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Selloff 2022: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) or Fair Weather Friends

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The sharpest rate hike of 75 basis points since 1994 by the US Federal Reserve is the latest flashpoint in the global and Indian stock markets reeling under massive selling pressure of foreign investors.

Indian and global markets too slumped on Thursday over recessionary fear after the US Fed raised interest rates by 75 bps, the biggest increase since 1994. Further, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled another big move (50-75 bps hike) next month, intensifying its fight to contain rampant inflation.

It has sharply increased the interest rate target to 3.4 per cent for 2022 and 3.8 per cent for 2023, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Sorbh Gupta, Fund Manager, Equity, Quantum AMC, said in a note that May has seen FPI outflows of $5.17 billion. This has been the thirst worst month of FPI flows since FPI investments were allowed to invest in India in 1991.

“Interestingly, of the five ‘worst ever’ months of FPI flows, 4 have come in this calendar year. Domestic institutional investors (mutual funds and insurance put together) have been net buyers for May 2022 to the tune of $6.57 billion,” he added.

Equity investors who have invested in equity markets in the last two-three years have seen mostly positive returns and a swift recovery after every correction. The current volatility and slow grind of the markets will test their patience, Gupta said.

S&P BSE SENSEX declined by (-) 2.16 per cent on a total return basis in the month of May 2022.

It has underperformed developed market indices like S&P 500 (0.18 per cent) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (0.32 per cent). S&P BSE SENSEX has also underperformed MSCI Emerging Market Index (0.46 per cent). The broader market has been weaker, S&P BSE Midcap Index has declined by (-) 5.5 per cent for the month & S&P BSE Small cap Index declined by 7.8 per cent.

The power and metal sectors which have been hogging the limelight over the past few months were the biggest losers, falling by 11.3 per cent and 15.5 per cent, respectively. The BSE Auto Index was the only sectoral indices in the green moving up by 4.9 per cent.

Yes Bank said in a note that the higher current account deficit will not be fully covered by capital flows in FY23. India has already witnessed FII outflows of $30.5 billion since October 2021 and $9.4 billion since April 2022, from both debt and equity.

“Even as we expect FDI flows to stay on a strong footing (though weaker than the previous fiscal) and short-term trade finance to remain buoyant, overall flows under the capital account is expected at around $55 billion in FY23, compared to $94 billion in FY 22,” the note said.

The risks of a lower BoP balance cannot be ruled out in the event of larger outflows than being currently anticipated.

As per the IIF, capital flows to EM, including India, are expected to slow to $972 billion this year from $1.68 trillion in 2021, a decline of 42 per cent YoY.

Excluding China, the net capital flows are likely to drop to $645 billion, down from $1 trillion last year. The underlying weak fundamentals of the EM economies on account of higher oil prices, high Current Account Deficit (CAD), elevated general government debt to GDP ratio and limited fiscal space to support growth is likely to limit the possibility of much capital pull into the region, Yes Bank said.

In FY 2021-22 alone, FIIs sold their investments for approximately worth Rs 1.22 lakh crore as against FY 2020-21 where they invested around Rs 2.67 lakh crore. There are multiple reasons because of which FIIs started pulling out their investments from the Indian markets since the last financial year, Angel One said in a note.

The Russia-Ukraine war took centre stage in the last week of February. Uncertainties and geopolitical complexities that arose due to this war have created a fear among foreign investors. This has resulted in the FIIs outflows in India.

India is the third largest consumer of crude oil and is also the third largest importer of crude oil across the globe. The heat of the Russia-Ukraine war had a massive impact on the global economy as the crude oil prices spiked. These soaring crude prices turned the Indian stock market volatile and resulted in the increase in the costs of transportation and an increase in inflation. This impact on the economy and imports influenced foreign investors’ sentiments which pushed them to pull their money out of the Indian stock market, Angel One said in a note.

Indian markets are aligned with the US and the other global markets which means if the other markets start falling, Indian markets will also be impacted. Among the major reasons that are recently affecting the US economy are higher inflation, an expected rise in the interest rate to control inflation and rising inflation has led to a sharp jump in the US bond yields.

Business

₹122-Crore New India Co-op Bank Scam: EOW Searches Ex-Chairman’s Home; Hitesh Mehta’s Lie Detector Test Set For March 11

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Mumbai: The Mumbai police’s economic offences wing (EOW) has searched the residence of New India Cooperative Bank’s former chairman Hiren Bhanu in connection with the embezzlement of Rs 122 crore at the lender, officials said on Wednesday.

EOW Recovers Several Documents

During the search, EOW recovered several documents, which police are examining, an official said.

The house search was conducted in the Malabar Hill area of south Mumbai, where Hiren Bhanu and his wife Gauri Bhanu stayed in a rented flat, an official said. Gauri previously held the position of vice chairman at the bank.

