Business
RBI fighting a lost INR battle, say analysts
A stronger USD would imply higher global inflation exported by the US, lower global trade, cry for reverse FX wars, and pressure on equities and emerging markets assets, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report.
The global narrative is undergoing a substantial regional rotation in favour of the US exceptionalism, even as we are unlikely to see the US growth upgrades. The theme of dollar dominance is still alive.
While GBPINR is down 4 per cent, USDINR is up 2 per cent since the September FOMC meeting — one of the worst EM hits.
“King Dollar is still on the throne… with RBI fighting a lost INR battle,” Emkay Global Financial Services said in the report.
“INR readjustment is catching up faster than peers, as it was held stronger in past adjustments by policy intervention. India’s massive FX defence, amounting to more than US$100bn estimated since October-21 (spot + forwards) means that the war-chest is falling faster than the pace at which the war is fading. Amid emerging regional imbalances, we reiterate that the RBI will eventually let the exchange rate adjust to new realities, albeit in an orderly manner, letting it act as an automatic macro stabilizer to the policy reaction function”, the report said.
The GBP free-fall and massive FX vols have only added another complicated layer to DM FX order, adding credence to our long stated view that dollar dominance is here to stay even as we are unlikely to see US growth upgrades in this downcycle.
US exceptionalism rub-off has finally let the INR loose, despite RBI’s active FX intervention — an indication of the impending range shift. INR readjustment has been swift, and the RBI will eventually need to let the exchange rate adjust to these new realities and act as a natural macro stabiliser, albeit orderly, the report added.
The direct macroeconomic impact of the UK shocks on India will be limited via the trade impact, but global risk will likely weigh on India in the near term. GBP weakness may aid Tata Motors on the UK operational front, albeit this will be countered by near-term MTM losses on its USD-denominated debt. In large-cap ITeS, TCS and Wipro lead in terms of GBP exposure.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open lower as global headwinds weigh on sentiment

Mumbai, Sep 28: Domestic equity benchmarks opened lower on Monday weighed down by persistent external headwinds with financial, realty and auto stocks leading declines in early trade.
Nifty opened 75.60 points or 0.33 per cent lower at 23,064.90, while Sensex fell more than 150 points or 0.22 per cent to 73,734.83.
Among Nifty stocks, Hindalco Industries, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Grasim Industries and Shriram Finance were top losers declining up to 1.76 per cent.
Broader sectoral weakness was led by realty stocks with Nifty Realty down over 1 per cent. Meanwhile, cement, financial services, private banks, auto and FMCG indices also fell nearly 1 per cent each.
However, Nifty Pharma was among the few gainers which was up inches higher.
Market analysts said domestic economic resilience and improving corporate earnings were being overshadowed by external pressures, including elevated crude oil prices and US bond yields.
“Brent crude at $106 and the US 10-year yield at 5.2 per cent are strong headwinds that are weighing on markets,” the analysts said. Foreign portfolio investors had turned sellers again in September after buying in July and August, according to them.
They further noted that the broader market continued to show momentum as foreign investors appeared to be buying midcap and smallcap stocks despite elevated valuations, while selling largecaps.
For the Nifty, immediate support is seen at 22,900-23,000, while resistance is placed at 23,250-23,300. The index is likely to remain volatile as traders watch these levels for signs of stability, as per market experts.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude rose more than 2 per cent to $106.69, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained over 1 per cent to $93.82.
In Asia, markets showed a mostly negative trend. Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Jakarta Composite declined up to 2 per cent.
Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.51 per cent and the Nasdaq up 0.48 per cent.
Business
Uttar Pradesh’s exports to more than double as new FTAs kick in: Piyush Goyal

