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RBI likely to get quite perturbed with inflation above 6% in three quarters

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With inflation likely to exceed 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters, especially if energy prices remain elevated, the RBI is likely to get quite perturbed, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report.

With higher food price pressure in the near term (summer effect, international prices, higher transport cost, supply chains) and persistent input cost pressure in the non-food segment, it now sees inflation crossing 6 per cent in FY23.

The March ’22 print strengthens rate hike expectations in June ’22. We maintain that FY23 could see a rate hike of up to 100bps. The terminal rate may go a tad higher from 5.25 per cent, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral, the report said.

March ’22 inflation surged to near 7 per cent, reflecting a broad-based increase in food and non-food inflation. Perishable food items seem to have been hurt by higher transportation and fuel costs. We are unlikely to see any relief in food prices in the near term, as supply-chain price pressure and summer months further weigh in, the report added.

Core inflation at 6.6 per cent depicted the persistence of input cost pressure, which has started to percolate to output prices.

The Mar’22 inflation print exceeded the RBI’s target range materially, and the next two quarters are also likely to exceed 6 per cent, which could pressure the RBI to act sooner than later. We are tracking April ’22 inflation at 7.2 per cent, albeit peaking, assuming pump prices stabilize ahead. With food prices looking high in the near term (summer effect, international prices, higher transport cost, supply chains) and persistent input cost pressure in the non-food segment, we now see inflation crossing 6 per cent in FY23.

The RBI reckoned that inflation has again taken precedence over growth in its reaction function. With inflation realities worsening, June hike is likely (with or without stout and formal stance change). FY23 could see rates go up by 100bps. The terminal rate may be a tad higher than 5.25 per cent, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral.

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Sensex, Nifty extend gains on buying in heavyweights

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Mumbai, Oct 7: Indian stock markets continued their upward trend on Tuesday, supported by buying in major stocks such as ICICI Bank, ITC and more.

However, profit booking in select banking stocks limited the overall gains during the early trading hours.

The Sensex, which rose more than 100 points in early trade, was trading at 81,843, up 52 points or 0.06 per cent.

The Nifty also gained 34 points or 0.14 per cent to reach 25,112 after hitting an intra-day high of 25,140.

Among the top gainers on the Sensex were Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Ultratech Cement, NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv, and BEL, which rose between 0.3 per cent and 1.6 per cent.

On the other hand, Trent, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, TCS, SBI, Kotak Bank, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, and Infosys were among the major losers, slipping up to 2.7 per cent.

In the broader market, the Nifty MidCap index gained 0.08 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index rose 0.41 per cent — showing continued interest from investors in smaller companies.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal and Nifty IT were the top performers, each gaining 0.4 per cent.

The Nifty PSU Bank index was the worst hit, falling 0.3 per cent due to profit booking in public sector lenders.

Analysts said that overall market sentiment remains positive, though some volatility may persist due to profit-taking at higher levels.

“The ongoing mild rally in the market has the potential to gain momentum. The FII selling in India is slowly declining since the sharp appreciation in other markets has pushed up their valuations and the valuation differential between India and other markets has come down,” analysts said.

“Since there is huge short position in the market any positive news can trigger short-covering, further aiding the rally,” they added.

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PM Modi to inaugurate India Mobile Congress 2025 on October 8

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New Delhi, Oct 6: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the India Mobile Congress (IMC) 2025, Asia’s premier telecom and technology event, on October 8 in the national capital, Ministry of Communications said on Monday.

The four-day mega event, themed “Innovate to Transform,” will run till October 11 and is expected to showcase India’s growing leadership in the global digital and telecom space.

Union Minister for Communications Jyotiraditya M. Scindia visited the IMC 2025 venue to review the final preparations ahead of the Prime Minister’s inauguration.

Scindia also travelled to the venue and back via the Airport Metro, symbolising India’s push for modern and sustainable urban transport.

During his visit, the minister toured the exhibition area, interacted with participating startups and exhibitors, and chaired review meetings with senior officials from the Department of Telecommunications (DoT), the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), and other partner agencies.

Speaking to the media, Scindia said that IMC 2025 would mark a new era in global connectivity, where technologies like 5G, 6G, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), the Internet of Things (IoT), and satellite communications would come together to shape the future.

He emphasised that the event reflects Prime Minister Modi’s vision of a self-reliant and innovative India that connects not only within but also with the world.

IMC 2025 is expected to attract more than 1.5 lakh visitors, 7,000 delegates from over 150 countries, and 400 exhibitors spread across 4.5 lakh square feet.

The event will also feature over 1,600 technology demonstrations and 100 sessions with more than 800 speakers discussing the latest developments in telecom and digital innovation.

Highlighting the scale of the event, Scindia said that IMC has grown from being a national platform to becoming a global technology congress that represents India’s digital leadership.

He added that the 2025 edition will include six major global summits — covering 6G research, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, satellite communications, startups, and the Global Startup World Cup — India Edition.

The minister also underlined India’s achievements in the telecom sector, noting that the country now ranks among the world’s top three digital economies with 1.2 billion mobile subscribers, 970 million internet users, and the fastest-ever 5G rollout completed in just 22 months.

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Sensex rises 583 points, Nifty tops 25,000 as IT and banking stocks lead rally

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Mumbai, Oct 6: The Indian stock markets continued their winning streak for the third straight session on Monday, driven by strong buying in the IT and banking shares.

The benchmark Sensex jumped 582.95 points, or 0.72 per cent, to close at 81,790.12, while the Nifty rose 183.4 points, or 0.74 per cent, to end the day at 25,077.

“From a technical perspective, Nifty has successfully broken above the key psychological and technical resistance level of 25,000, turning the structure decisively positive,” analysts said.

“Any dip toward the 25,000 zone is expected to act as a strong support level, with immediate resistance seen at 25,200 and 25,500,” they added.

The Bank Nifty also delivered a stellar performance, opening with a gap-up and maintaining its upward trajectory through the session.

The index surged past 56,100, hitting an intra-day high of 56,164, with next resistance levels seen at 56,300–56,500, and support placed around 55,821–55,500, experts stated.

Broader markets also joined the rally, with the Nifty Midcap 100 gaining 0.89 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 inching up 0.28 per cent.

In the Sensex pack, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Eternal, Axis Bank, and Bajaj Finance were the top performers, climbing as much as 3 per cent.

Meanwhile, Trent, Tata Steel, Power Grid, and Titan ended the session with losses. Among sectors, IT stocks led the gains as the Nifty IT index surged 2.28 per cent.

The Nifty Private Bank, Financial Services, and Healthcare indices also closed in positive territory.

On the other hand, Metal, FMCG, and Media shares came under pressure, slipping up to 1 per cent.

Market experts said the upbeat sentiment in IT stocks and strong institutional buying supported the overall market momentum.

“The domestic equity market ended the session on a positive note, led by gains in the financial services and IT sectors, ahead of the Q2 results,” they said.

“The banking index outperformed, bolstered by strong quarterly updates announced by large scheduled banks and attractive valuations, while hospital stocks surged following the revision of CGHS rates,” market experts added.

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