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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

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Sensex, Nifty trade muted in early deals amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, May 27: Domestic equity markets traded on a muted note in early deals on Wednesday amid mixed global cues and a decline in crude oil prices.

Sensex was trading at 76,050, up 40 points or 0.05 per cent in the morning session, while Nifty rose 20 points or 0.08 per cent to 23,932. Earlier, the benchmark indices opened at 75,939.86 and 23,880.35, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal emerged as the top gainer, climbing 1.59 per cent, followed by Nifty Cement, which advanced 0.83 per cent. Nifty Media, Realty and Consumer Durables also traded higher, rising up to 0.67 per cent.

On the other hand, Nifty Oil & Gas was the top loser, falling 0.66 per cent. While private banks, financial services and IT indices also traded in the red, declining up to 0.33 per cent.

Among Nifty stocks, selling pressure was visible in select heavyweight counters, with Coal India dropping over 4 per cent and ONGC slipping nearly 3 per cent. HDFC Bank, Infosys and Wipro also remained under pressure.

Meanwhile, the volatility index India VIX gained 0.68 per cent to trade around 16.

According to analysts, the near-term market tone remains cautious but stable, as recent profit booking at higher levels indicates some consolidation after the sharp recovery phase.

“Despite intermittent weakness, controlled volatility and balanced market breadth suggest that broader sentiment has not deteriorated significantly,” they added.

Meanwhile, Iran on Tuesday accused the United States of violating the ceasefire by carrying out strikes near the disputed Strait of Hormuz, while Washington maintained that the attacks were defensive in nature.

In the commodity market, crude oil prices declined, with international benchmark Brent crude falling 1.73 per cent to $97.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped over 2 per cent to $91.87 per barrel.

In Asia, markets traded mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined nearly 1 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI rose up to almost 5 per cent.

Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.61 per cent and the Nasdaq closing 1.19 per cent higher.

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Indian equity markets trade flat after fresh US strikes in Iran

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Mumbai, May 26: Indian equity markets traded flat in morning trade on Tuesday after fresh US strikes in southern Iran targeting boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites.

In early trade, Sensex was at 76,339.29, down 150 points or 0.20 per cent, while Nifty slipped 45 points or 0.19 per cent to 23,986.40. Earlier in the day, the benchmark indices opened at 76,224.14 and 24,004.10, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, IT, chemicals, media, PSU banks and metal stocks traded in positive territory.

Nifty IT rose 0.61 per cent, while Nifty Chemicals gained 0.58 per cent and Nifty Media advanced 0.54 per cent.

On the downside, consumer durables, healthcare, cement and realty indices were under pressure. Nifty Consumer Durables emerged as the top sectoral loser, falling 0.57 per cent, while Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Cement and Nifty Realty declined up to 0.3 per cent.

From the Nifty basket, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) declined over 1 per cent, emerging as one of the top laggards on the benchmark indices. Other notable losers included SBI Life Insurance Company, Max Healthcare Institute, Titan Company, Bharti Airtel, Eternal Ltd and Trent, which fell up to 1 per cent.

In the broader market, small-cap and mid-cap indices outperformed. Nifty Smallcap 100 climbed 0.59 per cent, while Nifty Midcap 150 gained 0.13 per cent.

Meanwhile, the volatility tracker India VIX slipped 1.43 per cent.

Market experts said that despite ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the West Asia conflict, there are no indications of an immediate resolution.

They noted that the recent US “self-defence strikes” in southern Iran have temporarily dampened sentiment, although markets are not viewing the development as the beginning of another phase of military escalation.

According to experts, investor risk appetite remains strong, with markets rallying whenever there are signs of easing tensions and a decline in crude oil prices.

“The sharp rally in the previous session reflected optimism about the resilience of the domestic economy,” they added.

However, experts believe that a resolution of the conflict and a further decline in crude oil prices could help ease macroeconomic pressures facing the economy.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose, with international benchmark Brent crude gaining 1.17 per cent to $98.39 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed more than 3 per cent to $93.90 per barrel.

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CNG Prices Hiked Again By ₹2: Have Rates Increased In Mumbai Too? Find Out Here

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Mumbai: CNG consumers have received temporary relief as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) prices in the city have not been increased despite another fuel hike announced in Delhi and the NCR on Tuesday.

While Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) raised CNG prices in Delhi by Rs 2 per kg, taking rates to Rs 83.09 per kg from May 26, Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) has kept CNG prices unchanged across Mumbai and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).

This means CNG in Mumbai continues to remain priced at Rs 84 per kg, following the earlier hike implemented by MGL earlier this month. The latest Delhi revision marks the fourth CNG price increase in less than two weeks amid rising global energy prices and pressure on domestic fuel retailers.

Although there has been no fresh hike in Mumbai today, auto-rickshaw unions in the city have already renewed their demand for a fare revision after the previous Rs 2 per kg increase announced by MGL on May 14.

Mumbai’s auto unions have argued that rising fuel costs and inflation have increased operating expenses for drivers. Union representatives recently met transport department officials and submitted revised fare calculations based on recommendations of the B Khatua Committee.

At present, the minimum auto-rickshaw fare in Mumbai stands at Rs 26, while passengers are charged Rs 17.14 per kilometre after the base fare. According to union calculations, the per-kilometre fare should now increase to Rs 18.17.

“The expenses on fuel have increased substantially for auto-rickshaw drivers. Inflation and higher Consumer Price Index levels have also affected daily running costs,” Mumbai Rickshawmen’s Union General Secretary Thampi Kurien had said while demanding a fare hike.

The latest developments come at a time when petrol and diesel prices have witnessed repeated hikes across the country over the past two weeks, increasing concerns over transportation costs and inflationary pressure in Mumbai and other metro cities.

Despite today’s relief for Mumbai commuters, transport operators and auto unions are closely monitoring fuel pricing trends amid fears that further increases in global crude oil and gas prices could eventually impact CNG rates in the city as well.

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