Greater Noida, Sep 27: Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted that as global markets open up to India through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Uttar Pradesh’s annual exports are expected to more than double from Rs 2 lakh crore to Rs 5 lakh crore by 2030.
Addressing the UP International Trade Show in Greater Noida, Goyal said that expanding exports, investments and global market access would contribute to the state’s goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy.
The minister said the expanding global market access through FTAs, investments, tourism and international recognition of Uttar Pradesh’s products and brands would create new opportunities for the state’s entrepreneurs. He called for active participation and cooperation from the state’s trade and industrial community in taking forward this development journey.
He said new investments are expected to flow into India from across the globe and noted that Uttar Pradesh has emerged as a preferred investment destination, supported by favourable industrial policies and proactive industrial schemes. He said major corporations and global investors are arriving across sectors, creating new employment opportunities.
The minister highlighted the role of modern technology, international enterprises, and the evolving craftsmanship and technical skills of Uttar Pradesh’s youth in driving the state’s development. He said international events of this scale provide opportunities for direct access to global markets, enabling Uttar Pradesh’s diverse products, cuisines and services to reach international markets.
Goyal underscored the international participation at the UP International Trade Show, including six partner countries, hundreds of delegates and exhibitors, and buyer-seller meetings. He noted the participation of international stakeholders and the opportunities created for businesses through the event.
He highlighted the development of expressways, modern airports and industrial parks in Uttar Pradesh and noted the state’s growing presence across sectors including defence, semiconductors, electronics and other modern high-technology domains. He also referred to the expansion of a large robotics manufacturing facility in Greater Noida as an example of modern industrial growth and technological development.
The next frontier for Uttar Pradesh’s development lies in expanding exports in global markets, attracting international investments, strengthening tourism and building global recognition for brands from the state, he said, adding that the state is strengthening its foundation for greater global trade and progressing towards its development objectives.
The minister also highlighted the importance of coordination between the Central and state governments, along with the participation of citizens, youth and stakeholders from the trade and industrial sector, in supporting Uttar Pradesh’s continued economic and export growth.
Business
Consumers brace for 3-day bank strike; certain banks open on Sunday

New Delhi, Sep 27: State Bank of India (SBI), Bank of Baroda (BoB), Punjab National Bank (PNB) and several other public sector banks are open on Sunday (September 27), giving customers an opportunity to complete their banking work before a proposed three-day nationwide bank strike from September 28 to September 30.
The special Sunday opening applies to public sector banks (PSBs) and regional rural banks (RRBs), following a direction aimed at ensuring the availability of regular banking services ahead of the proposed strike. Customers who need to visit a branch for important banking work can therefore use the additional working day, subject to the operational arrangements and staffing at individual branches.
The decision to open PSBs and RRBs on Sunday was taken following a meeting held on September 21 between officials from the Finance Ministry, public sector banks, regional rural banks, the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) and NABARD.
The move assumes significance as September 26 and 27 fall on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. With the proposed bank strike scheduled immediately after the weekend, customers could otherwise have faced several consecutive days with limited access to physical branch services. The Sunday opening has consequently been planned to provide an additional opportunity to complete important banking transactions before the strike.
Among the public sector banks operating today are State Bank of India, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, Bank of India, Indian Bank, Union Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra, UCO Bank, Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank and Punjab & Sind Bank.
The arrangement also covers 28 regional rural banks across the country. These include Andhra Pradesh Grameena Bank, Arunachal Pradesh Rural Bank, Assam Gramin Bank, Bihar Gramin Bank, Chhattisgarh Gramin Bank, Gujarat Gramin Bank, Haryana Gramin Bank, Himachal Pradesh Gramin Bank, Jammu and Kashmir Grameen Bank, Jharkhand Gramin Bank, Karnataka Grameena Bank, Kerala Grameena Bank, Madhya Pradesh Gramin Bank, Maharashtra Gramin Bank, Manipur Rural Bank, Meghalaya Rural Bank, Mizoram Rural Bank, Nagaland Rural Bank, Odisha Grameen Bank, Puducherry Grama Bank, Punjab Gramin Bank, Rajasthan Gramin Bank, Tamil Nadu Grama Bank, Telangana Grameena Bank, Tripura Gramin Bank, Uttar Pradesh Gramin Bank, Uttarakhand Gramin Bank and West Bengal Gramin Bank.
However, the Sunday opening arrangement does not automatically extend to private sector banks.
The special Sunday banking arrangement comes ahead of the proposed three-day nationwide strike called by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) and other bank unions from September 28 to September 30.
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