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Selloff 2022: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) or Fair Weather Friends

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The sharpest rate hike of 75 basis points since 1994 by the US Federal Reserve is the latest flashpoint in the global and Indian stock markets reeling under massive selling pressure of foreign investors.

Indian and global markets too slumped on Thursday over recessionary fear after the US Fed raised interest rates by 75 bps, the biggest increase since 1994. Further, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled another big move (50-75 bps hike) next month, intensifying its fight to contain rampant inflation.

It has sharply increased the interest rate target to 3.4 per cent for 2022 and 3.8 per cent for 2023, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Sorbh Gupta, Fund Manager, Equity, Quantum AMC, said in a note that May has seen FPI outflows of $5.17 billion. This has been the thirst worst month of FPI flows since FPI investments were allowed to invest in India in 1991.

“Interestingly, of the five ‘worst ever’ months of FPI flows, 4 have come in this calendar year. Domestic institutional investors (mutual funds and insurance put together) have been net buyers for May 2022 to the tune of $6.57 billion,” he added.

Equity investors who have invested in equity markets in the last two-three years have seen mostly positive returns and a swift recovery after every correction. The current volatility and slow grind of the markets will test their patience, Gupta said.

S&P BSE SENSEX declined by (-) 2.16 per cent on a total return basis in the month of May 2022.

It has underperformed developed market indices like S&P 500 (0.18 per cent) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (0.32 per cent). S&P BSE SENSEX has also underperformed MSCI Emerging Market Index (0.46 per cent). The broader market has been weaker, S&P BSE Midcap Index has declined by (-) 5.5 per cent for the month & S&P BSE Small cap Index declined by 7.8 per cent.

The power and metal sectors which have been hogging the limelight over the past few months were the biggest losers, falling by 11.3 per cent and 15.5 per cent, respectively. The BSE Auto Index was the only sectoral indices in the green moving up by 4.9 per cent.

Yes Bank said in a note that the higher current account deficit will not be fully covered by capital flows in FY23. India has already witnessed FII outflows of $30.5 billion since October 2021 and $9.4 billion since April 2022, from both debt and equity.

“Even as we expect FDI flows to stay on a strong footing (though weaker than the previous fiscal) and short-term trade finance to remain buoyant, overall flows under the capital account is expected at around $55 billion in FY23, compared to $94 billion in FY 22,” the note said.

The risks of a lower BoP balance cannot be ruled out in the event of larger outflows than being currently anticipated.

As per the IIF, capital flows to EM, including India, are expected to slow to $972 billion this year from $1.68 trillion in 2021, a decline of 42 per cent YoY.

Excluding China, the net capital flows are likely to drop to $645 billion, down from $1 trillion last year. The underlying weak fundamentals of the EM economies on account of higher oil prices, high Current Account Deficit (CAD), elevated general government debt to GDP ratio and limited fiscal space to support growth is likely to limit the possibility of much capital pull into the region, Yes Bank said.

In FY 2021-22 alone, FIIs sold their investments for approximately worth Rs 1.22 lakh crore as against FY 2020-21 where they invested around Rs 2.67 lakh crore. There are multiple reasons because of which FIIs started pulling out their investments from the Indian markets since the last financial year, Angel One said in a note.

The Russia-Ukraine war took centre stage in the last week of February. Uncertainties and geopolitical complexities that arose due to this war have created a fear among foreign investors. This has resulted in the FIIs outflows in India.

India is the third largest consumer of crude oil and is also the third largest importer of crude oil across the globe. The heat of the Russia-Ukraine war had a massive impact on the global economy as the crude oil prices spiked. These soaring crude prices turned the Indian stock market volatile and resulted in the increase in the costs of transportation and an increase in inflation. This impact on the economy and imports influenced foreign investors’ sentiments which pushed them to pull their money out of the Indian stock market, Angel One said in a note.

Indian markets are aligned with the US and the other global markets which means if the other markets start falling, Indian markets will also be impacted. Among the major reasons that are recently affecting the US economy are higher inflation, an expected rise in the interest rate to control inflation and rising inflation has led to a sharp jump in the US bond yields.

National

‘Waqf Bill will benefit Muslims, no threat to religious sites,’ says Shahabuddin Razvi

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New Delhi, April 4: Maulana Shahabuddin Razvi, the National President of All India Muslim Jamaat, expressed his support for the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, stating that it would significantly benefit Muslims and ensure the betterment of their socio-economic conditions.

He praised the passage of the bill in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha and thanked the Modi government.

Maulana Shahabuddin, giving his first reaction to passage of bill, said, “The Waqf Amendment Bill does not harm common Muslims, it will benefit them. The only ones who stand to lose are the Waqf land mafias who have illegally occupied valuable land. Common Muslims will not be affected by this.”

He further stated that the bill is aimed at protecting the interests of the poor and vulnerable sections of the Muslim community.

The Maulana explained that the revenue generated from Waqf land would be used to improve the socio-economic status of impoverished Muslims, particularly those unable to afford quality education for their children.

“The income from Waqf land will be used for the benefit of poor Muslims, helping children from low-income families get a better education, and assisting orphans and widows in their development,” he said.

Maulana Shahabuddin assured that the funds would be used according to the intention of the Waqf and aimed at opening schools, colleges, madrasas, and orphanages to uplift the educational and social standing of underprivileged Muslims.

