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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

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5 of top 10 valued firms lose Rs 1 lakh crore in market value last week

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Mumbai, Aug 16: Five of India’s 10 most-valued companies together saw more than Rs 1 trillion (Rs 1 lakh crore) wiped off their market capitalisation last week as weakness in domestic equities weighed on investor sentiment, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) emerging as the biggest laggard.

The broader market remained under pressure during the week, with the Sensex falling 489.92 points, or 0.62 per cent, while the Nifty declined 204.65 points, or 0.83 per cent.

Among the top-10 valued firms, TCS recorded the sharpest erosion in market value. The IT major’s market capitalisation fell by Rs 34,263.28 crore to Rs 8.53 lakh crore.

Reliance Industries, the country’s most-valued company, also witnessed a substantial decline, with its valuation dropping by Rs 31,869.13 crore to Rs 17.70 lakh crore.

State Bank of India suffered the third-largest loss among the top firms, with its market capitalisation shrinking by Rs 25,891.88 crore to Rs 9.86 lakh crore.

HDFC Bank’s valuation fell by Rs 7,165.37 crore to Rs 11.21 lakh crore, while ICICI Bank lost Rs 2,792.65 crore in market value, ending the week with a valuation of Rs 10.18 lakh crore.

Despite the overall weakness, five companies in the top-10 pack managed to add a combined Rs 55,149.45 crore to their market capitalisation.

Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) led the gainers, with its market valuation rising by Rs 26,438.49 crore to Rs 5.23 lakh crore.

Bharti Airtel also posted strong gains, adding Rs 20,592.13 crore to take its valuation to Rs 12.43 lakh crore.

Bajaj Finance’s market capitalisation increased by Rs 3,548.79 crore to Rs 6.77 lakh crore, while Larsen & Toubro added Rs 2,490.66 crore, pushing its valuation to Rs 5.59 lakh crore. Hindustan Unilever’s market value rose by Rs 2,079.38 crore to Rs 4.91 lakh crore.

At the end of the week, Reliance Industries retained its position as India’s most-valued company, followed by Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, LIC and Hindustan Unilever.

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CM Patel leaves for US, Canada to attract investment ahead of Vibrant Gujarat 2027

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Ahmedabad, Aug 16: Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel departed from Ahmedabad in the early hours of Sunday for a visit to the United States and Canada aimed at attracting global investment and inviting investors and industry leaders to the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2027.

CM Patel is leading a high-level state delegation that will engage with investors, industry associations, emerging technology leaders and members of the Gujarati community during the overseas outreach.

The visit comes ahead of the summit scheduled for January 2027, with the state stepping up international engagement to showcase its industrial and economic opportunities.

The delegation will hold roundtable conferences and one-to-one meetings in Washington DC, New York and San Francisco in the US, followed by engagements in Toronto, Canada.

The meetings are intended to present Gujarat’s development and investment opportunities and extend invitations to participate in the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit.

Chief Secretary M.K. Das; Additional Chief Secretary of Finance, T. Natarajan; Additional Chief Secretary of Industries and Mines, Mamta Verma; Principal Secretary to the Chief Minister, Sanjeev Kumar; and Additional Principal Secretary to the Chief Minister, Dr Vikrant Pandey; are accompanying CM Patel, along with representatives from the state’s trade and industry sector.

Officials said the delegation would particularly engage with investors and leaders in emerging technology sectors while also reaching out to the Gujarati diaspora.

The overseas meetings form part of Gujarat’s broader preparations for the 2027 summit, with international outreach programmes planned to build participation and investment interest.

The visit also marks the first official trip to the US by a sitting Gujarat Chief Minister since 1995, according to reports.

CM Patel’s tour is scheduled to cover the US and Canada from August 17 to 24.

The Chief Minister’s departure from Ahmedabad Airport was attended by officials including Collector Bhavya Verma, who extended their wishes for the visit.

The Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit, conceived in 2003, has developed into an international platform for business networking, investment and strategic partnerships. The next edition is scheduled for January 2027.

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Gold, silver decline up to 1 pc as US-Iran tensions weigh sentiment

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New Delhi, Aug 14: Gold and silver prices traded sharply lower on Friday amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of never-before-seen economic measures against Iran.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (October) declined as much as 0.8 per cent or Rs 1,233 to Rs 1,52,233, hitting an intraday low by 10:22 am.

At the last count, the yellow metal was trading at 1,52,415, down Rs 1,051 or 0.68 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,200 so far in the session, a decrease of 0.17 per cent or Rs 266 from the previous close.

Similarly, silver futures (September) recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,32,454, decreasing 1.27 per cent or Rs 2,993.

The white metal was trading at Rs 2,32,880, down Rs 2,567 or about 1 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 2,33,982, down 0.62 per cent or Rs 1,465.

Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,53,200 and Rs 2,33,780, respectively on the MCX.

The selling pressure in precious metals came after reports suggest that Bessent said the US would use a combination of economic isolation and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to market experts, MCX Gold extends downside momentum, trading near Rs 152,500 after facing rejection from highs near Rs 155,500.

They further noted that immediate resistance is placed at Rs 153,000–Rs 153,500 near open and a decisive move above could push toward Rs 154,000–Rs 154,500.

Immediate support is seen at Rs 152,000–Rs 151,500, followed by stronger support at Rs 151,000, the experts said adding that price continues to hold comfortably above all major EMAs, but MACD indicates slowing bullish momentum and RSI reverses from overbought territory, reflecting possible near-term pressure.

For MCX Silver, the experts stated that immediate support is seen at the Rs 232,000 zone, followed by stronger support at Rs 231,500–Rs 231,000.

Price breaks below the 20-day EMA, with MACD indicating slowing bullish momentum, while RSI eases, supporting the trend-reversal narrative and reflecting near-term pressure. Bias remains cautious, with a break below Rs 232,000 likely to invite further downside.

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