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Unheard of Rs 3.3 lakh Cr bank deposit bulge in Diwali week slumped in a fortnight

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Indian-Rupee

State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department has highlighted the curious case of Rs 3.3 lakh crore deposit bulge and the Rs 2.7 lakh crore deposit slump in alternate fortnights.

As per the provisional data released by RBI for the fortnight ended November 19, ASCB’s aggregate deposits have slumped by Rs 2.7 lakh crore during the fortnight. The slump in deposits follows an abrupt increase by Rs 3.3 lakh crore during the previous fortnight ended November 5. Interestingly, such growth in deposits was around 36 per cent of the incremental deposit growth at that point of time. This increase in deposits and subsequent slump is quite a contrarian trend, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

While it may be exactly difficult to decipher the increase and subsequent decline, it does pose questions on liquidity management/financial stability or a shift in behavioural trend in customer payment habits through digitisation and hence lower currency leakage and concomitant deposit bulge or both.

First, the fortnightly increase of Rs 3.3 lakh crore. This has never happened during a Diwali week as there is always a currency leakage and concomitant deposit decline. This is also the fifth largest increase in any fortnight in the last 24 years. Such huge incremental addition has happened only a few times, with higher deposits accretion (than the current year’s fortnight) occurring during the fortnight ended November 25, 2016 (Rs 4.16 lakh crore), September 30, 2016 (Rs 3.55 lakh crore), March 29, 2019 (Rs 3.46 lakh crore) and April 1, 2016 (Rs 3.41 lakh crore). However, the increase in November 2016 was because of demonetisation and the March and April fortnightly increases could be attributed to seasonal year-end bulge. In this respect, the current deposit bulge requires a detailed explanation, the report said.

Next, the fortnightly deposit slump in the subsequent fortnight. ‘We believe that it is possible that there was a large influx of deposits into the banking system for the fortnight ended November 5, 2021 in anticipation of a build up in rally in stock markets post primary issuances of new age companies and others. However, when such a rally did not materialise, the bulge in banking deposits slumped and almost 80 per cent of deposit bulge was withdrawn, the report said.

Interestingly, the amount of money parked in fixed reverse repo window jumped from Rs 0.45 lakh crore on October 19 to Rs 2.4 lakh crore on November 17, 2021 and has remained at such level till December 1. However, it must be noted that the significant jump in digital transactions has also resulted in lower usage of cash in the current fiscal and ideally could also have resulted in a surge in deposits for the Diwali week.

Meanwhile, if we look at the quarterly ASCB data, though the deposits growth remains same in Q2 (2.6 per cent) as compared to Q1 (2.5 per cent), sequentially at all-India level, apart from Metro regions, the deposits growth has decelerated in Q2 as compared to Q1, particularly in rural areas indicating that the current economic recovery is mostly urban led and rural economy is still recouping. Meanwhile, ASCB’s credit has increased by Rs 1.18 lakh crore (7.1 per cent YoY) during the fortnight ended November 5, which may be due to festive demands.

Business

Indian Railways launches online excess luggage booking with ticket reservations

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New Delhi, July 31: Passengers travelling by train can now book and pay for excess luggage online while reserving their tickets, as Indian Railways on Friday rolled out a new digital facility aimed at making the travel process more convenient.

The service integrates excess luggage booking with the online ticket reservation system, eliminating the need for passengers to visit parcel offices separately before boarding.

Previously, travellers carrying baggage beyond the free allowance had to complete a separate booking process at railway parcel counters, often leading to additional paperwork and long queues.

The online excess luggage booking facility is available only to passengers holding confirmed tickets and is restricted to travel classes where carrying luggage beyond the free allowance is permitted upon payment of the prescribed charges.

Passengers travelling in AC First Class, AC 2-Tier, First Class, Sleeper Class and Second Class can avail of the service.

However, those travelling in AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car will not be eligible, as the maximum permissible baggage limit in these classes is the same as the free luggage allowance.

Under the existing baggage rules, AC First Class passengers are entitled to carry up to 70 kg free of charge and can carry a maximum of 150 kg after paying excess luggage charges.

Passengers in AC 2-Tier and First Class are allowed 50 kg free, with a maximum permissible limit of 100 kg.

