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With new lifetime highs expect heightened volatility

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Friday the 16th of June was a red-letter day for the markets in India as they made new lifetime closing highs on both the BSESENSEX and NIFTY. While the closing highs have been made, we still need about 200 points on BSESENSEX and 60 points on NIFTY to beat the intraday highs. This is a small number and could happen on just the next positive day that markets witness. Normally these happen within a day or two of the closing highs whether before or after.

BSESENSEX gained 758.95 points or 1.21 per cent to close at 63,384.58 points while NIFTY gained 262.60 points or 1.41 per cent to close at 18,826.00 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.65 per cent, 1.78 per cent and 1.88 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 2.95 per cent and closed at 28,331.32 points. Similarly, BSESMALLCAP gained 2.87 per cent and closed at 32,293.19 points.

The two MIDCAP and Smallcap sectors have been outperformers and have gained 21.1 per cent and 23.5 per cent from the lows made in March 2023. Against this the rise in BSESENSEX has been 11 per cent and 11.87 per cent in NIFTY respectively. Our markets gained on four of the five trading sessions and lost on one.

The Indian Rupee gained 53 paisa or 0.64 per cent to close at Rs 81.93 to the US Dollar. The US FED in its policy meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged in a band of 5-5.25 per cent. Dow Jones during the week gained on three of the five sessions and was up 422.34 points or 1.25 per cent to close at 34,299.12 points.

In primary market news, shares of Ikio Lighting Limited listed on the bourses on Friday (June 16). The company had tapped the capital markets with its fresh issue for Rs 350 crore and an offer for sale of 90 lakh shares in a price band of Rs 270-285. Shares listed at Rs 391 on BSE and Rs 392.50 on NSE. They closed day one at Rs 403.75, a gain of Rs 118.75 or 41.67 per cent on BSE and at Rs 403.85, a gain of Rs 118.85 or 41.70 per cent on NSE.

The week ahead sees one IPO tap the capital markets. HMA Agro Industries Limited is tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue of Rs 150 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 330 crore in a price band of Rs 555-585. The issue opens on Tuesday (June 20) and closes on Friday (June 23). The issue would raise Rs 480 crore.

HMA Agro Processors is one of India’s largest buffalo meat processors and exporter. The company has also started exporting basmati rice and frozen fish. The company has six plants spread across the Northern and Western part of India with the Haryana plant recently set up being the largest capacity and most modern processing plant anywhere in South East Asia. The plant has a capacity of 570 tons per day.

The entire product of the company is exported to over 40 countries globally. It markets its products under its own brand name. The company HMA Agro exports over 10 per cent of India’s buffalo meat exports and is currently one of the top three largest exporters doing so. The company enjoys a decent reputation amongst its customers and being a food item is highly regulated by both the exporting country and the importing country.

The idea of entering rice and fisheries is to extend the food basket and also as the buyer is the same. The company sells to wholesalers and is a B-to-B player. Further India’s exports of Rice and Buffalo meat form the top and the second topmost item of export in the Agri basket.

The company reported revenues of Rs 3,083 crore for the year ended March 2022 and a net profit of Rs 117.62 crore for the same year. The EPS for the 12 months is Rs 24.39. For the nine months ended December 2022, the company reported revenues of Rs 2,370 crore and a profit after tax of Rs 113.24 crore. The EPS on a non-annualised basis is Rs 22.96.

The Haryana plant which would effectively double the capacity of the company has started commercial operations since January 23 and the current year 23-24 would be the first full operation of the company. The PE band of the issue based on the 12 months, March 22 number is 22.76-23.99. If one were to annualise the nine months earnings for the period ended December 22, the EPS would be Rs 30.6. The resultant PE band would be 18.13-19.1.

There are two upsides that an investor putting his money in HMA Agro Industries is betting on. The first is the growth in the business with the company doubling its capacity from 2 lakh tons to 4 lakh tons. The biggest is the price differential between the price at which India exports its meat to the world and the international price of wheat earned by countries like Brazil and Australia. The difference is huge with India setting the floor at $2.85 per kg and Brazil at $4.45 per kg. The US is at a much higher $7.06. If the gap is narrowed it will increase the profitability significantly.

