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Goldman Sachs says Paytm’s current share price is a compelling entry point, ICICI Securities issue Buy rating

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Paytm continues to get the confidence of top brokerages, who are bullish about the companys “immense growth potential”. Goldman Sachs pointed out the strong growth potential for Paytms lending business, saying the firm will hit $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22.

Analysts believe Paytm’s ESOP costs will gradually reduce and are currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally ICICI Securities report said that by FY26, Paytm’s monthly transacting users are likely to double

Paytm, India’s leading digital payments and financial services, continues to get ‘Buy’ calls from top brokerages. After Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Dolat Capital, ICICI Securities has also issued a Buy rating for Paytm.

Goldman Sachs had given Paytm a Buy rating, with a target price of Rs 460 on February 7. On Monday, the investment bank reiterated its Buy rating, pointing out key notes for investors. The report said that “the current share price offers a compelling entry point into India’s largest and amongst the fastest growing fintech platforms”.

ICICI Securities has now initiated coverage for Paytm and highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), giving a “Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,362.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that Paytm continues to gain market share across both UPI and non-UPI payments, besides strong growth in lending business. It said Paytm’s net payments take rate or spreads have, defined as revenue less payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) have been improving.

“Paytm’s net payments take rate (or spreads, defined as revenue less payment processing charges as a proportion of GMV) have been improving. From 8 bps in 3QFY22, we forecast spreads to widen to 11 bps by FY26E as a result of Paytm’s scale benefits; increasing share of UPI for wallet money addition; rising share of wallet for online payments (vs in-store, which have zero MDR); and rising share of device rental revenues,” the brokerage noted.

Paytm’s ESOP costs to gradually reduce, currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally.

Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) costs will reduce gradually and is currently at par with other listed tech companies in India as well as globally.

“We forecast ESOP charge for Paytm to be highest (at Rs 3.9 billion per quarter) for first two years (when the first tranche vests, per Paytm), and then gradually reduce over the next three years. Paytm also has about 15 million un-granted options and per our estimate, the total share count could increase by 46 million (or 7 per cent of current outstanding), if all options were to be vested/granted,” said the Goldman Sachs note.

“We note that as a proportion of total operating expenses, Paytm’s ESOP cost is not significantly different vs other global platforms such as Airbnb and DoorDash, as well as recently listed India internet peers such as Zomato and PB Fintech.”

Meanwhile, ICICI Securities in its note called out Paytm’s immense growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), buoyed by its leadership position in India’s digital payments ecosystem.

The brokerage said Paytm’s digital payments business has the potential to grow strongly in future, reflecting its “sizeable two-sided digital ecosystem with proven leadership in payments”.

“Paytm is well ahead in the race of digitisation, building a robust full stack technology suite integrated across the ecosystem with distinct features, high success rates, easy user interface, and customer convenience. It has an early mover advantage in rolling out wallet, FASTag, and is ahead of the curve in (skill based) online gaming, too,” said the note by ICICI Securities.

During the October-December quarter, the company saw its revenues jump by 89 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1,456 crore, EBITDA losses (before ESOP expense) came down to Rs 393 crore from Rs 488 crore during the same quarter in the previous year.

In its latest filing with the stock exchange, Paytm had shared its highest ever growth in monthly transacting users to 68.9 million users. Now, it seems analysts are bullish about this growth momentum to continue. ICICI Securities highlighted that Paytm’s monthly transacting user base (MTUs) is likely to double over FY22-26E to more than 120 million.

Paytm had said that in Q3 FY 22, its merchant payments-led GMV stood at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast that Paytm’s merchant GMV would grow at 36 per cent CAGR over FY22-26E to reach Rs 30 trillion and within this, MDR linked GMV is estimated to grow at more than 25 per cent.

The brokerage noted that Paytm’s contribution margin has potential to further improve 40 per cent-46 per cent by FY24E/FY26E.

