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RBI reduces inflation forecast to 3.7 pc for 2025-26

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Mumbai, June 6: The RBI has revised its inflation outlook for 2025-26 downwards from the earlier forecast of 4 per cent to 3.7 per cent, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday.

Taking all these factors into consideration, and assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is now projected at 3.7 per cent, with Q1 at 2.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.4 per cent, Q3 at 3.9 per cent, and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.

He pointed out that Inflation has softened significantly over the last six months from above the tolerance band in October 2024 to well below the target, with signs of a broad-based moderation. The near-term and medium-term outlook now gives us the confidence of not only a durable alignment of headline inflation with the target of 4 per cent, as exuded in the last meeting, but also the belief that during the year, it is likely to undershoot the target at the margin.

While food inflation outlook remains soft, core inflation is expected to remain benign with easing of international commodity prices in line with the anticipated global growth slowdown, Malhotra explained.

He pointed out that CPI headline inflation continued its declining trajectory in March-April, with headline CPI inflation moderating to a nearly six-year low of 3.2 per cent (y-o-y) in April 2025. This was led mainly by food inflation, which recorded the sixth consecutive monthly decline.

Fuel group witnessed a reversal of deflationary conditions and recorded positive inflation prints during March and April, partly reflecting the hike in LPG prices. Core inflation remained largely steady and contained during March-April, despite the increase in gold prices exerting upward pressure, Malhotra said.

The outlook for inflation points towards benign prices across major constituents. The record wheat production and higher production of key pulses in the Rabi crop season should ensure an adequate supply of key food items. Going forward, the likely above normal monsoon along with its early onset augurs well for Kharif crop prospects.

Reflecting this, inflation expectations are showing a moderating trend, more so for the rural households. Most projections point towards continued moderation in the prices of key commodities, including crude oil, the RBI Governor said.

However, at the same time, Malhotra had a word of caution. “Notwithstanding these favourable prognoses, we need to remain watchful of weather-related uncertainties and still evolving tariff-related concerns with their attendant impact on global commodity prices,” he added.

Business

Indian markets trade higher despite West Asia tensions

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Mumbai, June 10: Domestic equity markets traded higher on Wednesday in the morning session despite elevated geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.

Sensex gained as much as 0.59 per cent or over 400 points to touch an intraday high of 74,356 in early trade, while the Nifty rose 0.46 per cent or about 100 points to 23,351.

Sectoral performance was largely positive, with FMCG stocks leading the gains. Nifty FMCG rose 1.5 per cent, followed by Nifty Chemicals (0.67 per cent), Nifty Oil & Gas (0.60 per cent) and Nifty Private Bank (0.50 per cent).

On the downside, metal stocks remained under pressure, with Nifty Metal declining more than 1 per cent. Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom fell 0.62 per cent, while Auto, Media and PSU Bank indices traded marginally lower.

Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries emerged as the top loser, shedding nearly 3 per cent. Eternal, Adani Enterprises, NTPC and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) were among the other major laggards.

“While weak global cues and geopolitical tensions could keep markets volatile in the near term, technical indicators suggest signs of stabilisation after recent selling pressure. Nifty has strong support around 23,000-23,100, while 23,500-23,600 remains the immediate resistance zone. A decisive breakout on either side is likely to determine the market’s next directional move,” analysts said.

Investors and traders’ sentiment remained cautious amid escalating tensions in West Asia after the United States launched strikes on Iran, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict and its potential impact on global energy supplies.

On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude rose 0.75 per cent to around $93 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.88 per cent to nearly $90 per barrel.

In Asia, markets traded largely in the red. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined more than 1 per cent each, while South Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 4 per cent.

Overnight, Wall Street ended lower, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.26 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.97 per cent.

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India world’s 2nd-largest single country contributor to global construction growth

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Mumbai, June 9: India has emerged as the second-largest single country contributor to global construction growth between 2020 and 2030, according to a new report released on Tuesday.

