Business
RBI fighting a lost INR battle, say analysts
A stronger USD would imply higher global inflation exported by the US, lower global trade, cry for reverse FX wars, and pressure on equities and emerging markets assets, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a report.
The global narrative is undergoing a substantial regional rotation in favour of the US exceptionalism, even as we are unlikely to see the US growth upgrades. The theme of dollar dominance is still alive.
While GBPINR is down 4 per cent, USDINR is up 2 per cent since the September FOMC meeting — one of the worst EM hits.
“King Dollar is still on the throne… with RBI fighting a lost INR battle,” Emkay Global Financial Services said in the report.
“INR readjustment is catching up faster than peers, as it was held stronger in past adjustments by policy intervention. India’s massive FX defence, amounting to more than US$100bn estimated since October-21 (spot + forwards) means that the war-chest is falling faster than the pace at which the war is fading. Amid emerging regional imbalances, we reiterate that the RBI will eventually let the exchange rate adjust to new realities, albeit in an orderly manner, letting it act as an automatic macro stabilizer to the policy reaction function”, the report said.
The GBP free-fall and massive FX vols have only added another complicated layer to DM FX order, adding credence to our long stated view that dollar dominance is here to stay even as we are unlikely to see US growth upgrades in this downcycle.
US exceptionalism rub-off has finally let the INR loose, despite RBI’s active FX intervention — an indication of the impending range shift. INR readjustment has been swift, and the RBI will eventually need to let the exchange rate adjust to these new realities and act as a natural macro stabiliser, albeit orderly, the report added.
The direct macroeconomic impact of the UK shocks on India will be limited via the trade impact, but global risk will likely weigh on India in the near term. GBP weakness may aid Tata Motors on the UK operational front, albeit this will be countered by near-term MTM losses on its USD-denominated debt. In large-cap ITeS, TCS and Wipro lead in terms of GBP exposure.
Business
Cong flags sharp rupee decline in Rajya Sabha, warns of widespread economic strain

New Delhi, Dec 4: During Zero Hour in the Rajya Sabha on Thursday, Congress MP from Madhya Pradesh Vivek Tankha voiced deep concern over what he described as the “freefall of the Indian rupee” and the widening economic distress affecting ordinary citizens across the country.
Calling the issue “extremely topical and urgent”, Tankha said the currency’s sharp decline was inflicting widespread financial strain on households, businesses and key sectors of the economy.
Tankha noted that the rupee had crashed past Rs 90 per US dollar — touching between 90.14 and 90.19 — marking the weakest level in India’s history. Over the past five years, he said, the rupee has lost between 20 per cent and 27 per cent of its value, effectively reducing the purchasing power of people’s income by nearly one fourth. In global terms, the rupee has fallen 5 per cent this year alone, its steepest drop since 2022, making it one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies in 2025.
He further highlighted that India recently recorded a monthly trade deficit exceeding USD 40 billion, underscoring how sharply imports outweigh exports. At the same time, foreign investors have withdrawn more than USD 17 billion from Indian markets this year — the largest outflow in several years — drying up capital and weakening investor sentiment.
“FDI flows are stagnant, external borrowings have slowed, and the world is becoming increasingly wary of India’s external stability,” Tankha warned.
Emphasising the direct impact on citizens, he said that every bout of rupee depreciation makes imports costlier, and India relies heavily on imported fuel, cooking gas, electronic machinery and medicines. A 5 per cent fall in the rupee, he explained, pushes inflation up by 30-35 basis points.
“Every household ends up paying more. Food prices rise, transport costs increase, and a chain reaction follows that hits the poor the hardest,” he said.
The middle class, he added, is also feeling the squeeze as the prices of smartphones, laptops, medical equipment, school supplies, clothing and household appliances rise due to India’s dependence on imported components.
“For the common person, a falling rupee feels like a salary cut without the employer informing you. Your money buys less every day,” he remarked.
Tankha also drew attention to the pressure on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), many of which rely on imported raw materials. These businesses are facing a 20-30 per cent rise in input costs, shrinking already thin margins.
Machinery imports have become more expensive, slowing expansion and putting jobs at risk. Exporters, he said, are not gaining from the weaker rupee because major export sectors — such as textiles, chemicals and engineering goods — depend heavily on imported intermediaries.
“Small manufacturers are caught in a double blow: higher costs and weaker demand,” he said.
Companies with foreign currency loans are also struggling, with repayment costs rising by 15-20 per cent due to the rupee’s depreciation, weakening corporate balance sheets and threatening financial stability.
A falling rupee, Tankha added, discourages overseas investors, creating a “vicious cycle” where declining confidence further accelerates currency pressure. “As the rupee falls, investors pull out, and markets shift,” he cautioned.
Tankha urged the government to recognise the seriousness of the situation and take urgent corrective measures to stabilise the currency and safeguard vulnerable sectors of the economy.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open lower amid weak global cues