The company offers an investment into the meat segment which is a 100 per cent export item and highly regulated by the animal husbandry department. It offers decent returns for investors.

The FPO from Adani Enterprises and the fallout of the Hindenburg report are now over four months old. A lot of water has flown under the bridge and prices have moved. Adani Enterprises had fallen from Rs 3,500 to Rs 1,017 and are now around Rs 2,500. Significant opportunity for smart investors to make money. One thing to remember is that 3/4th of Adani’s businesses have sectoral regulators.

In an interesting milestone, MRF has become the first company in India to have its share price touch the one lakh mark. Its share price touched the 1 lakh mark for the first time on Tuesday (June 13) and closed at Rs 99,980.35 on Friday on the BSE. The market cap of the company is Rs 42,403 crore.

Markets have made their lifetime closing highs and would also do so on an intraday basis shortly. What next? There is a 3 per cent spill over which naturally and normally does happen. This would mean about 2,000 points on the BSESENSEX and 600 points on NIFTY. Markets would tend to be volatile with sharp intraday moves in both directions. The midcap and Smallcap space which have been outperformers would continue to rule the roost. The strategy for the week ahead would be to play in the midcap and Smallcap space and watch out for any signs of reversal. Even corrections at such stages in the market are swift. There would also be a retest of market highs once there is a reversal at the top. In short, elevated levels and unchartered territory is the reason for wild movement. Trade cautiously.

Business

Relief for Vodafone Idea as SC allows Centre to reconsider AGR dues issue

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New Delhi, Oct 27: In a relief for Vodafone Idea, the Supreme Court on Monday allowed the Centre to reconsider the issue of Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues worth Rs 9,450 crore to ease the burden of the loss-making telecom company. The court reasoned that this matter falls in the Union’s policy domain.

The Supreme Court noted that the decision was made keeping in mind the interest of 20 crore consumers of the telecom company.

In a landmark 2019 verdict, the Supreme Court endorsed the Centre’s definition of AGR and allowed the Centre to collect dues worth Rs 92,000 crore which came as a huge setback for telecom majors such as Vodafone and Bharti Airtel.

Vodafone’s latest petition flagged a fresh AGR demand of Rs 9,450 crore raised by the Department of Telecommunications. The petition contended that a substantial portion of the demand pertained to the pre-2017 period, which had already been settled by the Supreme Court.

Solicitor General of India Tushar Mehta told the court that “there is a huge change in circumstances” of the case because the government has infused equity in Vodafone.

“The government’s interest is public interest. There are 20 crore consumers. If this company is to suffer, it would lead to issues for consumers,” he said.

The Supreme Court noted in its order that the Centre is willing to examine the issue. “The government is also willing to reconsider and take an appropriate decision if the court permits. In the peculiar facts, we see no impediment in government reconsidering the issue. We clarify that this is a matter of policy, there is no reason as to why the Union should be prevented from doing so,” the apex court said.

AGR refers to a fee-sharing mechanism under which telecom operators must share a part of their revenue with the Centre as licensing fees and spectrum usage charges. There was a longstanding dispute between telecom companies and the Centre over the definition of AGR. While the telecom giants stressed that AGR should be based just on core services, the Centre argued it should also factor in non-telecom services provided by the telecom giants.

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US has reached a ‘substantial framework’ with China to avert tariffs: US Treasury Secretary Bessent

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Washinton, Oct 27: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that he believes the US has reached a framework agreement with China to avoid imposing an additional 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports.

“I think we’ve reached a substantial framework for the two leaders who will meet next Thursday… that tariffs will be averted,” Bessent said on Sunday to media from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where President Donald Trump arrived on Saturday for a weeklong Asia diplomacy tour.

Trump is expected to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea later this week.

Earlier, Chinese International Trade Representative Li Chenggang said the US and China had reached “preliminary consensus” on trade issues during discussions in Malaysia, according to Chinese media.

