Business
Goldman Sachs says Paytm’s current share price is a compelling entry point, ICICI Securities issue Buy rating

Paytm continues to get the confidence of top brokerages, who are bullish about the companys “immense growth potential”. Goldman Sachs pointed out the strong growth potential for Paytms lending business, saying the firm will hit $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22.
Analysts believe Paytm’s ESOP costs will gradually reduce and are currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally ICICI Securities report said that by FY26, Paytm’s monthly transacting users are likely to double
Paytm, India’s leading digital payments and financial services, continues to get ‘Buy’ calls from top brokerages. After Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Dolat Capital, ICICI Securities has also issued a Buy rating for Paytm.
Goldman Sachs had given Paytm a Buy rating, with a target price of Rs 460 on February 7. On Monday, the investment bank reiterated its Buy rating, pointing out key notes for investors. The report said that “the current share price offers a compelling entry point into India’s largest and amongst the fastest growing fintech platforms”.
ICICI Securities has now initiated coverage for Paytm and highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), giving a “Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,362.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that Paytm continues to gain market share across both UPI and non-UPI payments, besides strong growth in lending business. It said Paytm’s net payments take rate or spreads have, defined as revenue less payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) have been improving.
“Paytm’s net payments take rate (or spreads, defined as revenue less payment processing charges as a proportion of GMV) have been improving. From 8 bps in 3QFY22, we forecast spreads to widen to 11 bps by FY26E as a result of Paytm’s scale benefits; increasing share of UPI for wallet money addition; rising share of wallet for online payments (vs in-store, which have zero MDR); and rising share of device rental revenues,” the brokerage noted.
Paytm’s ESOP costs to gradually reduce, currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally.
Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) costs will reduce gradually and is currently at par with other listed tech companies in India as well as globally.
“We forecast ESOP charge for Paytm to be highest (at Rs 3.9 billion per quarter) for first two years (when the first tranche vests, per Paytm), and then gradually reduce over the next three years. Paytm also has about 15 million un-granted options and per our estimate, the total share count could increase by 46 million (or 7 per cent of current outstanding), if all options were to be vested/granted,” said the Goldman Sachs note.
“We note that as a proportion of total operating expenses, Paytm’s ESOP cost is not significantly different vs other global platforms such as Airbnb and DoorDash, as well as recently listed India internet peers such as Zomato and PB Fintech.”
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities in its note called out Paytm’s immense growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), buoyed by its leadership position in India’s digital payments ecosystem.
The brokerage said Paytm’s digital payments business has the potential to grow strongly in future, reflecting its “sizeable two-sided digital ecosystem with proven leadership in payments”.
“Paytm is well ahead in the race of digitisation, building a robust full stack technology suite integrated across the ecosystem with distinct features, high success rates, easy user interface, and customer convenience. It has an early mover advantage in rolling out wallet, FASTag, and is ahead of the curve in (skill based) online gaming, too,” said the note by ICICI Securities.
During the October-December quarter, the company saw its revenues jump by 89 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1,456 crore, EBITDA losses (before ESOP expense) came down to Rs 393 crore from Rs 488 crore during the same quarter in the previous year.
In its latest filing with the stock exchange, Paytm had shared its highest ever growth in monthly transacting users to 68.9 million users. Now, it seems analysts are bullish about this growth momentum to continue. ICICI Securities highlighted that Paytm’s monthly transacting user base (MTUs) is likely to double over FY22-26E to more than 120 million.
Paytm had said that in Q3 FY 22, its merchant payments-led GMV stood at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast that Paytm’s merchant GMV would grow at 36 per cent CAGR over FY22-26E to reach Rs 30 trillion and within this, MDR linked GMV is estimated to grow at more than 25 per cent.
The brokerage noted that Paytm’s contribution margin has potential to further improve 40 per cent-46 per cent by FY24E/FY26E.
“Aided by this contribution margin, there is some visibility of EBITDA getting into positive territory post FY26E. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding non-cash ESOP charges) will turn positive by FY26,” it added.
Both Goldman Sachs and ICICI Securities believe that Paytm’s lending business, in which it partners financial institutions to provide loans on its platform, has the potential to grow rapidly in the medium term.
Goldman Sachs said: “We believe Paytm will be able to continue to scale its lending portfolio, and forecast $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22. Paytm has continued to add new partners for its lending products over the last few quarters, suggesting to us that lenders are finding value in this partnership.”
Paytm’s lending business witnessed record growth in January 2022, maintaining the positive trend witnessed in the Q3 FY 22 earnings. Last month, Paytm registered 1.9 million loan disbursals, marking a y-o-y growth of 331 per cent; aggregating to a total value of Rs 921 crore (y-o-y growth of 334%). This also included a staggering growth in its Buy Now, Pay Later product – Paytm Postpaid.
“For Paytm’s BNPL product, 30 per cent + of the monthly sign-ups (Dec ’21 quarter) were new-to-credit customers, helping expand the credit base for Paytm’s financial partners. Per Paytm, performance of the company’s loan portfolio has resulted in higher confidence from lenders to increase the scale of this business,” it added.
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities also shared an optimistic outlook about Paytm’s lending business, estimating 18-19 million consumers (15 per cent of MTUs), and an increasing number of merchants to avail lending products through Paytm platform by FY26E.
Sharing a medium-term outlook, it estimated the total lending business revenue to grow at 61 per cent over FY22-26E.
Business
Stock market ends lower as investors take cautious approach on US tariffs

