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Selloff 2022: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) or Fair Weather Friends

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The sharpest rate hike of 75 basis points since 1994 by the US Federal Reserve is the latest flashpoint in the global and Indian stock markets reeling under massive selling pressure of foreign investors.

Indian and global markets too slumped on Thursday over recessionary fear after the US Fed raised interest rates by 75 bps, the biggest increase since 1994. Further, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled another big move (50-75 bps hike) next month, intensifying its fight to contain rampant inflation.

It has sharply increased the interest rate target to 3.4 per cent for 2022 and 3.8 per cent for 2023, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Sorbh Gupta, Fund Manager, Equity, Quantum AMC, said in a note that May has seen FPI outflows of $5.17 billion. This has been the thirst worst month of FPI flows since FPI investments were allowed to invest in India in 1991.

“Interestingly, of the five ‘worst ever’ months of FPI flows, 4 have come in this calendar year. Domestic institutional investors (mutual funds and insurance put together) have been net buyers for May 2022 to the tune of $6.57 billion,” he added.

Equity investors who have invested in equity markets in the last two-three years have seen mostly positive returns and a swift recovery after every correction. The current volatility and slow grind of the markets will test their patience, Gupta said.

S&P BSE SENSEX declined by (-) 2.16 per cent on a total return basis in the month of May 2022.

It has underperformed developed market indices like S&P 500 (0.18 per cent) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (0.32 per cent). S&P BSE SENSEX has also underperformed MSCI Emerging Market Index (0.46 per cent). The broader market has been weaker, S&P BSE Midcap Index has declined by (-) 5.5 per cent for the month & S&P BSE Small cap Index declined by 7.8 per cent.

The power and metal sectors which have been hogging the limelight over the past few months were the biggest losers, falling by 11.3 per cent and 15.5 per cent, respectively. The BSE Auto Index was the only sectoral indices in the green moving up by 4.9 per cent.

Yes Bank said in a note that the higher current account deficit will not be fully covered by capital flows in FY23. India has already witnessed FII outflows of $30.5 billion since October 2021 and $9.4 billion since April 2022, from both debt and equity.

“Even as we expect FDI flows to stay on a strong footing (though weaker than the previous fiscal) and short-term trade finance to remain buoyant, overall flows under the capital account is expected at around $55 billion in FY23, compared to $94 billion in FY 22,” the note said.

The risks of a lower BoP balance cannot be ruled out in the event of larger outflows than being currently anticipated.

As per the IIF, capital flows to EM, including India, are expected to slow to $972 billion this year from $1.68 trillion in 2021, a decline of 42 per cent YoY.

Excluding China, the net capital flows are likely to drop to $645 billion, down from $1 trillion last year. The underlying weak fundamentals of the EM economies on account of higher oil prices, high Current Account Deficit (CAD), elevated general government debt to GDP ratio and limited fiscal space to support growth is likely to limit the possibility of much capital pull into the region, Yes Bank said.

In FY 2021-22 alone, FIIs sold their investments for approximately worth Rs 1.22 lakh crore as against FY 2020-21 where they invested around Rs 2.67 lakh crore. There are multiple reasons because of which FIIs started pulling out their investments from the Indian markets since the last financial year, Angel One said in a note.

The Russia-Ukraine war took centre stage in the last week of February. Uncertainties and geopolitical complexities that arose due to this war have created a fear among foreign investors. This has resulted in the FIIs outflows in India.

India is the third largest consumer of crude oil and is also the third largest importer of crude oil across the globe. The heat of the Russia-Ukraine war had a massive impact on the global economy as the crude oil prices spiked. These soaring crude prices turned the Indian stock market volatile and resulted in the increase in the costs of transportation and an increase in inflation. This impact on the economy and imports influenced foreign investors’ sentiments which pushed them to pull their money out of the Indian stock market, Angel One said in a note.

Indian markets are aligned with the US and the other global markets which means if the other markets start falling, Indian markets will also be impacted. Among the major reasons that are recently affecting the US economy are higher inflation, an expected rise in the interest rate to control inflation and rising inflation has led to a sharp jump in the US bond yields.

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Sensex, Nifty trade muted in early deals amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, May 27: Domestic equity markets traded on a muted note in early deals on Wednesday amid mixed global cues and a decline in crude oil prices.

Sensex was trading at 76,050, up 40 points or 0.05 per cent in the morning session, while Nifty rose 20 points or 0.08 per cent to 23,932. Earlier, the benchmark indices opened at 75,939.86 and 23,880.35, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal emerged as the top gainer, climbing 1.59 per cent, followed by Nifty Cement, which advanced 0.83 per cent. Nifty Media, Realty and Consumer Durables also traded higher, rising up to 0.67 per cent.

On the other hand, Nifty Oil & Gas was the top loser, falling 0.66 per cent. While private banks, financial services and IT indices also traded in the red, declining up to 0.33 per cent.

Among Nifty stocks, selling pressure was visible in select heavyweight counters, with Coal India dropping over 4 per cent and ONGC slipping nearly 3 per cent. HDFC Bank, Infosys and Wipro also remained under pressure.

