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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

Business

IT Q2 results beat low expectations, but demand recovery pushed to FY28: Report

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India’s information technology (IT) services sector delivered Q2 FY27 results that were modestly ahead of subdued expectations, but the broader recovery in demand is increasingly being pushed into FY28 as companies contend with pricing pressure and AI-driven disruption, a report said on Friday.

The report from BNP Paribas India said investors responded positively to better-than-expected earnings after analysing quarterly results from 15 Indian IT services companies, including five large-cap and 10 mid-cap firms.

Shares of the covered companies rose by a median 5 per cent following the results after having declined about 23 per cent year-to-date in 2026.

The market rewarded better-than-feared revenue, margin expansion and strong deal momentum, while penalising margin pressure and weak deal wins. Demand remains steady but narrow, with the financial services vertical as the bright spot.

“While FY27 headline revenue growth guidance cuts seemed modest, the organic cut was sharper, implying that FY27 organic revenue is likely to trail FY26, with acquisitions filling in the gap partly,” the report said.

“AI-led work continues to grow even as clients demand pass-back of the productivity gains, shrinking the legacy books and pushing down pricing pressure. With seasonally weak H2FY27, companies now expect recovery in FY28, supported by large deal ramp-ups,” the report noted.

Collectively, 60 per cent of the firms beat on revenue and 53 per cent beat on EBIT margin expectations, while 27 per cent missed on revenue growth and 40 per cent missed EBIT margin expectations.

Deal Total Contract Value (TCV) inched up modestly annually in Q2FY27, underpinned by strong wins of three companies. Headcount increased slightly sequentially, while attrition and utilisations improved modestly.

Another recent report said that management commentary across nearly all major Indian IT companies during Q1 FY27 earnings season showed that clients demanded measurable outcomes, governance frameworks and stronger data foundations before committing to large-scale AI rollouts.

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India bolsters ties with diamond-producing countries

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India, as Chair of the Kimberley Process (KP) for 2026, has flagged key priorities concerning the global diamond industry, including responsible rough diamond sourcing as part of its outreach ahead of the KP Plenary to be held in Delhi from November 30 to December 4, according to a statement issued by the Commerce Ministry on Thursday.

The issue was discussed at a stakeholder consultation in Angola’s Luanda on Tuesday, chaired by Additional Secretary Yashvir Singh on India’s behalf, which brought together the Chairs and Vice-Chairs of KP Working Groups and Committees (KP Working Bodies), the KP Vice-Chair (of Ghana), and the former KP Chair (of the United Arab Emirates). Representatives of observers and partner organisations, including the World Diamond Council and the African Diamond Producers’ Association (ADPA), also participated in the discussion, the statement said.

India has observer status in the ADPA, providing an institutional platform for engagement with African diamond-producing countries. This offers opportunities for cooperation in securing rough diamond supply chains, technical knowledge exchange, value addition, market access and the promotion of ethical and sustainable practices.

The 13th Extraordinary Meeting of the ADPA Council of Ministers, held alongside the 20th anniversary celebrations, approved a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), India, and the ADPA. The MoU seeks to strengthen cooperation between the Indian gem and jewellery industry and African diamond-producing countries, including through capacity building and skills development in diamond sorting, valuation and manufacturing, exchange of technical expertise, and the promotion of trade and investment linkages across the diamond value chain, the statement said.

Yashvir Singh said: “India’s chairship places emphasis on confidence, compliance and credibility. The consultation in Luanda provided an opportunity to engage directly with the leadership of the KP working bodies, the KP Vice-Chair and observers on issues that are important to the future of the Process and the diamond industry. Our endeavour is to build a shared understanding of the issues before the New Delhi Plenary and to advance practical outcomes through constructive dialogue and consensus-based decision-making.”

Discussions covered the sustainability of diamond-producing countries and communities, sustainable funding and continuity of the KP Secretariat, digitalisation of certification and statistical processes, and strengthening compliance with the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme.

Participants also exchanged views on the reform of the conflict diamond definition, responsible sourcing, artisanal and alluvial diamond production, consumer confidence and the importance of effective reporting and peer-review mechanisms.

The ADPA, established in 2006 in Luanda, seeks to enhance cooperation among African diamond-producing nations. It effectively comprises 15 member countries and 8 observers, including two non-African observers, namely Russia and India. Its member countries collectively account for over 60 per cent of global diamond production.

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Business

Adani Ports to acquire Europe’s Evos for 2.56 billion euros in major global expansion

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Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (APSEZ) on Thursday announced the acquisition of Netherlands-based Evos B.V., Europe’s second-largest independent liquid storage operator, in an all-cash transaction valued at an enterprise value of 2.56 billion euros.

Under the agreement, APSEZ will acquire a 100 per cent stake in Evos from Igneo Infrastructure Partners.

The deal values Evos at an equity value of 1.18 billion euros and implies an acquisition multiple of 11.7 times CY25 EV/EBITDA.

The transaction will be funded through debt and remains subject to regulatory approvals and works council consultation.

“APSEZ, India’s largest and one of the world’s fastest growing Integrated Transport Operator, agrees to acquire 100 per cent stake in Netherlands-headquartered Evos B.V. (Evos) from Igneo Infrastructure Partners. The proposed transaction is an all-cash deal at an enterprise value of 2.56 bn euros,” the official statement said.

For calendar year 2025, Evos reported revenue of 392 million euros and EBITDA of 219 million euros, translating into a robust EBITDA margin of 56 per cent.

Following the acquisition, the combined entity’s pro forma net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is expected to stand at 2.76 times and decline to around 2.5 times by FY27.

Commenting on the deal, Karan Adani, Managing Director of APSEZ, said the acquisition marks a significant milestone in the company’s journey toward handling one billion tonnes of cargo and building a truly global integrated transport platform.

“Evos marks an important milestone in APSEZ’s trajectory towards handling 1 billion tons of cargo and building a truly global, integrated transport platform. We are delighted to welcome Evos into our portfolio, giving us significant presence across key global liquid storage and energy hubs,” Karan Adani noted.

“We look forward to partnering with Europe, supporting its sustainable energy transition and creating enduring value while maintaining the financial prudence that underpins our growth,” he added.

Headquartered in the Netherlands, Evos operates 6.3 million cubic metres of storage capacity across eight strategically located port-based terminals in the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Belgium and Malta.

The company has a presence in major energy and industrial hubs, including the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region, Hamburg and the Mediterranean.

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