Business
Goldman Sachs says Paytm’s current share price is a compelling entry point, ICICI Securities issue Buy rating

Paytm continues to get the confidence of top brokerages, who are bullish about the companys “immense growth potential”. Goldman Sachs pointed out the strong growth potential for Paytms lending business, saying the firm will hit $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22.
Analysts believe Paytm’s ESOP costs will gradually reduce and are currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally ICICI Securities report said that by FY26, Paytm’s monthly transacting users are likely to double
Paytm, India’s leading digital payments and financial services, continues to get ‘Buy’ calls from top brokerages. After Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Dolat Capital, ICICI Securities has also issued a Buy rating for Paytm.
Goldman Sachs had given Paytm a Buy rating, with a target price of Rs 460 on February 7. On Monday, the investment bank reiterated its Buy rating, pointing out key notes for investors. The report said that “the current share price offers a compelling entry point into India’s largest and amongst the fastest growing fintech platforms”.
ICICI Securities has now initiated coverage for Paytm and highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), giving a “Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,362.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that Paytm continues to gain market share across both UPI and non-UPI payments, besides strong growth in lending business. It said Paytm’s net payments take rate or spreads have, defined as revenue less payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) have been improving.
“Paytm’s net payments take rate (or spreads, defined as revenue less payment processing charges as a proportion of GMV) have been improving. From 8 bps in 3QFY22, we forecast spreads to widen to 11 bps by FY26E as a result of Paytm’s scale benefits; increasing share of UPI for wallet money addition; rising share of wallet for online payments (vs in-store, which have zero MDR); and rising share of device rental revenues,” the brokerage noted.
Paytm’s ESOP costs to gradually reduce, currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally.
Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) costs will reduce gradually and is currently at par with other listed tech companies in India as well as globally.
“We forecast ESOP charge for Paytm to be highest (at Rs 3.9 billion per quarter) for first two years (when the first tranche vests, per Paytm), and then gradually reduce over the next three years. Paytm also has about 15 million un-granted options and per our estimate, the total share count could increase by 46 million (or 7 per cent of current outstanding), if all options were to be vested/granted,” said the Goldman Sachs note.
“We note that as a proportion of total operating expenses, Paytm’s ESOP cost is not significantly different vs other global platforms such as Airbnb and DoorDash, as well as recently listed India internet peers such as Zomato and PB Fintech.”
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities in its note called out Paytm’s immense growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), buoyed by its leadership position in India’s digital payments ecosystem.
The brokerage said Paytm’s digital payments business has the potential to grow strongly in future, reflecting its “sizeable two-sided digital ecosystem with proven leadership in payments”.
“Paytm is well ahead in the race of digitisation, building a robust full stack technology suite integrated across the ecosystem with distinct features, high success rates, easy user interface, and customer convenience. It has an early mover advantage in rolling out wallet, FASTag, and is ahead of the curve in (skill based) online gaming, too,” said the note by ICICI Securities.
During the October-December quarter, the company saw its revenues jump by 89 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1,456 crore, EBITDA losses (before ESOP expense) came down to Rs 393 crore from Rs 488 crore during the same quarter in the previous year.
In its latest filing with the stock exchange, Paytm had shared its highest ever growth in monthly transacting users to 68.9 million users. Now, it seems analysts are bullish about this growth momentum to continue. ICICI Securities highlighted that Paytm’s monthly transacting user base (MTUs) is likely to double over FY22-26E to more than 120 million.
Paytm had said that in Q3 FY 22, its merchant payments-led GMV stood at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast that Paytm’s merchant GMV would grow at 36 per cent CAGR over FY22-26E to reach Rs 30 trillion and within this, MDR linked GMV is estimated to grow at more than 25 per cent.
The brokerage noted that Paytm’s contribution margin has potential to further improve 40 per cent-46 per cent by FY24E/FY26E.
“Aided by this contribution margin, there is some visibility of EBITDA getting into positive territory post FY26E. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding non-cash ESOP charges) will turn positive by FY26,” it added.
Both Goldman Sachs and ICICI Securities believe that Paytm’s lending business, in which it partners financial institutions to provide loans on its platform, has the potential to grow rapidly in the medium term.
Goldman Sachs said: “We believe Paytm will be able to continue to scale its lending portfolio, and forecast $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22. Paytm has continued to add new partners for its lending products over the last few quarters, suggesting to us that lenders are finding value in this partnership.”
