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RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising key lending rate from April

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The RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising the key lending rate from its next review meeting in April, Crisil Research said.

Notably, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on February 10, retained key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22.

Besides, the growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained to give a push to economic activity.

The MPC of the central bank maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Likewise, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the ‘Bank Rate’ at 4.25 per cent.

“Risks have increased from the external front. First, Brent crude prices have jumped from $74.3 per barrel on average in December 2021 to over $90 now,” it said.

Moreover, Crisil Research expects Brent crude prices to average $80-85 in 2022, the highest since 2015.

“Elevated crude oil prices have an adverse impact on India’s macros such as the current account deficit, inflation, GDP growth, and in some cases, the fiscal deficit.”

In the past, the RBI has raised rates when crude oil prices rose, such as in 2010, 2011 and 2018.

“Second, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate at the fastest pace seen after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’.”

“The Fed will have taken seven years after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ to raise its funds rate for the first time, and two years after Covid-19 pandemic began. The projected number of hikes in 2022 are also much higher than seen at the peak of Fed tightening after the aGlobal Financial Crisis’.”

Interestingly, peak tightening in 2018 had coincided with repo rate hikes by the RBI.

Furthermore, it cited that primary target of RBI, CPI inflation, remains within its comfort band of 2-6 per cent.

“However, it faces upside risks from rising crude oil prices. This is expected to be partially offset by lower excise duties on fuel compared with last year.”

“Meanwhile, we believe firms facing sustained cost pressure would pass it on to a great extent to consumers next fiscal as demand strengthens.”

As per Crisil Research, a modest reduction is expected in CPI inflation from 5.5 per cent this fiscal to 5.2 per cent in the next.

“Summing up, we expect the MPC to begin raising the repo rate from its next review meeting in April.”

“Following that, we expect two more hikes of 25 bps each next fiscal, which will take repo rate to 4.75 per cent by March 2023.”

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Consumers brace for 3-day bank strike; certain banks open on Sunday

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New Delhi, Sep 27: State Bank of India (SBI), Bank of Baroda (BoB), Punjab National Bank (PNB) and several other public sector banks are open on Sunday (September 27), giving customers an opportunity to complete their banking work before a proposed three-day nationwide bank strike from September 28 to September 30.

The special Sunday opening applies to public sector banks (PSBs) and regional rural banks (RRBs), following a direction aimed at ensuring the availability of regular banking services ahead of the proposed strike. Customers who need to visit a branch for important banking work can therefore use the additional working day, subject to the operational arrangements and staffing at individual branches.

The decision to open PSBs and RRBs on Sunday was taken following a meeting held on September 21 between officials from the Finance Ministry, public sector banks, regional rural banks, the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) and NABARD.

The move assumes significance as September 26 and 27 fall on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. With the proposed bank strike scheduled immediately after the weekend, customers could otherwise have faced several consecutive days with limited access to physical branch services. The Sunday opening has consequently been planned to provide an additional opportunity to complete important banking transactions before the strike.

Among the public sector banks operating today are State Bank of India, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, Bank of India, Indian Bank, Union Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra, UCO Bank, Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank and Punjab & Sind Bank.

The arrangement also covers 28 regional rural banks across the country. These include Andhra Pradesh Grameena Bank, Arunachal Pradesh Rural Bank, Assam Gramin Bank, Bihar Gramin Bank, Chhattisgarh Gramin Bank, Gujarat Gramin Bank, Haryana Gramin Bank, Himachal Pradesh Gramin Bank, Jammu and Kashmir Grameen Bank, Jharkhand Gramin Bank, Karnataka Grameena Bank, Kerala Grameena Bank, Madhya Pradesh Gramin Bank, Maharashtra Gramin Bank, Manipur Rural Bank, Meghalaya Rural Bank, Mizoram Rural Bank, Nagaland Rural Bank, Odisha Grameen Bank, Puducherry Grama Bank, Punjab Gramin Bank, Rajasthan Gramin Bank, Tamil Nadu Grama Bank, Telangana Grameena Bank, Tripura Gramin Bank, Uttar Pradesh Gramin Bank, Uttarakhand Gramin Bank and West Bengal Gramin Bank.