The couple also own a flat at Nepean Sea Road which they have rented out, an official said. Both are wanted accused in the Rs 122-crore embezzlement case.

The EOW team is identifying the couple’s properties and also ascertaining whether they were acquired with the proceeds of the crime, he said.

About The Lie Detector Test

Meanwhile, the agency will conduct a lie detector test on Hitesh Mehta, former general manager and head of the accounts of the bank, on March 11, the official said.

Mehta is not cooperating and is hiding some important facts concerning the case, due to which he has not given his consent for the test, he said. But the court has permitted the police to conduct the forensic psychological test on Mehta, the official said.

The EOW is probing what prompted the Reserve Bank of India’s inspection team to visit the bank in February 2025.

As per the balance sheets of the bank, as of March 31, 2019, it had Rs 33.71 crore in cash which rose to Rs 99 crore on March 31, 2020. It’s almost a three-fold jump, he said.

On March 31, 2021, the figure further increased to 194 crore and it was Rs 105 crore in 2022. At some point in the current financial year, the amount rose to even Rs 152 crore. Police are examining why the RBI team conducted an inspection last month and not in some of the previous years, the official said.

So far, police have arrested four persons in connection with the embezzlement, and four accused are still at large, he added.

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Business

Bombay HC To Decide GST Rate On Donuts And Cakes: 5% As Restaurant Service Or 18% As Bakery Product?

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Mumbai: The Bombay High Court is set to decide whether donuts and cakes should be classified under restaurant services, attracting 5% GST, or as bakery products, which could be taxed up to 18%.

A bench of Justices BP Colabawalla and Firdosh Pooniwalla was hearing a plea by Mad Over Donuts (Himesh Foods) against a show-cause notice (SCN) issued by the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI).

The Court recorded the DGGI’s assurance that no coercive recovery action would be taken against the petitioner while the case is pending. It also clarified that the petitioner could seek a stay if any recovery notice is issued.

The DGGI has demanded nearly Rs100 crore in tax dues from Mad Over Donuts and other bakery chains, arguing that donuts should be taxed as bakery products rather than under restaurant services.

The petitioner’s counsel, Abhishek Rastogi, contended that the supply of food, whether consumed on-site or taken away, qualifies as a composite supply of services under the CGST Act. He cited GST notifications that include restaurant, canteen, and takeaway services under the 5% tax bracket. He also referred to a government circular that supports classifying takeaway food under restaurant services.

Additionally, the petitioner raised procedural concerns regarding the DGGI’s issuance of a centralised SCN covering multiple GST registrations. He argued that separate notices should be issued for each jurisdiction to ensure clarity and fairness.

The DGGI’s counsel, Jitendra Mishra, clarified that no recovery notice had been issued so far, and the Court accepted this as an undertaking. The HC has directed the tax authorities to file their replies by March 17 and scheduled the matter for hearing on March 24.

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Hyundai has big plans for EV exports from India

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New Delhi, March 5: India will play a key role as a manufacturing hub in achieving Hyundai Motor Company’s aim of selling 20 lakh electric vehicles in the global market by 2030, according to the company’s president and CEO Jose Munoz.

Addressing Hyundai Motor India employees at a town hall meeting in the company’s headquarters in Gurugram on the outskirts of Delhi, he said the company’s new factory that is coming up at Talegaon in Maharashtra would not only help meet domestic demand but also position HMIL as a global manufacturing hub.

HMIL aims to reach a total annual production capacity of 1.1 million vehicles when its facility at Talegaon becomes fully operational. The company HMC will continue to support HMIL to expand its EV offering and invest in the necessary infrastructure to support this shift, he added.

To meet the growing demand for vehicles, HMIL’s upcoming manufacturing facility in Talegaon will play an important role in improving local manufacturing capabilities. HMIL is dedicated to making EVs more accessible and suited to Indian consumers’ needs, aligning with the country’s push for green and eco-friendly vehicles. mobility solutions.

Munoz said, “India is the third-largest market in Hyundai’s global operations. HMIL’s IPO has helped HMC to invest and expand in new products and additional production capacity in India. HMIL has emerged as a world-class automotive manufacturing and regional export hub and is integral to Hyundai’s global vision.”

In a statement, HMIL said, “Muñoz’s visit reinforced HMC’s commitment to HMIL while highlighting the overarching strategic goals, exploring new opportunities and fostering a culture of collaboration, innovation, and excellence. He also emphasized the importance of Hyundai’s customer-centric philosophy and achieving the highest standards of quality and customer care to ensure sustainable success amid the rapidly evolving business environment.

He reinforced HMC’s unwavering support to HMIL’s commitment towards India by continuing to contribute actively towards building a ‘Viksit Bharat’, the statement added.

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