Business
With new lifetime highs expect heightened volatility
Friday the 16th of June was a red-letter day for the markets in India as they made new lifetime closing highs on both the BSESENSEX and NIFTY. While the closing highs have been made, we still need about 200 points on BSESENSEX and 60 points on NIFTY to beat the intraday highs. This is a small number and could happen on just the next positive day that markets witness. Normally these happen within a day or two of the closing highs whether before or after.
BSESENSEX gained 758.95 points or 1.21 per cent to close at 63,384.58 points while NIFTY gained 262.60 points or 1.41 per cent to close at 18,826.00 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.65 per cent, 1.78 per cent and 1.88 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 2.95 per cent and closed at 28,331.32 points. Similarly, BSESMALLCAP gained 2.87 per cent and closed at 32,293.19 points.
The two MIDCAP and Smallcap sectors have been outperformers and have gained 21.1 per cent and 23.5 per cent from the lows made in March 2023. Against this the rise in BSESENSEX has been 11 per cent and 11.87 per cent in NIFTY respectively. Our markets gained on four of the five trading sessions and lost on one.
The Indian Rupee gained 53 paisa or 0.64 per cent to close at Rs 81.93 to the US Dollar. The US FED in its policy meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged in a band of 5-5.25 per cent. Dow Jones during the week gained on three of the five sessions and was up 422.34 points or 1.25 per cent to close at 34,299.12 points.
In primary market news, shares of Ikio Lighting Limited listed on the bourses on Friday (June 16). The company had tapped the capital markets with its fresh issue for Rs 350 crore and an offer for sale of 90 lakh shares in a price band of Rs 270-285. Shares listed at Rs 391 on BSE and Rs 392.50 on NSE. They closed day one at Rs 403.75, a gain of Rs 118.75 or 41.67 per cent on BSE and at Rs 403.85, a gain of Rs 118.85 or 41.70 per cent on NSE.
The week ahead sees one IPO tap the capital markets. HMA Agro Industries Limited is tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue of Rs 150 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 330 crore in a price band of Rs 555-585. The issue opens on Tuesday (June 20) and closes on Friday (June 23). The issue would raise Rs 480 crore.
HMA Agro Processors is one of India’s largest buffalo meat processors and exporter. The company has also started exporting basmati rice and frozen fish. The company has six plants spread across the Northern and Western part of India with the Haryana plant recently set up being the largest capacity and most modern processing plant anywhere in South East Asia. The plant has a capacity of 570 tons per day.
The entire product of the company is exported to over 40 countries globally. It markets its products under its own brand name. The company HMA Agro exports over 10 per cent of India’s buffalo meat exports and is currently one of the top three largest exporters doing so. The company enjoys a decent reputation amongst its customers and being a food item is highly regulated by both the exporting country and the importing country.
The idea of entering rice and fisheries is to extend the food basket and also as the buyer is the same. The company sells to wholesalers and is a B-to-B player. Further India’s exports of Rice and Buffalo meat form the top and the second topmost item of export in the Agri basket.
The company reported revenues of Rs 3,083 crore for the year ended March 2022 and a net profit of Rs 117.62 crore for the same year. The EPS for the 12 months is Rs 24.39. For the nine months ended December 2022, the company reported revenues of Rs 2,370 crore and a profit after tax of Rs 113.24 crore. The EPS on a non-annualised basis is Rs 22.96.
The Haryana plant which would effectively double the capacity of the company has started commercial operations since January 23 and the current year 23-24 would be the first full operation of the company. The PE band of the issue based on the 12 months, March 22 number is 22.76-23.99. If one were to annualise the nine months earnings for the period ended December 22, the EPS would be Rs 30.6. The resultant PE band would be 18.13-19.1.
There are two upsides that an investor putting his money in HMA Agro Industries is betting on. The first is the growth in the business with the company doubling its capacity from 2 lakh tons to 4 lakh tons. The biggest is the price differential between the price at which India exports its meat to the world and the international price of wheat earned by countries like Brazil and Australia. The difference is huge with India setting the floor at $2.85 per kg and Brazil at $4.45 per kg. The US is at a much higher $7.06. If the gap is narrowed it will increase the profitability significantly.
The company offers an investment into the meat segment which is a 100 per cent export item and highly regulated by the animal husbandry department. It offers decent returns for investors.
The FPO from Adani Enterprises and the fallout of the Hindenburg report are now over four months old. A lot of water has flown under the bridge and prices have moved. Adani Enterprises had fallen from Rs 3,500 to Rs 1,017 and are now around Rs 2,500. Significant opportunity for smart investors to make money. One thing to remember is that 3/4th of Adani’s businesses have sectoral regulators.
In an interesting milestone, MRF has become the first company in India to have its share price touch the one lakh mark. Its share price touched the 1 lakh mark for the first time on Tuesday (June 13) and closed at Rs 99,980.35 on Friday on the BSE. The market cap of the company is Rs 42,403 crore.
Markets have made their lifetime closing highs and would also do so on an intraday basis shortly. What next? There is a 3 per cent spill over which naturally and normally does happen. This would mean about 2,000 points on the BSESENSEX and 600 points on NIFTY. Markets would tend to be volatile with sharp intraday moves in both directions. The midcap and Smallcap space which have been outperformers would continue to rule the roost. The strategy for the week ahead would be to play in the midcap and Smallcap space and watch out for any signs of reversal. Even corrections at such stages in the market are swift. There would also be a retest of market highs once there is a reversal at the top. In short, elevated levels and unchartered territory is the reason for wild movement. Trade cautiously.
Business
Stock market cheers India-US trade deal, Sensex rallies over 2,400 points

