Business
Pick up in economic activity to shoot up country’s CAD to over 1% in FY22
With a pick up in economic activity and the consequent rise in imports, India is expected to quickly turn from a position of current account surplus in FY21 to that of current account deficit (CAD) in FY22.
As per an assessment by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), the country’s current account deficit to GDP is likely at 1.1 per cent in FY22 with rupee remaining strong against dollar and remaining in the Rs 72.5-74 range in near term.
The Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown last year has impacted the economic activity in the country with GDP plummeting by over 24 per cent in April-June quarter of FY21.
For the full year FY21, the current account balance recorded a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP as against a deficit of 0.9 per cent in FY20 on the back of a sharp contraction in the trade deficit to $102.2 billion from $157.5 billion in FY20. This was the first time that the country has recorded an annual current account surplus in 17 years. But this surplus was largely on account of a slowdown in imports due to shrinking economic activity.
We expect the overall external sector to remain comfortable but will be subjected to risks from a widening trade deficit, high commodity prices, and policy normalisation in the US, and spread of Covid cases, KIE said in its report.
The rupee has been appreciating significantly recently aided by broad based dollar weakness after a soft rhetoric by the Fed Chair followed by weakening global economic data, muted RBI intervention, and heavy, although lumpy, FII flows in debt. KIE expects this appreciating bias to continue in the near term, especially given the slew of big ticket IPOs lined up in the months ahead and the persistence of wider interest rate gap. However, imminent Fed taper by end- CY2021 and widening domestic trade deficits should gradually weigh on the rupee.
“We maintain our CAD/GDP estimate of 1.1 per cent (US$34.1 bn) in FY2022E and BOP surplus of US$35 billion. We expect USD-INR to remain in the range of 72.5-74 in the near term and will be watchful of shifts in the forex space and volatility when tapering begins,” the report said.
Business
Gold, silver tumble as hopes of December Fed Rate cut fade

Mumbai, Nov 18: Gold and silver prices dropped sharply in the domestic futures market on Tuesday morning as hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December faded and concerns over US tariffs eased.
This reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets like bullion. At early trade, MCX Gold December futures were trading 1.19 per cent lower at Rs 1,21,466 per 10 grams.
MCX Silver December contracts also declined 1.65 per cent to Rs 1,52,750 per kg.
“Gold has support at $4000-3965 while resistance at $4075-4110. Silver has support at $49.70-49.45 while resistance is at $50.75-51.10,” market watchers said.
“In INR gold has support at Rs1,22,350-1,21,780 while resistance at Rs1,23,750-1,24,500. Silver has support at Rs1,53,850-1,52,100 while resistance at Rs1,56,540, 1,57,280,” they added.
Internationally, gold prices slipped for the fourth straight session on Tuesday.
A stronger US dollar and weakening expectations of a rate cut next month continued to weigh on the metal.
The dollar index rose to 99.59, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold, which is priced in US dollars, becomes costlier when the greenback strengthens, resulting in reduced demand.
The recent US government shutdown, which lasted a record 43 days, had delayed the release of important economic data, creating uncertainty about the condition of the world’s largest economy.
With the shutdown now over, attention has shifted to key data releases expected this week, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday.
These numbers will play a major role in shaping expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to send mixed signals on the future path of monetary policy, adding further uncertainty to the market.
With no major positive fundamental triggers in recent days, bulls remain hesitant—especially with both metals still trading at historically high levels.
“Traders now await a fresh round of US economic data later this week. Meanwhile, a firmer US Dollar Index and slightly higher 10-year Treasury yields added pressure to precious metals,” analysts said.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open lower on weak global cues

Mumbai, Nov 18: Indian stock markets opened lower on Tuesday as weak global cues weighed on investor sentiment. Both benchmark indices slipped 0.2 per cent at the opening bell.
The Sensex dropped 195 points to trade at 84,756 in early deals, while the Nifty fell 64 points to 25,949. Most heavyweight stocks were under pressure, dragging the indices down.
“Immediate resistance now lies at 26,100, followed by 26,150, while the 25,850–25,900 band is likely to offer meaningful support and serve as an accumulation zone for positional traders,” market experts said.
“These levels will remain crucial as the index navigates early weakness,” experts noted.
Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma and Titan were among the major laggards, declining between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent.
However, a few stocks managed to stay in positive territory. Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Eternal and State Bank of India were the only gainers on the Sensex, rising up to 0.5 per cent.
Broader markets also opened weak, with the Nifty MidCap index slipping 0.25 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index falling 0.40 per cent.
Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank was the only one to trade higher, gaining 0.25 per cent. On the other hand, Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal dropped 0.8 per cent each, while the Nifty IT index fell 0.5 per cent.
The Bank Nifty mirrored the broader market’s resilience, reflecting renewed buying momentum.
“Strong support is identified at 58,600, and a breakdown below this mark may trigger a modest decline toward 58,800,” market watchers mentioned.
“On the upside, resistance at 59,100 remains a key barrier, and a sustained breakout above this level may open the path toward 59,300, indicating potential continuation of the bullish trend,” experts stated.
Business
Indian PSU oil companies secure ‘historic’ deal to import 2.2 MTPA LPG from US: Puri

New Delhi, Nov 17: In a key development, Indian public sector oil companies have finalised a deal for imports of around 2.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) LPG for the contract year 2026, to be sourced from the US Gulf Coast, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.
In a post on X social media platform, he said that in a historic first, “one of the largest and the world’s fastest growing LPG market opens up to the United States”.
“In our endeavour to provide secure affordable supplies of LPG to the people of India, we have been diversifying our LPG sourcing,” the minister said.
“In a significant development, Indian PSU oil companies have successfully concluded a 1-year-deal for imports of around 2.2 MTPA LPG, close to 10 per cent of our annual imports – for the contract year 2026, to be sourced from the US Gulf Coast – the first structured contract of US LPG for the Indian market,” Puri informed.
This purchase is based on using Mount Belvieu as the benchmark for LPG purchases and “a team of our officials from Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCl had visited the US and engaged in discussions with major US producers over the last few months, which have been concluded now”.
Under the leadership of PM Modi, PSU oil companies have been providing LPG at the lowest global prices to all our mothers and sisters.
“Even as global prices soared by over 60 per cent last year, PM Modi ensured that our Ujjwala consumers continued to receive LPG cylinder at just Rs 500-550 whereas the actual cost of the cylinder was over Rs 1,100,” said the minister,
The Government of India incurred the cost of over Rs 40,000 crore last year “in order to ensure our mothers and sisters did not feel the burden of rising international LPG prices”, he mentioned.
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