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RBI likely to get quite perturbed with inflation above 6% in three quarters

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With inflation likely to exceed 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters, especially if energy prices remain elevated, the RBI is likely to get quite perturbed, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report.

With higher food price pressure in the near term (summer effect, international prices, higher transport cost, supply chains) and persistent input cost pressure in the non-food segment, it now sees inflation crossing 6 per cent in FY23.

The March ’22 print strengthens rate hike expectations in June ’22. We maintain that FY23 could see a rate hike of up to 100bps. The terminal rate may go a tad higher from 5.25 per cent, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral, the report said.

March ’22 inflation surged to near 7 per cent, reflecting a broad-based increase in food and non-food inflation. Perishable food items seem to have been hurt by higher transportation and fuel costs. We are unlikely to see any relief in food prices in the near term, as supply-chain price pressure and summer months further weigh in, the report added.

Core inflation at 6.6 per cent depicted the persistence of input cost pressure, which has started to percolate to output prices.

The Mar’22 inflation print exceeded the RBI’s target range materially, and the next two quarters are also likely to exceed 6 per cent, which could pressure the RBI to act sooner than later. We are tracking April ’22 inflation at 7.2 per cent, albeit peaking, assuming pump prices stabilize ahead. With food prices looking high in the near term (summer effect, international prices, higher transport cost, supply chains) and persistent input cost pressure in the non-food segment, we now see inflation crossing 6 per cent in FY23.

The RBI reckoned that inflation has again taken precedence over growth in its reaction function. With inflation realities worsening, June hike is likely (with or without stout and formal stance change). FY23 could see rates go up by 100bps. The terminal rate may be a tad higher than 5.25 per cent, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral.

Business

Gold, silver trade lower amid weak global cues

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New Delhi, June 29: Gold and silver prices traded lower on Monday, with the yellow metal slipping below the Rs 1.44 lakh mark and the white metal hovering near Rs 2.23 lakh amid weak global cues.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) opened at Rs 1,44,180 per 10 grams, marginally higher than the previous close of Rs 1,44,162. However, selling pressure emerged later.

At around 10 am, the yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,43,470, down Rs 692 or 0.48 per cent. So far in the session, it has touched an intraday high of Rs 1,44,180 per 10 grams — its opening price — and a low of Rs 1,43,454, down 0.49 per cent or Rs 708.

On the other hand, silver futures (September) traded largely flat in early deals.

The white metal opened at Rs 2,23,912 per kg against the previous close of Rs 2,23,472. At the last count, it was trading at Rs 2,23,174 per kg, down Rs 298 or 0.13 per cent.

So far during the session, silver has touched a high of Rs 2,24,248 per kg and a low of Rs 2,22,641, down 0.37 per cent or Rs 831.

Similarly, in the international market, precious metals were trading lower, with COMEX gold down 0.41 per cent at $4,078 per ounce, while COMEX silver declined more than 1 per cent to $58.52 per ounce.

According to commodity market experts, gold remained under pressure as investors turned cautious amid renewed geopolitical tensions and expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. A stronger US dollar and elevated US Treasury yields also weighed on bullion prices.

“Safe-haven demand received only limited support after fresh exchanges between the US and Iran over the weekend strained the fragile ceasefire. While the recent US-Iran peace framework had eased concerns over energy-driven inflation by pulling crude oil prices lower, renewed attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have revived uncertainty over the region,” the analysts said.

Investors will now closely track key US economic data, including consumer confidence, ADP employment, jobless claims and non-farm payrolls, for further cues on the Fed’s policy outlook and the direction of the US dollar, they added.

In the currency market, the Indian rupee opened five paise higher at 94.35 against the US dollar on Monday, compared with its previous close of 94.40.

Meanwhile, international benchmark Brent crude rose about 1 per cent to $72.78 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained more than 2 per cent to nearly $71 per barrel.

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India-UK CETA to deepen collaboration across trade, investment, innovation: Piyush Goyal

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London/New Delhi, June 28: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, in his meeting with the diaspora here, highlighted the opportunities emerging from the India-UK CETA, effective from July 15, which will further deepen collaboration across trade, investment, and innovation, contributing to shared prosperity for both nations.

The minister had an engaging evening interacting with the Indian diaspora and business community in London.

“Spoke about the vital role of the diaspora as a living bridge between India and the United Kingdom, strengthening economic, cultural, and people-to-people ties,” Goyal posted on X.

Goyal also interacted with members of the ICAI UK Chapter and emphasised the vital role of the CA community in strengthening the economic ties between India and the UK.

“Also, highlighted how the India-UK CETA will create new avenues for professionals. Urged them to leverage their skills, knowledge and professional expertise to maximise the opportunities arising from the agreement and contribute to the shared growth of both nations,” said the minister.

He also had an insightful discussion with Professor Siddartha Khastgir, Head of Safe Autonomy at Warwick Manufacturing Group (WMG), University of Warwick, on deepening industry-academia collaboration and advancing research-driven innovation.

“A vibrant innovation ecosystem is instrumental in nurturing breakthrough ideas, building globally competitive industries, and shaping the technologies of the future for India and the world,” said Goyal.

In a productive meeting with Dr Vishwajeet Rana, Group CEO of GEDU Global Education, Goyal discussed avenues to further strengthen India-UK collaboration in higher education, skills and innovation.

“Also, exchanged views on leveraging the India-UK CETA to foster stronger industry-academia partnerships and create new opportunities for shared growth between both countries,” he added.

Earlier, Goyal urged Indian companies to deepen engagement with their UK counterparts and translate opportunities under the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) into sustained business growth.

Addressing the ‘India-UK: Partners in Progress Business Plenary’ in London, Goyal said the landmark trade pact offers significant opportunities to strengthen bilateral trade, investment, technology partnerships, innovation and resilient supply chains.

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Business

India-US trade deal, oil prices and geopolitical tensions to guide D-Street next week

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Mumbai, June 28: After ending the holiday-shortened week on a positive note, Dalal Street is likely to take cues from progress in the proposed India-US trade agreement, developments in the Middle East conflict, crude oil prices and foreign investor activity in the coming week.

Lower oil prices and improving risk sentiment helped benchmark indices post modest gains during the last week.

For the week, the Sensex advanced 0.39 per cent to close at 77,100.47, while the Nifty gained 0.18 per cent to settle at 24,056.

A sharp decline in crude oil prices emerged as the biggest positive trigger for the market. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal and tensions in West Asia showing signs of easing, Brent crude prices retreated to near pre-conflict levels.

The decline in oil prices reduced concerns over imported inflation, the current account deficit and rising input costs for Indian companies.

Investor sentiment also improved amid growing expectations of an India-US trade agreement. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India and the United States are close to concluding a trade deal following discussions with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Market participants view the proposed agreement as an important step toward strengthening bilateral economic ties and boosting trade and investment flows.

At the same time, geopolitical developments in West Asia continued to remain on investors’ radar. The United States carried out strikes on Iran after a drone attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, an incident that US President Donald Trump described as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Earlier, a vessel near the coast of Oman was reportedly struck by a projectile, highlighting continuing tensions in the region despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Crude oil prices fell more than 3 per cent on Friday and were headed for sharp weekly losses as concerns over supply disruptions eased. The continued movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz helped calm markets and reduced fears of a major supply shock.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee strengthened during the week, supported by lower crude oil prices and signs of improving foreign portfolio inflows. However, investors remained cautious over the possibility of further interest rate actions by the US Federal Reserve, which could influence global capital flows.

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