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MPC members showed urgency to contain inflation: Emkay Global

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The unanimous 50bps hike in the repo rate recently by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and a sharp upward revision in the inflation forecast, depicted continued urgency on policy catch-up amid the MPC’s reassessment of the inflation outlook, said Emkay Global Financial Services in a report.

The minutes also indicated the rate trajectory ahead.

The RBI released the minutes of the MPC meeting held during June 6-8, 2022 on Wednesday.

According to Emkay Global, the broadening of inflation pressures and generalisation and persistence of inflation made most members uncomfortable, even though some reckoned the largely imported nature of the current inflation.

“Most members believed that, amid fears of second-round effects on estimates, an early hike was necessary to avoid any unintended economic shocks,” Emkay Global said.

The minutes also gave cues on the rate trajectory ahead. While all reckoned rates needed to go up further, there was still divergence on the possible terminal rate, the report said.

Prof Jayant Varma believed that the RBI MPC, like most leading central banks, should also provide a dot plot to signal its future rate projections, which will help in anchoring long-term bond markets and inflation expectations.

Dr Michael Debabrata Patra argued that the repo rate needs to be increased to at least as high as the one-year-ahead inflation forecast suggests (near zero), knowing that monetary policy works with lags.

According to Dr Ashima Goyal, the current stage of recovery, the one-year ahead real rate must not fall below -1 per cent, Emkay Global said.

Some members see a need for demand compression but recommend moving with caution

Emkay Global said there were signs of caution in terms of aggressive policy tightening. Dr. Patra suggested that current inflation is predominantly a supply-side issue, and as a consequence, for monetary policy, rather than materially compressing demand, managing expectations is the key.

Dr Goyal argued that, unlike the West, India’s inflation is yet neither demand-driven nor seeing a wage-price spiral. Labour markets are not tight and wage increases are not universal yet across rural and urban sectors.

Meanwhile, the credit offtake is still modest – broad money growth at 8.8 per cent was much lower than nominal income growth.

Dr Ranjan suggested continued monetary-fiscal coordination to anchor inflation expectations while RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the second-round effect of adverse supply shocks is what they are targeting.

According to Emkay Global, the triple whammy of commodity price shocks, supply-chain shocks and resilient growth has shifted the reaction function in favor of inflation containment.

The inflation prints of the next two quarters are likely to exceed seven per cent, which could pressure the RBI into acting sooner rather than later.

FY23 could, thus, see rates go up further by 75bps plus, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral or higher to quickly reach pre-Covid levels, it said.

As per Emkay Global, a maximum tightening of the policy rate by six per cent by FY23, of which liquidity tightening to two per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) is tantamount to another estimated 25bps effective rate hike.

However, the front-loaded rate hike cycle does not imply a lengthy tightening cycle, and once they reach the supposed neutral pre-Covid monetary conditions, the bar for further tightening may go higher incrementally amid increasing growth inflation trade-offs, Emkay Global said.

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Gold, silver see muted trade amid Iran-US de-escalation hopes

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Mumbai, Gold and silver prices traded on a flat note on Monday amid a rise in crude oil prices and reports of a fresh proposal by Iran to end the conflict with the US, raising hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5 contract) were trading at Rs 1,52,410 per 10 grams, down 0.19 per cent or Rs 290 from the previous close of Rs 1,52,699.

By 11:00 A.M., the yellow metal touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,008, up 0.20 per cent or Rs 309.

Meanwhile, silver futures (May 5 contract) were trading at Rs 2,43,200, down Rs 1,436 or 0.6 per cent.

The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,45,473, up 0.34 per cent or Rs 837 from the previous close, and a low of Rs 2,43,009, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,627.

According to a commodity market expert, precious metals are trading with a cautious bias, with prices largely driven by key technical levels amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

On COMEX, gold is holding above the $4,700–$4,680 support zone, with further downside possible below $4,650, while a sustained move above $4,750–$4,800 could revive momentum towards $4,900, the expert said.

On MCX, gold is hovering near Rs 1,52,500, with resistance seen around Rs 1,54,000 and support at Rs 1,50,000, the expert added.

