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RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising key lending rate from April

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The RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising the key lending rate from its next review meeting in April, Crisil Research said.

Notably, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on February 10, retained key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22.

Besides, the growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained to give a push to economic activity.

The MPC of the central bank maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Likewise, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the ‘Bank Rate’ at 4.25 per cent.

“Risks have increased from the external front. First, Brent crude prices have jumped from $74.3 per barrel on average in December 2021 to over $90 now,” it said.

Moreover, Crisil Research expects Brent crude prices to average $80-85 in 2022, the highest since 2015.

“Elevated crude oil prices have an adverse impact on India’s macros such as the current account deficit, inflation, GDP growth, and in some cases, the fiscal deficit.”

In the past, the RBI has raised rates when crude oil prices rose, such as in 2010, 2011 and 2018.

“Second, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate at the fastest pace seen after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’.”

“The Fed will have taken seven years after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ to raise its funds rate for the first time, and two years after Covid-19 pandemic began. The projected number of hikes in 2022 are also much higher than seen at the peak of Fed tightening after the aGlobal Financial Crisis’.”

Interestingly, peak tightening in 2018 had coincided with repo rate hikes by the RBI.

Furthermore, it cited that primary target of RBI, CPI inflation, remains within its comfort band of 2-6 per cent.

“However, it faces upside risks from rising crude oil prices. This is expected to be partially offset by lower excise duties on fuel compared with last year.”

“Meanwhile, we believe firms facing sustained cost pressure would pass it on to a great extent to consumers next fiscal as demand strengthens.”

As per Crisil Research, a modest reduction is expected in CPI inflation from 5.5 per cent this fiscal to 5.2 per cent in the next.

“Summing up, we expect the MPC to begin raising the repo rate from its next review meeting in April.”

“Following that, we expect two more hikes of 25 bps each next fiscal, which will take repo rate to 4.75 per cent by March 2023.”

Business

CM Fadnavis flags off Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Circuit Bharat Gaurav train

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Mumbai, June 9: Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Monday flagged off the Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Circuit Railway service under the Gaurav Yatra of Indian Railways, saying that the journey will be an inspiring experience for all the passengers.

He further stated that the work of keeping alive the history of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and Independence will be done through this railway.

“Today, more than seven hundred passengers are travelling on this railway. 80 per cent of these passengers are below the age of forty, who are going today to see the history of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj. Passengers coming from all parts of the state will get the opportunity to experience history through this circuit railway. It has been 351 years since the coronation of Chhatrapati Shivaji. I am happy that this railway is starting service on this day,” said the chief minister.

Stating that Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj created Swarajya by defeating the Mughals and foreign invaders, CM Fadnavis said that later this Swarajya expanded to include the Attari.

“Today’s stop of this Gaurav Yatra will be at Raigad. Also, during this Yatra, important places like Shivneri, Lal Mahal, and Shivsruthi of Pune will be visited. Also, Goddess Ambabai of Kolhapur will be visited. Along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnav, I congratulate the state’s Cultural Affairs Minister Ashish Shelar and his department, the Tourism Department,” he said.

On this occasion, Chief Minister Fadnavis wished the passengers and congratulated them on travelling on this very first circuit yatra.

The 5-day special tour includes visits to important historical sites related to the life of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and history-based programmes. “The arrival of this glorious train at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus, Mumbai, in coordination with the Government of Maharashtra, will be a grand spectacle of Maharashtra’s culture. Tourists will be provided with detailed information about the tourist places at the places where the Bharat Gaurav train reaches,” said the government release.

The tour includes a visit to the Raigad Fort — Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj was crowned here and was the capital; Lal Mahal, Pune — Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj spent his childhood here; Kasba Ganapati and Shiva Culture, Pune — A museum on the life of Pune’s village deity and Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj; Shivneri Fort — Birthplace of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj; Bhimashankar Jyotirlinga — one of the major religious sites among the 12 Jyotirlingas; Pratapgad Fort — The site of the historic victory over Afzal Khan; Kolhapur — Mahalaxmi Temple; and Panhala Fort — a symbol of the bravery of Bajiprabhu Deshpande.

For making the experience of all the passengers pleasant and memorable, the Maharashtra Tourism Development Corporation officials, in coordination with AirCTC, will guide them at every stage. In this 5-day journey, from railway stations to the forts of the Maharajas, tourists will be able to enjoy while observing the footprints of history at every place.

Tourists travelling by train on Monday were welcomed at the railway station by the Maharashtra Tourism Development Corporation to the sound of traditional drums and cymbals, said the government release.

