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RBI likely to get quite perturbed with inflation above 6% in three quarters

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With inflation likely to exceed 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters, especially if energy prices remain elevated, the RBI is likely to get quite perturbed, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report.

With higher food price pressure in the near term (summer effect, international prices, higher transport cost, supply chains) and persistent input cost pressure in the non-food segment, it now sees inflation crossing 6 per cent in FY23.

The March ’22 print strengthens rate hike expectations in June ’22. We maintain that FY23 could see a rate hike of up to 100bps. The terminal rate may go a tad higher from 5.25 per cent, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral, the report said.

March ’22 inflation surged to near 7 per cent, reflecting a broad-based increase in food and non-food inflation. Perishable food items seem to have been hurt by higher transportation and fuel costs. We are unlikely to see any relief in food prices in the near term, as supply-chain price pressure and summer months further weigh in, the report added.

Core inflation at 6.6 per cent depicted the persistence of input cost pressure, which has started to percolate to output prices.

The Mar’22 inflation print exceeded the RBI’s target range materially, and the next two quarters are also likely to exceed 6 per cent, which could pressure the RBI to act sooner than later. We are tracking April ’22 inflation at 7.2 per cent, albeit peaking, assuming pump prices stabilize ahead. With food prices looking high in the near term (summer effect, international prices, higher transport cost, supply chains) and persistent input cost pressure in the non-food segment, we now see inflation crossing 6 per cent in FY23.

The RBI reckoned that inflation has again taken precedence over growth in its reaction function. With inflation realities worsening, June hike is likely (with or without stout and formal stance change). FY23 could see rates go up by 100bps. The terminal rate may be a tad higher than 5.25 per cent, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral.

National

Ravindra Chavan, Trusted Lieutenant Of Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis, Appointed BJP State Unit President

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Mumbai: Ravindra Chavan, known as a trusted lieutenant of Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, will take over as BJP’s state unit president on Tuesday.

The incumbent, Revenue Minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule, will hand over charge at a party conclave in Mumbai. The mantle is being handed to Chavan, whose grassroots planning ensured BJP’s impressive electoral performance in Thane and the Konkan belt, with an eye on the coming elections to the local bodies, according to party sources.

Chavan was the only candidate who filed his nomination papers on Monday at BJP state headquarters in the presence of Fadnavis, Bawankule and the party’s Maharashtra in-charge Arun Singh. Union minister Kiren Rijiju was present as the central observer.

Chavan represents Dombivali for the fourth term in the Assembly. He was a member of the Fadnavis cabinet between 2014 and 2019 and the Eknath Shinde-led government from 2022 to 2024. There was speculation of his elevation to the key party post started when he was denied a Cabinet berth after last year’s Assembly elections. He has been officiating as the working president of the state unit for the last few months.

The BJP is eyeing maximum number of municipal bodies in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) comprising 8 municipal corporations. With the elevation of Chavan, known for his aggressive politics, BJP seems to be sending out a message to deputy CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, which is likely to ask for lion’s share of seats for the civic polls. As an experienced leader, Chavan will shoulder his responsibilities with vigour and strength, Fadnavis asserted.

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National

Hyderabad Chemical Factory Blast: Death Toll Rises To 32 After 15 Succumb Overnight

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Hyderabad: The death toll in the explosion in a pharmaceutical unit at Pashamylaram near Hyderabad rose sharply to 32 on Tuesday, with about 15 injured succumbing at hospitals overnight.

The death toll in the worst industrial disaster in Telangana may go up further as the rescue workers continued searching for the bodies in the debris of a three-storey building, which collapsed under the impact of the blast.

A massive explosion had rocked Sigachi Industries Limited’s pharmaceutical factory at Pashamylaram industrial area in Sangareddy district, about 50 km from Hyderabad, on Monday morning.

The explosion in the Microcrystalline Cellulose (MCC) drying unit also left 35 workers injured. The condition of 11 of them is stated to be critical.

According to officials, 27 workers were still missing. They were feared trapped under the debris.

Personnel of the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), Hyderabad Disaster Response and Asset Protection Agency (HYDRAA), Revenue and police continued clearing debris.

The majority of the victims were migrant workers from states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.

As many as 108 workers were at the factory at the time of the blast, which could be heard about five km away. The explosion triggered a huge fire, and 15 fire engines were used to douse the flames.

According to eye-witnesses, such was the impact of the explosion that workers were tossed in the air and fell several meters away.

As the bodies of some victims were blown to pieces or charred beyond recognition, the authorities were conducting DNA tests to establish their identity.

Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy will be visiting the accident site on Tuesday. He will also call on the injured at a government hospital.

Health Minister Damodar Raja Narasimha told media persons at the spot on Monday that the cause of the explosion was not yet known. The company, which is 40-45 years old, manufactures Microcrystalline Cellulose, he said.

Labour Minister G. Vivek said prima facie it was not a reactor blast. Some problem in the air dryer system is believed to have resulted in the explosion and fire.

The state government appointed a high-powered committee to probe the disaster and its underlying causes.

The committer comprises the Chief Secretary, Special Chief Secretary (Disaster Management), Principal Secretary (Labour), Principal Secretary (Health) and Additional DGP (Fire Services).

According to the Chief Minister’s Office, the panel would also make recommendations to prevent the recurrence of such accidents.

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National

Maha govt tables bill to set up Gadchiroli district mining authority

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Mumbai, June 30: The Maharashtra government on Monday tabled the bill for the establishment of the 16-member Gadchiroli District Mining Authority for the coordination and supervision of orderly and rapid development of the mineral-bearing area and execution of plans and projects.

The authority will be headed by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who is also the Gadchiroli district guardian minister. The government’s move is important as it hopes to finish the Left Wing Extremism (LWE) and develop Gadchiroli as the next steel city of India.

The district is endowed with abundant minerals such as iron ore, hematite, magnetite, BHQ, limestone, Dolomites and coal, which are used as raw materials for various manufacturing industries.

Further, Gadchiroli district, which is rich in iron ore, has the potential to be developed as a hub for mineral-based industries, especially the steel industry, said the bill.

“Currently, the absence of an integrated administrative mechanism hampers the swift execution of the mining project. Hence a need was felt for the establishment of a unified authority comprising of certain ministers and secretaries of the relevant departments under the chairmanship of the Chief Minister to expedite mining approvals and foster the growth of mineral based industries such as steel and cement, thereby accelerating the holistic development of the Gadchiroli district and consequently of the state,” said the bill.

It pointed out that the authority will act as a catalyst in speeding up the process of operationalisation of approved mining leases, and will also generate employment in the district and boost the revenue of the state.

According to the bill, the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957, and rules framed thereunder govern the development and regulation of mines and minerals. The major mineral blocks are auctioned following the Mineral (Auction) Rules, 2015. The mining concession holder is required to obtain various clearances and no-objection certificates from various departments and district officers of the government and local authorities within the timelines prescribed in the rules.

If the bidder fails to meet the prescribed timeline, the alloyed major mineral blocks will have to be auctioned again.

The Chief Minister last week at the industry conference said, “Gadchiroli 10 years ago was zero industrial area, nobody thought that it would become an Industrial magnet. Due to a slew of policies, Gadchiroli is becoming a new steel city of India to produce one-third of India’s steel that will change the entire outlook of the district.”

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