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Pick up in economic activity to shoot up country’s CAD to over 1% in FY22

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Rupees

With a pick up in economic activity and the consequent rise in imports, India is expected to quickly turn from a position of current account surplus in FY21 to that of current account deficit (CAD) in FY22.

As per an assessment by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), the country’s current account deficit to GDP is likely at 1.1 per cent in FY22 with rupee remaining strong against dollar and remaining in the Rs 72.5-74 range in near term.

The Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown last year has impacted the economic activity in the country with GDP plummeting by over 24 per cent in April-June quarter of FY21.

For the full year FY21, the current account balance recorded a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP as against a deficit of 0.9 per cent in FY20 on the back of a sharp contraction in the trade deficit to $102.2 billion from $157.5 billion in FY20. This was the first time that the country has recorded an annual current account surplus in 17 years. But this surplus was largely on account of a slowdown in imports due to shrinking economic activity.

We expect the overall external sector to remain comfortable but will be subjected to risks from a widening trade deficit, high commodity prices, and policy normalisation in the US, and spread of Covid cases, KIE said in its report.

The rupee has been appreciating significantly recently aided by broad based dollar weakness after a soft rhetoric by the Fed Chair followed by weakening global economic data, muted RBI intervention, and heavy, although lumpy, FII flows in debt. KIE expects this appreciating bias to continue in the near term, especially given the slew of big ticket IPOs lined up in the months ahead and the persistence of wider interest rate gap. However, imminent Fed taper by end- CY2021 and widening domestic trade deficits should gradually weigh on the rupee.

“We maintain our CAD/GDP estimate of 1.1 per cent (US$34.1 bn) in FY2022E and BOP surplus of US$35 billion. We expect USD-INR to remain in the range of 72.5-74 in the near term and will be watchful of shifts in the forex space and volatility when tapering begins,” the report said.

Business

Panvel Municipal Corporation Clears ₹48.40 Crore Gadhi River Bridge Project To Ease Traffic Congestion On Panvel–Karanjade Stretch

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Panvel, November 14: In a major infrastructure push aimed at reducing traffic congestion and improving connectivity, the Panvel Municipal Corporation has cleared a proposal to construct a new bridge over the Gadhi River near the Karanjade sewage pumping station.

Municipal Commissioner and Administrator Mangesh Chitale approved the plan following demands raised by Panvel MLA Prashant Thakur and Uran MLA Mahesh Baldi, who highlighted the daily inconvenience faced by commuters travelling between Panvel, Karanjade and Vadghar’s CIDCO colonies.

According to civic officials, the existing bridge toward Karanjade routinely experiences heavy traffic, often resulting in prolonged congestion. With the upcoming Navi Mumbai International Airport expected to increase traffic volumes even further, the civic body believes the new bridge will be a “critical link” on the Panvel–Karanjade stretch.

The project, with an estimated cost of Rs 48.40 crore, received administrative approval in the General Body. Construction is expected to begin soon.

As per the sanctioned plan, the bridge will feature four lanes, a length of 240 metres, and a width of 21.5 metres. “It will connect Panvel Municipal Corporation’s 40-feet-wide road on the eastern side with CIDCO’s 20-metre-wide road leading to the Karanjade node on the western side.

This connection will significantly streamline traffic and support future vehicular growth,” said Additional Commissioner Ganesh Shete.

For the project, No Objection Certificates (NOCs) will be sought from CIDCO, the Water Resources Department, and the Public Works Department. The conceptual design will undergo technical review and approval by either IIT Mumbai or VJTI Mumbai, City Engineer Sanjay Katekar confirmed.

The civic administration expects the bridge to provide major relief to residents and improve overall mobility in the rapidly developing Panvel–Karanjade region.

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Business

Stock market ends on positive note over NDA’s huge victory in Bihar polls

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Mumbai, Nov 14: Indian equity indices recovered from early losses to end the session on a positive note on Friday as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed towards a landslide win in the Bihar elections.