“Aided by this contribution margin, there is some visibility of EBITDA getting into positive territory post FY26E. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding non-cash ESOP charges) will turn positive by FY26,” it added.

Both Goldman Sachs and ICICI Securities believe that Paytm’s lending business, in which it partners financial institutions to provide loans on its platform, has the potential to grow rapidly in the medium term.

Goldman Sachs said: “We believe Paytm will be able to continue to scale its lending portfolio, and forecast $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22. Paytm has continued to add new partners for its lending products over the last few quarters, suggesting to us that lenders are finding value in this partnership.”

Paytm’s lending business witnessed record growth in January 2022, maintaining the positive trend witnessed in the Q3 FY 22 earnings. Last month, Paytm registered 1.9 million loan disbursals, marking a y-o-y growth of 331 per cent; aggregating to a total value of Rs 921 crore (y-o-y growth of 334%). This also included a staggering growth in its Buy Now, Pay Later product – Paytm Postpaid.

“For Paytm’s BNPL product, 30 per cent + of the monthly sign-ups (Dec ’21 quarter) were new-to-credit customers, helping expand the credit base for Paytm’s financial partners. Per Paytm, performance of the company’s loan portfolio has resulted in higher confidence from lenders to increase the scale of this business,” it added.

Meanwhile, ICICI Securities also shared an optimistic outlook about Paytm’s lending business, estimating 18-19 million consumers (15 per cent of MTUs), and an increasing number of merchants to avail lending products through Paytm platform by FY26E.

Sharing a medium-term outlook, it estimated the total lending business revenue to grow at 61 per cent over FY22-26E.

Business

Tata Motors Unveils Limited-Edition Safari STEALTH to Mark 27 Years of Legacy

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Tata Motors is celebrating 27 years of the Safari with the launch of the exclusive STEALTH Edition, a limited-run variant designed for those who seek style and performance. Available in both the Harrier and Safari models, only 2,700 units of this edition will be produced. The Harrier STEALTH is priced at Rs 25.09 lakh (ex-showroom, Delhi), while the Safari STEALTH starts at Rs 25.74 lakh (ex-showroom, Delhi) and is offered in both 6- and 7-seater configurations. With a striking design, premium features, and advanced technology, the STEALTH Edition adds a new level of exclusivity to Tata’s SUV lineup.

The Tata STEALTH Edition brings a bold, monotone design that reflects the growing demand for exclusive and distinctive vehicles. With limited units available, this special edition is set to attract enthusiasts looking for a unique SUV. Bookings for the STEALTH Edition opened on February 21, both online and at Tata dealerships across India, giving customers the chance to own a rare and stylish addition to Tata’s lineup.

The Harrier and Safari STEALTH Edition stand out with their bold design and advanced features, built on the sturdy OMEGARC platform derived from Land Rover’s D8 architecture. The exclusive Matte Black finish, R19 Black Alloy Wheels, and a distinctive STEALTH mascot give these SUVs a powerful road presence. Inside, the cabin is designed for comfort with ventilated first- and second-row seats (Safari only for the second row), a Carbon-Noir interior theme, and a voice-assisted dual-zone climate control system.

Technology is a highlight, featuring a 31.24 cm Harman touchscreen, Arcade App Store, Alexa Home 2 Car, Map My India navigation, and a 10-speaker JBL audio system with Harman AudioworX. Power comes from a 2.0L KRYOTEC BS6 Phase 2 turbocharged engine producing 170PS, paired with a 6-speed automatic transmission. Safety is a priority, with Level 2+ ADAS offering 21 functions, including a segment-first Intelligent Speed Assist, along with 7 airbags and ESP with 17 safety features.

