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India’s CPI inflation declines to 8-year low of 1.54 pc in September

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New Delhi, Oct 13: India’s inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to an over 8-year low of 1.54 per cent in September this year, compared to the same month of the previous year, as prices of food items and fuels turned cheaper during the month, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Monday.

This is the lowest year-on-year inflation after June 2017, and is also lower than the inflation rate of 2.05 per cent for August.

Food inflation continued in the negative zone for the fourth consecutive month and was recorded at -2.28 per cent during September, the figures showed.

“The decline in headline inflation and food inflation during September is mainly attributed to a favourable base effect and the decline in inflation of vegetables, edible oils, fruits, pulses, cereals and egg. Besides, fuels also turned cheaper during the month,” the official statement said.

The inflation outlook for 2025-26 has become more benign due to large favourable base effects combined with the good southwest monsoon, healthy kharif sowing, adequate reservoir levels and comfortable buffer stocks of foodgrains. The GST rate cuts, which kicked in on September 22, are bringing down prices across goods which will result in reducing inflation further in the coming months.

The decline in the inflation rate gives the RBI more headroom to continue with a soft money policy by cutting interest rates and injecting more money into the economy to spur growth.

The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) on October 1 slashed its forecast for India’s inflation rate for the financial year 2025-26 to 2.6 per cent from 3.1 per cent in August primarily on account of the GST rate cuts and benign food prices.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, “The recently implemented GST rate rationalisation would lead to a reduction in prices of several items in the CPI basket. Overall, the inflation outcome is likely to be softer than what was projected in the August monetary policy committee resolution, primarily on account of the GST rate cuts and benign food prices.”

Addressing journalists after the MPC meeting, Malhotra said that the “overall inflation outlook has turned even more benign in the last few months.”

The RBI Governor pointed out that headline CPI inflation declined to its eight-year low of 1.6 per cent year-on-year in July 2025 before rising to 2.1 per cent in August – its first increase after nine months. Benign inflation conditions during 2025-26 so far have been primarily driven by a sharp decline in food inflation from its peak of October 2024.

Inflation within the fuel group moved in a narrow range of 2.4-2.7 per cent during June-August. Core inflation remained largely contained at 4.2 per cent in August. Excluding precious metals, core inflation was at 3.0 per cent in August.

The RBI Governor further stated that the current macroeconomic conditions and the outlook has opened up policy space for further supporting growth.

Business

Gold, silver prices gain up to 3 pc on weak dollar, oil prices

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Mumbai, Gold and silver traded higher on Wednesday, tracking weakness in oil prices and the dollar index, with both precious metals gaining up to 3 per cent.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5) opened at Rs 1,52,000 per 10 grams, up Rs 2,247 or 1.5 per cent from the previous close of Rs 1,49,753.

At 11:30 am, gold was trading at Rs 1,52,419, up Rs 2,666 or 1.78 per cent. So far in the session, the yellow metal has touched an intraday high of Rs 1,52,450, up Rs 2,697 or 1.8 per cent. At the intraday low, it was still trading higher by Rs 1,900 or 1.26 per cent at Rs 1,51,653.

Meanwhile, silver futures (July 3) opened at Rs 2,49,316 per kg — also the intraday low so far — a jump of Rs 5,000 or 2.04 per cent from the previous close. At the time of filing the report, it was trading at Rs 2,51,699, up Rs 7,383 or 3.02 per cent.

In the international market as well, precious metals were trading higher. COMEX gold was up 1.92 per cent at $4,656 per ounce, while silver gained 3.45 per cent to $76.12 per ounce.

Analysts said gold prices edged higher after recovering from a one-month low, supported by easing concerns over US-Iran tensions and some stability in oil prices.

However, elevated crude prices and expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment continue to cap gains in bullion, they added.

In addition, the dollar index slipped 0.34 per cent to 97.97. The dollar index measures the US dollar’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, the euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

Typically, a weaker dollar supports prices of precious metals like gold and silver.

On Tuesday, international oil benchmark Brent crude fell 2.30 per cent to $107.33 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined 3 per cent to $99.12 per barrel.

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Gold and silver prices slide as Trump signals easing US-Iran tensions

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Mumbai, May 4: Gold and silver prices declined up to 1 per cent on Monday amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, following remarks by US President Donald Trump.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold contracts for June 5 opened at Rs 1,51,150, down Rs 382 or 0.25 per cent from the previous close of Rs 1,51,532.

At around 11.30 a.m., gold was trading at Rs 1,50,623, lower by Rs 729 or 0.48 per cent. The yellow metal touched an intraday low of Rs 1,50,400, a decline of 0.62 per cent or Rs 952, and an intraday high of Rs 1,51,347.

On the other hand, silver contracts for July 3 opened at Rs 2,50,699, down Rs 238 or 0.09 per cent compared to the previous close of Rs 2,50,937. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,49,600, down Rs 1,337 or 0.53 per cent.

So far in the session, silver futures hit a low of Rs 2,49,600, a decrease of 1.05 per cent or Rs 2,599, and a high of Rs 2,51,231.

Meanwhile, in the international market, both precious metals remained under pressure. COMEX gold was down 0.55 per cent at $4,619 per ounce, while silver declined 0.48 per cent to $76.065 per ounce.

A commodity market expert said gold prices extended last week’s decline, hovering near one-month lows, as a stronger dollar and elevated crude oil prices weighed on sentiment.

The expert further noted that while easing US-Iran tensions reduced some safe-haven demand, supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz continued to fuel inflation concerns, prompting a cautiously hawkish stance from major central banks, which also weighed on bullion.

US President Donald Trump said the United States would initiate efforts to help vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the move as a humanitarian gesture aimed at assisting neutral countries not involved in the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

According to Trump, Washington would launch ‘Project Freedom’ to guide the stranded ships and their crews safely through the route.

However, he warned that Iran would face a strong response if any threat emerged.

In addition, crude oil prices declined sharply.

Brent crude fell 0.61 per cent to $107.51 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 2.77 per cent to $99.11 a barrel.

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OPEC+ agrees to oil output quota hike amid Hormuz blockade, Kuwait oil exports zero

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New Delhi, May 3: Amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to raise oil output targets in June.

Multiple reports say that seven OPEC+ countries have agreed to raise oil output targets by about 188,000 barrels per day next month. The output hike would rather be largely symbolic until Strait of Hormuz reopens.

This will be the third consecutive monthly increase amid the geopolitical crisis and the departure of the UAE from the group.

With the UAE leaving, OPEC+ includes 21 members, including Iran.

However, only the seven nations (and the UAE) have been involved in monthly production decisions. Iran, also an OPEC+ member, has seen its own exports dwindle amid the blockade.

Crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, down 7.70 million bpd from February.

Last week, the UAE announced it was leaving the OPEC and OPEC+ cartels in what is seen as a major setback to the group of oil-exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia. The UAE said the decision reflected its “long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”.

The exit of the UAE is expected to weaken the oil cartel at a time when the Persian Gulf countries have taken a huge hit to their exports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by an embattled Iran. The UAE accounts for around 15 per cent of the OPEC oil exports.

Reports also surfaced that Kuwait exported zero barrels of crude oil in April, a situation not seen since the 1991 Iraqi occupation, due to blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, impacting around 2 million barrels per day. The blockade has led to a complete disruption in Kuwaiti exports.

Meanwhile, oil prices dropped after reports said Iran proposed fresh talks with the United States using Pakistan as a mediator.

West Texas Intermediate fell more than five per cent and dropped below $100 per barrel. It later recovered to $101.7.

Brent crude also fell more than three per cent to $106.98 before rising again to $108.4.

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