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India’s CPI inflation declines to 8-year low of 1.54 pc in September

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New Delhi, Oct 13: India’s inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to an over 8-year low of 1.54 per cent in September this year, compared to the same month of the previous year, as prices of food items and fuels turned cheaper during the month, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Monday.

This is the lowest year-on-year inflation after June 2017, and is also lower than the inflation rate of 2.05 per cent for August.

Food inflation continued in the negative zone for the fourth consecutive month and was recorded at -2.28 per cent during September, the figures showed.

“The decline in headline inflation and food inflation during September is mainly attributed to a favourable base effect and the decline in inflation of vegetables, edible oils, fruits, pulses, cereals and egg. Besides, fuels also turned cheaper during the month,” the official statement said.

The inflation outlook for 2025-26 has become more benign due to large favourable base effects combined with the good southwest monsoon, healthy kharif sowing, adequate reservoir levels and comfortable buffer stocks of foodgrains. The GST rate cuts, which kicked in on September 22, are bringing down prices across goods which will result in reducing inflation further in the coming months.

The decline in the inflation rate gives the RBI more headroom to continue with a soft money policy by cutting interest rates and injecting more money into the economy to spur growth.

The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) on October 1 slashed its forecast for India’s inflation rate for the financial year 2025-26 to 2.6 per cent from 3.1 per cent in August primarily on account of the GST rate cuts and benign food prices.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, “The recently implemented GST rate rationalisation would lead to a reduction in prices of several items in the CPI basket. Overall, the inflation outcome is likely to be softer than what was projected in the August monetary policy committee resolution, primarily on account of the GST rate cuts and benign food prices.”

Addressing journalists after the MPC meeting, Malhotra said that the “overall inflation outlook has turned even more benign in the last few months.”

The RBI Governor pointed out that headline CPI inflation declined to its eight-year low of 1.6 per cent year-on-year in July 2025 before rising to 2.1 per cent in August – its first increase after nine months. Benign inflation conditions during 2025-26 so far have been primarily driven by a sharp decline in food inflation from its peak of October 2024.

Inflation within the fuel group moved in a narrow range of 2.4-2.7 per cent during June-August. Core inflation remained largely contained at 4.2 per cent in August. Excluding precious metals, core inflation was at 3.0 per cent in August.

The RBI Governor further stated that the current macroeconomic conditions and the outlook has opened up policy space for further supporting growth.

Business

Gold holds steady amid easing US-Iran tensions; silver gains on MCX

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Mumbai, Gold prices remained largely steady on Wednesday as improving prospects of easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran kept investor sentiment in check.

During early trade, MCX gold May futures were marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at Rs 1,53,305 per 10 grams.

Commenting on gold technical outlook, experts said that a sustained move above Rs 1,55,000 could revive momentum toward Rs 1,57,000-Rs 1,58,000.

“On the downside, a break below Rs 1,54,000 may lead to a corrective move toward Rs 1,52,000 and further to Rs 1,50,000,” an analyst stated.

Silver prices, however, saw stronger buying interest, with MCX silver May futures rising 0.83 per cent to Rs 2,54,842 per kg.

“Resistance is placed at Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,63,000, with further upside toward Rs 2,68,000–Rs 2,70,000,” a market expert said.

“A sustained move above these levels could strengthen momentum and support further gains. On the downside, a break below Rs 2,48,000 may lead to a corrective move toward the Rs 2,44,000–Rs 2,40,000 range,” as per an analyst.

In the previous session, gold had ended flat at Rs 1,53,216 per 10 grams, while silver futures slipped 0.1 per cent to Rs 2,25,499 per kg.

Globally, the yellow metal held on to its recent gains amid optimism that Washington and Tehran could move towards a negotiated settlement to the conflict that began on February 28.

The easing of tensions has reduced fears of a sharp energy-supply shock, which had earlier raised concerns about inflationary pressures.

Spot gold hovered near $4,850 an ounce after rising as much as 0.6 per cent during the session. The metal had surged over 2 per cent in the previous trading session on expectations that the US and Iran may soon hold a second round of ceasefire talks.

US President Donald Trump has indicated that negotiations could resume “over the next two days,” further boosting hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Despite the recent stability, gold has faced pressure in recent weeks, falling nearly 8 per cent since the conflict began.

Early in the crisis, a liquidity squeeze prompted investors to offload bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.

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Business

Indian stock market in positive territory, overall sentiment remains balanced

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Mumbai, The Indian stock markets witnessed a strong rebound last week after six consecutive weeks of decline, supported by favourable global cues, according to analysts.

Sentiment remained buoyant amid optimism surrounding a temporary US–Iran ceasefire, although lingering geopolitical uncertainties capped the pace of gains as the week progressed.

“The rally was further aided by a stable domestic macro backdrop, with broader markets outperforming the benchmarks. Despite elevated volatility marked by sharp mid-week gains and subsequent profit booking, indices trended higher,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

The Nifty and Sensex gained around 6 per cent to close near the week’s highs at 24,050.60 and 77,550.25, respectively.

According to analysts, global developments remained a key influence, with the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran improving risk appetite, though uncertainty around its sustainability persisted.

Meanwhile, a sharp decline in crude oil prices below the $100 mark eased domestic concerns and triggered a strong rebound across markets.

On the domestic front, the RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retained a neutral stance, highlighting the need to balance inflation risks with growth support.

The central bank also revised FY26 GDP growth upward to 7.6 per cent while projecting FY27 growth at 6.9 per cent.

Inflation projections were raised to 4.6 per cent for FY27, reflecting risks from elevated energy prices and potential weather-related disruptions.

Market watchers said that overall sentiment remains balanced but cautious, shaped by global cues, crude oil price movements and ongoing foreign investor activity.

Downside appears to be relatively contained, but upside momentum remains constrained, pointing to a recovery that is still tentative and low in conviction, they added.

Economic indicators showed signs of moderation, with the Services PMI easing to 57.5 and the Composite PMI to 57.0 in March.

However, global agencies remained constructive, with the World Bank raising India’s growth outlook, supported by strong domestic demand and structural factors, said analysts.

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Business

Crude oil prices tank up to 20 pc over Iran ceasefire announcement

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New Delhi, April 8: Global crude oil prices on Wednesday plunged sharply up to 20 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran that includes a pledge to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway at the heart of the world’s most acute energy crisis in decades.

The international benchmark Brent crude futures shed nearly 16 per cent or $17.39 to $91.88, hitting an intraday low, while US WTI crude declined almost 20 per cent or $21.90 to $91.05.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has been at the centre of the conflict. Iran had restricted passage for several weeks, contributing to rising prices and supply concerns. Markets had been on edge ahead of Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach a deal, with traders fearing a major escalation could disrupt shipments across the Gulf and send prices sharply higher.

Oil prices had surged in recent weeks amid fears that the strait could be closed or severely restricted. The waterway handles shipments critical to global supply chains, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

The US-Israel-Iran conflict has been paused for two weeks after approximately 40 days of hostilities that began in February.

President Trump’s shift in stance came just ahead of his stated deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk extensive strikes on its civilian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Iran indicated it would halt its military operations provided attacks against it ceased simultaneously. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a formal statement, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be ensured for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

The conflict had triggered an unprecedented surge in oil prices in March, with gains exceeding 60 per cent during the period.

Additionally, Indian equity benchmarks also rallied sharply on the development, trading more than 3 per cent higher in early trade. The Sensex jumped nearly 4 per cent, while the Nifty surged 3.5 per cent to their respective intraday highs.

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