The key indices remained volatile throughout the session as counting for votes for Bihar’s Assembly election continues.

Sensex settled at 84,562.78, up 84.11 points or 0.10 per cent. The share index started the session at 84,060.14, falling over 400 points against last day’s closing of 84,478.67 amid caution ahead of Bihar election results. However, the index jumped over 550 points from the day’s low to close in green.

Nifty closed at 25,910.05, up 30.90 points or 0.12 per cent.

“Indian markets today witnessed a roller-coaster session with the benchmark index Nifty showing sharp two-sided moves. In the first half, Nifty surged and tested the crucial 26,000 level before facing resistance and slipping lower later in the day,” Ashika Institutional Equities said in its note.

Volatility remained elevated as investors stayed cautious ahead of Bihar election results, which hold significant political importance.

Tata Motors, Eternal, Axis Bank, BEL, Trent, SBI, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finance, Adani Airports, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, ITC and NTPC were the top gainers from the Sensex basket. Infosys, Tata Steel, Tata Motors PV, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki and Tech Mahindra ended the session lower.

Sectoral indices experienced a mixed approach with selling in the IT and auto sectors and buying in the FMCG, banking and finance stocks. Nifty Bank rose 135 points or 0.23 per cent, Nifty Fin Services jumped 95 points or 0.35 per cent, and Nifty FMCG closed 317 points or 0.57 per cent higher. While Nifty IT slipped 378 points or 1.03 per cent, and Nifty Auto fell 143 points or 0.52 per cent.

Broader market followed suit as well, with Nifty Midcap 100 closed flat, Nifty Small Cap 100 rose 68 points or 0.38 per cent, and Nifty 100 ended the session slightly up.

Rupee traded in a narrow range near 88.70 as the dollar index remained flat around $99.20, offering limited directional cues.

“With no major U.S. data releases due to the recent shutdown, the market stayed largely dependent on flows, where mixed FII activity and consistent DII buying kept the rupee in a confined band. Crude prices have begun to rebound, and if WTI sustains above $60, it may add fresh pressure on the rupee in the coming sessions. Overall, the rupee is expected to remain range-bound with levels seen between 88.45–88.95,” said Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities.

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Business

Anil Ambani skips ED questioning, no virtual appearance allowed (Lead)

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New Delhi, Nov 14: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) will not grant any virtual appearance to Reliance ADAG Group Chairman Anil D. Ambani after the latter sought it in response to a summons sent by the investigative agency to appear before it for questioning in a money laundering case, according to sources on Friday.

Anil Ambani skipped the ED summons to appear for the second round of questioning at the agency’s Delhi headquarters on Friday (November 14).

As per ED sources, no virtual appearance will be given to Anil Ambani, as requested. The regulator, however, has received an email from him regarding his availability via virtual means.

Anil Ambani, in a media statement, said that he is “willing to offer to appear by virtual means”, adding that he will “fully cooperate with ED on all matters”.

The statement claimed that “ED summons to Anil D. Ambani relate to a Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) inquiry and not to any matter under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA)”.

The summons concerns a 2010 domestic EPC contract for the Jaipur–Reengus (JR) Toll Road and concerns issues associated with a road contractor, with no foreign exchange component, it said.

“Anil D. Ambani is not a member of the Board of Reliance Infrastructure. He served the company for about fifteen years, from April 2007 to March 2022, only as a non-executive director, and was never involved in the day-to-day management of the company,” it added.

The ED had summoned Anil Ambani again on November 14 for questioning in the money laundering case against the conglomerate. He faced a gruelling, around nine-hour interrogation regarding an alleged Rs 17,000-crore loan fraud case at ED headquarters in August.

The financial probe agency had earlier attached 42 properties worth over Rs 3,083 crore in the bank fraud cases of Reliance Communications Ltd. (RCOM), Reliance Commercial Finance Ltd., and Reliance Home Finance Ltd.

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