Bessent did not provide details about the framework but said on media that he anticipates the US would get “some kind of deferral” on rare-earth export controls.

The minerals have been central to trade tensions between the top global economies.

Bessent said the framework sets up Trump and Xi “to have a very productive meeting,” adding, “I think it will be fantastic for US citizens, for US farmers, and for our country in general.”

Bessent indicated that an escalation in tariffs on China is “effectively off the table” following what he described as “very good” trade talks with his Chinese counterparts.

President Trump had threatened an additional 100 per cent tariff on China from November 1 over Beijing’s efforts to impose export controls on critical rare earths, ratcheting up tensions between the US and China.

Asked about the status of those tariffs, Bessent told media on Sunday that tariff threat has “gone away” after two days of talks in Malaysia.

“We had a very good two-day meeting. I would believe that the – so it would be an extra 100 per cent from where we are now, and I believe that that is effectively off the table.”

He added, “I would expect that the threat of the 100 per cent has gone away, as has the threat of the immediate imposition of the Chinese initiating a worldwide export control regime.”

US and Chinese trade negotiators reached a “basic consensus” on how to address their “respective concerns,” Chinese state media said on Sunday, following talks between the two sides over the weekend in Kuala Lumpur.

A delegation led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with US officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jameson Greer for the talks, which come days ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump.

The two leaders are expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, though Beijing, unlike Washington, has yet to confirm the meeting.

Earlier on Sunday, Bessent said the two sides had “set the stage for the leaders’ meeting” with a “very successful framework for the leaders to discuss”.

“The two sides engaged in candid, in-depth, and constructive exchanges and consultations on major economic and trade issues of mutual concern,” the Chinese state media readout said.

It listed out those issues as including US penalties on China’s maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry, reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs, agricultural trade, and export controls – a sweeping set of frictions that have set the world’s two largest economies at loggerheads.

“Two sides reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other’s concerns. Both sides agreed to further finalise the specific details and fulfil their respective domestic approval processes,” the readout said.

Trade and tech tensions between the world’s two biggest economies have heightened in recent weeks after the US expanded its export blacklist, hitting China’s access to American high-tech, while China ramped up its own export controls on rare earth minerals.

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Indian markets open higher on positive US-China trade talks

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Mumbai, Oct 27: Indian stock markets opened on a positive note on Monday, supported by progress in trade talks between the United States and China.

Investors showed optimism after reports suggested that both countries are close to signing a deal to ease trade tensions.

The Sensex was trading at 84,450, up by 239 points or 0.28 per cent, while the Nifty stood at 25,874, gaining 79 points or 0.30 per cent.

On the weekly timeframe, the index witnessed a correction of nearly 311 points from its high, indicating heightened volatility and profit booking at higher levels.

“A breakdown below 25,670 could trigger weakness toward 25,500–25,400, while on the upside, resistance is placed at 25,950, followed by 26,000 and 26,100,” analysts said.

“Sustaining above these resistance levels will be crucial for the index to resume its upward trajectory,” they added.

Among the top performers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, and HDFC Bank, which rose up to 1.4 per cent.

On the other hand, stocks like Infosys, BEL, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards, falling up to 1.4 per cent.

Broader markets also traded in the green, with the Nifty MidCap index rising 0.46 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index up 0.23 per cent.

The rally in domestic equities came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen said on Sunday that President Trump’s proposed 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods were “off the table.”

He also mentioned that China is expected to increase soybean imports and delay restrictions on rare earth exports, easing global trade concerns.

All sectoral indices on the NSE were trading higher, with the Nifty Realty index leading the gains, up by 1 per cent.

Experts said that positive global cues and optimism around the US-China trade deal lifted market sentiment, helping Indian equities start the week on a strong note.

“Comments from the US treasury Secretary Scot Bessent that there is a “substantial framework for trade negotiations with China” indicate that a US-China trade deal is on the cards,” analysts said.

“For India, the fundamentals are also turning positive with brisk festival season sales and reports of a smart pick up in capital spending by the private sector. This long awaited trend has significant positive implications for India’s growth and stock market,” they mentioned.

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