However, the Sunday opening arrangement does not automatically extend to private sector banks.

The special Sunday banking arrangement comes ahead of the proposed three-day nationwide strike called by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) and other bank unions from September 28 to September 30.

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Crude oil, global yields, FII flows among key factors to drive stock market next week

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Mumbai, Sep 27: After ending lower for the seventh consecutive week, the Indian stock market is likely to take cues from crude oil prices, global bond yields, foreign fund flows, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and key US economic data releases in the coming week.

Market sentiment remained subdued through most of the week, with indices trading in a narrow range during the initial sessions. However, a sharp sell-off on Thursday weighed heavily on investor confidence before value buying in select blue-chip stocks helped the market recover on Friday.

The Sensex rose 315.20 points, or 0.43 per cent, to close at 73,895.74 on Friday, while the Nifty gained 77.40 points, or 0.34 per cent, to settle at 23,140.50. Buying interest was seen in banking, oil and gas, and automobile stocks after the recent correction pushed several large-cap counters to attractive valuations.

Going into the new week, crude oil prices are expected to remain one of the most important triggers for the equity market. With Brent crude continuing to hover above the $100-per-barrel level, concerns over inflationary pressures, higher import costs and pressure on corporate margins remain elevated.

However, the recent easing in oil prices has provided some relief to investors. Market participants will closely monitor crude price movements as any fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions could once again drive prices higher.

Global bond yields will also be closely tracked following the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. Rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar could dampen risk appetite and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, including India. Conversely, any moderation in yields may provide support to equities and improve investor sentiment.

Geopolitical developments surrounding the ongoing US-Iran conflict are another key factor on investors’ radar. Iran has reportedly proposed a seven-day framework aimed at restoring normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for easing sanctions and broader ceasefire measures.

Any progress toward de-escalation could help stabilise energy markets, while renewed tensions may increase volatility across global financial markets.

Foreign institutional investor (FII) activity will remain crucial after sustained selling pressure in recent weeks. Analysts believe strong participation from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and oversold market conditions could aid intermittent rebounds.

However, a lasting recovery will depend on stability in crude oil prices, easing global yields, improvement in geopolitical conditions and moderation in foreign fund outflows.

Investors will also closely watch a series of key US economic data releases scheduled next week. The data is expected to provide further clues on the health of the world’s largest economy, inflation trends and the likely trajectory of interest rates. The outcome could influence global risk sentiment and impact flows into equity markets worldwide.

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Bank strike: Customers urged to finish key transactions before 3-day nationwide protest

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New Delhi, Sep 26: Customers of several public sector and old-generation private sector banks have been advised to complete important banking transactions in advance as bank employees’ unions prepare for a three-day nationwide strike starting September 28. The proposed strike is expected to disrupt branch operations across many banks and coincides with the sector’s crucial half-yearly closing period.

The strike has been called by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), which claims to represent nearly 90 per cent of the country’s banking workforce.

The unions are pressing for the implementation of a five-day banking week, along with pension-related reforms and other employee welfare measures.

In a bid to reduce inconvenience to customers, the government has directed public sector banks to remain open on Sunday, September 27, enabling customers to complete urgent transactions before the strike begins.

State Bank of India (SBI) has issued an advisory stating that while it will make efforts to maintain essential services at branches and offices, some banking operations could be affected during the strike period.

The bank has urged customers to complete critical transactions ahead of time and make use of digital banking channels, including YONO, internet banking, mobile banking, UPI, ATMs and cash deposit machines, wherever possible.

Bank of India has also alerted customers about the planned strike and advised them to rely on the bank’s round-the-clock digital platforms such as internet banking, mobile banking, ATMs, business correspondent points and UPI services for their banking requirements.

Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) are also expected to participate in the agitation, potentially widening the impact on banking services across the country.

However, new-generation private sector banks such as ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank are expected to continue normal operations, offering customers an alternative for routine banking services during the strike period.

Earlier this week, the Finance Ministry appealed to bank employees’ unions to avoid the strike and resolve pending issues through dialogue. The ministry maintained that a majority of the concerns raised by the unions have already been substantially addressed.

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