Mumbai, Feb 3: The Indian equity markets surged sharply by around 3 per cent early on Tuesday with broad-based buying across sectors, buoyed by the announcement of the India-US trade deal.
As of 9.25 am, Sensex added 2,421 points, or 2.97 per cent, to reach 84,088, and Nifty gained 741 points, or 2.96 per cent to settle at 25,829.
India and United States have agreed to a trade agreement under which reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will be slashed to 18 per cent from 25 per cent, and the additional 25 per cent duty on purchases of Russian crude oil will be eliminated. The trade deal will be “effective immediately”, President Donald Trump said, following a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi late on Monday, offering immediate tariff relief for India.
Main broad-cap indices posted strong gains, as the Nifty Midcap 100 surged 3.10 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 3.25 per cent.
All sectoral indices were showed huge gains with realty, auto, consumer durables and IT being the major gainers, up 4.47 per cent, 3.78 per cent, 3.69 per cent and 3.04 per cent, respectively.
At 18 per cent, India’s tariff rate is now lower than that of several major export-oriented Asian economies. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Vietnam face tariffs of 20 per cent, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Pakistan face tariffs of 19 per cent.
Immediate support for Nifty lies at 25,600-25,800 zone, while resistance is anchored at 26,200–26,350 zone, market watchers said.
“The dramatic announcement of the long-awaited US-India trade deal and the US decision to cut tariffs on India from 50 per cent to 18 per cent is a game changer for the Indian economy and stock markets as its delay was the single important factor weighing on the markets,” an analyst said.
According to market watchers, India’s growth rate will rise to around 7.5 per cent in FY27, assisted by higher exports to the US from the deal, and corporate earnings already on revival could accelerate to around 16 per cent to 18 per cent in FY27.
Analysts also said that the rupee will rebound sharply, adding that the combination of US-India trade deal, the EU-India trade deal and the growth-oriented Budget will boost the market sentiments. The positive sentiment could trigger immediate foreign capital inflows, potentially turning India’s Balance of Payments (BoP) position.
Large caps including banking leaders, non-banking financials, telecom, capital goods and IT, which are trading the favourites of FII can see huge inflows, market watchers said.
In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index gained 0.38 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.93 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei surged 3.23 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.11 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi surged 5.04 per cent.
The US markets ended largely in the green in the last trading session as Nasdaq gained 0.56 per cent. The S&P 500 advanced 0.54 per cent, and the Dow added 1.05 per cent.
On February 2, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 1,832 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 2,446 crore.
Business
Gold, silver continue to decline as CME margin requirements hike set to take effect

Mumbai, Feb 2: Gold and silver extended their decline on Monday, as hike in margin requirements are set to take effect on Chicago Merchantile Exchange (CME) in the US.
MCX gold February futures fell 1.77 per cent to Rs 1,45,132 per 10 grams on an intra-day basis. Meanwhile MCX silver March futures dipped 6.88 per cent to Rs 2,47,386 per kg.
Analysts said the free fall of gold and silver from their record highs started after the US President Donald Trump selected Kevin Warsh as the next US Fed Chairman. Investors reacted negatively because Warsh is considered more aggressive on interest-rate policy than earlier chairs, they added.
The decline was further supported by a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields, and upbeat US inflation data (PPI and core PPI). As import duty was kept unchanged in the Union Budget the domestic premium in bullion suffered, said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.
In international markets silver could find support near $68, while gold may hold around $4,510 this week, analysts forecasted. Spot gold recovered considerably after dropping 4 per cent in early morning session on Monday, during the Asian trading hours.
“Gold has support at Rs 1,39,650 to Rs 1,36,310 zone while resistance at Rs 1,48,850 and Rs 1,50,950. Silver has support at Rs 2,48,810 and Rs 2,37,170 while resistance at Rs 2,78,810 and Rs 2,95,470,” the analyst said.
According to them, the broader market trend for COMEX gold remains constructive, even as the recent vertical rally pushed momentum indicators into overbought territory, leading to heat-driven profit booking and mild price digestion from elevated levels.
Structural supply deficits and steady industrial demand continue to underpin the bullish bias in silver. Persistent safe-haven demand, steady central-bank accumulation, and expectations of accommodative global monetary conditions continue to underpin prices of yellow metal.
A recent report from WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund said that investors should trim precious metals allocation back to a safe‑haven allocation level, especially on the silver as its valuation had reached the most over-extended level relative to historical periods.
Business
New excise duty, health cess on cigarettes, pan masala to begin from Feb 1

New Delhi, Jan 31: From February 1, the government is bringing a new tax structure for cigarettes, tobacco products and pan masala, aiming to tighten regulation and keep tax levels high on these so-called ‘sin goods’.
An additional excise duty will now be charged on cigarettes and tobacco products, along with a new health and national security cess on pan masala.
These new levies will replace the earlier system under which these products were taxed at 28 per cent GST along with a compensation cess that has been in place since the launch of GST in July 2017.
The government is also introducing a new MRP-based valuation system for several tobacco products such as chewing tobacco, filter khaini, jarda scented tobacco and gutkha.
Under this system, GST will be calculated based on the retail price printed on the packet, instead of factory value.
This move is expected to reduce tax evasion and improve revenue collection. Pan masala manufacturers will now have to take fresh registration under the new health and national security cess law starting February 1.
They will also be required to install CCTV cameras that cover all packing machines and store the video recordings for at least two years.
In addition, companies must inform excise authorities about the number of machines in their factories and their production capacity.
If any machine remains non-functional for 15 days in a row, manufacturers will be allowed to claim a reduction in excise duty for that period.
Even after the new changes, the government has ensured that the overall tax burden on pan masala, including 40 per cent GST, will remain around the current level of 88 per cent.
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