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RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising key lending rate from April

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The RBI’s MPC is expected to begin raising the key lending rate from its next review meeting in April, Crisil Research said.

Notably, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on February 10, retained key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22.

Besides, the growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained to give a push to economic activity.

The MPC of the central bank maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Likewise, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the ‘Bank Rate’ at 4.25 per cent.

“Risks have increased from the external front. First, Brent crude prices have jumped from $74.3 per barrel on average in December 2021 to over $90 now,” it said.

Moreover, Crisil Research expects Brent crude prices to average $80-85 in 2022, the highest since 2015.

“Elevated crude oil prices have an adverse impact on India’s macros such as the current account deficit, inflation, GDP growth, and in some cases, the fiscal deficit.”

In the past, the RBI has raised rates when crude oil prices rose, such as in 2010, 2011 and 2018.

“Second, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate at the fastest pace seen after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’.”

“The Fed will have taken seven years after the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ to raise its funds rate for the first time, and two years after Covid-19 pandemic began. The projected number of hikes in 2022 are also much higher than seen at the peak of Fed tightening after the aGlobal Financial Crisis’.”

Interestingly, peak tightening in 2018 had coincided with repo rate hikes by the RBI.

Furthermore, it cited that primary target of RBI, CPI inflation, remains within its comfort band of 2-6 per cent.

“However, it faces upside risks from rising crude oil prices. This is expected to be partially offset by lower excise duties on fuel compared with last year.”

“Meanwhile, we believe firms facing sustained cost pressure would pass it on to a great extent to consumers next fiscal as demand strengthens.”

As per Crisil Research, a modest reduction is expected in CPI inflation from 5.5 per cent this fiscal to 5.2 per cent in the next.

“Summing up, we expect the MPC to begin raising the repo rate from its next review meeting in April.”

“Following that, we expect two more hikes of 25 bps each next fiscal, which will take repo rate to 4.75 per cent by March 2023.”

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Govt unlikely to renew IndiGo pact with Turkish Airlines

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New Delhi, May 19: The government is unlikely to extend the commercial airline IndiGo’s leasing agreement with Turkish Airlines due to strained diplomatic relations following Turkey’s open support for Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor launched by India to avenge the killings of 26 tourists.

“The current pact, which enables IndiGo to operate wide-body aircraft on the Delhi-Istanbul route, expires on May 31. The government review is underway and the deal is unlikely to be renewed given the broader diplomatic context,” according to an Media report, citing people in the know.

IndiGo currently operates over 500-seater Airbus A330s on lease from Turkish Airlines for its Istanbul flights. The partnership also includes a codeshare deal that allows IndiGo to sell connections to over 40 destinations in Europe and North America via Istanbul.

On Thursday, IndiGo defended the collaboration, calling it “strategic” and essential for offering Indian flyers long-haul international access.

Apart from the vocal support during the heinous Pahalgam massacre, Turkey has also supplied drones to Pakistan, which were used to attack India during Operation Sindoor.

The issue of renewal of the IndiGo agreement with Turkish Airlines comes up at a time when India is already snapping ties with Turkish businesses and universities.

The government on Thursday revoked the security clearance for Turkish ground-handling firm Celebi Airport Services at Indian airports, due to national security concerns.

The Turkish company handled around 70 per cent of the ground operations at Mumbai airport, including passenger services, load control, flight operations, cargo and postal services, warehouses and bridge operations.

Adani Airport Holdings has also scrapped its agreement with Turkish company DragonPass to provide the latter’s customers access to its airport lounges.

“Our association with DragonPass, which provided access to airport lounges, has been terminated with immediate effect. DragonPass customers will no longer have access to lounges at Adani-managed airports. This change will have no impact on the airport lounge and travel experience for other customers,” the Adani Airport Holdings spokesperson said on Thursday.

Hundreds of Indian tourists have cancelled their trips to Turkey and Azerbaijan as part of the nationalistic backlash against these countries for supporting Pakistan in the conflict with India. Leading online travel booking platforms MakeMyTrip and EaseMyTrip have reported mass cancellations and a sharp drop in Indian tourists wanting to travel to Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Similarly, many Indian universities, including Jawaharlal Nehru University, Jamia Millia Islamia, and Maulana Azad National Urdu University, have suspended academic ties with Turkish institutions.

