Business
Goldman Sachs says Paytm’s current share price is a compelling entry point, ICICI Securities issue Buy rating
Paytm continues to get the confidence of top brokerages, who are bullish about the companys “immense growth potential”. Goldman Sachs pointed out the strong growth potential for Paytms lending business, saying the firm will hit $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22.
Analysts believe Paytm’s ESOP costs will gradually reduce and are currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally ICICI Securities report said that by FY26, Paytm’s monthly transacting users are likely to double
Paytm, India’s leading digital payments and financial services, continues to get ‘Buy’ calls from top brokerages. After Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Dolat Capital, ICICI Securities has also issued a Buy rating for Paytm.
Goldman Sachs had given Paytm a Buy rating, with a target price of Rs 460 on February 7. On Monday, the investment bank reiterated its Buy rating, pointing out key notes for investors. The report said that “the current share price offers a compelling entry point into India’s largest and amongst the fastest growing fintech platforms”.
ICICI Securities has now initiated coverage for Paytm and highlighted the company’s strong growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), giving a “Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 1,362.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that Paytm continues to gain market share across both UPI and non-UPI payments, besides strong growth in lending business. It said Paytm’s net payments take rate or spreads have, defined as revenue less payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) have been improving.
“Paytm’s net payments take rate (or spreads, defined as revenue less payment processing charges as a proportion of GMV) have been improving. From 8 bps in 3QFY22, we forecast spreads to widen to 11 bps by FY26E as a result of Paytm’s scale benefits; increasing share of UPI for wallet money addition; rising share of wallet for online payments (vs in-store, which have zero MDR); and rising share of device rental revenues,” the brokerage noted.
Paytm’s ESOP costs to gradually reduce, currently at par with other listed tech cos in India as well as globally.
Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) costs will reduce gradually and is currently at par with other listed tech companies in India as well as globally.
“We forecast ESOP charge for Paytm to be highest (at Rs 3.9 billion per quarter) for first two years (when the first tranche vests, per Paytm), and then gradually reduce over the next three years. Paytm also has about 15 million un-granted options and per our estimate, the total share count could increase by 46 million (or 7 per cent of current outstanding), if all options were to be vested/granted,” said the Goldman Sachs note.
“We note that as a proportion of total operating expenses, Paytm’s ESOP cost is not significantly different vs other global platforms such as Airbnb and DoorDash, as well as recently listed India internet peers such as Zomato and PB Fintech.”
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities in its note called out Paytm’s immense growth potential in terms of target addressable market (TAM), buoyed by its leadership position in India’s digital payments ecosystem.
The brokerage said Paytm’s digital payments business has the potential to grow strongly in future, reflecting its “sizeable two-sided digital ecosystem with proven leadership in payments”.
“Paytm is well ahead in the race of digitisation, building a robust full stack technology suite integrated across the ecosystem with distinct features, high success rates, easy user interface, and customer convenience. It has an early mover advantage in rolling out wallet, FASTag, and is ahead of the curve in (skill based) online gaming, too,” said the note by ICICI Securities.
During the October-December quarter, the company saw its revenues jump by 89 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1,456 crore, EBITDA losses (before ESOP expense) came down to Rs 393 crore from Rs 488 crore during the same quarter in the previous year.
In its latest filing with the stock exchange, Paytm had shared its highest ever growth in monthly transacting users to 68.9 million users. Now, it seems analysts are bullish about this growth momentum to continue. ICICI Securities highlighted that Paytm’s monthly transacting user base (MTUs) is likely to double over FY22-26E to more than 120 million.
Paytm had said that in Q3 FY 22, its merchant payments-led GMV stood at Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Analysts at ICICI Securities forecast that Paytm’s merchant GMV would grow at 36 per cent CAGR over FY22-26E to reach Rs 30 trillion and within this, MDR linked GMV is estimated to grow at more than 25 per cent.
The brokerage noted that Paytm’s contribution margin has potential to further improve 40 per cent-46 per cent by FY24E/FY26E.
“Aided by this contribution margin, there is some visibility of EBITDA getting into positive territory post FY26E. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding non-cash ESOP charges) will turn positive by FY26,” it added.
Both Goldman Sachs and ICICI Securities believe that Paytm’s lending business, in which it partners financial institutions to provide loans on its platform, has the potential to grow rapidly in the medium term.