Addressing concerns about the impact on religious sites, Maulana Shahabuddin stated, “The Waqf Amendment Bill poses no threat to religious sites. Mosques, madrasas, Eidgahs, cemeteries, and shrines will remain unaffected. The government will not interfere with these religious institutions in any way.”

He further cautioned the Muslim community against falling prey to misleading political narratives, urging them not to be swayed by political figures seeking to exploit the situation for their own gain.

“Some politicians are misleading Muslims for their own interests. I appeal to the Muslim community to not fall for their provocations,” he added.

In the early hours of Friday, the Rajya Sabha approved the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2025, with a majority of 128 votes against 95, following a heated debate. The Bill had been passed in the Lok Sabha just a day earlier, after nearly 12 hours of intense discussions.

Drawing a parallel to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) controversy, Maulana Shahabuddin recalled how political leaders misled the Muslim community, causing unwarranted fear that Muslims would lose their citizenship.

“When the CAA law was introduced, Muslims were misled into believing that their citizenship would be revoked. However, after its implementation, it became clear that no Muslim in India lost their citizenship, and instead, many were granted citizenship,” he stated.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty open lower amid weak global cues post Trump tariffs

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Mumbai, April 4: Indian frontline indices opened in the red on Friday following global sell-off in the equity markets in reaction to the reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump.

At 9:23 am, Sensex was down 544 points or 0.71 per cent at 75,750 and Nifty was down 194 points or 0.82 per cent at 23,059.

Midcap and smalcap stocks witnessed selling pressure in the early trading hour. Nifty midcap 100 index was down 669 points or 1.34 per cent at 51,464 and Nifty small 100 index was down 253 points or 1.56 per cent at 16,001.

On the sectoral front, auto, IT, PSU bank, pharma, FMCG, metal, realty and energy were major laggards. Only finance services was trading with gains.

In the Sensex pack, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel and M&M were top gainers. Tata Motors, Tata Steel, L&T, IndusInd Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Infosys and Tech Mahindra were the top losers.

Following the announcement of Trump tariffs, global markets experienced jitters overnight, leading to a gap-down opening indicated by the Gift Nifty.

Selling was seen in most Asian markets. Tokyo, Bangkok and Seoul were in the red.

The US markets witnessed a massive sell-off on Thursday after reciprocal tariffs were announced. The Dow closed by nearly 4 per cent down and the technology index Nasdaq down by nearly 6 per cent.

On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended their selling streak for the fourth consecutive session on April 3, offloading equities worth Rs 2,806 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers for the fifth consecutive day, purchasing equities worth Rs 221.47 crore.

According to market observers, on the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 23,350, followed by 23,600 for Nifty.

“A breakout beyond these levels could trigger a continuation of the uptrend, targeting the 200 DSMA in the 24,000–24,100 range. While the index may remain range-bound in the near term, stock-specific trades are offering better opportunities, and traders should focus on individual names for potential gains,” said Sameet Chavan, Head Research, Technical and Derivative – Angel One.

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National

Amit Shah to visit J&K for three days from April 6, hold security review meets

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Jammu, April 4: Union Home Minister Amit Shah will be on a three-day visit to Jammu and Kashmir from April 6 to hold security review meetings and inaugurate development projects.

The Home Minister will chair two important security review meetings and will also virtually inaugurate some developmental projects.

HM Shah, as per sources, will hold a meeting with the BJP MLAs in Jammu on April 6. He will take feedback from the BJP MLAs, especially about the budget session of the Legislative Assembly, which will resume on April 7 after a 12-day break. The session is scheduled to adjourn sine die on April 9.

The performance of the BJP MLAs in the Assembly during the first budget session of the present government will come up for review during the meeting.

He will review the political situation in the union territory with the party MLAs. Shah will be in Jammu till the afternoon of April 7 and then proceed to Srinagar. He will return to Delhi on April 8. Minister of State (PMO) Dr Jitendra Singh will join the home minister in Jammu.

Amit Shah is scheduled to undertake a tour of the International Border in Jammu. He will meet the family members of police martyrs.

Two terrorists were killed, and four police personnel were martyred in the Kathua encounter last week.

In Srinagar, the home minister will chair two separate security review meetings of Unified Headquarters and the annual pilgrimage of Shri Amarnath Yatra.

He will be dedicating a number of multi-crore projects to the people of the UT through virtual inauguration and a foundation stone laying ceremony.

During Shah’s Unified Headquarters meeting, a strategy for ensuring zero infiltration and the elimination of terrorists from the mountains and forests of the Jammu region besides the Kashmir Valley will be reviewed, sources said.

Union Home Secretary Govind Mohan, MHA officials dealing with Jammu and Kashmir, heads of Intelligence agencies and paramilitary forces will also join Amit Shah in security review meetings.

The second security review meeting will be held exclusively for security and other arrangements for the annual Shri Amarnath Yatra, scheduled to start on July 3 and end on August 9.

The Home Minister will also inaugurate and lay the foundation stone of multi-crore projects virtually from Srinagar.

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah will also be joining the function for the dedication of developmental projects by HM Shah.

The CM is likely to have a separate meeting with the Home Minister.

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