Sleeper Class passengers can carry 40 kg free and up to 80 kg in total, while Second Class passengers have a free allowance of 35 kg and a maximum limit of 70 kg.

In contrast, AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car passengers can carry up to 40 kg, which also serves as the maximum permissible limit.

Indian Railways has clarified that passengers carrying baggage beyond the free allowance but within the prescribed maximum limits will be required to pay applicable excess luggage charges.

Apart from weight restrictions, the Railways also enforces size limits for luggage carried inside passenger coaches.

Trunks, suitcases and boxes measuring up to 100 cm × 60 cm × 25 cm are generally permitted inside compartments.

However, passengers travelling in AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car coaches must adhere to a smaller size limit of 55 cm × 45 cm × 22.5 cm.

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IBM partners Sarvam to strengthen India’s sovereign AI ecosystem

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New Delhi, July 31: IBM and homegrown AI startup Sarvam have partnered to accelerate the development and adoption of sovereign artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in India, with a focus on government agencies, public sector organisations and regulated enterprises, according to a statement on Friday.

Under the partnership, the two companies will jointly demonstrate and pilot sovereign AI technologies for use cases such as citizen services, grievance redressal, document processing and administrative workflows.

The collaboration combines IBM Sovereign Core, the company’s sovereign-by-design AI software platform, with Sarvam’s India-first sovereign AI stack, which includes reasoning models and multilingual language and voice AI developed and trained in India.

The combined offering is designed to help organisations deploy AI while maintaining greater control over data, governance, security and compliance in line with India’s regulatory and operational requirements.

In addition, the initiative aims to accelerate sovereign AI adoption through innovation pilots, solution accelerators, technical advisory services and knowledge-sharing programmes.

The IBM GovTech AI Innovation Center in Lucknow will serve as a joint incubation and demonstration hub where government departments, public sector organisations and enterprises can evaluate practical sovereign AI applications and address technical, operational and governance requirements before scaling deployments.

“Sovereign AI is not simply about where AI runs. It is about giving organisations control over how AI is governed, deployed and operated,” said Sriram Raghavan, General Manager, IBM Software, India and Software Innovation Lab.

He said IBM Sovereign Core provides an enterprise-grade platform designed to help governments and regulated enterprises scale AI while addressing governance, security and compliance requirements.

Pratyush Kumar, Co-Founder of Sarvam, said sovereign AI must work within the systems governments and enterprises already rely on while supporting large-scale operations.

“Our stack puts models, voice and language technologies on top of it, so a citizen can access a benefit or resolve a grievance in their own language, on a phone call,” Kumar said.

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Markets open subdued as IT, pharma stocks offset banking weakness

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Mumbai, July 30: Domestic equity benchmarks opened on a subdued note on Thursday amid mixed global cues, as gains in information technology and pharma stocks were offset by weakness in banking and realty shares.

Sensex opened at 77,638.86, down 15.74 points or 0.02 per cent, while Nifty opened at 24,249.55, lower by 0.65 points.

Among the sectoral indices, Nifty IT was the top gainer, rising 1.39 per cent, followed by Nifty Pharma, Nifty Healthcare, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom, and Nifty Auto, which gained up to 0.54 per cent.

In contrast, Nifty Realty declined 0.80 per cent, followed by Nifty Chemicals, which was down 0.45 per cent, while Nifty Private Bank fell 0.42 per cent.

According to market experts, the Indian market continues to indicate a potential breakout trend, although several global headwinds are limiting the upside momentum.

“The spike in Brent crude prices to near $90 following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict is a strong headwind for markets,” they said.

Experts noted that the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, though widely expected, turned out to be negative for equities as the decision was split 9-3, with three members voting for a rate hike to curb inflation.

However, they believe the Indian market could remain relatively resilient.

Weakness in global chip stocks has prompted foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to shift allocations, with FPIs turning net buyers in Indian equities so far in July.

Brent crude — the international oil benchmark — declined 1.75 per cent to $89.15 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.47 per cent to $83.21 per barrel.

Asian stocks traded mixed. Major indices such as the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and KOSPI were up 0.72 per cent, down 0.02 per cent, and lower by 0.57 per cent, respectively.

US stocks ended lower, with the S&P 500 declining 1.52 per cent, while the Nasdaq ended down 1.74 per cent.

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