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Monday,06-July-2026
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RBI fighting a lost INR battle, say analysts

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A stronger USD would imply higher global inflation exported by the US, lower global trade, cry for reverse FX wars, and pressure on equities and emerging markets assets, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report.

The global narrative is undergoing a substantial regional rotation in favour of the US exceptionalism, even as we are unlikely to see the US growth upgrades. The theme of dollar dominance is still alive.

While GBPINR is down 4 per cent, USDINR is up 2 per cent since the September FOMC meeting — one of the worst EM hits.

“King Dollar is still on the throne… with RBI fighting a lost INR battle,” Emkay Global Financial Services said in the report.

“INR readjustment is catching up faster than peers, as it was held stronger in past adjustments by policy intervention. India’s massive FX defence, amounting to more than US$100bn estimated since October-21 (spot + forwards) means that the war-chest is falling faster than the pace at which the war is fading. Amid emerging regional imbalances, we reiterate that the RBI will eventually let the exchange rate adjust to new realities, albeit in an orderly manner, letting it act as an automatic macro stabilizer to the policy reaction function”, the report said.

The GBP free-fall and massive FX vols have only added another complicated layer to DM FX order, adding credence to our long stated view that dollar dominance is here to stay even as we are unlikely to see US growth upgrades in this downcycle.

US exceptionalism rub-off has finally let the INR loose, despite RBI’s active FX intervention — an indication of the impending range shift. INR readjustment has been swift, and the RBI will eventually need to let the exchange rate adjust to these new realities and act as a natural macro stabiliser, albeit orderly, the report added.

The direct macroeconomic impact of the UK shocks on India will be limited via the trade impact, but global risk will likely weigh on India in the near term. GBP weakness may aid Tata Motors on the UK operational front, albeit this will be countered by near-term MTM losses on its USD-denominated debt. In large-cap ITeS, TCS and Wipro lead in terms of GBP exposure.

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WhatsApp keeps ‘username feature’ launch on hold; wins more time to respond to govt notice

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Meta-backed messaging platform WhatsApp has assured the Indian government it will not roll out its proposed username feature in the country until ongoing consultations with authorities are completed, sources familiar with the matter said.

The Meta‑owned messaging platform has also been granted an additional three days to respond to the government notice seeking clarification on the feature. The original deadline for WhatsApp’s reply had lapsed on Friday.

WhatsApp had proposed a username option which would allow users to communicate on WhatsApp without sharing their phone numbers.

The Central government issued a formal notice last week expressing concerns that such a move could heighten risks of online fraud, phishing and impersonation. The government asked WhatsApp to keep the feature on hold until discussions address its security and consumer‑protection concerns, and a Meta delegation met officials from the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology on Friday to discuss the matter.

Earlier this week, WhatsApp reiterated that several safeguards have been built into the username feature to prevent impersonation, scams and unwanted contact as it prepares for a wider rollout later this year.

The messaging platform addressed a series of frequently asked questions on microblogging platform X after concerns were raised over the feature, including by the government, which has asked the company to defer its rollout in the country pending consultations.

The company said users will not be required to create a username and that existing Instagram and Facebook usernames, along with those of public figures, celebrities, government entities and Meta Verified accounts, have been reserved so they can only be claimed by their legitimate owners.

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Sensex, Nifty extend winning streak to 4th day; realty, auto stocks lead rally

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Indian equity benchmarks extended their winning streak to a fourth consecutive session on Monday, supported by strong buying in realty, auto, oil and gas stocks.

The Nifty closed 159.50 points, or 0.66 per cent, higher at 24,430.35, while the Sensex advanced 521.16 points, or 0.67 per cent, to settle at 78,285.07.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the 24,500–24,600 zone will remain a crucial region to watch in the upcoming sessions, as a decisive move above this band could confirm the continuation of the ongoing bullish trend.

“On the downside, the 24,200 level is expected to act as immediate support in case of any profit booking, followed by the 24,000 psychological zone, which remains the crucial zone,” an analyst said.

Among the Nifty constituents, HDFC Bank, Hindalco Industries and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) emerged as the top gainers, helping lift the benchmark indices.

The broader market also ended on a positive note. The Nifty MidCap index gained 0.45 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index outperformed with a 0.75 per cent rise.

Sectoral indices largely traded in the green, with the Nifty Realty index leading the gains and closing at a six-month high. The Nifty Auto index climbed to its highest level in a month, while the Nifty Oil and Gas and Nifty Consumer Durables indices also posted strong gains.

Experts said that the day’s rally marked the fourth straight session of gains for the benchmark indices, with sustained buying across rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors underpinning market sentiment.

“Market sentiment remains positive, supported by the decline in the India VIX, which reflects improving investor confidence,” an analyst stated.

“The rally was broad-based, with real estate, oil & gas, automobiles and consumer durables emerging as the top-performing sectors, each advancing around 1 per cent during the session, as buying interest remained widespread across the market,” as per the expert.

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Gold posts 1st weekly gain since May as US Fed rate hike fears ease

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Mumbai, July 4: Gold recorded its first weekly gain since May as trader expectations for further US Federal Reserve rate hikes moderated, pushing bullion prices around 3.1 per cent for the week.

Soft US job numbers and lower energy prices led to investors reducing the expectations of monetary policy tightening.

However, on Friday, MCX gold August futures eased 0.01 per cent while MCX silver July futures inched up 0.04 per cent. Currently, gold futures stand at Rs 1,47,365, while silver futures at Rs 2,37,499 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,46,344 on Friday, up from Rs 1,41,911 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

“Gold extended its recovery for the fourth consecutive session and touched a 10-day high on Friday. The rebound comes after more than a month of sustained selling following the May 13 import duty hike, with improving sentiment supported by a softer US dollar,” an analyst said.

The analyst said that the recent pullback in the Dollar Index has encouraged fresh buying in bullion, and forecasted that the bullion is expected to trade in the Rs 1,45,000–1,49,000 range, with global cues continuing to drive sentiment.

Market participants said softer US labour data and easing energy costs reduced the probability of further Fed tightening. US hiring slowed sharply in June and traders trimmed the probability of a quarter‑point rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting to below 20 per cent, down from roughly one‑third earlier in the week.

Lower energy costs and softer job growth have led analysts to forecast a gradual easing of inflationary pressures in coming months.

Oil prices have witnessed their sharpest quarterly correction since 2020 as shipments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates near pre-war levels.

US President Donald Trump and allies have renewed efforts to clear the way for more of the president’s own picks at the Federal Reserve after the Supreme Court blocked an attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook.

Similar efforts last year, challenging Fed’s independence, helped fuel gold’s rally as investors sought protection against potential policy shifts.

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