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Selloff 2022: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) or Fair Weather Friends

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The sharpest rate hike of 75 basis points since 1994 by the US Federal Reserve is the latest flashpoint in the global and Indian stock markets reeling under massive selling pressure of foreign investors.

Indian and global markets too slumped on Thursday over recessionary fear after the US Fed raised interest rates by 75 bps, the biggest increase since 1994. Further, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled another big move (50-75 bps hike) next month, intensifying its fight to contain rampant inflation.

It has sharply increased the interest rate target to 3.4 per cent for 2022 and 3.8 per cent for 2023, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Sorbh Gupta, Fund Manager, Equity, Quantum AMC, said in a note that May has seen FPI outflows of $5.17 billion. This has been the thirst worst month of FPI flows since FPI investments were allowed to invest in India in 1991.

“Interestingly, of the five ‘worst ever’ months of FPI flows, 4 have come in this calendar year. Domestic institutional investors (mutual funds and insurance put together) have been net buyers for May 2022 to the tune of $6.57 billion,” he added.

Equity investors who have invested in equity markets in the last two-three years have seen mostly positive returns and a swift recovery after every correction. The current volatility and slow grind of the markets will test their patience, Gupta said.

S&P BSE SENSEX declined by (-) 2.16 per cent on a total return basis in the month of May 2022.

It has underperformed developed market indices like S&P 500 (0.18 per cent) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (0.32 per cent). S&P BSE SENSEX has also underperformed MSCI Emerging Market Index (0.46 per cent). The broader market has been weaker, S&P BSE Midcap Index has declined by (-) 5.5 per cent for the month & S&P BSE Small cap Index declined by 7.8 per cent.

The power and metal sectors which have been hogging the limelight over the past few months were the biggest losers, falling by 11.3 per cent and 15.5 per cent, respectively. The BSE Auto Index was the only sectoral indices in the green moving up by 4.9 per cent.

Yes Bank said in a note that the higher current account deficit will not be fully covered by capital flows in FY23. India has already witnessed FII outflows of $30.5 billion since October 2021 and $9.4 billion since April 2022, from both debt and equity.

“Even as we expect FDI flows to stay on a strong footing (though weaker than the previous fiscal) and short-term trade finance to remain buoyant, overall flows under the capital account is expected at around $55 billion in FY23, compared to $94 billion in FY 22,” the note said.

The risks of a lower BoP balance cannot be ruled out in the event of larger outflows than being currently anticipated.

As per the IIF, capital flows to EM, including India, are expected to slow to $972 billion this year from $1.68 trillion in 2021, a decline of 42 per cent YoY.

Excluding China, the net capital flows are likely to drop to $645 billion, down from $1 trillion last year. The underlying weak fundamentals of the EM economies on account of higher oil prices, high Current Account Deficit (CAD), elevated general government debt to GDP ratio and limited fiscal space to support growth is likely to limit the possibility of much capital pull into the region, Yes Bank said.

In FY 2021-22 alone, FIIs sold their investments for approximately worth Rs 1.22 lakh crore as against FY 2020-21 where they invested around Rs 2.67 lakh crore. There are multiple reasons because of which FIIs started pulling out their investments from the Indian markets since the last financial year, Angel One said in a note.

The Russia-Ukraine war took centre stage in the last week of February. Uncertainties and geopolitical complexities that arose due to this war have created a fear among foreign investors. This has resulted in the FIIs outflows in India.

India is the third largest consumer of crude oil and is also the third largest importer of crude oil across the globe. The heat of the Russia-Ukraine war had a massive impact on the global economy as the crude oil prices spiked. These soaring crude prices turned the Indian stock market volatile and resulted in the increase in the costs of transportation and an increase in inflation. This impact on the economy and imports influenced foreign investors’ sentiments which pushed them to pull their money out of the Indian stock market, Angel One said in a note.

Indian markets are aligned with the US and the other global markets which means if the other markets start falling, Indian markets will also be impacted. Among the major reasons that are recently affecting the US economy are higher inflation, an expected rise in the interest rate to control inflation and rising inflation has led to a sharp jump in the US bond yields.

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Gold, silver decline up to 1 pc as US-Iran tensions weigh sentiment

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New Delhi, Aug 14: Gold and silver prices traded sharply lower on Friday amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of never-before-seen economic measures against Iran.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (October) declined as much as 0.8 per cent or Rs 1,233 to Rs 1,52,233, hitting an intraday low by 10:22 am.

At the last count, the yellow metal was trading at 1,52,415, down Rs 1,051 or 0.68 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,200 so far in the session, a decrease of 0.17 per cent or Rs 266 from the previous close.

