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Tuesday,13-May-2025
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Markets precariously poised 

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Markets gained during the week after losing ground for the previous two consecutive weeks. BSESENSEX was up 989.85 points or 1.68 per cent to close at 51,793.18 points. NIFTY gained 293.90 points or 1.68 per cent to close at 17,833.35 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.60 per cent, 1.67 per cent and 1.73 per centrespectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.86 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 2.53 per cent.

Indian Rupee gained 22 paisa or 0.28 per cent to close at Rs 79.58. Dow Jones lost on the first two days and then gained on the remaining three days to end the week with gains of 833.27 points or 2.66 per cent to close at 32,151.71 points.

In primary news, there was one listing, one issue which had opened for subscription and also closed and a third which had its roadshow. The issue from Dreamfolks Services Limited listed on Tuesday and fared well on expected lines. Shares which were issued at Rs 326, saw a discovered price of Rs 505 on BSE, a high of Rs 550 and closed at Rs 462.65. By Friday, shares lost some ground and closed lower at Rs 430.80.

The issue from Tamilnad Mercantile Bank had tapped the markets with its fresh issue in a price band of Rs 500-525. The issue was subscribed 2.85 times with QIB portion subscribed 1.62 times, HNI portion was subscribed 2.94 times and Retail portion was subscribed 6.43 times. There were 1.33 lakh applications. Considering the issue, the response from QIB’s could at best be said as tepid.

The issue from Harsha Engineers Limited opens on Wednesday the 14th of September and closes on Friday the 16th of September. The price band is Rs 314-330. The company makes bearing cages as its key product and supplies to leading bearing manufacturers not only in India but also globally. Japanese manufacturers have begun to buy from Harsha and this could be a big boost in revenues going forward.

The company reported revenues of Rs 1,321.48 crore for the year ended March 2022 and a profit after tax of Rs 91.94 crore. The PE at the top end of the band is 27.73 times. The company has undergone a restructuring exercise and has amalgamated all its businesses under one name. This has diluted the equity to some extent and while the basic EPS for the year ended March 22 was 16.06, on a diluted basis it works out to Rs 11.09. The share and the business look attractive.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, our markets would find strong resistance at the 17,750-800 levels and 59,450-59,550 levels. While we have almost closed at the above levels, we need to break out of them and sustain at higher levels. In case they do manage to break these levels for any reason, the previous tops made at 18,000 and 60,400 would be very strong resistances in the period coming up. Strong support exists at 17,350 and 58,200. If these break then the next level would be 17,000-17,050 and 57,250-57,350. For a clear trend to emerge, 17,000 and 57,250 on the lower side and 18,000 and 59,550 on the upper side need to be decisively broken. Currently we have no news or momentum in the markets to break these levels.

The strategy would be to buy on dips and sell on rallies. One interesting development that has taken place in the last week, was that shorts in the futures were squared off to a large extent and to that effect markets have become hollow. In case there is any bad news and markets take a beating, the fall could become sharper than expected. Trade cautiously.

Business

Chinese missile maker’s stock tanks over 6 pc after India destroys its air weapon

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New Delhi, May 13: The shares of Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp Ltd, the Chinese defence company that manufactures the PL-15 missile, dropped sharply by 6.42 per cent or 2.56 Yuan to 37.33 Yuan on Tuesday, after India’s air defence system successfully intercepted and destroyed the missile during the conflict with Pakistan.

Over the past month, the company’s shares have declined by 7.37 per cent, or 2.97 Yuan. However, the stock showed a brief 5-day recovery of 7.58 per cent.

The stock plunge came after Indian defence forces confirmed that the PL-15 missile, supplied to Pakistan by China, failed to penetrate the country’s multi-layered air defence system.

On the night of May 9 and 10, Pakistan launched a series of air attacks targeting Indian Air Force bases and military facilities using advanced weaponry, including the Chinese PL-15 missile and Turkish-made Byker YIHA III kamikaze drones.

However, India’s air defence successfully intercepted all threats.

The PL-15, a beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile used by Pakistan’s JF-17 and J-10 fighter jets, was neutralised by indigenous defence systems.

This interception has raised questions about the real-world effectiveness of China’s missile technology, possibly triggering the decline in investor confidence in Zhuzhou Hongda.

India’s Director General of Air Operations, Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, displayed images of the intercepted weapons, showcasing how the Indian defence network had destroyed high-tech missiles and drones.

