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RBI projects India’s FY23 retail inflation at 4.5%

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India’s FY23 retail inflation is projected at 4.5 per cent, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday.

Besides, inflation projection for 2021-22 is retained at 5.3 per cent, with Q4FY22 at 5.7 per cent on account of unfavourable base effects that are expected to ease subsequently.

In his policy statement post the Monetary Policy Committee’s bi-monthly meeting, Das said: “The CPI reading for January 2022 is expected to move closer to the upper tolerance band, largely due to adverse base effects.

“Taking all these factors into consideration and on the assumption of a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for 2022-23 is projected at 4.5 per cent with Q1:2022-23 at 4.9 per cent; Q2 at 5.0 per cent; Q3 at 4.0 per cent; and Q4 at 4.2 per cent, with risks broadly balanced.”

The Governor said that the CPI inflation trajectory has moved in close alignment with the RBI’s projections.

“In particular, the softening of food prices is providing welcome relief. The improving prospects for foodgrains production and the expected easing of vegetable prices on fresh winter crop arrivals are adding further optimism.

“Moreover, the softening of pulses and edible oil prices is likely to continue in response to strong supply side interventions by the Government and increase in domestic production.”

However, Das pointed out that hardening of crude oil prices presents a major upside risk to the inflation outlook.

“Core inflation remains elevated at tolerance testing levels, although the continuing pass through of tax cuts relating to petrol and diesel last November would help to moderate input cost pressures to some extent.

“The transmission of input cost pressures to selling prices remains muted in view of the continuing slack in demand. Further, as risks from Omicron wane and supply chain pressures moderate, there could be some softening of core inflation.”

On Thursday, the RBI retained its key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22. The growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained to give a push to economic activity.

Additionally, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Das said that at the current juncture, the conduct of domestic monetary policy is primarily attuned to the evolving inflation and growth dynamics.

“We remain watchful of spillovers from the uncertain global developments and divergent monetary policy responses.

“Our monetary policy would continue to be guided by its primary mandate of price stability over the medium term, while also ensuring a strong and sustained economic recovery.”

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Gold, silver continue to decline as CME margin requirements hike set to take effect

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Mumbai, Feb 2: Gold and silver extended their decline on Monday, as hike in margin requirements are set to take effect on Chicago Merchantile Exchange (CME) in the US.

MCX gold February futures fell 1.77 per cent to Rs 1,45,132 per 10 grams on an intra-day basis. Meanwhile MCX silver March futures dipped 6.88 per cent to Rs 2,47,386 per kg.

Analysts said the free fall of gold and silver from their record highs started after the US President Donald Trump selected Kevin Warsh as the next US Fed Chairman. Investors reacted negatively because Warsh is considered more aggressive on interest-rate policy than earlier chairs, they added.

The decline was further supported by a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields, and upbeat US inflation data (PPI and core PPI). As import duty was kept unchanged in the Union Budget the domestic premium in bullion suffered, said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

In international markets silver could find support near $68, while gold may hold around $4,510 this week, analysts forecasted. Spot gold recovered considerably after dropping 4 per cent in early morning session on Monday, during the Asian trading hours.

“Gold has support at Rs 1,39,650 to Rs 1,36,310 zone while resistance at Rs 1,48,850 and Rs 1,50,950. Silver has support at Rs 2,48,810 and Rs 2,37,170 while resistance at Rs 2,78,810 and Rs 2,95,470,” the analyst said.

According to them, the broader market trend for COMEX gold remains constructive, even as the recent vertical rally pushed momentum indicators into overbought territory, leading to heat-driven profit booking and mild price digestion from elevated levels.

Structural supply deficits and steady industrial demand continue to underpin the bullish bias in silver. Persistent safe-haven demand, steady central-bank accumulation, and expectations of accommodative global monetary conditions continue to underpin prices of yellow metal.

A recent report from WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund said that investors should trim precious metals allocation back to a safe‑haven allocation level, especially on the silver as its valuation had reached the most over-extended level relative to historical periods.

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New excise duty, health cess on cigarettes, pan masala to begin from Feb 1

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New Delhi, Jan 31: From February 1, the government is bringing a new tax structure for cigarettes, tobacco products and pan masala, aiming to tighten regulation and keep tax levels high on these so-called ‘sin goods’.

An additional excise duty will now be charged on cigarettes and tobacco products, along with a new health and national security cess on pan masala.

These new levies will replace the earlier system under which these products were taxed at 28 per cent GST along with a compensation cess that has been in place since the launch of GST in July 2017.

The government is also introducing a new MRP-based valuation system for several tobacco products such as chewing tobacco, filter khaini, jarda scented tobacco and gutkha.

Under this system, GST will be calculated based on the retail price printed on the packet, instead of factory value.

This move is expected to reduce tax evasion and improve revenue collection. Pan masala manufacturers will now have to take fresh registration under the new health and national security cess law starting February 1.

They will also be required to install CCTV cameras that cover all packing machines and store the video recordings for at least two years.

In addition, companies must inform excise authorities about the number of machines in their factories and their production capacity.

If any machine remains non-functional for 15 days in a row, manufacturers will be allowed to claim a reduction in excise duty for that period.

Even after the new changes, the government has ensured that the overall tax burden on pan masala, including 40 per cent GST, will remain around the current level of 88 per cent.

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Indian stock markets gain this week ahead of Budget 2026

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Mumbai, Jan 31: The Indian equity benchmarks gained around 1 per cent during the week, though the trading sessions were volatile but with a cautiously constructive tone amid mixed global cues and rising geopolitical tensions.

Risk appetite weakened toward the end of the week ahead of the Union Budget 2026-27, with volatility resurfacing amid sustained FII outflows and rupee depreciation leading to losses in the last trading session.

Nifty added 1.09 per cent during the week and dipped 0.39 per cent on the last trading day to 25,320. At close, Sensex was down 296 points or 0.36 percent at 81,537. It added 0.90 per cent during the week.

Sectoral indices traded mixed this week with diversified consumer services stocks and hardware tech stocks logging the worst-performance, dipping 2.5 to 3.7 per cent. FMCG, media and software stocks slide over 1 per cent.

Metal stocks as well as oil and gas were the top weekly gainers up over 2 per cent, however Nifty metal index plummeted over 5 per cent on the last trading session. Profit booking also intensified in IT amid a firmer dollar and global liquidity concerns, and caution over incoming Fed Chair, analysts said.

Select pockets of weakness were observed in autos and beverages amid intensifying competitive pressures.

Broader indices posted stronger gains during the week, with the Nifty Midcap100 up 2.25 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 gained 3.2 per cent.

The markets opened the week with a subdued sentiment due to renewed tariff-related concerns and mixed corporate earnings, although optimism surrounding the India–EU trade agreement lent support, particularly to trade-oriented sectors.

Market sentiment improved mid-week following a favourable economic survey that reinforced expectations of robust FY27 growth and a benign inflation outlook.

Analysts said that markets remain wary that a potentially stronger inflation focus could prolong tight financial conditions and weigh on emerging markets.

Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain largely event-driven, with the Union Budget acting as the key domestic trigger, they said.

Cyclical sectors may continue to show relative resilience if supported by policy measures, while IT and export-oriented stocks are likely to remain sensitive to global macro cues, analysts added.

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