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Selloff 2022: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) or Fair Weather Friends

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The sharpest rate hike of 75 basis points since 1994 by the US Federal Reserve is the latest flashpoint in the global and Indian stock markets reeling under massive selling pressure of foreign investors.

Indian and global markets too slumped on Thursday over recessionary fear after the US Fed raised interest rates by 75 bps, the biggest increase since 1994. Further, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled another big move (50-75 bps hike) next month, intensifying its fight to contain rampant inflation.

It has sharply increased the interest rate target to 3.4 per cent for 2022 and 3.8 per cent for 2023, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Sorbh Gupta, Fund Manager, Equity, Quantum AMC, said in a note that May has seen FPI outflows of $5.17 billion. This has been the thirst worst month of FPI flows since FPI investments were allowed to invest in India in 1991.

“Interestingly, of the five ‘worst ever’ months of FPI flows, 4 have come in this calendar year. Domestic institutional investors (mutual funds and insurance put together) have been net buyers for May 2022 to the tune of $6.57 billion,” he added.

Equity investors who have invested in equity markets in the last two-three years have seen mostly positive returns and a swift recovery after every correction. The current volatility and slow grind of the markets will test their patience, Gupta said.

S&P BSE SENSEX declined by (-) 2.16 per cent on a total return basis in the month of May 2022.

It has underperformed developed market indices like S&P 500 (0.18 per cent) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (0.32 per cent). S&P BSE SENSEX has also underperformed MSCI Emerging Market Index (0.46 per cent). The broader market has been weaker, S&P BSE Midcap Index has declined by (-) 5.5 per cent for the month & S&P BSE Small cap Index declined by 7.8 per cent.

The power and metal sectors which have been hogging the limelight over the past few months were the biggest losers, falling by 11.3 per cent and 15.5 per cent, respectively. The BSE Auto Index was the only sectoral indices in the green moving up by 4.9 per cent.

Yes Bank said in a note that the higher current account deficit will not be fully covered by capital flows in FY23. India has already witnessed FII outflows of $30.5 billion since October 2021 and $9.4 billion since April 2022, from both debt and equity.

“Even as we expect FDI flows to stay on a strong footing (though weaker than the previous fiscal) and short-term trade finance to remain buoyant, overall flows under the capital account is expected at around $55 billion in FY23, compared to $94 billion in FY 22,” the note said.

The risks of a lower BoP balance cannot be ruled out in the event of larger outflows than being currently anticipated.

As per the IIF, capital flows to EM, including India, are expected to slow to $972 billion this year from $1.68 trillion in 2021, a decline of 42 per cent YoY.

Excluding China, the net capital flows are likely to drop to $645 billion, down from $1 trillion last year. The underlying weak fundamentals of the EM economies on account of higher oil prices, high Current Account Deficit (CAD), elevated general government debt to GDP ratio and limited fiscal space to support growth is likely to limit the possibility of much capital pull into the region, Yes Bank said.

In FY 2021-22 alone, FIIs sold their investments for approximately worth Rs 1.22 lakh crore as against FY 2020-21 where they invested around Rs 2.67 lakh crore. There are multiple reasons because of which FIIs started pulling out their investments from the Indian markets since the last financial year, Angel One said in a note.

The Russia-Ukraine war took centre stage in the last week of February. Uncertainties and geopolitical complexities that arose due to this war have created a fear among foreign investors. This has resulted in the FIIs outflows in India.

India is the third largest consumer of crude oil and is also the third largest importer of crude oil across the globe. The heat of the Russia-Ukraine war had a massive impact on the global economy as the crude oil prices spiked. These soaring crude prices turned the Indian stock market volatile and resulted in the increase in the costs of transportation and an increase in inflation. This impact on the economy and imports influenced foreign investors’ sentiments which pushed them to pull their money out of the Indian stock market, Angel One said in a note.

Indian markets are aligned with the US and the other global markets which means if the other markets start falling, Indian markets will also be impacted. Among the major reasons that are recently affecting the US economy are higher inflation, an expected rise in the interest rate to control inflation and rising inflation has led to a sharp jump in the US bond yields.

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Bank strike: Customers urged to finish key transactions before 3-day nationwide protest

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New Delhi, Sep 26: Customers of several public sector and old-generation private sector banks have been advised to complete important banking transactions in advance as bank employees’ unions prepare for a three-day nationwide strike starting September 28. The proposed strike is expected to disrupt branch operations across many banks and coincides with the sector’s crucial half-yearly closing period.

The strike has been called by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), which claims to represent nearly 90 per cent of the country’s banking workforce.

