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Selloff 2022: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) or Fair Weather Friends

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The sharpest rate hike of 75 basis points since 1994 by the US Federal Reserve is the latest flashpoint in the global and Indian stock markets reeling under massive selling pressure of foreign investors.

Indian and global markets too slumped on Thursday over recessionary fear after the US Fed raised interest rates by 75 bps, the biggest increase since 1994. Further, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled another big move (50-75 bps hike) next month, intensifying its fight to contain rampant inflation.

It has sharply increased the interest rate target to 3.4 per cent for 2022 and 3.8 per cent for 2023, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Sorbh Gupta, Fund Manager, Equity, Quantum AMC, said in a note that May has seen FPI outflows of $5.17 billion. This has been the thirst worst month of FPI flows since FPI investments were allowed to invest in India in 1991.

“Interestingly, of the five ‘worst ever’ months of FPI flows, 4 have come in this calendar year. Domestic institutional investors (mutual funds and insurance put together) have been net buyers for May 2022 to the tune of $6.57 billion,” he added.

Equity investors who have invested in equity markets in the last two-three years have seen mostly positive returns and a swift recovery after every correction. The current volatility and slow grind of the markets will test their patience, Gupta said.

S&P BSE SENSEX declined by (-) 2.16 per cent on a total return basis in the month of May 2022.

It has underperformed developed market indices like S&P 500 (0.18 per cent) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (0.32 per cent). S&P BSE SENSEX has also underperformed MSCI Emerging Market Index (0.46 per cent). The broader market has been weaker, S&P BSE Midcap Index has declined by (-) 5.5 per cent for the month & S&P BSE Small cap Index declined by 7.8 per cent.

The power and metal sectors which have been hogging the limelight over the past few months were the biggest losers, falling by 11.3 per cent and 15.5 per cent, respectively. The BSE Auto Index was the only sectoral indices in the green moving up by 4.9 per cent.

Yes Bank said in a note that the higher current account deficit will not be fully covered by capital flows in FY23. India has already witnessed FII outflows of $30.5 billion since October 2021 and $9.4 billion since April 2022, from both debt and equity.

“Even as we expect FDI flows to stay on a strong footing (though weaker than the previous fiscal) and short-term trade finance to remain buoyant, overall flows under the capital account is expected at around $55 billion in FY23, compared to $94 billion in FY 22,” the note said.

The risks of a lower BoP balance cannot be ruled out in the event of larger outflows than being currently anticipated.

As per the IIF, capital flows to EM, including India, are expected to slow to $972 billion this year from $1.68 trillion in 2021, a decline of 42 per cent YoY.

Excluding China, the net capital flows are likely to drop to $645 billion, down from $1 trillion last year. The underlying weak fundamentals of the EM economies on account of higher oil prices, high Current Account Deficit (CAD), elevated general government debt to GDP ratio and limited fiscal space to support growth is likely to limit the possibility of much capital pull into the region, Yes Bank said.

In FY 2021-22 alone, FIIs sold their investments for approximately worth Rs 1.22 lakh crore as against FY 2020-21 where they invested around Rs 2.67 lakh crore. There are multiple reasons because of which FIIs started pulling out their investments from the Indian markets since the last financial year, Angel One said in a note.

The Russia-Ukraine war took centre stage in the last week of February. Uncertainties and geopolitical complexities that arose due to this war have created a fear among foreign investors. This has resulted in the FIIs outflows in India.

India is the third largest consumer of crude oil and is also the third largest importer of crude oil across the globe. The heat of the Russia-Ukraine war had a massive impact on the global economy as the crude oil prices spiked. These soaring crude prices turned the Indian stock market volatile and resulted in the increase in the costs of transportation and an increase in inflation. This impact on the economy and imports influenced foreign investors’ sentiments which pushed them to pull their money out of the Indian stock market, Angel One said in a note.

Indian markets are aligned with the US and the other global markets which means if the other markets start falling, Indian markets will also be impacted. Among the major reasons that are recently affecting the US economy are higher inflation, an expected rise in the interest rate to control inflation and rising inflation has led to a sharp jump in the US bond yields.

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20 pc EV share by 2030 can save import bill worth Rs 1 lakh crore, Delhi policy shows the way

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New Delhi, July 2: The West Asia crisis is transforming Indians’ travel preferences with a hastened shift to electric vehicles (EV) and EV penetration could save Rs 1 lakh crore of import bill with a 20 per cent adoption rate by 2030 from the current 10 per cent, an SBI Research report said on Thursday.

With the onset of the US-Iran war on February 28, the registration of EVs have jumped significantly in India. From average 1.3 lakh registration in 2025, the March-June period exhibited average 2.3 lakh registrations — a whopping 1 lakh more compared to 2025 average.

“At the current rate, we believe, total EV registrations may cross 25 lakh mark in 2026,” said the report.

The penetration of pure EV is continuously rising in overall registration. From merely less than 2 per cent share in 2024, the registration share of pure EV has reached more than 8 per cent share in 2026 to date. In some states, the penetration of pure EV has crossed more than 10 per cent share

India has 29,151 charging stations. Two states (Karnataka and Maharashtra) accounted for 35 per cent of overall charging stations, said the report.

