow declined 0.84 per cent.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index dipped 1.71 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 2.52 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei dipped 2.31 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.17 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.94 per cent.

On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 284 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 824 crore.

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Indian city gas distribution firms’ operating profit to rise 8-12 pc this fiscal

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New Delhi, Nov 20: City gas distribution (CGD) companies in India are projected to clock an operating profit of Rs 7.2–7.5 per standard cubic metre (scm) this fiscal — up 8-12 per cent compared with the second half of last fiscal when margins dropped because of a sudden and steep decline in gas allocation under the administered price mechanism (APM) for the compressed natural gas (CNG) segment, a report said on Thursday.

Consequently, distributors had to take recourse to the spot gas market for supply, which exerted upward pressure on cost. The companies have, thereafter, transitioned to contracted supplies, which is expected to burnish margins.

“Healthy earnings will keep leverage in check despite the proposed capital expenditure (capex) by companies. Our assessment of seven CGD companies, with 70 per cent share of total sales volume last fiscal, indicates as much,” Crisil Ratings said in its report.

CGD companies get gas on priority at lower prices under the APM from legacy gas fields to serve the domestic CNG and piped natural gas-domestic (PNG-D) segments.

Beyond APM, they procure high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) gas and imported regasified liquefied natural gas (R-LNG) under contracted and spot purchase mechanisms.

According to the report, in the second half of the last fiscal, APM gas allocated to the CNG segment was reduced to less than 40 per cent of the total CNG requirement, compared with 70 per cent in the first half of the last fiscal.

This led to a substantial increase in gas procurement costs as companies relied on spot purchases, which were 80-100 per cent more expensive than those under APM prices, to protect against supply disruptions.

As a result, spot purchases by volume rose to more than 15 per cent of total supplies from 5 per cent in the first half of the last fiscal.

“Against the 30 per cent reduction in APM allocation for the CNG segment, CGD companies got 15-20 per cent long-term allocations from domestic new well gas, mainly towards the end of last fiscal or early this fiscal. For the balance, they have signed additional medium- and long-term contracts, mainly for HPHT gas and R-LNG,” said Ankit Hakhu, Director, Crisil Ratings.

This will not only improve gas security but also reduce exposure to the spot market, where prices are 25-30 per cent higher on average, he added.

The report noted that realisations are steady this fiscal, following some increase in the second half of last fiscal when companies implemented price hikes to pass on increased costs to consumers, albeit partially and gradually.

However, some of the benefits of reduced gas procurement costs in the current fiscal year will be offset by an increase in other operating costs. These costs will rise as players continue to incur capex to expand gas infrastructure in existing and new geographical areas (GAs) to support volume growth.

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Groww shares drop over 9 pc, slip below Rs 1 lakh crore market cap

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Mumbai, Nov 20: Groww’s share price continued to fall for the second day in a row on Thursday as investors booked profits after the stock’s strong rally last week.

The shares slipped as much as 9 per cent during early trade, touching an intra-day low of Rs 154.10 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

This is a 9.29 per cent drop from the previous day’s close.

During early trade, the market value of Billionbrains Garage Ventures — Groww’s parent company — fell to Rs 97,431.70 crore, slipping below the Rs 1 lakh crore mark.

The decline follows Wednesday’s sharp fall, when the stock hit the 10 per cent lower circuit on both the BSE and NSE, ending a five-day winning streak.

It closed at Rs 169.94 on the BSE and Rs 169.89 on the NSE in the previous trading session.

On Wednesday, the exchanges also revised Groww’s price band from 20 per cent to 10 per cent, limiting how much the stock can move in a single session.

The next key event for the stock is on Friday, November 21, when the company will announce its quarterly results — its first earnings report since listing last week.

Earlier, in a filing to the stock exchanges, Groww said its Board of Directors will meet on Friday, November 21, 2025, to consider and approve the unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025.

Another important trigger is expected on December 10, when the one-month lock-in period for shareholders ends.

Groww, founded in 2016, is currently India’s largest stockbroker with more than 12.6 million active clients and a market share of over 26 percent as of June 2025.

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