Business
RBI projects India’s FY23 retail inflation at 4.5%
India’s FY23 retail inflation is projected at 4.5 per cent, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday.
Besides, inflation projection for 2021-22 is retained at 5.3 per cent, with Q4FY22 at 5.7 per cent on account of unfavourable base effects that are expected to ease subsequently.
In his policy statement post the Monetary Policy Committee’s bi-monthly meeting, Das said: “The CPI reading for January 2022 is expected to move closer to the upper tolerance band, largely due to adverse base effects.
“Taking all these factors into consideration and on the assumption of a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for 2022-23 is projected at 4.5 per cent with Q1:2022-23 at 4.9 per cent; Q2 at 5.0 per cent; Q3 at 4.0 per cent; and Q4 at 4.2 per cent, with risks broadly balanced.”
The Governor said that the CPI inflation trajectory has moved in close alignment with the RBI’s projections.
“In particular, the softening of food prices is providing welcome relief. The improving prospects for foodgrains production and the expected easing of vegetable prices on fresh winter crop arrivals are adding further optimism.
“Moreover, the softening of pulses and edible oil prices is likely to continue in response to strong supply side interventions by the Government and increase in domestic production.”
However, Das pointed out that hardening of crude oil prices presents a major upside risk to the inflation outlook.
“Core inflation remains elevated at tolerance testing levels, although the continuing pass through of tax cuts relating to petrol and diesel last November would help to moderate input cost pressures to some extent.
“The transmission of input cost pressures to selling prices remains muted in view of the continuing slack in demand. Further, as risks from Omicron wane and supply chain pressures moderate, there could be some softening of core inflation.”
On Thursday, the RBI retained its key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22. The growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained to give a push to economic activity.
Additionally, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.
Das said that at the current juncture, the conduct of domestic monetary policy is primarily attuned to the evolving inflation and growth dynamics.
“We remain watchful of spillovers from the uncertain global developments and divergent monetary policy responses.
“Our monetary policy would continue to be guided by its primary mandate of price stability over the medium term, while also ensuring a strong and sustained economic recovery.”
Business
Indian stock market in positive territory, overall sentiment remains balanced

Mumbai, The Indian stock markets witnessed a strong rebound last week after six consecutive weeks of decline, supported by favourable global cues, according to analysts.
Sentiment remained buoyant amid optimism surrounding a temporary US–Iran ceasefire, although lingering geopolitical uncertainties capped the pace of gains as the week progressed.
“The rally was further aided by a stable domestic macro backdrop, with broader markets outperforming the benchmarks. Despite elevated volatility marked by sharp mid-week gains and subsequent profit booking, indices trended higher,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
The Nifty and Sensex gained around 6 per cent to close near the week’s highs at 24,050.60 and 77,550.25, respectively.
According to analysts, global developments remained a key influence, with the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran improving risk appetite, though uncertainty around its sustainability persisted.
Meanwhile, a sharp decline in crude oil prices below the $100 mark eased domestic concerns and triggered a strong rebound across markets.
On the domestic front, the RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retained a neutral stance, highlighting the need to balance inflation risks with growth support.
The central bank also revised FY26 GDP growth upward to 7.6 per cent while projecting FY27 growth at 6.9 per cent.
Inflation projections were raised to 4.6 per cent for FY27, reflecting risks from elevated energy prices and potential weather-related disruptions.
Market watchers said that overall sentiment remains balanced but cautious, shaped by global cues, crude oil price movements and ongoing foreign investor activity.
Downside appears to be relatively contained, but upside momentum remains constrained, pointing to a recovery that is still tentative and low in conviction, they added.
Economic indicators showed signs of moderation, with the Services PMI easing to 57.5 and the Composite PMI to 57.0 in March.
However, global agencies remained constructive, with the World Bank raising India’s growth outlook, supported by strong domestic demand and structural factors, said analysts.
Business
Crude oil prices tank up to 20 pc over Iran ceasefire announcement

New Delhi, April 8: Global crude oil prices on Wednesday plunged sharply up to 20 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran that includes a pledge to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway at the heart of the world’s most acute energy crisis in decades.
The international benchmark Brent crude futures shed nearly 16 per cent or $17.39 to $91.88, hitting an intraday low, while US WTI crude declined almost 20 per cent or $21.90 to $91.05.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has been at the centre of the conflict. Iran had restricted passage for several weeks, contributing to rising prices and supply concerns. Markets had been on edge ahead of Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach a deal, with traders fearing a major escalation could disrupt shipments across the Gulf and send prices sharply higher.
Oil prices had surged in recent weeks amid fears that the strait could be closed or severely restricted. The waterway handles shipments critical to global supply chains, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
The US-Israel-Iran conflict has been paused for two weeks after approximately 40 days of hostilities that began in February.
President Trump’s shift in stance came just ahead of his stated deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk extensive strikes on its civilian infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Iran indicated it would halt its military operations provided attacks against it ceased simultaneously. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a formal statement, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be ensured for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.
The conflict had triggered an unprecedented surge in oil prices in March, with gains exceeding 60 per cent during the period.
Additionally, Indian equity benchmarks also rallied sharply on the development, trading more than 3 per cent higher in early trade. The Sensex jumped nearly 4 per cent, while the Nifty surged 3.5 per cent to their respective intraday highs.
Business
Employees’ body to meet on April 13 as Central govt staff keen on 8th Pay Commission decisions

New Delhi, April 7: Millions of Central government employees and pensioners await the outcome of the drafting committee of the National Council (Joint Consultative Machinery) on April 13 to get cues on the 8th Pay Commission salary revision, a report said on Tuesday.
The drafting committee meeting scheduled for 11:00 am at the JP Choubey Memorial Library (AIRF office premises) here will review a final common memorandum and discuss pay scale revisions, annual increments, allowances and other benefits, the report from NDTV Profit said.
“The April 13 meeting is in continuation of the March 12, 2026, meeting when all drafting committee members of the 8th Pay Commission met to discuss the common memorandum of all employee and pensioner bodies,” said NC-JCM secretary, Shiv Gopal Mishra, in a letter to members of the drafting committee.
The government has not yet announced the official date for the salary increase. Arrears will be calculated based on the date fixed for the implementation of the 8th Pay Commission
even as employee and pensioner groups press for arrears to be calculated from January 1, 2026, the report said.
The Federation of National Postal Organisations has asked the government to merge the 58 per cent dearness allowance with basic pay and give interim relief from the same date.
The salary increase will hinge on the fitment factor the government adopts which analysts expect to exceed 2.5. Some employee groups have sought a fitment factor of 3.15, even though the official decision may take over a year, the report said.
Pankaj Chaudhary, MoS Finance, told Parliament in March that the 8th Pay Commission will make its recommendations on pay, allowances, pensions, and other benefits for central government employees. The 8th Pay Commission is expected to complete this work within 18 months from November 2025.
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