Goldman Sachs said: “We believe Paytm will be able to continue to scale its lending portfolio, and forecast $10 billion in disbursals by FY26E, vs $900 million in FY22. Paytm has continued to add new partners for its lending products over the last few quarters, suggesting to us that lenders are finding value in this partnership.”
Paytm’s lending business witnessed record growth in January 2022, maintaining the positive trend witnessed in the Q3 FY 22 earnings. Last month, Paytm registered 1.9 million loan disbursals, marking a y-o-y growth of 331 per cent; aggregating to a total value of Rs 921 crore (y-o-y growth of 334%). This also included a staggering growth in its Buy Now, Pay Later product – Paytm Postpaid.
“For Paytm’s BNPL product, 30 per cent + of the monthly sign-ups (Dec ’21 quarter) were new-to-credit customers, helping expand the credit base for Paytm’s financial partners. Per Paytm, performance of the company’s loan portfolio has resulted in higher confidence from lenders to increase the scale of this business,” it added.
Meanwhile, ICICI Securities also shared an optimistic outlook about Paytm’s lending business, estimating 18-19 million consumers (15 per cent of MTUs), and an increasing number of merchants to avail lending products through Paytm platform by FY26E.
Sharing a medium-term outlook, it estimated the total lending business revenue to grow at 61 per cent over FY22-26E.
Business
‘Its Prime Real Estate’: Anand Mahindra Expresses Awe At Grandiose Of Brabus Big Boy 1200
In the City of Dreams that is Mumbai, one of the biggest ‘dreams’ of most who live in the metropolis is to find an abode, that they can call it their own. Real estate in Mumbai is known for its sky-high pricing, with figures of Rs 10-15 crore not surprising anyone.
The Motorhome
Space is a major issue in city, given the paucity of it, in a region that encompasses millions. However, what happens when the space is not only available but also mobile? That is precisely what a ‘motorhome’.
It may not been the most commonly seen or discussed avenue in this part of the world, but in other parts of the world, particularly in the US, an RV or recreational vehicle is the way of life, either by choice or by circumstance.
Mahindra Group chairman, Anand Mahindra recently reacted to one such motorhome. In a post on X, he shared a minute-long clipping of the Brabus Big Boy 1200. This is an uber-luxe, profligate motorhome manufactured by the German automobile company Brabus.
Mahindra, while reacting to the video of a person showing around the bus said, That’s not transport. It’s prime real estate.”
And one may arguably agree with Mahindra on this. The vehicle is extravagant and has a length of 12 meters or 39.4 ft and over 30 square meters or 320 sq ft. For context, the average size of homes in city of Mumbai hovers around 400-700 sq ft.
What Are The Features Of This Motorhome?
In addition, the vehicle also has two electrically extendable slide-outs on each side. These slide-outs can extend the bedroom and saloon to a width of 4.50 meters.
In addition, the motorhome also consists of a double bed measuring 160 x 200 centimeters.
A closet is integrated into the rear wall of the vehicle.
For amusement, the vehicle also has a desk and a 43-inch 4K television. Here one could watch TV programs that have been made available on the system play games on the integrated Playstation 5 system.
In addition, one can also connect to the internet through the Starlink system.
When it comes to the vehicle, it runs on a12.8-liter six-cylinder turbodiesel engine. This engine can deliver 390 kW / 530 hp and can generate a maximum torque of 2,600 Nm.
The vehicle is priced at around USD 1.5 million or a whopping Rs 12 crore.
Business
Maha will play key role in achieving India’s $5 trillion economy goal: Minister Tatkare
Nagpur, Dec 21: Representing Maharashtra in the pre-Union Budget meeting held in Jaisalmer, Minister Aditi Tatkare on Saturday assured that Maharashtra would play a pivotal role in India’s journey towards becoming a $5 trillion economy.
She emphasised the need for special financial assistance to the state in the upcoming Union Budget.
Minister Tatkare presented Maharashtra’s vision, highlighting its strategic role in realising the Prime Minister’s goal of a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047.
Minister Tatkare outlined several critical issues and proposals for inclusion in the Union Budget. She urged the finance minister for central assistance for state Capital Investment by enhancing the allocation under the Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment.