Meanwhile, the volatility index India VIX gained 0.68 per cent to trade around 16.

According to analysts, the near-term market tone remains cautious but stable, as recent profit booking at higher levels indicates some consolidation after the sharp recovery phase.

“Despite intermittent weakness, controlled volatility and balanced market breadth suggest that broader sentiment has not deteriorated significantly,” they added.

Meanwhile, Iran on Tuesday accused the United States of violating the ceasefire by carrying out strikes near the disputed Strait of Hormuz, while Washington maintained that the attacks were defensive in nature.

In the commodity market, crude oil prices declined, with international benchmark Brent crude falling 1.73 per cent to $97.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped over 2 per cent to $91.87 per barrel.

In Asia, markets traded mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined nearly 1 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI rose up to almost 5 per cent.

Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.61 per cent and the Nasdaq closing 1.19 per cent higher.

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Indian equity markets trade flat after fresh US strikes in Iran

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Mumbai, May 26: Indian equity markets traded flat in morning trade on Tuesday after fresh US strikes in southern Iran targeting boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites.

In early trade, Sensex was at 76,339.29, down 150 points or 0.20 per cent, while Nifty slipped 45 points or 0.19 per cent to 23,986.40. Earlier in the day, the benchmark indices opened at 76,224.14 and 24,004.10, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, IT, chemicals, media, PSU banks and metal stocks traded in positive territory.

Nifty IT rose 0.61 per cent, while Nifty Chemicals gained 0.58 per cent and Nifty Media advanced 0.54 per cent.

On the downside, consumer durables, healthcare, cement and realty indices were under pressure. Nifty Consumer Durables emerged as the top sectoral loser, falling 0.57 per cent, while Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Cement and Nifty Realty declined up to 0.3 per cent.

From the Nifty basket, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) declined over 1 per cent, emerging as one of the top laggards on the benchmark indices. Other notable losers included SBI Life Insurance Company, Max Healthcare Institute, Titan Company, Bharti Airtel, Eternal Ltd and Trent, which fell up to 1 per cent.

In the broader market, small-cap and mid-cap indices outperformed. Nifty Smallcap 100 climbed 0.59 per cent, while Nifty Midcap 150 gained 0.13 per cent.

Meanwhile, the volatility tracker India VIX slipped 1.43 per cent.

Market experts said that despite ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the West Asia conflict, there are no indications of an immediate resolution.

They noted that the recent US “self-defence strikes” in southern Iran have temporarily dampened sentiment, although markets are not viewing the development as the beginning of another phase of military escalation.

According to experts, investor risk appetite remains strong, with markets rallying whenever there are signs of easing tensions and a decline in crude oil prices.

“The sharp rally in the previous session reflected optimism about the resilience of the domestic economy,” they added.

However, experts believe that a resolution of the conflict and a further decline in crude oil prices could help ease macroeconomic pressures facing the economy.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose, with international benchmark Brent crude gaining 1.17 per cent to $98.39 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed more than 3 per cent to $93.90 per barrel.

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CNG Prices Hiked Again By ₹2: Have Rates Increased In Mumbai Too? Find Out Here

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Mumbai: CNG consumers have received temporary relief as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) prices in the city have not been increased despite another fuel hike announced in Delhi and the NCR on Tuesday.

While Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) raised CNG prices in Delhi by Rs 2 per kg, taking rates to Rs 83.09 per kg from May 26, Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) has kept CNG prices unchanged across Mumbai and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).

This means CNG in Mumbai continues to remain priced at Rs 84 per kg, following the earlier hike implemented by MGL earlier this month. The latest Delhi revision marks the fourth CNG price increase in less than two weeks amid rising global energy prices and pressure on domestic fuel retailers.

Although there has been no fresh hike in Mumbai today, auto-rickshaw unions in the city have already renewed their demand for a fare revision after the previous Rs 2 per kg increase announced by MGL on May 14.

Mumbai’s auto unions have argued that rising fuel costs and inflation have increased operating expenses for drivers. Union representatives recently met transport department officials and submitted revised fare calculations based on recommendations of the B Khatua Committee.

At present, the minimum auto-rickshaw fare in Mumbai stands at Rs 26, while passengers are charged Rs 17.14 per kilometre after the base fare. According to union calculations, the per-kilometre fare should now increase to Rs 18.17.

“The expenses on fuel have increased substantially for auto-rickshaw drivers. Inflation and higher Consumer Price Index levels have also affected daily running costs,” Mumbai Rickshawmen’s Union General Secretary Thampi Kurien had said while demanding a fare hike.

The latest developments come at a time when petrol and diesel prices have witnessed repeated hikes across the country over the past two weeks, increasing concerns over transportation costs and inflationary pressure in Mumbai and other metro cities.

Despite today’s relief for Mumbai commuters, transport operators and auto unions are closely monitoring fuel pricing trends amid fears that further increases in global crude oil and gas prices could eventually impact CNG rates in the city as well.

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