Mumbai, Dec 4: Indian stock markets opened weak on Thursday as pressure from a falling rupee and continued foreign investor selling kept sentiment muted on Dalal Street.
The opening also coincided with the weekly F&O expiry for the Sensex, adding to the cautious mood among traders.
The rupee hit a fresh record low of 90.56 against the US dollar in early trade, worsening concerns about capital outflows.
The sustained depreciation has been fuelled by steady foreign investor selling, firm demand for the dollar, and lingering uncertainty surrounding India’s trade negotiations with the US.
Against this backdrop, the benchmark Sensex began the day at 84,958, down 148 points or 0.17 per cent. The Nifty opened at 25,953, slipping 33 points or 0.13 per cent.
Most heavyweight stocks on the Sensex traded lower in the morning session. HUL, Titan, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Trent, Ultratech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors PV, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank were among the major laggards.
Only a handful of large-cap counters managed to stay in the green. IT majors TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra led the gainers’ list, supported by a stronger dollar. Asian Paints and Bharti Airtel also opened with mild gains.
In the broader market, sentiment was mixed. The Nifty MidCap index edged up 0.17 per cent, showing some resilience, while the Nifty SmallCap index slipped 0.07 per cent.
Market participants said the recent pressure on equities is closely linked to the rupee’s sharp fall. After breaching the 90-per-dollar mark on Wednesday, the currency’s slide has become a key worry for investors, raising concerns over imported inflation and higher costs for companies dependent on overseas supplies.
With global cues still uncertain and the domestic currency under strain, traders expect markets to remain volatile through the day, according to experts.
Business
India-AI Impact Summit 2026 to generate actionable recommendations: Minister

New Delhi, Dec 3: Reflecting India’s growing role in global AI discussions, the country will host the India-AI Impact Summit 2026 here from February 16–20, the government said on Wednesday.
For the first time, the global AI summit series will take place in the Global South and the shift signals a broader move toward a more inclusive global AI dialogue, said Union Minister of State for Electronics and IT, Jitin Prasada, in Lok Sabha.
“In line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, the government is democratising the development and usage of technology. The focus is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) for solving real-world problems and ultimately improving lives across various sectors,” said the minister.
In this regard, the government has taken an inclusive and innovation-friendly approach to AI governance. India’s AI strategy has been formed after studying legal frameworks around the world and extensive consultation with stakeholders. A key pillar of India’s AI strategy is its balanced and pragmatic techno-legal approach to regulation.
The summit reflects India’s growing role in global AI discussions. It follows the UK AI Safety Summit, AI Seoul Summit, Paris AI Action Summit (which India co-chaired), and the Global AI Summit on Africa.
This demonstrates that the Summit is situated within a broader global discourse and seeks to contribute to harmonised international cooperation on responsible AI development, said the minister.
The thematic priorities of the Summit, referred to as the seven ‘Chakras’, underline its key objectives. These include Human Capital, Inclusion, Safe and Trusted AI, Resilience, Innovation and Efficiency, Democratizing AI Resources, and AI for Economic Development and Social Good.
These thematic areas encompass issues such as AI safety, data governance, transparency, human-centred development and accountability frameworks. These discussions are aligned to drive the strategic direction of the Summit’s events and deliberations.
The Summit is intended to generate actionable recommendations that contribute to long-term AI governance objectives rather than framing immediate binding regulations.
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