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Unheard of Rs 3.3 lakh Cr bank deposit bulge in Diwali week slumped in a fortnight

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Indian-Rupee

State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department has highlighted the curious case of Rs 3.3 lakh crore deposit bulge and the Rs 2.7 lakh crore deposit slump in alternate fortnights.

As per the provisional data released by RBI for the fortnight ended November 19, ASCB’s aggregate deposits have slumped by Rs 2.7 lakh crore during the fortnight. The slump in deposits follows an abrupt increase by Rs 3.3 lakh crore during the previous fortnight ended November 5. Interestingly, such growth in deposits was around 36 per cent of the incremental deposit growth at that point of time. This increase in deposits and subsequent slump is quite a contrarian trend, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

While it may be exactly difficult to decipher the increase and subsequent decline, it does pose questions on liquidity management/financial stability or a shift in behavioural trend in customer payment habits through digitisation and hence lower currency leakage and concomitant deposit bulge or both.

First, the fortnightly increase of Rs 3.3 lakh crore. This has never happened during a Diwali week as there is always a currency leakage and concomitant deposit decline. This is also the fifth largest increase in any fortnight in the last 24 years. Such huge incremental addition has happened only a few times, with higher deposits accretion (than the current year’s fortnight) occurring during the fortnight ended November 25, 2016 (Rs 4.16 lakh crore), September 30, 2016 (Rs 3.55 lakh crore), March 29, 2019 (Rs 3.46 lakh crore) and April 1, 2016 (Rs 3.41 lakh crore). However, the increase in November 2016 was because of demonetisation and the March and April fortnightly increases could be attributed to seasonal year-end bulge. In this respect, the current deposit bulge requires a detailed explanation, the report said.

Next, the fortnightly deposit slump in the subsequent fortnight. ‘We believe that it is possible that there was a large influx of deposits into the banking system for the fortnight ended November 5, 2021 in anticipation of a build up in rally in stock markets post primary issuances of new age companies and others. However, when such a rally did not materialise, the bulge in banking deposits slumped and almost 80 per cent of deposit bulge was withdrawn, the report said.

Interestingly, the amount of money parked in fixed reverse repo window jumped from Rs 0.45 lakh crore on October 19 to Rs 2.4 lakh crore on November 17, 2021 and has remained at such level till December 1. However, it must be noted that the significant jump in digital transactions has also resulted in lower usage of cash in the current fiscal and ideally could also have resulted in a surge in deposits for the Diwali week.

Meanwhile, if we look at the quarterly ASCB data, though the deposits growth remains same in Q2 (2.6 per cent) as compared to Q1 (2.5 per cent), sequentially at all-India level, apart from Metro regions, the deposits growth has decelerated in Q2 as compared to Q1, particularly in rural areas indicating that the current economic recovery is mostly urban led and rural economy is still recouping. Meanwhile, ASCB’s credit has increased by Rs 1.18 lakh crore (7.1 per cent YoY) during the fortnight ended November 5, which may be due to festive demands.

Business

SIP inflows hit record Rs 32,297 crore in August, gold ETF inflows jump 67 pc to Rs 2,596.70 crore: AMFI

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New Delhi, Sep 10: Inflows into gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) surged nearly 67 per cent in August 2026 as investors increased their exposure to the precious metal amid a sharp rise in domestic gold prices, according to the latest data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) on Thursday.

Gold ETFs received net inflows of Rs 2,596.70 crore in August, compared with Rs 1,559 crore in July. The category recorded positive inflows for the third consecutive month, reflecting continued investor interest in gold-linked investment products.

The increase in gold ETF investments came as domestic gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rose 7.7 per cent during August, making the precious metal one of the key investment avenues during the month.

Silver ETFs also continued to attract investors, recording net inflows of Rs 1,270.63 crore in August.

In the equity mutual fund segment, actively managed equity schemes saw net inflows rise to Rs 29,328.62 crore in August from Rs 24,697.39 crore in July, indicating sustained investor participation despite fluctuations in the broader market.

Overall, the mutual fund industry recorded net inflows of Rs 41,353.60 crore in August, significantly lower than the Rs 2.35 lakh crore recorded in July. The sharp month-on-month decline was largely influenced by flows in the debt fund segment.

Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions, however, continued to strengthen and reached a record high of Rs 32,297 crore in August, compared with Rs 31,961 crore in July. The steady rise in SIP contributions highlights continued retail investor participation in mutual funds.

Debt funds registered a net outflow of Rs 8,127.32 crore in August, reversing from a net inflow of Rs 1.87 lakh crore in July.

Meanwhile, the mutual fund SIP inflows increased marginally month-on-month to a record high of Rs 32,297 crore in August, compared with Rs 31,961 crore in July. On a year-on-year basis, SIP inflows rose 14 per cent from Rs 28,265 crore recorded in August 2025.

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Sugar prices curb: Maharashtra sugarcane crushing season set to begin on Oct 15​

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Mumbai, Sep 9: Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis-led high-level committee on Wednesday decided to advance the upcoming sugarcane crushing season for 2026-27 to October 15.