The report from Foundamental, a Berlin-based venture capital firm, said that India and China together account for nearly 40 per cent of global construction growth over the period.

Global capital expenditure is becoming increasingly concentrated in five countries: India, China, the United States, Germany and France, it said.

“India accounts for the second-largest share of global construction growth by volume between 2020 and 2030, at 14.1 per cent, behind only China at 26.1 per cent and ahead of the United States at 11.1 per cent,” said Shubhankar Bhattacharya, Co-Founder and General Partner at Foundamental.

Global construction spending reached $15.97 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $19.86 trillion by 2028, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6 per cent.

Within that total, infrastructure is the fastest-growing major construction segment globally, expanding at a CAGR of 5.1 per cent between 2020 and 2025.

In India, the pace is markedly higher: the country’s infrastructure market is forecast to grow at around 8 per cent annually through the end of the decade, well above the global rate.

The report also notes that global gross fixed capital formation has grown roughly 30-fold since 1960, with that investment becoming increasingly concentrated among a handful of major economies.

“Global construction spending has already surpassed previous forecasts and is creating new opportunities across infrastructure, industrial facilities, energy systems, transportation networks and digital infrastructure,” said Bhattacharya.

The report forecasts the global data centre construction market will double by 2030 compared with 2018 levels, driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing, making data centre infrastructure one of the fastest-growing construction segments through 2030. “Data centre construction could add between 10 per cent and 15 per cent to the global construction market by 2030,” said Bhattacharya.

The report said India is positioned to benefit from multiple long-term growth trends at once, including infrastructure expansion, industrial development, the energy transition, digital transformation and urbanisation.

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Business

Indian equity markets trade higher as Iran-Israel tensions ease

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Mumbai, June 9: Indian equities traded higher on Tuesday in the morning trade, supported by improving sentiment after signs of a pause in hostilities between Iran and Israel.

Sensex rose as much as 0.7 per cent or over 500 points to hit an intraday high of 74,035.41 in early trade, while Nifty gained 0.6 per cent or more than 100 points to touch 23,259.45.

On the sectoral front, Nifty MidSmall Financial Services emerged as the top gainer, rising over 1 per cent, followed by Nifty Realty, which also advanced more than 1 per cent. Nifty Auto climbed 0.9 per cent. Banking stocks traded higher as well, with the PSU Bank and Private Bank indices gaining up to 0.8 per cent.

Category-wise, microcap, midcap and smallcap indices outperformed the benchmarks. Nifty Microcap 250 rose more than 1 per cent, while Nifty Midcap 50, Midcap 100 and Midcap 150 gained up to nearly 1 per cent.

Market volatility eased, with India VIX declining more than 4 per cent to around 16.

According to market experts, the decline in Brent crude prices to below $94 per barrel is positive for Indian equities. They, however, cautioned that there is no certainty that the fragile peace between Iran and Israel will hold.

A US federal judge striking down President Donald Trump’s H-1B visa fee hike is also a mild positive for Indian IT stocks, experts said.

“The bulls are too weak to stage a strong comeback, while the bears remain strong enough to press selling on rallies. The sustained selling by FIIs shows no sign of fatigue. Large-cap valuations are fair and, in segments like banking, attractive, largely due to FII selling,” analysts said.

However, elevated volatility and lingering global uncertainty are expected to keep traders cautious in the near term, they added.

Meanwhile, Iran and Israel said they had paused military strikes against each other following an appeal by U.S. President Donald Trump for an immediate de-escalation. However, Tehran warned that it would resume attacks if Israel continued targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.

Crude oil prices traded lower, with international benchmark Brent crude declining about 1 per cent to $93 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell around 1 per cent to $90 per barrel.

Asian markets traded largely in positive territory, with Japan’s Nikkei rising more than 1 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI surging nearly 5 per cent. Other major regional indices were also trading higher.

In the US, Wall Street ended in green overnight, with the S&P 500 closing 0.3 per cent higher and the Nasdaq settling nearly 1 per cent higher.

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