Similarly, silver futures (September) recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,32,454, decreasing 1.27 per cent or Rs 2,993.

The white metal was trading at Rs 2,32,880, down Rs 2,567 or about 1 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 2,33,982, down 0.62 per cent or Rs 1,465.

Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,53,200 and Rs 2,33,780, respectively on the MCX.

The selling pressure in precious metals came after reports suggest that Bessent said the US would use a combination of economic isolation and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to market experts, MCX Gold extends downside momentum, trading near Rs 152,500 after facing rejection from highs near Rs 155,500.

They further noted that immediate resistance is placed at Rs 153,000–Rs 153,500 near open and a decisive move above could push toward Rs 154,000–Rs 154,500.

Immediate support is seen at Rs 152,000–Rs 151,500, followed by stronger support at Rs 151,000, the experts said adding that price continues to hold comfortably above all major EMAs, but MACD indicates slowing bullish momentum and RSI reverses from overbought territory, reflecting possible near-term pressure.

For MCX Silver, the experts stated that immediate support is seen at the Rs 232,000 zone, followed by stronger support at Rs 231,500–Rs 231,000.

Price breaks below the 20-day EMA, with MACD indicating slowing bullish momentum, while RSI eases, supporting the trend-reversal narrative and reflecting near-term pressure. Bias remains cautious, with a break below Rs 232,000 likely to invite further downside.

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India may attract up to $95 billion inflows in FY27 on strong FCNR response: Report

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New Delhi : Robust foreign currency non‑resident (bank) FCNR(B) inflows and related measures from RBI are now expected to generate $90–95 billion of capital inflows in FY27, lifting India’s balance of payments to a surplus of $64 billion, a report has said.

The report from CareEdge Ratings said the agency has revised up its FCNR(B) projection to about $80 billion and expects External Commercial Borrowings and Overseas Foreign Currency inflows at $10–15 billion.

Consequently, India’s capital account surplus is now expected to increase to approximately $108 billion, compared with a surplus of just $2 billion in the previous year

The report added that the BoP is forecast to improve to a $64 billion surplus in FY27 from deficits of $23.6 billion in FY26 and $5 billion in FY25.

“This would represent a substantial strengthening of India’s external position and provide an important buffer against global volatility,” the ratings agency said.

The concessional swap windows for FCNR(B) deposits, External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs), amongst other policy measures announced on June 5, 2026, have seen a strong response.

The firm noted these measures have attracted USD 40.8 billion, with FCNR(B) inflows accounting for $36.7 billion, and ECBs and OFCBs together accounting for $4.1 billion between June 5 and July 31, 2026.

Large banks are currently offering deposit rates in the 6.0-6.5 per cent range, while some smaller and newer banks are offering rates close to 7 per cent for FCNR deposits.

Additionally, the availability of significant leverage for investors, with some foreign banks reportedly offering leverage as high as 19-fold to 29-fold in some cases, appears to have enhanced the attractiveness of the scheme and supported stronger-than-expected participation.

The report noted that strong capital inflows could ease domestic liquidity as banking system liquidity averaged around Rs 1.1 trillion in July and has risen to Rs 3 trillion so far in August, supported by month‑end inflows.

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Sensex, Nifty open flat as investors weigh strong domestic fundamentals against oil price risks

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Mumbai, Aug 13: Equity benchmarks opened little changed on Thursday as investors balanced robust domestic growth indicators against lingering concerns over crude oil prices.

Sensex opened 145.56 points or 0.19 per cent higher at 78,111.91, while Nifty slipped marginally by 4.35 points or 0.02 per cent to 24,431.60.

Sector-wise, Nifty Media index rose 0.61 per cent, followed by Nifty Auto which gained 0.39 per cent.

On the other hand, rate-sensitive and heavyweight sectors witnessed selling pressure. Nifty Realty declined 0.81 per cent, Nifty IT fell 0.69 per cent, while Nifty PSU Bank, Oil & Gas and Private Bank indices shed up to 0.61 per cent.

According to market experts, equities are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term due to strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and sustained inflows from domestic investors.

High-frequency indicators such as GST collections, freight movement, automobile sales and credit growth continue to signal resilience in the economy and could support earnings growth going forward, they added.

However, elevated crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding their future trajectory remain key risks for the market, the experts said.

Technical analysts noted that Wednesday’s rebound from the 20-day moving average and the formation of a hammer candlestick pattern have improved the near-term outlook.

“The recent price action has opened the possibility of a move towards the 24,540-24,666 zone initially, followed by 24,850-25,100. However, some consolidation may emerge near 24,490,” according to them.

Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped more than 1 per cent to $87.75 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1.64 per cent to $81.90 per barrel, helping ease concerns over inflationary pressures and input costs.

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