The state government’s decision comes when soaring sugar prices during the festive season have strained household budgets across Maharashtra.

The state government hopes the commencement of sugarcane crushing season from October 15 instead of November 1 demanded by sugar factories will stabilise the market and ensure an adequate supply of sugar.

This marks an earlier rollout compared to previous operational years, following seasons that started on November 1, 2025, and November 15, 2024, respectively.

The meeting was attended by Co-operation Minister Babasaheb Patil, Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar, former Minister Dilip Walse Patil, along with legislators and representatives from factory associations.

The move comes as retail sugar prices jumped to Rs 70–75 per kg in August due to a domestic supply crunch caused by lower production last season.

Normally, the crushing season commences in November.

However, with major festivals like Navratri, Dussehra, and Diwali approaching—and following advisories from the Central government to top-producing states — the Maharashtra administration decided to begin operations nearly a month early to prevent further price spikes.

The proposed October 15 start date has, however, met with opposition from sugar mill owners and farmers.

Industry representatives said that starting the crushing process before November is financially disadvantageous for both factories and growers due to lower sugarcane maturity and sugar recovery rates at that time of the year.

Despite the pushback from millers, the state government remains focused on controlling inflation and stabilising supply before the peak festive period.

Maharashtra Cooperation Minister Babasaheb Patil said, “The decision to advance the sugarcane crushing season from October 15 was taken in the wake of festive season and also to avoid damage to the standing sugarcane.”

According to crop estimations prepared by the Agriculture Department and MITCON, the state expects sugarcane cultivation across 15.43 to 15.48 lakh hectares.

Total cane production is projected to reach 1,238 to 1,250 lakh metric tonnes (LMT), yielding an estimated 990 to 1,000 LMT of cane for crushing.

Net sugar production is anticipated to hover between 96.45 and 97.58 LMT at a net recovery rate of 9.75 per cent, after diverting nearly 15 LMT of sugar equivalent toward ethanol production.

Reviewing the performance of the preceding 2025–26 crushing season (as of August 31, 2026), official records revealed that 210 sugar mills (102 cooperative and 108 private) processed 1,045 LMT of sugarcane.

Minister Patil said that the arrears payable by the sugar mills towards Fair and Remunerative Price are of the order of Rs 200 crore.

He added that the state government is taking action against such mills for clearing the dues.

He told that these mills won’t be entitled to get crushing license for the upcoming season.

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Business

Cabinet okays 5 railway projects in south India at total cost of Rs 10,021 crore

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New Delhi, Sep 9: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Wednesday approved five multitracking railway projects with an investment of Rs 10,021 crore.

The five projects, covering 17 districts across Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana, will increase the existing network of Indian Railways by about 540 km. The multi-tracking projects will enhance connectivity to approximately 2,121 villages, with a total population of about 52 lakh.

These projects include the Arakkonam–Renigunta 3rd and 4th Line over a stretch of 77 km, Whitefield–Bangarapet 3rd and 4th Line, 47 kms, Hosur-Omalur Doubling, over 147 km, Salem–Karur–Dindigul Doubling, amounting to 159 km, and Secunderabad (Ghatkesar)–Kazipet, extending to 110 km, according to an official statement.

The increased line capacity will significantly enhance mobility, resulting in improved operational efficiency and service reliability for Indian Railways. These multi-tracking projects are poised to alleviate congestion and are scheduled to be completed by 2029-30.

The projects are planned under the PM-Gati Shakti National Master Plan with a focus on enhancing multi-modal connectivity and logistics efficiency through integrated planning and stakeholder consultations. These projects will provide seamless connectivity for movement of people, goods, and services.

The approved capacity enhancement will improve rail connectivity to several prominent tourist destinations across the country, including Tirupati, Subramaniya Swamy Temple (Tiruttani), Sri Padmavati Ammavaari Temple (Tiruchanur), Kotilingeshwara Devaalaya, Sri Seethi Byraveshwara Swamy Temple, Bangaru Tirupati, Kolar Gold Fields, Hogennakkal Falls, Hosur Fort, Mettur Dam, Kodaikanal Hills, Sathyamangalam Wildlife Sanctuary, Namakkal Anjaneyar Temple, Namakkal Fort, Kalyana Pasupatheswar Temple, Yadagirigutta Temple, Bhongir Fort, Surendrapuri, and Swarnagiri Temple.

These projects are also essential routes for transportation of commodities such as coal, cement, iron and steel, containers, automobiles, food grains, petroleum products, fertilisers, etc. The capacity augmentation works will result in additional freight traffic of magnitude 47 MTPA (Million Tonnes Per Annum). The Railways, being an environment-friendly and energy-efficient mode of transportation, will help both in achieving climate goals and minimising logistics costs of the country, reduce oil imports by around 8 crore litres and lower CO2 emissions by 42 crore kg, which is equivalent to the plantation of around 2 crore trees, the statement added.

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