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Market Outlook: Resurgent Covid to counter Q3FY22 results positive effect on equities

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Upcoming Q3FY22 quarterly results season, along with release of macro-economic data points on industrial production and inflation, will determine the trajectory of key domestic equity indices next week.

However, global cues such as high crude oil prices, combined with the direction of foreign fund flows and the rising surge in domestic Covid cases will impact investors’ risk-taking appetite.

“A gradual pick up in volumes including from FIIs and DIIs along with stable domestic cues and release of advanced estimates of a rise in FY22 GDP by 9.2 per cent portend well for the near term,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC securities.

“17,944-17,655 could be the range for the Nifty in the near term.”

Besides, the Q3FY22 earnings result season will be kicked-off from next week.

As per schedule, IT majors such as Infosys, TCS and Wipro are expected to be the first bluechip firms to come out with their respective Q3FY22 earning results.

Furthermore, other companies like Mindtree, HCL Technologies and HDFC Bank are expected to announce their quarterly results in the coming week.

“Going ahead, next week, an expected strong earnings delivery by the IT sector would hold the key to drive markets,” Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research, Broking and Distribution for Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

“Global cues were positive on hopes of steady recovery as well as return of FIIs will be other major factors for the market.”

Furthermore, he said that going ahead, market trend might become volatile in the near term on account of potential risk from Omicron variant, upcoming budget and fragile global cues.

Apart from the Q3FY22 results, investors will look out for the upcoming macro-economic data points such as the IIP (Index of Industrial Production) and Balance of Trade figures.

“The coming week will be driven by the trends in the initial earnings outcome with the IT sector in focus,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

“It is also a busy week in terms of the release of macroeconomic data points like inflation data for December and manufacturing and industrial production data for November.”

The Central Statistics Office is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and CPI on January 12.

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Govt proposes new fuel economy norms for cars from April 1, 2027

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New Delhi, July 16: The Ministry of Power on Thursday circulated the draft Corporate Average Fuel Economy 2027 Norms (CAFE-III) for stakeholder consultation, which propose a fresh five-year fuel efficiency regime for passenger vehicles, beginning from April 1, 2027.

The draft norms apply to M1 category vehicles, a classification that covers passenger cars carrying up to eight people besides the driver, which includes all hatchbacks, sedans and SUVs sold for personal use. The category excludes commercial goods carriers and buses, according to an official statement.

The existing CAFE-II norms are likely to lapse on March 31, 2027. Compliance under CAFE-III will be assessed in two phases, the first covering three years and the second the remaining two, with fuel efficiency targets progressing to more stringent levels through each passing year.

The framework, overseen by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency under the Ministry of Power, aims to bring down average fleet emissions from current levels to a significantly lower threshold by FY32, according to earlier drafts reported in the media.

Compliance credits have been priced at Rs 2,500 each, rising by Rs 500 every year through the period, with unused credits expiring once the compliance period ends. Automakers that fail to meet targets could face penalties, though the detailed amounts have not been mentioned. Manufacturers selling fewer than 1,000 vehicles annually will remain exempt.

Industry has differed in its response to earlier versions of the draft. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has backed the proposal as balanced, while some carmakers have pushed for relief on small petrol cars and others have opposed differentiated treatment for that segment.

The ministry has invited suggestions from stakeholders and the public. Feedback can be sent to the Under Secretary, Energy Conservation, at the ministry’s New Delhi office, or can be emailed.

The last date for submissions is August 6, 2026. The draft norms will also be uploaded on the websites of the Ministry of Power and the Bureau of Energy Efficiency shortly, the statement said.

M1 vehicles are subject to stringent fuel efficiency and emission targets under Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) norms, which are regularly updated to reduce greenhouse gases.

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Govt hikes windfall duty on diesel, ATF exports

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New Delhi, July 16: The Centre has raised windfall taxes on exports of diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) while lowering the levy on petrol exports, as surging global oil prices driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict boosted refining margins, with the revised rates taking effect from Thursday.

According to a Finance Ministry notification, the export duty on diesel has been increased to Rs 15.5 per litre from Rs 8.5 per litre, while the levy on aviation turbine fuel has been raised to Rs 14.5 per litre from Rs 7.5 per litre.

At the same time, the government has reduced the export duty on petrol to Rs 2.5 per litre from Rs 4 per litre.

The revised rates came into effect from July 16, according to the notification.

The latest revision comes amid a sharp rise in global crude oil prices following an escalation in hostilities between the United States and Iran.

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday before easing slightly after US President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports, prompting Iran to launch retaliatory strikes on US infrastructure in the region.

Earlier this month, the government had revised the windfall tax on exports of petroleum products by raising the levy on petrol while reducing the duties on diesel and aviation turbine fuel.

The Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) on petrol exports was increased to Rs 4 per litre from Rs 1.5 per litre. At the same time, the export duty on diesel was reduced to Rs 8.5 per litre from Rs 14 per litre, while the levy on ATF exports was cut to Rs 7.5 per litre from Rs 12.5 per litre.

The government reviews windfall taxes on domestically produced crude oil and exports of petroleum products at regular intervals to align the levies with changes in international crude prices and refining margins.

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Sensex, Nifty trade higher led by consumer durables and IT stocks

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Mumbai, July 16: Indian equity benchmark indices traded higher in the morning session on Thursday despite mixed global cues.

Sensex jumped over 300 points or 0.42 per cent to hit an intraday high of 77,514.30 in early trade, while Nifty rose 88 points or 0.36 per cent to 24,167 amid buying in consumer durables, IT and auto stocks.

Nifty Consumer Durables index surged 1.63 per cent, followed by Nifty IT, which gained 1.38 per cent, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom, up 1.13 per cent, and Nifty Auto, which advanced 0.72 per cent.

On the downside, financial stocks remained under pressure, with the Nifty MidSmall Financial Services index falling 1 per cent and Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank declining 0.88 per cent. Nifty Realty, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices also traded lower.

SBI Life, HDFC Life, ONGC, Axis Bank, BEL, Max Healthcare Institute, Grasim Industries and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise were among the top laggards on the Nifty.

Analysts said the market is likely to trade in a narrow range with a positive bias as crude oil prices remain broadly steady and global markets stabilise.

Investors will closely track the June quarter earnings season, with banks and NBFCs expected to post healthy numbers backed by robust credit growth, according to them.

They further noted that automobile companies are also likely to remain in focus amid expectations of strong quarterly growth, supported by GST cuts and easier availability of finance, while profitable digital platform companies could continue to attract investor interest.

Meanwhile, Brent crude rose 0.71 per cent to around $85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.24 per cent to $80.59 a barrel.

Among Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei traded over 2 per cent lower and South Korea’s KOSPI declined around 6 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained about 2 per cent.

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