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DPIIT, GEAPP partner to boost opportunities for clean energy startups in India: Official

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Mumbai, May 17: The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP) to enhance opportunities for clean energy startups in India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced on Saturday.

Sanjiv, Joint Secretary, DPIIT said the collaboration will help startups scale technologies that support India’s long-term net-zero goals.

“India’s climate leadership depended on a strong entrepreneurial base. The partnership would open significant opportunities for clean energy startups to scale technologies that support the country’s long-term net-zero objectives,” he stated.

Under the two-year partnership, both organisations aim to boost innovation, sustainability, and entrepreneurship in the clean energy and manufacturing sectors.

The initiative will support early-stage climate-tech startups by helping them access funding, mentorship, pilot projects, and market connections. There is also a provision to extend the partnership beyond the initial term.

As part of the MoU, GEAPP will launch the Energy Transitions Innovation Challenge (ENTICE) — a platform that will offer up to $500,000 in rewards for impactful clean energy solutions.

Investment support will be provided through partners such as Spectrum Impact and Avana Capital.

DPIIT will help link the programme with the Startup India network and ensure its reach through various government schemes.

Sanjiv said India’s leadership in climate action depends on building a strong entrepreneurial base and added that this partnership is a step in that direction.

Saurabh Kumar, Vice President – India at GEAPP, called the MoU a key milestone to drive systemic change.

He said the combined strengths of GEAPP’s global experience, DPIIT’s institutional backing, and Startup India’s network would create new avenues for clean energy innovation in the country.

The agreement was signed by Dr Sumeet Jarangal and Saurabh Kumar in the presence of senior officials from both organisations.

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125 top Indian merchants vow to boycott trade with Turkey, Azerbaijan

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New Delhi, May 16: More than 125 top trade leaders from across the country on Friday resolved to boycott all forms of trade and commercial engagement with Turkey and Azerbaijan, including travel and tourism.

The trade leaders also appealed to the Indian film Industry not to undertake shooting of any film in Turkey or Azerbaijan and if any shooting is done, the business community and the people would boycott such films. The resolution also warns corporate houses not to shoot any product promotion film in Turkey or Azerbaijan.

The decision was taken at a National Conference of Trade Leaders convened by the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) here, where representatives from 24 states participated. It was strongly affirmed in the conference to stand in solidarity with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and to oppose stoutly anyone against India at this crucial juncture.

The resolution comes in response to the recent stand taken by Turkey and Azerbaijan in open support of Pakistan, at a time when India is facing a sensitive and critical national security situation. The collective Indian trading community views this as a betrayal, particularly considering the humanitarian and diplomatic support extended to both these countries in the past by India.

Addressing the gathering, CAIT Secretary General and Member of Parliament Praveen Khandelwal said: “It is deeply unfortunate that Turkey and Azerbaijan, who have benefited from India’s goodwill, aid, and strategic support in times of distress, have now chosen to side with Pakistan — a country known globally for its support to terrorism. Their position not only hurts India’s sovereignty and national interest but also directly insults the sentiments of 140 crore Indians.”

The conference noted that Turkey’s repeated anti-India rhetoric at international platforms and its continued support for Pakistan’s narrative is unacceptable whereas Azerbaijan’s alignment with Turkey and public endorsements of Pakistan’s stand reflect a disturbing disregard for India’s long-standing friendship and assistance.

CAIT National President BC Bhartia said the the traders’ community expressed strong resentment and disappointment against both countries, calling their actions “ungrateful and hostile.” It was unanimously agreed that such nations do not deserve any economic cooperation or trade advantage from India.

The trade leaders acclaimed the decision of the government for revoking security clearance for Turkish company Celebi in the interest of national security which is handling services at nine major airports of India.

CAIT said it will also launch a nationwide awareness campaign to educate and mobilise traders, consumers, and travel professionals to join this boycott.

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