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RBI says momentum in economic recovery to continue in FY23

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India’s economic recovery from the pandemic shock has sustained in FY22 and the momentum is expected to broadly continue through the ongoing FY23, though with risks of downside from the geopolitical shock and its spillovers, said the RBI’s Annual Report for 2021-22 released on Friday.

Despite the risks, the report said the recovery is “getting entrenched and is broadening”, besides the Union Budget for FY22 envisioned the roadmap for ‘India at 100’, with a focus on demand side measures.

The substantial increase in government capital expenditure outlay could crowd-in private investment and “propel a virtuous cycle, thereby improving aggregate demand”.

Furthermore, the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) amounting to Rs 100 lakh crore and the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) involving Rs 6 lakh crore – both targeted for completion by FY25, are also expected to give a major thrust to infrastructure spending, it added.

“The focus on supply side management through ‘process reforms’, facilitating the smoothening and simplification of processes in some sectors where government’s presence as a facilitator or regulator is necessary, would help improve the resilience of the Indian economy.”

Overall consumer and business confidence remains resilient in spite of the third wave on the back of the accelerated pace of vaccination and better prospects for economic activity.

“A full recovery in aggregate demand is, however, contingent on a turnaround in private investment. On the supply side, there is a resurgence in mining and manufacturing sectors. The services sector, which felt the brunt of the pandemic, is staging a broad-based recovery since Q2FY22.”

The report stressed upon reforms in the labour market so as to adapt to the pandemic by reskilling workers.

On financial markets in FY22, the report said that abundance of liquidity and accommodative monetary policies in major economies had pushed financial asset prices to all-time highs. The market was bolstered also by stimulus packages and easing of Covid-19-led restrictions.

The financial markets in India remained vibrant amidst easy liquidity conditions, although the severe second wave of the pandemic during April-May 2021 dampened sentiments. The equity market continued to register double digit growth in FY22 in sync with the global peers with optimism on large scale vaccine rollouts and resurgence in economic activities.

Notably, the direct participation of retail investors in equities continued to increase, with the opening of 3.46 crore Demat accounts during FY22, as against 1.42 crore opened during the previous year. During the fiscal, on an average, 28.8 lakh Demat accounts were opened every month, which is higher than 11.8 lakh per month in the previous year and 4.2 lakh Demat accounts per month in 2019-20, the annual report said.

Business

Stock market ends lower as investors take cautious approach on US tariffs

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Mumbai, April 3: The Indian stock market closed lower on Thursday as investors remained cautious following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs.

The new tariff structure includes a 10 per cent tax on all US imports, with higher tariffs on countries with a trade surplus. India will now face a 27 per cent tariff.

The Sensex fell 322.08 points, or 0.42 per cent, to close at 76,295.36. During the day, the index fluctuated between an intraday high of 76,493.74 and a low of 75,807.55.

The Nifty also ended lower, down 82.25 points, or 0.35 per cent, at 23,250.10.

“The primary catalyst for today’s decline was deteriorating global sentiment, exacerbated by US President Trump’s announcement of a 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian imports, which prompted a cautious stance among investors,” said Sundar Kewat of Ashika Institutional Equity.

Tech stocks led the losses, with TCS, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, and Tata Motors declining by up to 4.02 per cent.

On the other hand, Power Grid Corporation, Sun Pharma, Ultratech Cement, NTPC, and Asian Paints were among the top gainers, rising as much as 4.57 per cent.

The IT sector was the worst performer, with the Nifty IT index dropping 4.21 per cent, dragged down by Persistent Systems, Coforge, TCS, and Mphasis. Auto, oil & gas, and realty stocks also struggled.

However, pharma stocks performed well, with the Nifty Pharma index climbing 2.25 per cent. Banking, healthcare, FMCG, and consumer durables stocks also saw gains, rising up to 1.94 per cent.

Despite the overall market decline, smallcap stocks outperformed, as the Nifty Smallcap100 index gained 0.58 per cent.

Market analysts stated that investors are expected to remain watchful of global developments and their impact on market trends.

