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RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising key lending rate from April

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The RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising the key lending rate from its next review meeting in April, Crisil Research said.

Notably, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on February 10, retained key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22.

Besides, the growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained to give a push to economic activity.

The MPC of the central bank maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Likewise, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the ‘Bank Rate’ at 4.25 per cent.

“Risks have increased from the external front. First, Brent crude prices have jumped from $74.3 per barrel on average in December 2021 to over $90 now,” it said.

Moreover, Crisil Research expects Brent crude prices to average $80-85 in 2022, the highest since 2015.

“Elevated crude oil prices have an adverse impact on India’s macros such as the current account deficit, inflation, GDP growth, and in some cases, the fiscal deficit.”

In the past, the RBI has raised rates when crude oil prices rose, such as in 2010, 2011 and 2018.

“Second, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate at the fastest pace seen after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’.”

“The Fed will have taken seven years after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ to raise its funds rate for the first time, and two years after Covid-19 pandemic began. The projected number of hikes in 2022 are also much higher than seen at the peak of Fed tightening after the aGlobal Financial Crisis’.”

Interestingly, peak tightening in 2018 had coincided with repo rate hikes by the RBI.

Furthermore, it cited that primary target of RBI, CPI inflation, remains within its comfort band of 2-6 per cent.

“However, it faces upside risks from rising crude oil prices. This is expected to be partially offset by lower excise duties on fuel compared with last year.”

“Meanwhile, we believe firms facing sustained cost pressure would pass it on to a great extent to consumers next fiscal as demand strengthens.”

As per Crisil Research, a modest reduction is expected in CPI inflation from 5.5 per cent this fiscal to 5.2 per cent in the next.

“Summing up, we expect the MPC to begin raising the repo rate from its next review meeting in April.”

“Following that, we expect two more hikes of 25 bps each next fiscal, which will take repo rate to 4.75 per cent by March 2023.”

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IndusInd Bank shares tumble over 6 pc after Q1 results

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New Delhi, July 23: Shares of private sector banking stock IndusInd Bank fell more than 6 per cent in early trade on Thursday after the bank posted its June quarter earnings.

The banking stock plunged as much as 6.29 per cent to 1002.50, hitting an intraday low of Rs 1,002.50 on the BSE at around 11:50 am.

At the last count, the stock was trading at Rs 1,006.75, a decrease of 5.90 per cent.

The selling pressure in the banking stock came after the private lender reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,037.05 crore for the first quarter of FY27 on Wednesday, compared with Rs 604.07 crore in the corresponding period last year.

The earnings were supported by a 21 per cent decline in provisions and contingencies, which stood at Rs 1,384 crore.

The lender’s net interest income (NII) rose 1 per cent year-on-year to Rs 4,685 crore, while its gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio improved to 3.25 per cent. Gross slippages also declined to Rs 1,660 crore from Rs 2,567 crore a year ago.

Earlier in June, the bank witnessed selling pressure after reports claimed a complaint seeking an investigation into alleged insider trading, governance lapses, and audit shortcomings at the bank.

The selling pressure in shares followed reports suggesting that a whistleblower had approached multiple authorities — including the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO), the National Financial Reporting Authority (NFRA) and other agencies.

According to them, the complaint alleged insider trading, manipulation of financial records, evergreening of microfinance loans, suppression of audit findings and attempts by senior management and board members to conceal irregularities.

Additionally, the stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,077.80 and a 52-week low of Rs 710.85 on Thursday on the BSE.

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Indian Railways records sharp decline in accidents, safety budget hiked 3-fold

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New Delhi, July 22: There has been a sharp decline in train accidents in the country over the last 12 years as a result of the high priority being accorded to safety on Indian Railways.

The annual budgetary allocation for safety has shot up more than three-fold from Rs 39,200 crore in 2013-14 to Rs 1,20,389 crore in 2026-27, the Centre told the Parliament on Wednesday.

The number of “consequential accidents” came down from 135 in 2014-15 to 16 in 2025-26 and only two accidents have been reported in 2026-27 till June this year, Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said in a written reply to a query in the Lok Sabha.

“The causes of the accidents that took place over Indian Railways broadly include track defects, locomotive or coach defects, equipment failures, human errors, etc. Rail safety has now been strengthened through modern technology, infrastructure and enhanced maintenance. As many as 6,671 stations have been equipped with electronic interlocking and complete track circuiting while 10,395 level crossing gates have also been brought under the interlocking system to minimise human errors,” Union Minister Vaishnaw noted.