He credited India’s self-reliant defence capabilities, particularly the indigenous ‘Akash’ air defense system, as a crucial factor in neutralising the threat.

The Akash system, alongside vintage systems like Pichora and advanced platforms including MANPADS, short-range missiles, and fighter aircraft, formed a coordinated defense shield under the Integrated Air Command and Control System.

The Turkish Byker YIHA III drone, capable of carrying high-explosive payloads and designed for low-altitude, high-speed attacks, was also intercepted near Amritsar.

This drone was intended to cause significant damage to military or civilian targets, but failed to breach India’s defenses.

Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai, Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), explained the multi-layered coordination among the Indian Army, Air Force, and Navy, describing a defence posture that was both measured and impenetrable.

Between May 9 and 10, India’s multi-layered air defence grid was put to the test as waves of drones, launched by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), attempted to penetrate Indian airspace. “Not a single PAF drone could breach the defence shield,” Lt Gen Ghai stated.

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Indian rupee opens stronger against US dollar

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Mumbai, May 13: The Indian rupee opened 75 paise stronger at 84.65 against the US dollar on Tuesday, following its previous close at 85.38 a dollar.

The trading range for the day was expected to be between 84.50 and 85.25, according to analysts. The dollar maintained its gains following a significant trade pact between the US and China.

The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 per cent to 30 per cent for 90 days, while China said it will cut tariffs on US goods from 125 per cent to 10 per cent for 90 days. The two countries will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations.

According to analysts, any fresh developments on the geopolitical front are likely to have a significant impact on the rupee’s direction.

In FY25, rupee traded in the range of 83.10 and 87.6 against the greenback, initially weakening after the US election results and depreciating by 2.4 per cent over the year due to persistent FPI outflows and a strong US dollar.

Despite these challenges, the rupee remained relatively stable compared to other global currencies, supported by healthy government finances, a declining current account deficit, improved liquidity, and moderating oil prices, among others, according to the NSE’s ‘Market Pulse Report’ for April.

Towards the end of the year, a reversal in dollar strength and renewed FPI inflows into debt helped the rupee recover, appreciating by 2.4 per cent in March 2025.

The rupee’s average annualised volatility declined to 2.7 per cent in FY25, positioning it among the least volatile major emerging market currencies, highlighting India’s strong external buffers and proactive forex management.

“However, the rupee remained overvalued, with the 40-currency trade weighted REER rising to 105.3, although both REER and NEER moderated gradually from H1FY25, indicating an easing of overvaluation. The one-year forward premium for the rupee continued to moderate, reflecting changing premium dynamics and India’s macroeconomic resilience,” the report mentioned.

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FIIs to resume equity purchases in India as bulls roar: Analysts

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Mumbai, May 12: The ceasefire between India and Pakistan has paved the way for a sharp rally in the market and with this, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are likely to resume their equity purchases in India, analysts said on Monday.

Sensex and Nifty surged more than 2.7 per cent in the morning trade.

According to market watchers, the prime mover of the rally will now be the FII buying, which has been sustained for 16 continuous days except last Friday when the conflict escalated.

“Domestic macros like expectations of high GDP growth and revival of earnings growth in FY26 and declining inflation and interest rates augur well for the resumption of a rally in the market,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

FIIs favour large caps like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, L&T, Bharti, Ultratech, M&M and Eicher. Midcap IT and digital stocks are other segments to watch.

Pharma stocks may come under near-term pressure from US President Donald Trump’s latest announcement regarding reducing prices of drugs in the US.

“There are rumours of impending US deal with China on trade but details are yet to come. If a deal materialises that would be good for the global economy,” said Vijayakumar.

The hallmark of FPI investment in recent days has been the sustained buying by FIIs. FIIs bought equity through the exchanges consecutively for 16 trading days ending 8th May for a cumulative amount of Rs 48,533 crore.

“They sold for Rs 3,798 crore on 9th May when the India-Pak conflict got escalated. Now that ceasefire has been declared, FIIs are likely to resume their equity purchases in India,” said analysts.

It is important to understand that FIIs were continuous sellers in India in the first three months of this year. The big selling began in January (Rs 78,027 crore) when the dollar index peaked at 111 in mid-January.

Thereafter, the intensity of selling declined. FIIs turned buyers in April with a buy figure of Rs 4,243 crore.

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