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Pick up in economic activity to shoot up country’s CAD to over 1% in FY22

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Rupees

With a pick up in economic activity and the consequent rise in imports, India is expected to quickly turn from a position of current account surplus in FY21 to that of current account deficit (CAD) in FY22.

As per an assessment by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), the country’s current account deficit to GDP is likely at 1.1 per cent in FY22 with rupee remaining strong against dollar and remaining in the Rs 72.5-74 range in near term.

The Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown last year has impacted the economic activity in the country with GDP plummeting by over 24 per cent in April-June quarter of FY21.

For the full year FY21, the current account balance recorded a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP as against a deficit of 0.9 per cent in FY20 on the back of a sharp contraction in the trade deficit to $102.2 billion from $157.5 billion in FY20. This was the first time that the country has recorded an annual current account surplus in 17 years. But this surplus was largely on account of a slowdown in imports due to shrinking economic activity.

We expect the overall external sector to remain comfortable but will be subjected to risks from a widening trade deficit, high commodity prices, and policy normalisation in the US, and spread of Covid cases, KIE said in its report.

The rupee has been appreciating significantly recently aided by broad based dollar weakness after a soft rhetoric by the Fed Chair followed by weakening global economic data, muted RBI intervention, and heavy, although lumpy, FII flows in debt. KIE expects this appreciating bias to continue in the near term, especially given the slew of big ticket IPOs lined up in the months ahead and the persistence of wider interest rate gap. However, imminent Fed taper by end- CY2021 and widening domestic trade deficits should gradually weigh on the rupee.

“We maintain our CAD/GDP estimate of 1.1 per cent (US$34.1 bn) in FY2022E and BOP surplus of US$35 billion. We expect USD-INR to remain in the range of 72.5-74 in the near term and will be watchful of shifts in the forex space and volatility when tapering begins,” the report said.

Business

Indian Railways Introduces Discounted ‘Round Trip Package’ To Ease Festive Season Travel

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New Delhi: To avoid rush by ensuring hassle-free ticket booking experience during the upcoming peak festive seasons, the Ministry of Railways on Saturday said that it has decided to formulate a ‘Round Trip Package’ on discounted fare and rebates benefit.

The move will facilitate passengers and redistribute the peak traffic for a larger range during peak festival seasons and ensure both sides utilisation of trains, including special trains.

“It has been decided to formulate an experimental scheme named as Round Trip Package for festival rush on discounted fare,” the Railways Ministry stated.

According to the ministry, the scheme will be applicable for those passengers who choose their return journey during the prescribed period.

Under this scheme, rebates shall be applicable when booked for both the onward and return journey for the same set of passengers.

Passenger details of the return journey will be the same as those of the onward journey. Passengers can book their tickets from August 14 for the advance reservation period (ARP) date of October 13.

“An onward ticket shall be booked first for the train start date between 13th October 2025 and 26th October 2025, and subsequently return journey ticket shall be booked by using the connecting journey feature for the train start date between 17th November and 1st December 2025,” the Ministry stated.

However, advance reservation period will not be applicable for booking of return journey.

Other conditions to avail the benefits of the railway’s new special scheme are the booking shall be permissible only for confirmed tickets in both directions, total rebates of 20 per cent shall be granted on base fare of return journey only, booking under this scheme shall be for the same class and same O-D pair for both onward and return journey.

According to Railways, no refund of fare shall be permissible for the tickets booked under this scheme.

This scheme shall be allowed for all classes and in all trains, including special trains (Trains on demand), except trains having Flexi fare.

In addition, no modification will be allowed on these tickets in either of the journeys, and there will be no discounts, Rail travel coupons, Voucher-based bookings, or Passes be admissible during return journey booking on concessional fare.

Passenger can book their ticket via both online and offline modes; however, both onward and return journey tickets must be booked using the same mode (online or offline).

