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All-time low in global growth optimism, finds survey

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The US stock market has officially entered a bear market as the June BofA Fund Manager Survey (FMS) signals deeper investor misery.

The survey finds that inflation will nonetheless remain high relative to history so by far and away the most popular description of what the economic backdrop will be in the next 12 months is “stagflation”, 83 per cent (up from 77 per cent), highest level since June 2008.

The survey shows all time low in global growth optimism (net minus 73 per cent), stagflation fear highest since June 2008, profit outlook worse since September 2008 (Lehman), CIOs telling CEOs to play safe (44 per cent want stronger balance sheets vs 30 per cent desire for capex and 18 per cent for buybacks).

Optimism on global growth has fallen to a new low. Net percentage of FMS investors expecting a stronger economy fell to minus 73 per cent, lowest since 1994.

Investors now seem convinced inflation will be lower in the next year, more investors than at any time since GFC/Lehman expect inflation rates to decline.

As per the BofA survey, global profit expectations fell to net minus 72 per cent (from 66 per cent), the weakest since September 2008. The survey notes that the big lows in global profit expectations all occurred at other Wall St crisis moments (LTCM, Dotcom bubble burst, Lehman bankruptcy and Covid).

Investors are now telling companies to “play it safe”. Investors want companies to strengthen their balance sheets (at 44 per cent up from 41 per cent, highest since January 2021) rather than increase spending on capex or return cash to shareholders via buybacks.

Relative to the past 10 years investors are long cash, commodities, and healthcare and are very underweight equities, tech, the Eurozone, and EM.

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Google to invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic amid global AI race

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New Delhi, April 25: US tech giant Google plans to invest up to $40 billion in the artificial intelligence (AI) firm Anthropic, as global technology giants accelerate their push into advanced AI models and infrastructure.

The proposed investment includes an initial $10 billion infusion at Anthropic’s latest valuation of $380 billion, with the remaining $30 billion tied to performance-based milestones, the companies confirmed, according to multiple reports.

The move has built on a multi-year partnership between the two firms, under which Google provides cloud infrastructure and access to Anthropic’s AI models, including its Claude suite.

Moreover, Anthropic also leverages Google’s custom tensor processing units (TPUs) as an alternative to widely used graphics processing units.

The latest agreement between the tech firms came amid surging demand for generative AI tools across enterprises, developers and consumers, which has placed increasing pressure on computing infrastructure.

Notably, Anthropic recently secured 5 gigawatts of compute capacity through collaborations involving Google and Broadcom, with additional expansion planned.

However, despite their collaboration, the companies remain competitors in the AI space, with Google’s Gemini models vying against Anthropic’s offerings in the rapidly evolving market.

Additionally, Google has been steadily increasing its stake in Anthropic since 2023, when it first invested $300 million for roughly a 10 per cent holding. Subsequent funding rounds pushed its total investment beyond $3 billion, with reports suggesting a stake of about 14 per cent prior to the latest deal.

The investment has underscored intensifying competition among major technology firms, which are committing tens of billions of dollars to leading AI labs such as Anthropic and rivals, including OpenAI.

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers and has seen rapid growth in adoption of its AI products, particularly its Claude models, with annualised revenue crossing $30 billion.

The deal has followed a similar arrangement with Amazon, which recently invested $5 billion in Anthropic and committed up to $20 billion more, linked to specific commercial milestones.

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India, New Zealand set to sign FTA for improved market access on April 27

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New Delhi, April 24: As India and New Zealand prepare to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Monday, both sides are expected to benefit from expanded trade ties and improved market access, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has said.

Taking to the social media platform X, Luxon said, “We will sign a Free Trade Agreement with India on Monday.”

In a video message, Luxon said the agreement would improve market access for New Zealand exporters, particularly manufacturers of marine jet systems used in boats and exported to over 70 countries.

He added that the deal would help reduce trade barriers and strengthen commercial engagement between the two countries.

He also noted that certain exporters currently face tariffs while accessing the Indian market, and said the agreement would gradually ease such duties, improving competitiveness and supporting higher trade flows.

Luxon said the FTA would support increased business activity, employment opportunities and economic growth in New Zealand, while also strengthening bilateral trade linkages with India.

He added that the agreement would bring ‘more jobs, higher wages and more opportunities,’ highlighting the broader economic impact of the deal.

Once signed, the FTA is expected to expand trade and investment ties between the two countries and enhance export opportunities on both sides in a large and growing global market environment.

Earlier this month, legal verification of the New Zealand-India FTA was completed, with both countries agreeing to sign the pact on April 27 in the presence of a large contingent of business representatives, New Zealand Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said.

In a statement, McClay described the agreement as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity,” saying it would strengthen bilateral trade relations and provide improved access to each other’s markets.

He said that amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, strengthening trade partnerships remains important for long-term economic stability.

McClay added that signing the FTA would allow New Zealand to formally initiate parliamentary treaty examination, enabling public scrutiny of the agreement.

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Business

Gold and silver prices slip nearly 1 pc amid geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, Gold and silver prices started the session on a weaker note on Friday, with both precious metals declining by nearly 1 per cent in early trade on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Gold futures for June 5 opened 0.39 per cent or Rs 594 lower at Rs 1,51,167 per 10 grams compared to the previous close of Rs 1,51,761.

Later, the yellow metal touched an intra-day low of Rs 1,50,750, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,011. At the last count, it was trading at Rs 1,51,449, a decrease of Rs 312 or 0.21 per cent. During the session so far, gold has touched an intra-day high of Rs 1,51,457.

On the other hand, silver futures for May 5 declined as much as 0.95 per cent or Rs 2,313 to Rs 2,39,200, an intraday low. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,41,345, down Rs 168 or 0.07 per cent. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,41,382, down 0.05 per cent or Rs 131.

In the international market, precious metals also witnessed selling pressure. COMEX gold was down nearly 1 per cent at $4,684 per ounce, while COMEX silver also slipped around 1 per cent to $74.81 per ounce.

According to commodity analysts, gold and silver prices are under pressure due to a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields, and uncertainty over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

They further said that crude oil moving back above $100 per barrel has raised inflation concerns, adding to pressure on precious metals.

Moreover, Brent crude was trading at more than $100 per barrel or 2 per cent higher.

Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty also traded up to 1 per cent lower in early trade on Friday.

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