She emphasised the need for streamlining fund disbursement timelines to provide qualifying states with a minimum one-year utilisation window.
In the wake of rapid urbanisation, Minister Tatkare called for central support to tackle the challenges faced by the state.
“Maharashtra, with urbanisation expected to surpass 50 per cent in the upcoming census, faces challenges in resource mobilisation for urban local bodies (ULBs). The state government urges support for ULBs to access long-term loans for planned urban development and infrastructure enhancement,” she said.
Under the MukhyaMantri Saur Krushi Vahini Yojana 2.0, aimed at solarising agricultural feeders, Minister Tatkare sought increased targets and funding allocations for Maharashtra.
She requested expansion of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) capacity from 500 MWh to 9,000 MWh to meet the state’s energy storage goals.
In order to further boost the modernisation of the home department, Minister Tatkare sought funds on a 60:40 basis, for projects such as digital forensic labs, mobile forensic vans, AMBIS systems, and the Cyber Security Project (Rs 837.86 crore).
She highlighted the need for funding major initiatives like Dial 112 emergency services integration and Maharashtra Police Station CCTV projects.
She urged financial support for faster case disposal through enhanced infrastructure for the judiciary.
She requested funding for constructing the Bombay High Court Complex in Bandra (East), estimated at Rs 3,750 crore.
Further, to push the implementation of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) economic master plan, Minister Tatkare proposed a special package.
The master plan is aligning with NITI Aayog’s vision to transform MMR into a national growth hub by 2030.
According to NITI Aayog, the MMR has a potential to increase its GDP to $300 billion by 2030 from the present level of $140 billion.
The Centre’s public policy think tank has asked the Maharashtra government to concentrate on seven growth drivers and attract investment of $125-135 billion from the private sector to achieve the target.
In a bid to push the state government’s ambitious plan to make Maharashtra drought-free, the state government has sought central government support to include state-funded river-linking projects like Wainganga-Nalganga and Damanganga-Godavari under the National Interlinking of Rivers Scheme.
Further, the state government appealed to the Centre to ease revenue expenditure pressures to create fiscal space for capital projects and establish a ‘Kisan Vishesh Sahayata Nidhi’ to compensate farmers affected by trade policy interventions.
The state government also appealed for the enhancement of funding for ongoing schemes like the Jal Jeevan Mission and financial assistance for disaster-affected areas.
Minister Tatkare said the comprehensive representation highlighted Maharashtra’s ambitions and challenges, ensuring the state’s priorities were well-articulated for the Union Budget deliberations.
She reiterated Maharashtra’s commitment to becoming a cornerstone of India’s economic growth and development trajectory.
Business
Domestic stock markets to end 2024 on positive note, Nifty clocks 13 pc gain
New Delhi, Dec 21: Riding on resilient economic growth, the domestic stock markets are ending 2024 on a positive note, with Nifty registering a 13 per cent gain (year-to-date) — its ninth consecutive year of positive gains, a Motilal Oswal Wealth Management report said on Saturday.
The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277 in September.
In fact, the markets navigated significant events, such several global geo-political issues, General Elections and Budget in India, and any dips were swiftly met with strong buying activity, the report mentioned.
“The year 2025 could unfold as a tale of two halves. The first half may continue to see market consolidation, while a recovery could take place in the second half,” it added.
In the last two months, the market has corrected 11 per cent from its all-time high, amid selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) due to a combination of domestic and global factors.
Going forward, the Indian markets are likely to face significant influences from a combination of global and domestic economic events.
The anticipated rate cut by the RBI in February, the ongoing trend of US rate cuts, and the expectations surrounding trade policy changes post Donald Trump taking over as US President in January will contribute to market volatility.
“Additionally, the Union Budget in February will offer important signals to the market. With a fragile global economic environment and mixed macroeconomic factors at home, the market is expected to remain in consolidation mode in the near term,” the report noted.
Earnings are expected to recover in H2 FY25, driven by increased rural spending, a buoyant wedding season, and pickup in government spending.
“We further expect earnings to gain momentum, delivering a 16 per cent CAGR over FY25-27E. We remain optimistic about the long-term trend, given the strength of corporate India’s balance sheets and the prospects for robust, profitable growth,” the report said.
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