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Market Outlook: Resurgent Covid to counter Q3FY22 results positive effect on equities

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Upcoming Q3FY22 quarterly results season, along with release of macro-economic data points on industrial production and inflation, will determine the trajectory of key domestic equity indices next week.

However, global cues such as high crude oil prices, combined with the direction of foreign fund flows and the rising surge in domestic Covid cases will impact investors’ risk-taking appetite.

“A gradual pick up in volumes including from FIIs and DIIs along with stable domestic cues and release of advanced estimates of a rise in FY22 GDP by 9.2 per cent portend well for the near term,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC securities.

“17,944-17,655 could be the range for the Nifty in the near term.”

Besides, the Q3FY22 earnings result season will be kicked-off from next week.

As per schedule, IT majors such as Infosys, TCS and Wipro are expected to be the first bluechip firms to come out with their respective Q3FY22 earning results.

Furthermore, other companies like Mindtree, HCL Technologies and HDFC Bank are expected to announce their quarterly results in the coming week.

“Going ahead, next week, an expected strong earnings delivery by the IT sector would hold the key to drive markets,” Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research, Broking and Distribution for Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

“Global cues were positive on hopes of steady recovery as well as return of FIIs will be other major factors for the market.”

Furthermore, he said that going ahead, market trend might become volatile in the near term on account of potential risk from Omicron variant, upcoming budget and fragile global cues.

Apart from the Q3FY22 results, investors will look out for the upcoming macro-economic data points such as the IIP (Index of Industrial Production) and Balance of Trade figures.

“The coming week will be driven by the trends in the initial earnings outcome with the IT sector in focus,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

“It is also a busy week in terms of the release of macroeconomic data points like inflation data for December and manufacturing and industrial production data for November.”

The Central Statistics Office is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and CPI on January 12.

Business

Petroleum dealers seek exemption from MDR on fuel sales

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New Delhi, Sep 17: Representatives of the All India Petroleum Dealers Association (AIPDA) met senior officials of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas on Thursday to discuss their demand for exemption from the merchant discount rate (MDR) on UPI transactions on fuel sales at petrol pumps.

The dealers’ body said in a statement that the issue was discussed with senior officials of the Petroleum Ministry as the additional MDR cost could put pressure on dealer margins, as retail fuel sales are made on prescribed commissions.

The new UPI framework levies an MDR of Rs 5 per transaction on petrol and diesel purchases above Rs 2,000. Such transactions account for around 30-40 per cent of total purchases across retail outlets in the country, according to dealers.

Petroleum Ministry officials sought to explain the rationale behind introducing MDR, which was required to support the development of the next layer of India’s UPI digital infrastructure.

“Petroleum dealers have been at the forefront of adopting digital payments and have worked closely with the government to promote their use across the country,” the AIPDA said.

The association said it expects to continue the dialogue with the government.

“We look forward to continuing the dialogue towards a mutually beneficial solution for consumers, petroleum dealers, and all stakeholders in India’s UPI ecosystem,” the statement said.

Dealers have raised concerns as digital payments have become an important mode of payment at petrol pumps, particularly for higher-value purchases.

Petroleum dealers have sought a complete exemption for fuel retail transactions, citing the nature of their business and the impact of MDR-related costs on their margins.

The Finance Ministry clarified that MDR is neither a tax nor a charge collected by the government or NPCI. It is distributed among payment ecosystem participants, including banks and payment application providers, to support the operation and continued expansion of the UPI ecosystem.

Transactions above Rs 2,000 in essential and thin-margin sectors, including railways, telecommunications, insurance, fuel and agricultural inputs, will attract a flat MDR of Rs 5 per transaction. The flat charge will provide cost certainty for critical public services and businesses operating on narrow margins.

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Maharashtra forms Kelkar panel to tackle fiscal stress, boost revenues

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Mumbai, Sep 17: In a major push to reinforce Maharashtra’s fiscal health and support its long-term growth roadmap, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis announced the constitution of the Maharashtra Sustainable Public Finance Committee.

