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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

Business

Zen Technologies shares tumble over 10 pc after weak Q1 earnings

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Mumbai, July 27: Shares of Zen Technologies Ltd. fell more than 10 per cent in early trade on Monday after the technology company reported a weak set of earnings for the first quarter of FY27, hurt by lower revenue and a sharp contraction in operating margins.

At around 10:50 am, the stock had plunged as much as 10.39 per cent to an intraday low of Rs 1,585.55 on the BSE. It later pared some losses to trade at Rs 1,688.95, down 4.55 per cent.

The disappointing quarterly performance has shifted investor attention to the company’s order book and management’s outlook for the rest of the financial year.

Revenue from operations declined 10.5 per cent year-on-year to Rs 142 crore in the April-June quarter, compared with Rs 158 crore in the same period last year.

The company’s operating performance also weakened, with EBITDA falling 38.8 per cent to Rs 38.7 crore from Rs 63.3 crore a year earlier.

Its EBITDA margin narrowed sharply to 27.3 per cent from 40 per cent in the corresponding quarter last fiscal, indicating increased pressure on profitability despite a relatively modest decline in revenue.

Net profit dropped 27.8 per cent to Rs 34.5 crore from Rs 47.8 crore in the year-ago period. The company said the quarterly performance was also affected by a one-time loss of Rs 3.4 crore.

Meanwhile, the board approved a two-year extension for the utilisation of proceeds raised through its qualified institutional placement (QIP). Zen Technologies had raised the funds in August 2024 and has been regularly updating stock exchanges on their utilisation through monitoring and deviation reports.

On Monday, the stock touched an intraday low of Rs 1,585.55. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between a low of Rs 1,224 and a high of Rs 2,023.40 on the BSE.

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Business

Sensex may face resistance at 76,300, Nifty support seen at 23,600: Analysts

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Mumbai, July 26: The benchmark equity indices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming week, with the Sensex facing immediate resistance around the 76,300 level and the Nifty expected to find crucial support near 23,600 after both indices extended losses in a volatile trading week marked by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions and weak banking stocks, analysts said on Sunday.

According to experts, the Sensex surrendered the gains made in the previous week and slipped below the psychologically important 77,000 mark as geopolitical concerns and earnings-related pressures weighed on investor confidence.

“From a technical perspective, the 76,300 zone now acts as immediate resistance. On the downside, the 75,800–75,700 zone is likely to offer immediate support; a break below could open the door towards 75,500–75,400,” a market expert mentioned.

For the Nifty, analysts said the index slipped below the lower end of its month-long consolidation band of 23,800-24,400 and tested support near the rising trendline around the 23,600 level before ending the week at 23,767.45.

“A decisive breach below the 23,600 support zone could accelerate the correction towards the previous swing low of 23,100. On the upside, the 24,000–24,100 region is expected to act as the first resistance, followed by a stronger hurdle around the 24,400 mark,” a market expert mentioned.

Meanwhile, in the previous week, the Indian stock market witnessed heightened volatility as investors turned cautious amid a spike in global crude oil prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainties.

Mixed first-quarter earnings from banking companies further weighed on sentiment, while a weakening rupee and a broader risk-off mood restricted buying despite resilient domestic macroeconomic indicators and stock-specific opportunities emerging during the ongoing earnings season.

The Sensex fell 2.68 per cent over the week to settle at 76,059.77, while the Nifty declined 2.33 per cent to close at 23,767.45.

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Govt earmarks Rs 2,010 crore to boost judicial infra, eCourt modernisation

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New Delhi, July 26: The government has allocated Rs 2,010 crore to boost judicial infrastructure and digitisation of courts, including necessary training and capacity building programmes.

According to Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal, under the Centrally Sponsored Scheme (CSS) for Development of Infrastructure Facilities for the District and Subordinate Courts, a sum of Rs 810 crore has been allocated in the Union Budget 2026 for judicial infrastructure.

In addition, sum of Rs 1,200 crore has been allocated in the Budget for the eCourts Project Phase-III being implemented for digitisation of courts including necessary training and capacity building programmes, he said in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha.

Adequate budgetary provisions are made under these Schemes based on approved outlays and availability of funds.

“However, the expeditious disposal of cases depends on multiple factors including complexity of case, quality of investigation, availability of relevant evidence and presentation thereof by the Advocates, timely delivery of the court processes, active participation of the parties, judicial procedures, etc,” said the minister.

The government, in coordination with states and the judiciary, has taken several measures to ensure accessible, speedy and effective justice across the country.

Meanwhile, a Centrally Sponsored Scheme to set up Fast Track Special Courts (FTSCs), including exclusive POCSO (ePOCSO) courts was launched in October 2019, for the expeditious trial and disposal of pending cases related to rape and offences under the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act, 2012.

The scheme was extended twice, with the last extension valid up to March 31, 2026 for establishment of 790 FTSCs. The scheme has been temporarily extended upto September 30, 2026.

As per the information made available by the High Courts, as of April 30, 775 FTSCs, including 398 exclusive POCSO (e-POCSO) Courts were functional in 29 States/UTs, informed the minister.

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