The analyst also said that silver is also showing a cautious undertone, noting that volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical tensions, keeping the overall outlook range-bound in the near term.

In the international market, both metals were largely flat. On COMEX, gold was trading marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at $4,742 per ounce, while silver was down 0.05 per cent at $76 per ounce.

However, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, although Iran has reportedly proposed a fresh peace initiative to the US aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict.

Amid global uncertainty, gold and silver have delivered strong returns to investors over the past year. Gold has gained over 40 per cent in dollar terms over the past year and more than 18 per cent in six months.

Meanwhile, silver has more than doubled investors’ money over the past year and gained over 60 per cent in the last six months.

Additionally, Brent crude jumped over 2 per cent to $107.77, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced to $96.68, an increase of 2.41 per cent.

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Google to invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic amid global AI race

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New Delhi, April 25: US tech giant Google plans to invest up to $40 billion in the artificial intelligence (AI) firm Anthropic, as global technology giants accelerate their push into advanced AI models and infrastructure.

The proposed investment includes an initial $10 billion infusion at Anthropic’s latest valuation of $380 billion, with the remaining $30 billion tied to performance-based milestones, the companies confirmed, according to multiple reports.

The move has built on a multi-year partnership between the two firms, under which Google provides cloud infrastructure and access to Anthropic’s AI models, including its Claude suite.

Moreover, Anthropic also leverages Google’s custom tensor processing units (TPUs) as an alternative to widely used graphics processing units.

The latest agreement between the tech firms came amid surging demand for generative AI tools across enterprises, developers and consumers, which has placed increasing pressure on computing infrastructure.

Notably, Anthropic recently secured 5 gigawatts of compute capacity through collaborations involving Google and Broadcom, with additional expansion planned.

However, despite their collaboration, the companies remain competitors in the AI space, with Google’s Gemini models vying against Anthropic’s offerings in the rapidly evolving market.

Additionally, Google has been steadily increasing its stake in Anthropic since 2023, when it first invested $300 million for roughly a 10 per cent holding. Subsequent funding rounds pushed its total investment beyond $3 billion, with reports suggesting a stake of about 14 per cent prior to the latest deal.

The investment has underscored intensifying competition among major technology firms, which are committing tens of billions of dollars to leading AI labs such as Anthropic and rivals, including OpenAI.

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers and has seen rapid growth in adoption of its AI products, particularly its Claude models, with annualised revenue crossing $30 billion.

The deal has followed a similar arrangement with Amazon, which recently invested $5 billion in Anthropic and committed up to $20 billion more, linked to specific commercial milestones.

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India, New Zealand set to sign FTA for improved market access on April 27

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New Delhi, April 24: As India and New Zealand prepare to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Monday, both sides are expected to benefit from expanded trade ties and improved market access, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has said.

Taking to the social media platform X, Luxon said, “We will sign a Free Trade Agreement with India on Monday.”

In a video message, Luxon said the agreement would improve market access for New Zealand exporters, particularly manufacturers of marine jet systems used in boats and exported to over 70 countries.

He added that the deal would help reduce trade barriers and strengthen commercial engagement between the two countries.

He also noted that certain exporters currently face tariffs while accessing the Indian market, and said the agreement would gradually ease such duties, improving competitiveness and supporting higher trade flows.

Luxon said the FTA would support increased business activity, employment opportunities and economic growth in New Zealand, while also strengthening bilateral trade linkages with India.

He added that the agreement would bring ‘more jobs, higher wages and more opportunities,’ highlighting the broader economic impact of the deal.

Once signed, the FTA is expected to expand trade and investment ties between the two countries and enhance export opportunities on both sides in a large and growing global market environment.

Earlier this month, legal verification of the New Zealand-India FTA was completed, with both countries agreeing to sign the pact on April 27 in the presence of a large contingent of business representatives, New Zealand Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said.

In a statement, McClay described the agreement as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity,” saying it would strengthen bilateral trade relations and provide improved access to each other’s markets.

He said that amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, strengthening trade partnerships remains important for long-term economic stability.

McClay added that signing the FTA would allow New Zealand to formally initiate parliamentary treaty examination, enabling public scrutiny of the agreement.

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