“The domestic market initially showed signs of recovery but ended with modest losses after the announcement of a relatively lower 26 per cent tariff on US imports,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Limited.

“Although the tariff presents short-term challenges, India’s economic resilience and bilateral trade agreement may help mitigate the overall impact,” he stated.

The rupee ended flat but traded in a volatile range between 85.75 and 85.35, as markets reacted to Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy.

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India’s GDP growth projected at 6.7 pc for FY26, cyclical recovery expected

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New Delhi, April 3: India’s economy is set to grow at 6.7 per cent in FY26, driven by a cyclical recovery and steady market performance, a new report said on Thursday.

Cyclical recovery refers to the phase in an economic cycle that follows a recession or slowdown, during which economic activity, consumer spending, and business investments start to rise.

Over the past five years, India has witnessed strong earnings growth, with the NIFTY index recording a 20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to a Lighthouse Canton report.

As the economy moves forward, the next phase of growth will depend on key factors such as government capital expenditure, tax benefits for the middle class, and improved consumer demand.

These elements are expected to support earnings recovery and market confidence in 2025, the report said.

India’s investment-led expansion has played a crucial role in economic growth. While the government continues to focus on fiscal discipline, private sector investments are expected to gain momentum, contributing to long-term stability.

The Reserve Bank of India’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut — the first in nearly five years — signals a supportive stance for economic growth.

“India’s economic engine continues to offer long-term promise, however, 2025 will require greater selectivity and discipline,” said Sumegh Bhatia, Managing Director and CEO of Lighthouse Canton in India.

He added that the investors will need to navigate shifting cycles, watch for inflection points in earnings, and remain anchored in fundamentals as the global order undergoes further transformation.

On the global front, market trends and currency movements will influence India’s financial landscape, as per the report.

The strength of the US dollar and rising global trade activity are shaping investment flows, while gold remains a preferred asset due to its resilience amid global uncertainties.

“Additionally, crude oil prices are expected to remain stable, benefiting India’s import-dependent economy,” the report noted.

In 2025, the focus remains on sustainable growth, disciplined market strategies, and long-term investment opportunities, it added.

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Institutional investments in Indian real estate up 31 pc at $1.3 billion in Q1

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New Delhi, April 3: Institutional investments in India’s real estate sector saw a strong start to 2025, with total inflows reaching $1.3 billion in the first quarter, a new report said on Thursday.

This marks a 31 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, driven largely by domestic investors, according to the report by Colliers India.

Domestic investments played a significant role in this growth, contributing $0.8 billion, which is a 75 per cent rise on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

These investments were mainly directed toward industrial, warehousing and office spaces. The office segment alone attracted $0.4 billion, making up one-third of the total investments.

Hyderabad emerged as a key market in this segment, drawing more than half of the office-related inflows. The residential sector also witnessed a remarkable rise, with investments almost tripling compared to the first quarter of 2024.

The segment attracted $0.3 billion, accounting for 23 per cent of total investments, a figure comparable to the industrial and warehousing sector.

Interestingly, foreign investors led the residential investment surge, contributing over half of the total inflows in this segment.

The industrial and warehousing sector continued its strong performance from 2024, recording over $0.3 billion in investments during the first quarter of 2025.

This represents a 73 per cent increase YoY, supported by rising investor confidence.

Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as India’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reaching 58.1 in March 2025 — the highest level since mid-2024 — have reinforced optimism in this sector.

The robust demand, higher production, and improved business confidence have all contributed to this growth, the report said.

Mumbai emerged as the top investment destination, accounting for $0.3 billion, or 22 per cent of the total inflows in Q1 2025.

Bengaluru followed with a 20 per cent share, while Hyderabad secured 18 per cent of the investments, according to the report.

In Mumbai, mixed-use assets attracted over half of the total inflows, whereas Bengaluru saw a majority of investments in the residential sector.

City-wise data show a massive 841 per cent rise in investments in Mumbai, compared to Q1 2024, while Delhi-NCR also experienced significant growth with a 145 per cent increase.

The report also found that Bengaluru saw a steady 26 per cent rise in investments during the same period.

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