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Pick up in economic activity to shoot up country’s CAD to over 1% in FY22

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Rupees

With a pick up in economic activity and the consequent rise in imports, India is expected to quickly turn from a position of current account surplus in FY21 to that of current account deficit (CAD) in FY22.

As per an assessment by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), the country’s current account deficit to GDP is likely at 1.1 per cent in FY22 with rupee remaining strong against dollar and remaining in the Rs 72.5-74 range in near term.

The Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown last year has impacted the economic activity in the country with GDP plummeting by over 24 per cent in April-June quarter of FY21.

For the full year FY21, the current account balance recorded a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP as against a deficit of 0.9 per cent in FY20 on the back of a sharp contraction in the trade deficit to $102.2 billion from $157.5 billion in FY20. This was the first time that the country has recorded an annual current account surplus in 17 years. But this surplus was largely on account of a slowdown in imports due to shrinking economic activity.

We expect the overall external sector to remain comfortable but will be subjected to risks from a widening trade deficit, high commodity prices, and policy normalisation in the US, and spread of Covid cases, KIE said in its report.

The rupee has been appreciating significantly recently aided by broad based dollar weakness after a soft rhetoric by the Fed Chair followed by weakening global economic data, muted RBI intervention, and heavy, although lumpy, FII flows in debt. KIE expects this appreciating bias to continue in the near term, especially given the slew of big ticket IPOs lined up in the months ahead and the persistence of wider interest rate gap. However, imminent Fed taper by end- CY2021 and widening domestic trade deficits should gradually weigh on the rupee.

“We maintain our CAD/GDP estimate of 1.1 per cent (US$34.1 bn) in FY2022E and BOP surplus of US$35 billion. We expect USD-INR to remain in the range of 72.5-74 in the near term and will be watchful of shifts in the forex space and volatility when tapering begins,” the report said.

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PM Modi’s dream of developed India by 2047 becomes collective resolve of every citizen

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New Delhi, Sep 17: Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, the dream of a developed India by 2047 has today become the collective resolve of every citizen, Union Minister Pralhad Joshi said on Wednesday.

Wishing PM Modi on his 75th birthday, the minister said that in the past 11 years, “your tireless hard work and dedication have brought unprecedented transformation in the lives of crores of Indians”.

“You have ignited the lamp of patriotism in the heart of every citizen and awakened a resolve for active participation in nation-building. May God grant you excellent health and a long life, so that you continue to serve Mother India with the same dedication and energy in the coming years,” Joshi noted in a post on X.

Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia said that meeting PM Modi for the first time as a member of his cabinet was a truly unforgettable experience for him.

“His deep interest in every subject, open mindedness, and out of the box perspective gave me new energy and inspired me to fulfill my responsibilities with even greater dedication and enthusiasm,” he posted on X.

“That one experience endowed me with the ability to serve the people with complete devotion for a lifetime, and for that, I will always remain deeply grateful to him from the bottom of my heart,” Scindia emphasised.

He further stated that PM Modi is dedicated to the development of every individual and is devoted to the principles of Antyodaya.

Minister of State for Commerce and Industry, Jitin Prasada, said that under PM Modi’s leadership, the significant decision of GST reforms will not only simplify and ease the lives of citizens but also provide new energy to the industry and business world, while promoting local production and entrepreneurship.

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Urban Company IPO Surges On Debut, Listed At 60% Premium – What Drove The Buzz?

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Mumbai: Urban Company created a big buzz on its first day in the stock market. The company’s IPO (Initial Public Offering) was listed on September 17 on both the BSE and NSE. The issue price was Rs 103 per share, but it opened much higher at Rs 162.25 per share. This gave investors an immediate listing gain of almost 60 percent, which is a huge return on the first day itself.

The Rs 1,900 crore IPO opened for subscription from September 10 to 12, and it received an overwhelming response. The IPO was subscribed more than 103 times in total. This means demand was over 100 times more than the number of shares available. Big institutional investors showed the most interest, but retail and high-net-worth investors also participated in large numbers.

Out of the total IPO amount, Urban Company raised Rs 472 crore as fresh issue, and the rest came through an Offer for Sale (OFS) of Rs 1,428 crore. The company plans to use the fresh funds for marketing initiatives and technology upgrades, which will help it grow faster. Before the IPO, Urban Company also raised Rs 854 crore from major anchor investors, including names like SBI Funds, HDFC Mutual Fund, Fidelity, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, and others.

Urban Company is a popular platform that offers home and beauty services. Customers can book services such as cleaning, pest control, plumbing, carpentry, electrical work, painting, beauty treatments, grooming, and massage therapy. The company currently operates in 51 cities across India, UAE, and Singapore, and it is also present in Saudi Arabia through a joint venture. Urban Company is growing quickly and aims to become a global leader in home services.

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Sensex, Nifty open higher as India-US trade talks set to resume

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Mumbai, Sep 16: The Indian benchmark indices opened higher on Tuesday amid mixed global cues, as US Chief Negotiator Brendan Lynch arrived in India to resume trade negotiations between the two nations.

As of 9.25 am, the Sensex was up 184 points or 0.23 per cent at 81,970, and the Nifty was up 47 points or 0.19 per cent at 25,117.

The broadcap indices outperformed benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.26 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 moved up 0.70 per cent.

Kotak Mahindra, Axis Bank and Hero Motocorp were the top gainers on NSE Nifty 50 index. Titan Company, SBI Life Insurance, Asian Paints and Tata Consumer Products weighed on the Nifty 50 index.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Media, the top gainer, jumped 1.08 per cent. Nifty Auto (up 0.65 per cent) and Nifty Oil and gas (up 0.57 per cent) were the other major gainers. Except Nifty FMCG and Nifty PSU Bank, which were marginally down, all other indices were in the green.

Analysts said that, from a technical standpoint, a sustained move above the 25,160 level could pave the way for a rally toward 25,250 and 25,500 zones. The immediate support lies at 25,000 and 24,900 zones.

“The bold reforms – both fiscal and monetary – implemented this year have started yielding results and is likely to gather momentum in near future. An India-US trade agreement without the penal tariffs can be a shot in the arm for markets,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Major US indices ended firmly in the green zone overnight as the Nasdaq rose 0.94 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.47 per cent, and the Dow advanced 0.11 per cent.

Most of the Asian markets made strong gains during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index dipped 0.1 per cent, and Shenzhen inched down 0.26 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.54 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index inched up 0.07 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi inched up 1.2 per cent.

The US markets are pricing in a 96.4 per cent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, with additional cuts expected through year-end.

On Monday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,268 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 1,933 crore.

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