Business
‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’
Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.
Excerpts from the interview:
Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?
A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.
Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?
A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.
Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?
A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.
Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?
A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.
Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?
A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.
Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?
A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.
Business
‘Make attractive fuel option’: Govt panel favours scrapping excise duty on CNG

New Delhi, April 17: A high-level government committee, supported by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), has recommended removing excise duty on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to lower prices and promote consumption of the green fuel to meet India’s target of achieving a 15 per cent share of natural gas in the fuel mix by 2030.
The key recommendations include removing the 14 per cent excise duty to make CNG a more attractive fuel option and also lowering GST on CNG vehicles to 5 per cent to bring them on par with electric vehicles to accelerate adoption.
The recommendations favour maintaining a competitive price difference between CNG and petrol so that consumers are encouraged to switch to the green fuel.
The tax relief on natural gas is anticipated to impact roughly 1.9 crore households and 38.41 lakh potential users.
These proposals aim to address the currently high taxes, such as the 14 per cent excise duty and state VAT, which have made CNG less competitive in certain regions, particularly in the southern states.
Meanwhile, the government has also been encouraging households to switch to piped natural gas (PNG) from LPG as the West Asia crisis has disrupted supply chains. The expansion of piped natural gas (PNG) has gained momentum, with about 4.58 lakh new PNG connections being gasified and about 5.1 lakh additional customers registering for new connections since March this year.
Till April 15, about 35,000 PNG consumers have surrendered their LPG connections via MYPNGD.in website. States have been advised to facilitate new PNG connections for domestic and commercial consumers.
The government is encouraging natural gas adoption through synergy between the PNGRB and states as part of India’s transition toward a cleaner and more sustainable energy future. As part of the strategy to increase the share of natural gas in the country’s energy mix, the expansion of the City Gas Distribution (CGD) network through Piped Natural Gas (PNG) connections has emerged as one of the key performing areas.
Spearheaded by entities authorised by the PNGRB, the CGD network now spans 307 geographical areas (GAs), covering nearly 100 per cent of the country’s geographical area except islands, touching around 784 districts across 34 states and Union Territories. The government has undertaken a series of policy and regulatory measures to catalyse growth in this sector.
These measures range from allocating administered price domestic gas and easing supply mechanisms to mandating PNG provisions in government and defence residential complexes, granting Public Utility status to CGD projects, and directing the CPWD and the NBCC to include PNG provisions in all government residential complexes.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open higher as geopolitical tensions ease

Mumbai, April 16: The Indian stock markets opened on a higher note on Thursday, with the equity benchmarks mirroring global cues amid hopes of easing geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Sensex opened 566 points or 0.73 per cent higher at 78,677 in opening trade, while Nifty began the session at 24,385, up 154 points or 0.64 per cent. Sectorally, gains were led by realty, media, consumer durables and financial stocks.
Category-wise, small-cap and mid-cap stocks were the top gainers, with the Nifty Smallcap 100, Nifty Smallcap 250 and Nifty Midcap 100 rising up to 1 per cent in early trade.
On Wednesday, FIIs remained net buyers to the tune of approximately Rs 666 crore, while DIIs turned net sellers with outflows of around Rs 569 crore.
According to analysts, volatility could pick up again depending on global developments and upcoming triggers.
After the recent sharp rally, the market may witness some consolidation or profit booking at higher levels, they added.
In contrast, oil commodities traded on a firm note, with Brent crude futures at $94.92 per barrel, down 0.03 per cent, while US WTI crude traded at $91.52, up 0.25 per cent.
On the global front, both US and Asian markets showed positive momentum. Japan’s Nikkei was trading over 2 per cent higher, Hang Seng climbed more than 1 per cent, and South Korea’s KOSPI was up about 2 per cent.
In the US overnight, Wall Street’s major indices — the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq — ended 0.80 per cent and 1.6 per cent higher, respectively.
Meanwhile, the US President said that China is ‘very happy’ with the permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“I am doing it for them also – and the world. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran,” he said on his social media platform, Truth Social.
However, the war has resulted in the largest-ever disruption of global oil and gas supplies by choking traffic through the strait, pushing crude prices to nearly $120 per barrel.
Business
Gold holds steady amid easing US-Iran tensions; silver gains on MCX

Mumbai, Gold prices remained largely steady on Wednesday as improving prospects of easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran kept investor sentiment in check.
During early trade, MCX gold May futures were marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at Rs 1,53,305 per 10 grams.
Commenting on gold technical outlook, experts said that a sustained move above Rs 1,55,000 could revive momentum toward Rs 1,57,000-Rs 1,58,000.
“On the downside, a break below Rs 1,54,000 may lead to a corrective move toward Rs 1,52,000 and further to Rs 1,50,000,” an analyst stated.
Silver prices, however, saw stronger buying interest, with MCX silver May futures rising 0.83 per cent to Rs 2,54,842 per kg.
“Resistance is placed at Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,63,000, with further upside toward Rs 2,68,000–Rs 2,70,000,” a market expert said.
“A sustained move above these levels could strengthen momentum and support further gains. On the downside, a break below Rs 2,48,000 may lead to a corrective move toward the Rs 2,44,000–Rs 2,40,000 range,” as per an analyst.
In the previous session, gold had ended flat at Rs 1,53,216 per 10 grams, while silver futures slipped 0.1 per cent to Rs 2,25,499 per kg.
Globally, the yellow metal held on to its recent gains amid optimism that Washington and Tehran could move towards a negotiated settlement to the conflict that began on February 28.
The easing of tensions has reduced fears of a sharp energy-supply shock, which had earlier raised concerns about inflationary pressures.
Spot gold hovered near $4,850 an ounce after rising as much as 0.6 per cent during the session. The metal had surged over 2 per cent in the previous trading session on expectations that the US and Iran may soon hold a second round of ceasefire talks.
US President Donald Trump has indicated that negotiations could resume “over the next two days,” further boosting hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.
Despite the recent stability, gold has faced pressure in recent weeks, falling nearly 8 per cent since the conflict began.
Early in the crisis, a liquidity squeeze prompted investors to offload bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.
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