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Business

Sensex crosses 81,000 Mark, Nifty Jumps 157 Points On Strong Metal & Auto Stocks

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Mumbai: The Indian stock market ended Monday on a strong note, with the BSE Sensex rising 418.81 points (0.52%) to close at 81,018.72, crossing the key 81,000 mark. During the day, it touched a high of 81,093.19. The NSE Nifty also surged by 157.40 points (0.64%) to end at 24,722.75, after hitting an intraday high of 24,734.65.

Top gainers and losers

Among major gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, BEL, Adani Ports, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Trent, M&M, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement and L&T.

On the flip side, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Hindustan Unilever ended the session with losses.

Why the market rallied

The market’s rally was mainly driven by strong performances in the metal and auto sectors. According to experts, a weakening US dollar, strong auto sales, and positive Q1 results from key companies helped boost investor confidence.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said,

“Consumption-driven companies are showing recovery in volume demand. Also, weak US job data may lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.”

Global cues positive

Asian markets mostly ended in the green with Hong Kong, South Korea, and China posting gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei closed in red.

European markets were trading positively, while US markets had ended lower on Friday.

Oil prices also slipped, with Brent crude falling 1.15% to USD 68.87 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 3,366.40 crore on Friday, as per exchange data.

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Business

India Lost ₹22,842 Crore To Cybercriminals & Fraudsters In 2024: DataLEADS

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India lost Rs 22,842 crore to cybercriminals and fraudsters in 2024, DataLEADS, a Delhi-based media and tech company, said in its report on widespread digital financial frauds in the country. The amount stolen by digital criminals and fraudsters last year was nearly three times more than the Rs 7,465 crore in 2023 and almost 10 times more than the Rs 2,306 in 2022, DataLEADS said in ‘Contours of Cybercrime: Persistent and Emerging Risk of Online Financial Frauds and Deepfakes in India.

Prediction For Cyber-Crime Frauds

The Indian Cybercrime Coordination Centre, I4C, a federal agency that liaises between state and central law enforcement, predicts Indians will lose over Rs 1.2 lakh crore this year. The number of cybercrime complaints has spiked similarly; nearly twenty lakh were reported in 2024, up from around 15.6 lakh the year before and ten times more than were logged in 2019.

The surge in the number of cybercrime complaints and the volume of money lost points to one inescapable conclusion – India’s digital crooks are getting smarter and more efficient, and, in a country with a staggering nearly 290 lakh unemployed people, their ranks are increasing.

Bank-related frauds have increased dramatically; the Reserve Bank of India reported a nearly eightfold jump in the first half of FY 2025/26 compared to the same period last year. And the amount of money lost was staggering – Rs 2,623 crore to Rs 21,367 crore. Private sector banks accounted for nearly 60 per cent of all such incidents. But it was customers in public sector banks who were worst-hit; they lost Rs 25,667 crore in all.

Why have these numbers jumped so much over the past three years?

Because of the increased use of digital payment modes – i.e., smartphone-enabled services like Paytm and PhonePe – and the sharing and processing of financial details online – via (what many believe are encrypted and fail-safe) messaging platforms like WhatsApp and Telegram.

Federal data says there were over 190 lakh UPI, or unified payment interface, transactions in June 2025 alone, and these were worth a combined Rs 24.03 lakh crore. Digital payments’ value has grown from roughly Rs 162 crore in 2013 to Rs 18,120.82 crore in January 2025, and India accounts for nearly half of all such payments worldwide.

COVID-19

Much of this increase can be attributed to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns.

During COVID-19, the government pushed for a switch to UPI apps like Paytm to ensure social distancing and minimise contact with currency notes, via which the virus could be transmitted.

Digital Payment Tools In Rural Areas

The government also reasoned that digital payment tools would ensure greater penetration of financial services, particularly in rural areas. By 2019, India already had 440 million smartphone users and data rates were among the cheapest in the world – 1 GB cost Rs 200, or less than $3.

Insurance sector scams were also common. These included life, health, vehicle, and general, and are becoming an increasingly lucrative option for cybercriminals, particularly as insurance companies urge customers to opt for app-based services.

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