Mumbai, April 3: The Indian stock market closed lower on Thursday as investors remained cautious following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs.
The new tariff structure includes a 10 per cent tax on all US imports, with higher tariffs on countries with a trade surplus. India will now face a 27 per cent tariff.
The Sensex fell 322.08 points, or 0.42 per cent, to close at 76,295.36. During the day, the index fluctuated between an intraday high of 76,493.74 and a low of 75,807.55.
The Nifty also ended lower, down 82.25 points, or 0.35 per cent, at 23,250.10.
“The primary catalyst for today’s decline was deteriorating global sentiment, exacerbated by US President Trump’s announcement of a 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian imports, which prompted a cautious stance among investors,” said Sundar Kewat of Ashika Institutional Equity.
Tech stocks led the losses, with TCS, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, and Tata Motors declining by up to 4.02 per cent.
On the other hand, Power Grid Corporation, Sun Pharma, Ultratech Cement, NTPC, and Asian Paints were among the top gainers, rising as much as 4.57 per cent.
The IT sector was the worst performer, with the Nifty IT index dropping 4.21 per cent, dragged down by Persistent Systems, Coforge, TCS, and Mphasis. Auto, oil & gas, and realty stocks also struggled.
However, pharma stocks performed well, with the Nifty Pharma index climbing 2.25 per cent. Banking, healthcare, FMCG, and consumer durables stocks also saw gains, rising up to 1.94 per cent.
Despite the overall market decline, smallcap stocks outperformed, as the Nifty Smallcap100 index gained 0.58 per cent.
Market analysts stated that investors are expected to remain watchful of global developments and their impact on market trends.
“The domestic market initially showed signs of recovery but ended with modest losses after the announcement of a relatively lower 26 per cent tariff on US imports,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Limited.
“Although the tariff presents short-term challenges, India’s economic resilience and bilateral trade agreement may help mitigate the overall impact,” he stated.
The rupee ended flat but traded in a volatile range between 85.75 and 85.35, as markets reacted to Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy.
Business
India’s GDP growth projected at 6.7 pc for FY26, cyclical recovery expected

New Delhi, April 3: India’s economy is set to grow at 6.7 per cent in FY26, driven by a cyclical recovery and steady market performance, a new report said on Thursday.
Cyclical recovery refers to the phase in an economic cycle that follows a recession or slowdown, during which economic activity, consumer spending, and business investments start to rise.
Over the past five years, India has witnessed strong earnings growth, with the NIFTY index recording a 20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to a Lighthouse Canton report.
As the economy moves forward, the next phase of growth will depend on key factors such as government capital expenditure, tax benefits for the middle class, and improved consumer demand.
These elements are expected to support earnings recovery and market confidence in 2025, the report said.
India’s investment-led expansion has played a crucial role in economic growth. While the government continues to focus on fiscal discipline, private sector investments are expected to gain momentum, contributing to long-term stability.
The Reserve Bank of India’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut — the first in nearly five years — signals a supportive stance for economic growth.
“India’s economic engine continues to offer long-term promise, however, 2025 will require greater selectivity and discipline,” said Sumegh Bhatia, Managing Director and CEO of Lighthouse Canton in India.
He added that the investors will need to navigate shifting cycles, watch for inflection points in earnings, and remain anchored in fundamentals as the global order undergoes further transformation.
On the global front, market trends and currency movements will influence India’s financial landscape, as per the report.
The strength of the US dollar and rising global trade activity are shaping investment flows, while gold remains a preferred asset due to its resilience amid global uncertainties.
“Additionally, crude oil prices are expected to remain stable, benefiting India’s import-dependent economy,” the report noted.
In 2025, the focus remains on sustainable growth, disciplined market strategies, and long-term investment opportunities, it added.
Business
Institutional investments in Indian real estate up 31 pc at $1.3 billion in Q1

New Delhi, April 3: Institutional investments in India’s real estate sector saw a strong start to 2025, with total inflows reaching $1.3 billion in the first quarter, a new report said on Thursday.
This marks a 31 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, driven largely by domestic investors, according to the report by Colliers India.
Domestic investments played a significant role in this growth, contributing $0.8 billion, which is a 75 per cent rise on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
These investments were mainly directed toward industrial, warehousing and office spaces. The office segment alone attracted $0.4 billion, making up one-third of the total investments.
Hyderabad emerged as a key market in this segment, drawing more than half of the office-related inflows. The residential sector also witnessed a remarkable rise, with investments almost tripling compared to the first quarter of 2024.
The segment attracted $0.3 billion, accounting for 23 per cent of total investments, a figure comparable to the industrial and warehousing sector.
Interestingly, foreign investors led the residential investment surge, contributing over half of the total inflows in this segment.
The industrial and warehousing sector continued its strong performance from 2024, recording over $0.3 billion in investments during the first quarter of 2025.
This represents a 73 per cent increase YoY, supported by rising investor confidence.
Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as India’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reaching 58.1 in March 2025 — the highest level since mid-2024 — have reinforced optimism in this sector.
The robust demand, higher production, and improved business confidence have all contributed to this growth, the report said.
Mumbai emerged as the top investment destination, accounting for $0.3 billion, or 22 per cent of the total inflows in Q1 2025.
Bengaluru followed with a 20 per cent share, while Hyderabad secured 18 per cent of the investments, according to the report.
In Mumbai, mixed-use assets attracted over half of the total inflows, whereas Bengaluru saw a majority of investments in the residential sector.
City-wise data show a massive 841 per cent rise in investments in Mumbai, compared to Q1 2024, while Delhi-NCR also experienced significant growth with a 145 per cent increase.
The report also found that Bengaluru saw a steady 26 per cent rise in investments during the same period.
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