Complete track circuiting of these railway stations has been undertaken to enhance safety by verification of track occupancy by electrical means.

Detailed instructions on issues related with safety of signalling, for example, mandatory correspondence check, alteration work protocol, preparation of completion drawing, etc. have been issued.

The Indian Railways has added 36,429 track kilometres during 2014–26, which is more than 2.5 times higher than 2004–14 which has enhanced track safety.

Modernisation of rolling stock and maintenance practices strengthens safety, with LHB coach production rising more than 21 times to 49,366 during 2014–26 and weld failures reduced by 93 per cent.

The indigenously developed Kavach 4.0 safety system has been successfully commissioned on 2,490 route kilometres covering the high-density Delhi–Mumbai and Delhi–Howrah routes.

Kavach implementation work is also under progress on 21,937 route kilometres, with installation being taken up on 7,435 locomotives and 1,200 EMU/MEMU trains.

The amount utilised for Kavach works so far up to June 2026 is Rs 3874.9 crore.

The allocation of funds during the year 2026-27 is Rs 2066.24 crore.

Requisite funds are made available as per the progress of works.

In reply to another query, Union Minister Vaishnaw said that at present, recruitment against 1,61,889 vacancies of non-gazetted personnel has been taken up on Indian Railways as per annual calendar 2024, 2025 and 2026.

During January to December 2024, ten Centralised Employment Notifications for 92,116 vacancies were notified for filling up of posts of Assistant Loco Pilots, technicians, Sub-Inspectors, Constables in Railway Protection Force (RPF), Junior Engineers, Depot Material Superintendent, Chemical and Metallurgical Assistant, Paramedical Categories, Non-Technical Popular Categories (Graduate), Non-Technical Popular Categories (Under-Graduate), Ministerial and Isolated Categories and Level-1 categories such as Assistants, Track Maintainers and Pointsman.

First stage/Single stage Computer Based Tests for 92,116 posts have been completed.

“During 2026-2027 (up to June 30, 2026) panels for more than 3,300 candidates for various posts, including the posts of Technicians, Junior Engineers, Paramedical Categories, Ministerial and Isolated categories and Assistant Loco Pilots have been finalised. Majority of them are in safety categories,” Union Minister added.

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Sensex, Nifty post early losses over rising crude prices, new US tariff plan

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Mumbai, July 22: The Indian equity markets posted notable losses early on Wednesday, weighed down by the US-Iran conflict and rising Brent crude prices.

Sensex lost 371 points, or 0.48 per cent, to reach 77,097 in morning trade while Nifty shed 106 points, or 0.44 per cent, to reach 24,081.

Main broad-cap indices performed in line with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 lost 0.16 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 dipped 0.33 per cent.

Sectoral indices on NSE traded mostly in red, led by losses of Nifty pharma and mid small healthcare, down 0.99 per cent and 0.93 per cent, respectively, amid the fresh US phased tariff plan on generic drugs. Nifty PSU bank also logged strong losses, down 0.86 per cent.

Auto was the major gainer, up 0.79 per cent. FMCG, Metal and consumer gainers were the only other gainers, adding 0.09 to 0.15 per cent.

“The early automobile Q1 numbers are impressive, exports and management commentary reflect optimism. The price correction in a few leading banks is apparently over. Rupee is likely to remain stable buoyed by positive news on the dollar flows from FCNR deposits which has crossed $20 billion now. The inflows are likely to gather momentum, going forward,” an analyst said.

Weakening of the chip trade and sharp correction in markets like South Korea during the last one month are making India relatively stable and attractive from the valuation perspective, he added

In the previous session, the Nifty 50 extended its corrective phase for the second consecutive day, declining 0.2 per cent and closing below the 24,200 mark. The index largely traded within the previous session’s range, reflecting indecisiveness among market participants, analysts noted.

The immediate support for Nifty is placed at 24,100, followed by 24,000 level. On the upside, the 24,300–24,400 zone remains a key hurdle for the bulls, market participants said.

Meanwhile, Asian markets traded higher in early deals, tracking technology-led gains on Wall Street as investors awaited earnings from major US technology companies.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index gained 0.35 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.36 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1.93 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index eased 0.69 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 4.31 per cent.

The US markets ended in green overnight as Nasdaq gained 1.29 per cent. The S&P 500 advanced 0.89 per cent, and the Dow Jones added 0.74 per cent.

On July 21, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought equities worth Rs 1,650 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 656 crore.

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