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RBI may raise policy rates by 75 bps cumulatively in next 2 reviews: SBI Research

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 SBI Research expects the central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to raise key policy rates both in its June and August policy meeting by a cumulative 75 basis points.

Beyond August, rate actions might be more balanced and judicious and the terminal repo rate is expected to be at 5.15-5.25 per cent by FY23, it said.

This is tantamount to saying that the RBI should not increase the repo rate by more than 1.25 per cent for an incremental negative contribution to kick in.

Retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent on yearly basis in April 2022, as compared to 6.95 per cent in March 2022, mainly on account of food price inflation.

Inflation prints are now likely to stay higher than 7 per cent till September, the SBI Research said in a report.

“Beyond September, inflation prints could hover between 6.5-7.0 per cent. Our FY23 inflation forecast is at 6.5 per cent, taking into account the possibility of an extended food price shock,” it said.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the trajectory of inflation.

The latest April inflation print shows wheat, protein items (chicken in particular), milk, lemon, cooked meal, chillies, refined oil, potato, chillies, kerosene, firewood, gold and LPG are contributing to overall inflation in a substantive manner.

Interestingly, inflation in protein items like chicken, mustard oil etc, softened in April.

However this might be an aberration, given that April was the month of Navratri and other religious festivals, it added.

Surprisingly, the contribution of petrol and diesel in overall inflation has been declining steadily since October 2021, while there is a steady increase in the weighted contribution of kerosene and firewood in headline inflation.

The significant increase in weighted contribution of kerosene perhaps reflects the impact of high fuel costs in rural areas. This does not augur well for rural demand.

“The weighted contribution of LPG has also increased, reversing a downward trend. This however, may be attributed to commercial usage of LPG.”

Besides, the report said the RBI may increase the CRR rate by another 100 bps, after raising it by 50 basis points recently.

The RBI can give back to the market at least 3/4th of the Rs 2.6 lakh crore absorbed through the CRR hike, or Rs 1.95 lakh crore, in some form to address duration supply.

It would lower the market borrowing to around Rs 12.36 lakh crore for FY23 compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 14.3 lakh crore, the report added.

Further, SBI research added that the fall of the rupee to new lows, with spiking volatility breaching the psychological levels of 77 augurs the uneasy situation, reflective of the turbulence in broader markets globally, and the limited choices before the central bank in managing the exchange rate, even with seemingly comfortable levels of forex reserves close to $600 billion.

“We don’t expect the rupee to breach the levels of 80 and instead show an appreciative bias over time,” it said.

Business

MSC Group’s arm to invest around $1.4 billion for 49 pc share in Adani’s Vizhinjam port

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Ahmedabad, June 30: Adani Ports on Tuesday said it has entered into a definitive agreement with MSC Group under which MSC’s container terminal operating and investing arm Terminal Investment Limited (TiL) will invest for 49 per cent interest in Adani Vizhinjam Port Private Limited (AVPPL), the concessionaire for Vizhinjam port.

The strategic collaboration represents the single largest foreign private investment in Indian port infrastructure and cements Vizhinjam’s emergence as a dominant transshipment gateway in the Indian Ocean region.

TiL will invest $1.397 billion, equivalent to its proportionate 49 per cent share in Vizhinjam port in total deal value of $2.85 billion.

“Vizhinjam port has emerged as a premier transshipment hub and ramped up at an unprecedented pace, becoming the first Indian port to earn the unique distinction of crossing two million TEUs within 18 months of operations,” said Ashwani Gupta, Whole-time Director and CEO, APSEZ.

“I am delighted to expand APSEZ’s long-standing partnership with MSC to Vizhinjam, as we prepare for the port’s next leg of journey. I am confident that our association will deliver enhanced supply chain efficiencies at a global scale and improve India’s access to key global mature and developing markets,” Gupta said.

The transaction is subject to customary approvals, including regulatory ones.

The strategic collaboration between APSEZ and MSC Group will deliver significant advantages for APSEZ, including enhanced volume visibility and accelerated ramp-up ahead of plan, driven by additional cargo volumes; a higher share of Bangladesh cargo, largely dependent on competing Southeast Asian transshipment hubs; strengthen presence on East Africa trade routes; and elevated relay cargo volumes.

TiL is one of the world’s largest container terminal operators and part of the MSC Group comprising a portfolio of more than 100 container terminals across five continents and a throughput of more than 70 million TEUs per annum.