As per new EV policy, the Delhi government plans to install 32,000 charging points infrastructure within the next four years.

“The success of EV will largely depend upon the availability of charging stations,” said the report.

From the current level of 2.86 crore vehicle registered in India (2025), “our projections indicate that by 2030, 4 crore vehicles are going to register. We also estimate that out of these 4 crore vehicles, 20 per cent are EVs (80 lakh from the 2025 level of 15.7 lakh),” the report projected.

“Our estimate indicate that during the four-year period of 2027-2030, 35 lakh more EVs are expected to replace the petrol vehicles (as compared to current BAU scenario),” it added.

In this regard, Delhi’s new EV policy is commendable.

A purchase incentive will be provided to two-wheeler vehicles in the first three years (cumulative: Rs 60,000). For three wheelers, the incentives are Rs 1,20,000 cumulatively. N1 commercial trucks will be provided with a subsidy of Rs 1 lakh in the first year. Delhi also offers 100 per cent waiver on road tax and one-time registration fees for eligible EVs.

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Sensex, Nifty end higher as FMCG, banking and realty stocks lift benchmark indices

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Mumbai, July 1: Indian equity benchmark indices ended higher on Wednesday, supported by strong buying in FMCG, banking, financial and realty stocks.

The Nifty climbed 140.10 points, or 0.59 per cent, to close at 24,005.85, while the Sensex advanced 443.97 points, or 0.58 per cent, to settle at 76,922.64.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the 24,100–24,200 region, which coincides with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), continues to act as the immediate resistance zone.

“A sustained breakout above this band would reinforce bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance towards the 24,400 region,” an analyst stated.

“On the downside, the 23,900–23,800 zone continues to serve as a crucial support area, closely aligned with the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs),” a market expert added.

Among the Nifty constituents, Eternal, Adani Enterprises and Nestle India emerged as the top gainers, helping lift the benchmark index.

The broader market also finished in positive territory, with the Nifty MidCap index rising 0.34 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index gaining 0.36 per cent.

On the sectoral front, the Nifty Realty index led the gains, followed by the Nifty FMCG and Nifty Auto indices, as investors accumulated shares in these sectors. However, the Nifty IT, Nifty Metal and Nifty Pharma indices underperformed the broader market and ended with relatively weaker gains or losses.

Analysts said that domestic equities extended their upward momentum, with gains across key sectors outweighing weakness in information technology, metal and pharmaceutical stocks.

“The domestic markets entered H2 CY26 on an optimistic footing as multiple headwinds began to abate, with the anticipated US-India trade agreement, easing Middle East tensions, and benign oil prices emerging as the key drivers of positive sentiment,” an analyst added.

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MSC Group’s arm to invest around $1.4 billion for 49 pc share in Adani’s Vizhinjam port

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Ahmedabad, June 30: Adani Ports on Tuesday said it has entered into a definitive agreement with MSC Group under which MSC’s container terminal operating and investing arm Terminal Investment Limited (TiL) will invest for 49 per cent interest in Adani Vizhinjam Port Private Limited (AVPPL), the concessionaire for Vizhinjam port.

The strategic collaboration represents the single largest foreign private investment in Indian port infrastructure and cements Vizhinjam’s emergence as a dominant transshipment gateway in the Indian Ocean region.

TiL will invest $1.397 billion, equivalent to its proportionate 49 per cent share in Vizhinjam port in total deal value of $2.85 billion.

“Vizhinjam port has emerged as a premier transshipment hub and ramped up at an unprecedented pace, becoming the first Indian port to earn the unique distinction of crossing two million TEUs within 18 months of operations,” said Ashwani Gupta, Whole-time Director and CEO, APSEZ.

“I am delighted to expand APSEZ’s long-standing partnership with MSC to Vizhinjam, as we prepare for the port’s next leg of journey. I am confident that our association will deliver enhanced supply chain efficiencies at a global scale and improve India’s access to key global mature and developing markets,” Gupta said.

The transaction is subject to customary approvals, including regulatory ones.

The strategic collaboration between APSEZ and MSC Group will deliver significant advantages for APSEZ, including enhanced volume visibility and accelerated ramp-up ahead of plan, driven by additional cargo volumes; a higher share of Bangladesh cargo, largely dependent on competing Southeast Asian transshipment hubs; strengthen presence on East Africa trade routes; and elevated relay cargo volumes.

TiL is one of the world’s largest container terminal operators and part of the MSC Group comprising a portfolio of more than 100 container terminals across five continents and a throughput of more than 70 million TEUs per annum.

Commissioned in December 2024, Vizhinjam port is India’s first deep-draft mega transshipment port with 1.6 million TEU capacity. The port is undergoing expansion that will increase capacity 3.5x to 5.7 million TEUs by December 2028, according to the company.

Vizhinjam port is strategically located just 10 nautical miles from the East-West shipping route connecting Europe, the Persian Gulf, and the Far East.

During FY26, Vizhinjam port handled 1.3 million TEUs. In its first year, Vizhinjam port handled 1.3 million TEUs and 615 vessels, becoming the fastest Indian port to cross the one million TEU milestone.

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