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RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising key lending rate from April

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The RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising the key lending rate from its next review meeting in April, Crisil Research said.

Notably, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on February 10, retained key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22.

Besides, the growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained to give a push to economic activity.

The MPC of the central bank maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Likewise, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the ‘Bank Rate’ at 4.25 per cent.

“Risks have increased from the external front. First, Brent crude prices have jumped from $74.3 per barrel on average in December 2021 to over $90 now,” it said.

Moreover, Crisil Research expects Brent crude prices to average $80-85 in 2022, the highest since 2015.

“Elevated crude oil prices have an adverse impact on India’s macros such as the current account deficit, inflation, GDP growth, and in some cases, the fiscal deficit.”

In the past, the RBI has raised rates when crude oil prices rose, such as in 2010, 2011 and 2018.

“Second, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate at the fastest pace seen after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’.”

“The Fed will have taken seven years after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ to raise its funds rate for the first time, and two years after Covid-19 pandemic began. The projected number of hikes in 2022 are also much higher than seen at the peak of Fed tightening after the aGlobal Financial Crisis’.”

Interestingly, peak tightening in 2018 had coincided with repo rate hikes by the RBI.

Furthermore, it cited that primary target of RBI, CPI inflation, remains within its comfort band of 2-6 per cent.

“However, it faces upside risks from rising crude oil prices. This is expected to be partially offset by lower excise duties on fuel compared with last year.”

“Meanwhile, we believe firms facing sustained cost pressure would pass it on to a great extent to consumers next fiscal as demand strengthens.”

As per Crisil Research, a modest reduction is expected in CPI inflation from 5.5 per cent this fiscal to 5.2 per cent in the next.

“Summing up, we expect the MPC to begin raising the repo rate from its next review meeting in April.”

“Following that, we expect two more hikes of 25 bps each next fiscal, which will take repo rate to 4.75 per cent by March 2023.”

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Petrol Crosses ₹107 In Mumbai After Second Fuel Price Hike In A Week Amid Iran Conflict; Diesel Rises To ₹94

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Mumbai: Residents of Mumbai are facing another increase in fuel prices after oil marketing companies on Tuesday raised petrol and diesel rates for the second time within a week amid rising global crude oil prices linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. With the latest revision, petrol prices in Mumbai have climbed by 91 paise to Rs 107.59 per litre, while diesel has become costlier by 94 paise and is now retailing at Rs 94.08 per litre.

The latest increase comes just three days after fuel prices were raised by Rs 3 per litre on Friday, majorly increasing transportation and commuting costs for Mumbaikars already dealing with inflationary pressure. The fresh hike is largely driven by the sharp surge in international crude oil prices due to tensions in West Asia, particularly disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran.

According to data released by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell under the Petroleum Ministry, the average price of India’s crude oil basket has jumped from USD 69.01 per barrel in February 2026 to USD 110.73 per barrel as of May 15, an increase of over 60 per cent in less than three months.

The situation has been worsened by disruptions in cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a major share of India’s crude oil imports traditionally passes. India imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements, making domestic fuel prices highly sensitive to global market fluctuations.

Mumbai, being one of the country’s largest metropolitan and commercial hubs, is likely to feel the impact more sharply due to its heavy dependence on road transport, logistics and daily commuting.

Taxi operators, app-based cab drivers and transporters have already started expressing concern over the rising operational costs. The repeated hikes are also expected to affect prices of essential goods and services, as transportation expenses rise across the supply chain.

Another factor contributing to the price rise is the weakening of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. With the rupee reportedly touching around 96 against the dollar, oil imports have become more expensive for Indian refiners and oil companies.

Despite the earlier Rs 3 increase, oil marketing companies were reportedly still facing losses after maintaining older fuel rates for nearly 10 weeks amid continuously rising global crude prices. It is also speculated that if geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue or escalate further, Mumbai and other major Indian cities could witness additional fuel price increases in the coming weeks.

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Panic Buying In Palghar Amid Fuel Shortage Rumours: Long Queue Seen At Petrol Pump Along Mumbai-Ahmedabad Highway

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Palghar: Long queues of vehicles, especially two-wheelers, were seen at petrol pumps along the Mumbai-Ahmedabad National Highway amid rumours of a fuel shortage. The motorists claimed that they were waiting for more than an hour to refill their vehicles.

the scenes were captured at the Asian Petrol Pump in Charoti, where long queues of vehicles stretched outside the fuel station as residents feared limited fuel availability. Not just this, the report also claimed that several petrol pumps across Palghar district reportedly witnessed similar crowds, with panic buying increasing after rumours of fuel supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the alleged rumours triggered people amid Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent appeal to citizens to reduce fuel consumption and adopt sustainable practices to help the country manage global economic disruptions.

Earlier on May 15, a similar scene was witnessed along the Maharashtra-Gujarat border, where long queues of vehicles were seen at several petrol pumps, as people rushed to fill petrol and diesel before the revised fuel rates came into effect. Visuals showed all kinds of vehicles, including trucks, cars, motorcycles and other commercial vehicles, lined up outside fuel stations, leading to heavy rush and congestion near the pumps.

Meanwhile, a similar incident was reported in Akola, where a scuffle broke out among farmers at a petrol pump over alleged fuel unavailability. Visuals showed several men fighting while standing in a crowded queue at the fuel station.

On May 10, PM Modi appealed to people to increasingly use public transport systems, including metro services, and adopt environmentally responsible practices to reduce pressure on fuel consumption and foreign exchange outflows.

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Maharashtra seeks FIRs against Ola, Uber, Rapido over alleged illegal bike taxi operations

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New Delhi, May 16: Maharashtra Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik has directed the Cyber Crime department to lodge FIRs against Ola, Uber and Rapido over alleged illegal bike taxi operations in the state.

The minister further clarified that app-based mobility platforms Ola, Uber and Rapido continue to operate in the state as we sought legal action against their alleged unauthorised bike taxi services.

The clarification came after reports circulated on social media claiming that the services of Ola, Uber and Rapido had been completely shut down in Maharashtra.

In a post on X, the Directorate General of Information and Public Relations (DGIPR), Maharashtra, said such reports were misleading and stated that the government’s action is limited only to illegal bike taxi operations.

“The claim circulating on social media that all services of Ola, Uber, and Rapido have been completely shut down in Maharashtra is misleading,” it said.

“The transport department has taken a strict stance against unauthorised bike taxi services operating illegally in the state,” DGIPR added.

According to the state government, Sarnaik has written to the Cyber Crime department requesting immediate action against unauthorised bike taxi app services operating through the three platforms.

The minister also asked the department to file FIRs against the companies over the alleged operations.

“Transport Minister Sarnaik has written to the cyber-crime department demanding the immediate shutdown of unauthorised bike taxi app services like Ola, Uber and Rapido and the filing of FIRs against the respective company owners,” it stated.

“At the same time, the Transport Commissioner has also sent a letter to the Cyber Crime department in this regard,” it added.

However, there is no official comment on the development from the companies yet.

Bike taxi services have repeatedly faced regulatory challenges in Maharashtra over concerns related to legality, licensing norms and compliance with transport regulations.

App-based mobility operators offering two-wheeler taxi services have also encountered policy-related hurdles in the state in the past, as authorities continue to examine the framework governing such operations.

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