Paytm’s lending business witnessed record growth in January 2022, maintaining the positive trend witnessed in the Q3 FY 22 earnings. Last month, Paytm registered 1.9 million loan disbursals, marking a y-o-y growth of 331 per cent; aggregating to a total value of Rs 921 crore (y-o-y growth of 334%). This also included a staggering growth in its Buy Now, Pay Later product – Paytm Postpaid.
“For Paytm’s BNPL product, 30 per cent + of the monthly sign-ups (Dec ’21 quarter) were new-to-credit customers, helping expand the credit base for Paytm’s financial partners. Per Paytm, performance of the company’s loan portfolio has resulted in higher confidence from lenders to increase the scale of this business,” it added.
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities also shared an optimistic outlook about Paytm’s lending business, estimating 18-19 million consumers (15 per cent of MTUs), and an increasing number of merchants to avail lending products through Paytm platform by FY26E.
Sharing a medium-term outlook, it estimated the total lending business revenue to grow at 61 per cent over FY22-26E.
National
AAP’s decision to go solo in Bihar polls draws ‘publicity stunt’ jibe from INDIA bloc ally

New Delhi, July 3: Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal’s announcement of contesting the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections alone has invited a slew of reactions from political parties. Various parties, its ally or adversary, reacted on expected lines; however, the harshest one came from the Congress party, its erstwhile alliance partner in the INDIA bloc.
From JD(U) to Congress and others, all elicited a common view that AAP remains a non-player in the Bihar electoral landscape and its political plunge will have no impact on the power equations there.
JD(U) leader Rajiv Ranjan said that AAP’s decision to contest all 243 seats in Bihar shows clear and deep cracks in the INDIA bloc.
“This alliance is already in ruins and is now headed for further decline, as Kejriwal has himself said that the INDIA bloc was formed for the 2024 elections,” he said.
He added that AAP’s foray into the Bihar arena will have a bearing on the INDIA bloc partners, including RJD, as Tejashwi Yadav and his party will find it difficult to rally support.
Congress leader Akhilesh Prasad Singh said this looks nothing more than a ‘publicity stunt’.
“AAP has no presence in Bihar, people don’t even know Kejriwal’s party name. By such announcements, he is trying to stay in the news. Kejriwal may be known to people here, but his party is non-existent in Bihar, he said.
Another Congress leader, Tariq Anwar, said AAP was welcome to contest elections in Bihar but warned of more backlash than support.
“Every party is independent to contest elections as per its own choice. AAP can also decide its fortunes in upcoming elections, but it is a fact that AAP has no base in Bihar, it has no elected representative in Bihar, even at the panchayat level,” he said.
“Deciding to take a political plunge in such a situation could incur more losses than benefits,” he added.
Notably, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal, addressing a press conference in Gujarat’s Gandhinagar on Thursday, said, “AAP will contest Bihar polls alone. The INDIA bloc was only for the Lok Sabha polls; there is no alliance with Congress now.”
When probed further, he said, “If there was any alliance, then why did Congress contest in Visavadar bypolls. They came to defeat us. BJP sent Congress to defeat us and cut the votes.”
National
Rahul Gandhi questions Maha govt over farmer suicides, BJP counters with facts during Cong-NCP rule

New Delhi, July 3: Leader of Opposition (LoP) in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi on Thursday criticised the BJP-led Maharashtra government over farmer suicides and accused the Centre of ignoring their plight. This prompted a swift response from the BJP, which cited findings and facts about farmer deaths in the state during the Congress-NCP rule to set the record straight.
The political blame game on farmer suicides began over the Fadnavis government’s admission that 767 farmers committed suicide in the state in the past three months. The state government told the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday that 767 farmer suicides were reported in the state, primarily in the Vidarbha region.
The Congress MP used the farmers’ deaths to mount an attack on the Centre, accusing it of callousness and gross indifference to their plight. He said that 767 families have been devastated and shattered, but the government remains unmoved.
“Is this just a statistic? No. These are 767 shattered homes. 767 families that will never recover. And the government? Silent. Watching with indifference,” he asked on X.
Rahul further said the farmers are sinking deeper into debt every day, but the government continues to look away. Their plight remains ignored while there is no government assurance or promise on the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for agricultural products.
BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya was quick to counter Rahul’s charge with facts and figures of farmers’ suicides, when the state was ruled by Congress-led governments in the past.
Amit Malviya said the Congress leader must think before blurting out baseless charges. He said that Rahul must look at the utter failures and misgovernance of the Congress-NCP governments, which saw a spate of farmer deaths during their reign.
Sharing details of farmers’ deaths, Amit Malviya stated that more than 55,000 deaths took place in the 15-year rule of the Congress-NCP government and asked, ‘Who was accountable for this?’
The graph shared by him, compiled with data gathered from NCRB and P. Sainath, shared details of ‘mass suicides’ in different government tenures, starting from 1999 to 2014.
“From 1999-2004, about 16,512 farmers committed suicide while from 2004-2009, about 20,566 farmers committed suicide while from 2009 to 2014, 18,850 farmers killed themselves,” it pointed out.
Notably, the Vidarbha region in Maharashtra has gained infamy over the years because of an abnormally high number of suicides by farmers. For decades now, the region has been hogging headlines over sorry state of affairs for the farming community.
Rahul Gandhi, further escalating his attack on the Centre, said that farmers’ demand for loan waivers remains ignored, but the Modi government continues to give big loans to corporates and billionaires.
“Modi ji promised to double farmers’ income – today, the reality is that the lives of those who feed the nation are being cut in half. This system is killing the farmers,” Congress MP claimed.
Giving a firm retort, Amit Malviya said that the politics of counting the dead looks repulsive, but it’s important to show Rahul Gandhi and Congress the mirror.
National
‘Dedicate it to bright future of India’s youth, their aspirations’: PM Modi on receiving Ghana’s top national honour

pm modi
Accra, July 3: After receiving the ‘Officer of the Order of the Star of Ghana’, the country’s national honour by Ghana President John Dramani Mahama, Prime Minister Narendra Modi dedicated the honour to the “bright future of Indian youth, their aspirations, India’s rich cultural diversity and the historical ties between India and Ghana”.
The Prime Minister also thanked the people and the government of Ghana for conferring the country’s highest award to him.
Taking to social media platform X, PM Modi said: “”I thank the people and Government of Ghana for conferring ‘The Officer of the Order of the Star of Ghana’ upon me. This honour is dedicated to the bright future of our youth, their aspirations, our rich cultural diversity and the historical ties between India and Ghana. This honour is also a responsibility; to keep working towards stronger India-Ghana friendship. India will always stand with the people of Ghana and continue to contribute as a trusted friend and development partner.”
Prime Minister Modi received Ghana’s highest national honour in recognition of his “distinguished statesmanship and influential global leadership”.
“Honoured to be conferred with ‘The Officer of the Order of the Star of Ghana’,” the Prime Minister said in an X post.
“A testament to the deep and long standing India-Ghana ties. President @JDMahama conferred upon PM @narendramodi ‘The Officer of the Order of the Star of Ghana’, the national award of Ghana dedicated the award to the 1.4 billion people of India and the historic and deep rooted India-Ghana relations. He thanked the government and people of Ghana for this exceptional honour,” Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said in a post on X.
“Fitting that PM @narendramodi has been conferred with Ghana’s national honour — the ‘Officer of the Order of the Star of Ghana’. It is a recognition of his steadfast efforts in strengthening the voice of the Global South. Also a testament to our cooperation and friendship with Ghana,” EAM Jaishankar wrote in a post on X.
Accepting the award on behalf of 1.4 billion Indians, Prime Minister Modi dedicated the honour to the aspirations of the youth of India, its cultural traditions and diversity, and to the historical ties between Ghana and India, the MEA said in an official statement.
The Prime Minister thanked the people and government of Ghana for this special gesture.
Noting that the shared democratic values and traditions of the two countries would continue to nurture the partnership, Prime Minister Modi said that the award further deepens the friendship between the two countries and places new responsibility on him to embrace and advance bilateral ties, the MEA statement noted.
The Prime Minister affirmed he was confident that his historic state visit to Ghana would impart a new momentum to India-Ghana ties.
Earlier, PM Modi held wide-ranging talks with President Mahama, after which India and Ghana elevated their ties to the level of a comprehensive partnership.
The Prime Minister is in Ghana on the first leg of his five-nation tour.
It is the first Prime Ministerial visit from India to Ghana in three decades.
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