On this occasion, Assembly Speaker Rahul Narvekar, Cultural Affairs Minister Ashish Shelar, Cultural Department Secretary Vikas Kharge, Tourism Principal Secretary Atul Patne, Managing Director of Maharashtra Tourism Development Corporation Manoj Kumar Suryavanshi, General Manager of Indian Railways Dharamveer Meena, IRCTC’s Rahul Himalian, Maharashtra Tourism Development Corporation General Manager Chandrashekhar Jaiswal, Senior Manager Sanjay Dhekane, along with railway officials and passengers were present.

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Clear focus on good governance and transformation: PM Modi on 11 years of ‘seva’

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PM MODI

New Delhi, June 9: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that India has witnessed rapid transformations across diverse sectors in the last 11 years, and the NDA government, guided by the principle of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Prayas’, has delivered pathbreaking changes with speed, scale and sensitivity.

Marking the 11 years of the NDA government at the Centre, PM Modi on Monday took to social media to highlight the efforts made across key sectors. India has undergone a decade of remarkable transformation, driven by the principles of Seva, Sushasan, and Garib Kalyan, he said.

PM Modi said there has been a clear focus on good governance and transformation.

“Powered by the blessings and collective participation of 140 crore Indians, India has witnessed rapid transformations across diverse sectors. Guided by the principle of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Prayas’, the NDA Government has delivered pathbreaking changes with speed, scale and sensitivity,” PM Modi wrote on his X post.

He said that from economic growth to social upliftment, the government’s focus has been on people-centric, inclusive and all-around progress. India today is not just the fastest-growing major economy, but also a key global voice on pressing issues like climate action and digital innovation.

“We are proud of our collective success but at the same time, we look ahead with hope, confidence and a renewed resolve to build a Viksit Bharat!” said the Prime Minister.

PM Modi shared links about India’s Vikas Yatra, showcased through interesting videos, infographics, and articles on the NaMo App, and urged people to explore these.

He said the last 11 years have brought many positive changes and boosted ‘Ease of Living.’

“The NaMo App takes you through this transformative journey in an innovative manner, through interactive games, quizzes, surveys and other such formats that inform, engage and inspire. Do have a look…,” PM Modi shared and urged people to participate.

The Centre has released an e-book, “Viksit Bharat ka Amrit Kaal: Seva, Sushasan, Garib Kalyan ke 11 Saal”, on its achievements across all the sectors over the past 11 years under the leadership of PM Modi.

“The year 2025 marks 11 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. These 11 years have been dedicated to bring about development which is inclusive, progressive, and sustainable. The government under Prime Minister Modi has been steadfast in its commitment of creating equity and opportunity for all citizens. PM Modi has brought the politics of development – Vikasvaad – into the mainstream, making it the focal point around which political discourse and policy action now revolves,” said its introduction

Divided into 14 chapters, the book covers issues ranging from schemes for the poor and marginalised, farmer welfare, economy, healthcare, women/youth empowerment, infrastructure development, tech revolution, ease-of-living for middle class, the progress made in northeast, national security and foreign policy, environment and sustainability initiatives, and preservation and propagation of the country’s rich culture and heritage

“Since assuming office in 2014, PM Modi has remained firm in his resolve of keeping ‘India First’ in every policy formulation and action. This resolve is evident in government’s handling of both external and internal security, economic management, empowerment schemes for marginalised groups, efforts at cultural conservation and so on,” it said.

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Business

India embraces cashless revolution in last 11 years: Nirmala Sitharaman

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Nirmala Sitharaman

New Delhi, June 9: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said that India is embracing a cashless revolution with world-class digital initiatives like unified payments interface (UPI).

In the last 11 years, India has seen a remarkable journey under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the finance minister said on a post on X.

“India is embracing a cashless revolution. With Rs 70,000 crore+ worth UPI transactions daily and 59.6 crore transactions in a single day, digital payments are now the norm,” the minister added.

From making life easier for the common citizen to boosting business confidence, it’s been a decade of real and visible change, she further stated.

India today is not just the fastest-growing major economy, but also a key global voice on pressing issues like climate action and digital innovation.

In the month of May, UPI posted a robust growth by processing 18.68 billion transactions, up from 17.89 billion in April. As per data by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), the UPI transactions mark a 33 per cent year-on-year (YoY) surge compared to 14.03 billion transactions in the same month last year.

The UPI transactions rose to Rs 25.14 lakh crore (by value) last month, a 5 per cent increase from Rs 23.95 lakh crore in April. This reflects a 23 per cent rise from Rs 20.45 lakh crore in May last year. The average daily transaction volume stood at 602 million, while the average daily transaction value reached Rs 81,106 crore.

The UPI has strengthened its dominance in India’s digital payments system with its share in the total transaction volume rising to 83.7 per cent in 2024-25 from 79.7 per cent in the previous financial year.

The RBI’s annual report shows that UPI facilitated 185.8 billion transactions during 2024-25, which represents a 41 per cent year-on-year increase. In value terms, UPI transactions rose to Rs 261 lakh crore from Rs 200 lakh crore in FY24.

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