The unions are pressing for the implementation of a five-day banking week, along with pension-related reforms and other employee welfare measures.

In a bid to reduce inconvenience to customers, the government has directed public sector banks to remain open on Sunday, September 27, enabling customers to complete urgent transactions before the strike begins.

State Bank of India (SBI) has issued an advisory stating that while it will make efforts to maintain essential services at branches and offices, some banking operations could be affected during the strike period.

The bank has urged customers to complete critical transactions ahead of time and make use of digital banking channels, including YONO, internet banking, mobile banking, UPI, ATMs and cash deposit machines, wherever possible.

Bank of India has also alerted customers about the planned strike and advised them to rely on the bank’s round-the-clock digital platforms such as internet banking, mobile banking, ATMs, business correspondent points and UPI services for their banking requirements.

Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) are also expected to participate in the agitation, potentially widening the impact on banking services across the country.

However, new-generation private sector banks such as ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank are expected to continue normal operations, offering customers an alternative for routine banking services during the strike period.

Earlier this week, the Finance Ministry appealed to bank employees’ unions to avoid the strike and resolve pending issues through dialogue. The ministry maintained that a majority of the concerns raised by the unions have already been substantially addressed.

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Nifty, Sensex dip for 7th week amid high crude prices, bond yields

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Mumbai, Sep 26: The Indian equity benchmarks posted notable losses for the seventh consecutive week, as crude prices stayed elevated and US bond yields surged.

Nifty declined 0.88 per cent during the week and added 0.34 per cent on the last trading day to reach 23,140. At close, Sensex was up 315 points, or 0.43 per cent, at 73,895. It lost 0.54 per cent during the week.

Markets came under heavy selling pressure midweek as benchmarks slid over 1.6 per cent on Thursday before a modest rebound on Friday driven by value buying.

Brent crude stayed above the $105-per-barrel mark for most of the week, while WTI crude also remained elevated above $90 per barrel amid continued geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over global oil supplies.

However, oil prices moderated toward the end of the week, and eased global risk sentiment, concerns of pressure on the import bill, inflation expectations, the rupee and corporate input costs.

Analysts said that the global bond market continued to add pressure, with the US 10-year Treasury yield moving above 5.10 per cent during the week. Elevated yields continue to tighten global financial conditions and can reduce the relative attractiveness of emerging market assets, they added.

Foreign institutional selling has intensified significantly compared with previous weeks and has become a major headwind for domestic equities.

Meanwhile, Iran has submitted a new seven-day proposal to the United States to end the ongoing conflict and reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifts its naval blockade, waives oil sanctions and agrees to a broader ceasefire.

The 23,000 zone remains the immediate support area for Nifty, while the 23,200 region remains the immediate resistance zone, said analysts.

Market participants are also keen on the trajectory of rupee, with persistent oil-related demand for dollars and continued FII outflows potentially keeping the currency under pressure, although RBI intervention has helped contain excessive volatility.

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LG Electronics India gets notice to pay up Rs 153.58 crore as customs duty

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New Delhi, Sep 25: LG Electronics India Ltd has received a show cause notice from the Customs authorities for the recovery of Rs 153.58 crore as customs duty for allegedly not including royalty payments in the assessable value of certain imported goods, the company has stated in a stock exchange filing.

The show cause notice has been issued following an investigation carried out by the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI), alleging non-inclusion of royalty payments in the assessable value of certain imported goods.

The notice, dated September 22, was issued by the Office of the Commissioner of Customs, Nhava Sheva Port in Navi Mumbai, and was received by the company on September 24.

Meanwhile, LG Electronics, along with arch rival and compatriot Samsung, are also facing an investigation for alleged wrong ⁠claims of concessional 5 per cent customs duty on imported OLED glass screens. The DRI authorities have expressed the view that the concessional rate is meant for the older LCD and LEDs used in products sold in the mass market. For OLED parts, the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence is of the opinion that both Samsung and LG should have paid a 15 per cent customs duty, according to a Reuters report.

LG Electronics is reported to have sent responses to written questions by the authorities on its OLED imports and has voluntarily deposited the money to pay for the difference in customs duty as estimated by officials.

Meanwhile, LG Electronics India reported a 27.2 per cent year-on-year surge in net profit to Rs 653 crore for the first quarter of financial year 2026-27compared with the corresponding figure of Rs 513 crore in the same quarter of 2025-26, driven by strong summer demand and premium product sales.

The company’s revenue rose 15.5 per cent during the April-June quarter to Rs 7,233 crore compared with the corresponding figure of Rs 6,262 crore in the same quarter of the previous financial year.

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