Commissioned in December 2024, Vizhinjam port is India’s first deep-draft mega transshipment port with 1.6 million TEU capacity. The port is undergoing expansion that will increase capacity 3.5x to 5.7 million TEUs by December 2028, according to the company.

Vizhinjam port is strategically located just 10 nautical miles from the East-West shipping route connecting Europe, the Persian Gulf, and the Far East.

During FY26, Vizhinjam port handled 1.3 million TEUs. In its first year, Vizhinjam port handled 1.3 million TEUs and 615 vessels, becoming the fastest Indian port to cross the one million TEU milestone.

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Indian equity benchmarks open higher amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, June 30: India’s benchmark equity indices opened higher on Tuesday amid mixed global cues, with investors also keeping an eye on the derivatives expiry and the start of the June quarter earnings season.

Sensex opened at 77,005.51, up 277.14 points or 0.36 per cent. Nifty also began the session mildly positive opening at 24,032.05, an increase of 85.80 points or 0.35 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Realty led the gains, rising 0.54 per cent. Nifty Private Bank and Nifty Auto jumped up to 0.45 per cent. Buying was also seen in chemicals, PSU banks, oil and gas, consumer durables and healthcare stocks.

On the other hand, Nifty IT declined 0.18 per cent, while Nifty Metal slipped 0.13 per cent. Nifty FMCG was marginally lower.

From the Nifty stocks, Eicher Motors, Tata Consumer Products, Hindalco Industries, HDFC Life Insurance, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Max Healthcare, SBI Life Insurance, Hindustan Unilever and Infosys were the top losers.

According to market experts, the absence of major near-term triggers is likely to keep markets range-bound, with investors shifting their focus to the upcoming June quarter (Q1) earnings season.

They added that momentum indicators have started showing signs of moderation, suggesting that the market may continue to consolidate in the near term.

“The market is currently consolidating within a defined range, and traders should watch for a decisive move above the 24,200 level or below 23,800 on the Nifty to confirm the next directional trend. Until then, range-bound trading with stock-specific action is expected to dominate market activity,” the experts said.

International oil benchmark Brent crude slipped 0.66 per cent to $73.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 1 per cent to trade around the $70-a-barrel mark.

Asian markets traded on a mixed note. Japan’s Nikkei gained more than 1 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI also advanced over 1 per cent. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined by more than 1 per cent.

US markets ended in positive territory, with the S&P 500 rising 1.18 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite climbing nearly 2 per cent.

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Gold, silver trade lower amid weak global cues

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New Delhi, June 29: Gold and silver prices traded lower on Monday, with the yellow metal slipping below the Rs 1.44 lakh mark and the white metal hovering near Rs 2.23 lakh amid weak global cues.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) opened at Rs 1,44,180 per 10 grams, marginally higher than the previous close of Rs 1,44,162. However, selling pressure emerged later.

At around 10 am, the yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,43,470, down Rs 692 or 0.48 per cent. So far in the session, it has touched an intraday high of Rs 1,44,180 per 10 grams — its opening price — and a low of Rs 1,43,454, down 0.49 per cent or Rs 708.

On the other hand, silver futures (September) traded largely flat in early deals.

The white metal opened at Rs 2,23,912 per kg against the previous close of Rs 2,23,472. At the last count, it was trading at Rs 2,23,174 per kg, down Rs 298 or 0.13 per cent.

So far during the session, silver has touched a high of Rs 2,24,248 per kg and a low of Rs 2,22,641, down 0.37 per cent or Rs 831.

Similarly, in the international market, precious metals were trading lower, with COMEX gold down 0.41 per cent at $4,078 per ounce, while COMEX silver declined more than 1 per cent to $58.52 per ounce.

According to commodity market experts, gold remained under pressure as investors turned cautious amid renewed geopolitical tensions and expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. A stronger US dollar and elevated US Treasury yields also weighed on bullion prices.

“Safe-haven demand received only limited support after fresh exchanges between the US and Iran over the weekend strained the fragile ceasefire. While the recent US-Iran peace framework had eased concerns over energy-driven inflation by pulling crude oil prices lower, renewed attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have revived uncertainty over the region,” the analysts said.

Investors will now closely track key US economic data, including consumer confidence, ADP employment, jobless claims and non-farm payrolls, for further cues on the Fed’s policy outlook and the direction of the US dollar, they added.

In the currency market, the Indian rupee opened five paise higher at 94.35 against the US dollar on Monday, compared with its previous close of 94.40.

Meanwhile, international benchmark Brent crude rose about 1 per cent to $72.78 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained more than 2 per cent to nearly $71 per barrel.

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