Headed by renowned economist and former Union Finance Secretary Dr Vijay Kelkar, the high-level panel, which was announced late Wednesday evening, is tasked with recommending measures to ensure sustainable growth in tax and non-tax revenues.

The decision forms an integral part of the state’s ‘Viksit Maharashtra @ 2047’ vision document, which outlines a strategic roadmap to scale the state’s economy to $1 trillion by 2030 and $5 trillion by 2047—coinciding with the centenary of India’s Independence.

The panel has been tasked with making recommendations to modernise the tax system, plug revenue leakages, and rationalise tax rates, fees, and exemptions; identify untapped revenue streams and maximise returns from public assets and state enterprises; streamline public spending while balancing expanding committed expenditures such as salaries, pensions, interest payments, and welfare schemes; and devise a fiscally responsible roadmap to reduce reliance on borrowings for infrastructure projects and budget deficits.

The Kelkar Committee comprises Prof Karthik Muralidharan (founder-director, CEGIS), Dr Nitin Kareer (former Chief Secretary, Maharashtra), T Rabi Sankar (former Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India) and Dr Ashima Goyal (President, The Indian Econometric Society).

The formation of the panel comes at a critical juncture for Maharashtra. While the state actively pursues an investment-led growth strategy across core sectors—including infrastructure, human resource development, water security, urban management, and energy transition—it faces growing fiscal constraints.

Maharashtra government’s Vision document has suggested restructuring the government expenditure policy to align with long-term capital formation, identifying alternative financing models and private capital inflows.

Fiscal deficit targets are capped within standard Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) boundaries, targeting 2.8 per cent to 3.0 per cent of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) while keeping the revenue deficit under 0.7 per cent of GSDP, and implementation is tracked quarterly via a dedicated Vision Management Unit chaired by the chief minister.

Adhering to the targets set under the FRBM Act has proved challenging due to rising welfare commitments and debt servicing costs. Consequently, the government has frequently resorted to market borrowings to fund capital projects and offset short-term liquidity shortfalls.

The newly appointed Kelkar Committee is expected to deliver structural fiscal remedies to reverse this trend and secure long-term financial sustainability for the state.

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From GDP to startups: Key numbers tracking India’s economic and infrastructure growth as PM Modi turns 76

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New Delhi, Sep 17: As Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday turned 76 with his tenure marked by expansion across India’s economy, financial inclusion, infrastructure and startup ecosystem.

Several key numbers highlight the scale of changes recorded during his time as prime minister. On of them is India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) which grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of fiscal 2026-27 with manufacturing and services supporting the expansion.

As per government data, real gross value added rose 8.2 per cent, while investment grew 11.9 per cent, household consumption increased 7.1 per cent and exports rose 12 per cent.

Apart from that, India’s nominal GDP is estimated at around $4.15 trillion that underscores the expansion of the world’s major emerging economy despite global trade and geopolitical uncertainties.

In addition, India’s foreign exchange reserves also rose to a record $785.7 billion in the week ended September 4, according to Reserve Bank of India data.

The reserves have increased for 10 consecutive weeks and surged nearly $120 billion over that period. Also, India is the world’s fourth-largest holder of foreign exchange reserves.

Moreover, the number of beneficiaries under the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana stood at 59.21 crore as of September 2, according to the government, while deposits in the accounts totalled Rs 3.17 lakh crore and 41.39 crore RuPay debit cards had been issued.

Women accounted for 32.98 crore accounts, while 46.03 crore beneficiaries were in rural and semi-urban areas, the official data said.

On the infrastructure front, the nation’s national highway network under PM Modi’s leadership has expanded to 146,572 km from 91,287 km in fiscal 2013-14.

The Economic Survey said average annual highway construction rose to 9,704 km during 2014-25, compared with 4,174 km during 2004-14.

Under his guidance, the number of startups recognised by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade has risen to more than 2.47 lakh as of August 2026 from 502 in 2016

Meanwhile, Startup India rules have also increased the turnover threshold for startup recognition to Rs 200 crore, while DeepTech startups have a higher ceiling of Rs 300 crore.

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