Business
Omicron Blow: Rupee expected to weaken on inflation, infection woes
Likely surge in bond yields along with rising Covid cases are expected to weaken the Indian rupee during the upcoming week.
Besides, persistently high energy costs could subdue the rupee bulls.
However, re-commencement of FIIs inflows will arrest any major fall in rupee’s value vis-a-vis the US dollar.
“Rising trade deficit as well as concerns over US Fed’s taper measures and rising yields can put pressure on rupee in coming year,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.
“Crude oil too can play spoil sport if it moves towards the 85 levels. Omicoron concerns too may dampen the sentiment.”
Last week, rupee was rangebound to close at 74.31 to a USD.
In that period, inflows from Reliance’s US dollar bond issuance kept rupee tethered near 74.30 despite the surge in dollar index and higher crude oil prices.
“Next week, surging bond yields, fears of higher covid19 infections, high energy costs and RBI’s intervention could spoil the party of rupee bulls,” said Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
“We expect the rupee to trade between 74.20 to 74.90 next week with a weakening bias.”
According to Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services: “Next week, on the domestic front, market participants will be keeping an eye on the inflation and industrial production number. An uptick in inflation could raise rate hike prospects by the RBI but at the same time a disappointing industrial production could dampen rate hike hope.
“From the US, focus will be on the Fed Chairman’s testimony, inflation and retail sales number. A hawkish statement from the Fed Chairman and better-than-expected retail sales number could extend gains for the greenback.”
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and CPI on January 12.
Business
Dubai Airport temporarily suspends all flights after drone hits fuel tank

New Delhi, March 16: Dubai Airport on Monday announced to temporarily suspend all flights as a precautionary safety measure, after a drone struck a fuel tank in the area.
“Flights at DXB (Dubai International Airport) are temporarily suspended as a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of all passengers and staff. Please contact your airlines for the latest flight updates. Further updates will be shared as they become available,” Dubai Airport said in a post on X.
The Dubai Civil Aviation Authority said travellers are advised to contact their respective airlines for the latest updates regarding their flights.
“Further updates will be announced through official channels as soon as they become available,” the Dubai Media Office wrote on X.
A fire broke out near Dubai International Airport on Monday after a drone struck a fuel tank, prompting a rapid response from emergency teams and the temporary suspension of flights. Authorities said Dubai Civil Defence crews were immediately deployed to tackle the blaze and that no injuries were reported as safety measures were activated across the vicinity.
Dubai Civil Defence crews were immediately deployed to tackle the blaze and that no injuries were reported as safety measures were activated across the vicinity.
Meanwhile, an Emirates flight bound for Dubai from Kochi returned to the airport here on Monday following a security incident reported from the destination airport.
“Flight EK533 departed Cochin International Airport (CIAL) at 04.30 am with 325 people on board. En route, the aircraft was directed to turn back due to the sudden closure of Dubai International Airport,” a CIAL spokesperson said.
Meanwhile, the UAE’s defence ministry has reported six deaths since the conflict began – four civilians and two military personnel. The soldiers died in a helicopter crash that was linked to a technical issue.
Business
India has tax buffer to avoid retail fuel price hike up to $110 a barrel: Report

New Delhi, March 15: India still has a meaningful tax buffer to absorb crude shocks, as excise duties of Rs 19.9 per litre on gasoline and Rs 15.8 per litre on diesel can be cut to protect retail prices until about $110 per barrel crude, a report said on Monday.
The report from Elara Capital said retail gasoline and diesel prices “could be fully protected through excise cuts until roughly $110/bbl, beyond which price hikes on diesel and gasoline would become inevitable”.
It estimated India can absorb a $40–45 crude shock via tax, adding that beyond $110/bbl, the burden would shift from the government to consumers, the report added.
For every $10 per barrel rise in crude, oil marketing companies’ diesel and gasoline margins would fall by Rs 6.3 per litre and LPG losses would rise by Rs 10.2 per kg.
The dynamics implies about Rs 328 billion in annual LPG under‑recovery, the report further said.
Gross refining margins of OMCs could rise by about $5/bbl for every $10/bbl crude move, but that would not fully offset their marketing and LPG losses, the report added.
At current Brent of $100/bbl, earnings could drop sharply around 90-190 per cent absent retail price hike, tax cut, or higher LPG subsidy, it said.
IOCL is better placed among OMCs due to higher refining share, but still vulnerable if crude stays high and retail price unchanged.
“The US-Iran war has changed the way the Indian Oil & Gas sector reacts to crude prices. Our sensitivity analysis at Brent crude oil price of $100, $125 and $150 shows ‘EBITDA swing range’ from a collapse of >400 per cent for OMCs to 10-15x expansion for standalone refiners,” the report explained.
Two-thirds of India’s LNG imports pass via Hormuz, adding a supply risk on the gas side, it noted.
The firm suggested that GAIL is better positioned among gas stocks, adding that is a relatively defensive play in the current environment, as only around 16 per cent of its marketing volumes is dependent on Hormuz-linked LNG, significantly lower than for most peers, limiting direct supply disruption risk.
Business
India headed to become world’s 3rd largest economy soon: Report

New Delhi, March 15: The Bharat Progress Report 2025-26, released by the NXT Foundation, highlights India’s rapid economic and technological growth over the year with the achievement of as many as 101 major milestones across digital public infrastructure, highways, railways, space, and renewable energy, taking the country towards the goal of becoming a developed nation.
The report underscores that India became the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan with a nominal GDP of about $4.18 trillion. Driven by a robust 8.2 per cent growth rate, India continues to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The country is now on course to soon become the third-largest economy in the world.
The report points to several high-frequency indicators that reflect the economic growth momentum. GST collections reached a record Rs 2.17 lakh crore in April 2025, while the country’s mutual fund industry surpassed Rs 80 lakh crore in assets under management. Besides, cumulative foreign direct investment crossed $1.15 trillion with the surge in investor confidence.
The development of India’s digital public infrastructure, which is being adopted by other countries as well, is reflected in the monthly UPI transactions surpassing Rs 21 lakh crore, while Aadhaar authentication crossed one billion. This enabled the expansion of financial inclusion in the country with a marked improvement in the delivery of government services to the poor in a transparent manner, directly into the accounts of beneficiaries.
On the infrastructure and connectivity front, the major achievements included the completion of the Chenab Rail Bridge, the world’s highest railway arch bridge, and the continued expansion of the Vande Bharat train network, which has enhanced high-speed rail connectivity. At the same time, the country expanded its national highways and logistics networks, helping improve supply chains and reduce transportation costs.
The report further highlights the country’s progress in science and advanced technology. The Space Docking Experiment (SpaDeX) conducted by the Indian Space Research Organisation successfully demonstrated in-orbit docking capability, saw India storming into the exclusive club of countries with this sophisticated technology. A major step was also undertaken during the year to develop domestic capacity in semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing as the country emerges as an alternative to China for becoming a world manufacturing hub for hi-tech electronic products.
India also made major advancements in achieving its renewable energy goals in the fight against climate change. The country’s share of non-fossil fuel power capacity reached the 50 per cent mark five years ahead of the 2030 target, on the back of strong growth in solar, hydel and wind energy. The report points out that the achievement of these milestones showcases the country’s evolution into a major driver of global growth in the new world order.
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