Unveiling this exciting new version of the Harrier and Safari, Vivek Srivatsa, Chief Commercial Officer, Tata Passenger Electric Mobility Ltd., stated, “Tata Motors has been a leader in the Indian SUV segment, with innovation at its core. The Tata Safari, which introduced the concept of a lifestyle SUV to India, reflects this legacy of pioneering excellence. Over 27 remarkable years, the Safari has constantly evolved, and the launch of the STEALTH Edition is a tribute to this journey. This special edition is an exclusive offering, with only 2,700 units available in the striking STEALTH Matte Black finish. More than just an SUV, the STEALTH Edition is a symbol of prestige, adventure, and capability, making it a highly desirable collector’s item for enthusiasts and connoisseurs. Owning a STEALTH Edition isn’t just about having an extraordinary vehicle—it’s about claiming a piece of automotive history that many will aspire to have in their collection.”

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Business

Maruti Suzuki’s New Mid-Term Plan Aims To Make India An Export Hub, Launch More EVs

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New Delhi: The Suzuki Motor Corporation of Japan, the parent company of Maruti Suzuki India, on Thursday announced a new mid-term plan with a “rethink” in its strategy as “the business environment has changed due to declining market share in India” and the growing electrical vehicles segment.

In its new mid-term plan for 2025-30, the company has identified India as its “most important market”. Maruti Suzuki aims to create a manufacturing capacity of producing 4 million cars annually to reclaim a 50 per cent market share in India and use the country as a global export hub as well.

The auto major plans to expand its EV lineup starting with the e-Vitara, and is aiming to launch four new EV models by FY30 in a segment where its rivals like Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra already have a varied EV portfolio in India.

“In India, we will promote further localisation in line with the growth of the electric vehicle market,” the company said.

Maruti Suzuki is currently exporting three lakh vehicles from India annually. By the end of this decade, it is targeting the export of 7.5-8 lakh units per year.

While the company noted it achieved revenue and profit targets ahead of schedule by improving sales mix and quality, its sales volume target could not be met.

It noted that the “competitive environment is becoming increasingly severe, and the quality of product functions, equipment and services required by customers is increasing”.

It aims to be India’s no.1 carmaker in terms of production, local sales and exports of electric cars. A total of six electric vehicles will be introduced by FY30, including four electric cars and two commercial vehicles.

Suzuki Motor plans to invest 1,200 billion yen (about Rs 7,000 crore) as capital expenditure towards production, new models, carbon neutrality and quality measures. A new plant in Haryana’s Kharkhoda and an assembly line in Suzuki Motor Gujarat will come onstream by 2030 for a total installed capacity of four million units.

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Business

‘Made in India’ iPhone 6e not SE variant but a next-gen entry point for consumers

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New Delhi, Feb 20: In a further push to the local manufacturing, the entire iPhone 16 lineup, including the newly-launched iPhone 16e, is now being assembled in India for domestic market as well as for exports, as industry experts on Thursday cleared the air around the new device being compared to now-retired iPhone SE.

The new Apple device, with A18 chip, breakthrough battery life, Apple Intelligence, and a 48MP 2-in-1 camera system, is being manufactured/assembled for local consumption as well as for export to select countries.

According to experts, iPhone 16e is not iPhone SE4 and the whole “comparison is futile”.

When iPhone SE was launched, it was another masterstroke at that time. However, times have changed since then.

“Essentially, Apple retired the SE lineup and extended the iPhone 16 lineup with a new entry point. iPhone SE was no longer adding any value to consumers, developers or Apple,” said Neil Shah, Partner and Co-Founder at Counterpoint Research.

The iPhone SE which was positioned as a “Special Edition,” which brought nostalgia of older and smaller design, was priced around $400.

However, the iPhone SE lost its value and popularity, which used to be once 16 per cent of the total iPhone sales volumes, dropped to 1 per cent last year.

According to Shah, consumers now prefer better cameras, bigger displays and faster processors.

“With all this background, what Apple did was to extend the 16 series with a newer ‘base version’ of iPhone 16 and now retired SE,” Shah explained.

According to industry experts, the company has done well with streamlining the series, reducing fragmentation in design and experience and able to charge $599 (US)/Rs 59,999 (India) with the newest entry point for the best Apple experiences.

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