Business
MPC members showed urgency to contain inflation: Emkay Global
The unanimous 50bps hike in the repo rate recently by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and a sharp upward revision in the inflation forecast, depicted continued urgency on policy catch-up amid the MPC’s reassessment of the inflation outlook, said Emkay Global Financial Services in a report.
The minutes also indicated the rate trajectory ahead.
The RBI released the minutes of the MPC meeting held during June 6-8, 2022 on Wednesday.
According to Emkay Global, the broadening of inflation pressures and generalisation and persistence of inflation made most members uncomfortable, even though some reckoned the largely imported nature of the current inflation.
“Most members believed that, amid fears of second-round effects on estimates, an early hike was necessary to avoid any unintended economic shocks,” Emkay Global said.
The minutes also gave cues on the rate trajectory ahead. While all reckoned rates needed to go up further, there was still divergence on the possible terminal rate, the report said.
Prof Jayant Varma believed that the RBI MPC, like most leading central banks, should also provide a dot plot to signal its future rate projections, which will help in anchoring long-term bond markets and inflation expectations.
Dr Michael Debabrata Patra argued that the repo rate needs to be increased to at least as high as the one-year-ahead inflation forecast suggests (near zero), knowing that monetary policy works with lags.
According to Dr Ashima Goyal, the current stage of recovery, the one-year ahead real rate must not fall below -1 per cent, Emkay Global said.
Some members see a need for demand compression but recommend moving with caution
Emkay Global said there were signs of caution in terms of aggressive policy tightening. Dr. Patra suggested that current inflation is predominantly a supply-side issue, and as a consequence, for monetary policy, rather than materially compressing demand, managing expectations is the key.
Dr Goyal argued that, unlike the West, India’s inflation is yet neither demand-driven nor seeing a wage-price spiral. Labour markets are not tight and wage increases are not universal yet across rural and urban sectors.
Meanwhile, the credit offtake is still modest – broad money growth at 8.8 per cent was much lower than nominal income growth.
Dr Ranjan suggested continued monetary-fiscal coordination to anchor inflation expectations while RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the second-round effect of adverse supply shocks is what they are targeting.
According to Emkay Global, the triple whammy of commodity price shocks, supply-chain shocks and resilient growth has shifted the reaction function in favor of inflation containment.
The inflation prints of the next two quarters are likely to exceed seven per cent, which could pressure the RBI into acting sooner rather than later.
FY23 could, thus, see rates go up further by 75bps plus, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral or higher to quickly reach pre-Covid levels, it said.
As per Emkay Global, a maximum tightening of the policy rate by six per cent by FY23, of which liquidity tightening to two per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) is tantamount to another estimated 25bps effective rate hike.
However, the front-loaded rate hike cycle does not imply a lengthy tightening cycle, and once they reach the supposed neutral pre-Covid monetary conditions, the bar for further tightening may go higher incrementally amid increasing growth inflation trade-offs, Emkay Global said.
Business
Gold, silver rise up to 2 pc amid softer dollar and easing crude prices

Mumbai, May 25: Gold and silver prices traded higher on Monday, rising up to nearly 2 per cent, supported by a weaker US dollar and softer crude oil prices as investors assessed prospects of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5) were trading 0.36 per cent or Rs 566 higher at Rs 1,59,245 at 10:48 am.
The yellow metal touched an intraday high of Rs 1,59,500, up 0.51 per cent or Rs 821 from the previous close of Rs 1,58,679. It recorded an intraday low of Rs 1,59,014, reflecting a gain of 0.21 per cent or Rs 335.
Meanwhile, silver futures (July 3) traded higher, surging nearly 2 per cent or Rs 5,400 to hit an intraday high of Rs 2,77,245 so far.
At the last count, the white metal was trading at Rs 2,76,427, up 1.7 per cent or Rs 4,581. It recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,75,428, still higher by 1.31 per cent or Rs 3,582.
Silver and gold had earlier opened at Rs 2,76,683 and Rs 1,59,150, respectively, on the commodity exchange.
According to commodity market experts, MCX gold continued to trade above the Rs 1,59,000 mark with a cautious-to-mildly positive bias.
“Immediate resistance is seen in the Rs 1,59,500-Rs 1,60,000 range, while a sustained breakout could push prices towards Rs 1,61,000. On the downside, support is placed around the Rs 1,58,000-Rs 1,57,500 levels,” they said.
They further said that MCX silver was also holding firm above the Rs 2,76,000 mark amid ongoing volatility, adding that a sustained move above Rs 2,77,000 may support further recovery towards the Rs 2,79,000-Rs 2,80,000 zone, while support is seen near Rs 2,73,000.
“Safe-haven demand and geopolitical developments continue to influence the direction of precious metals,” the experts noted.
In the international market too, precious metals traded higher, with COMEX gold rising 0.75 per cent to $4,557.30 per ounce. COMEX silver was trading over 2 per cent higher at $78.015.
In addition, global crude oil prices declined sharply, with international benchmark Brent crude falling 6 per cent to $97.16 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude tanked more than 6 per cent to $90.33.
Business
‘Shagun Ka 111’: Sena UBT’s Priyanka Chaturvedi Slams Fresh Fuel Price Hike As Petrol Crosses ₹111 In Mumbai

Mumbai: Shiv Sena UBT leader Priyanka Chaturvedi on Monday launched a sharp attack on the Centre after petrol prices in Mumbai crossed ₹111 per litre following yet another fuel price hike, the fourth increase in less than two weeks.
Taking a swipe at the soaring rates, Chaturvedi said Mumbai’s petrol prices had now reached the ‘shagun’ figure of Rs 111 and warned that diesel prices in metro cities could soon touch Rs 100 per litre if the current trend continues.
“In Mumbai Petrol price has reached shagun ka 111 number. Diesel reaching 100 in metros in the next price hike… which is likely in the next 24 hours,” Chaturvedi wrote in a post on X.
Her remarks came shortly after state-owned oil companies announced another steep revision in fuel prices amid rising global crude oil rates and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
Today’s revision saw petrol prices rise by Rs 2.61 per litre and diesel by Rs 2.71, taking the cumulative increase since May 15 to nearly Rs 7.5 per litre. With the latest hike, petrol in Mumbai now costs Rs 111.21 per litre, while diesel has climbed to Rs 97.83 per litre, among the highest retail fuel prices in the country.
The latest fuel surge follows earlier hikes on May 15, May 19 and May 23 after oil companies resumed revisions following a prolonged freeze in retail prices. The repeated hikes are expected to significantly impact Mumbai’s daily commuters, cab and auto-rickshaw drivers, transport operators, delivery services and businesses already struggling with rising operational costs.
Officials have attributed the increases to rising international crude oil prices, disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict.
The sharp rise in fuel prices has also intensified political attacks from Opposition parties, who have accused the government of burdening citizens with back-to-back hikes at a time of rising inflation and household expenses.
Business
Nifty, Sensex post notable gains this week over easing crude prices, US-Iran talks

Mumbai, May 23: Indian equity benchmarks posted notable gains during the week as sentiments improved over easing crude oil prices and reports of indirect US–Iran talks.
Nifty gained 0.32 per cent during the week and added 0.27 per cent on the last trading day to reach 23,719. At close, Sensex was up 231 points or 0.31 per cent at 75,415. It advanced 0.24 per cent during the week.
“Despite the rebound, investors largely remained cautious, with limited conviction at higher levels continuing to cap upside momentum,” an analyst said.
The IT sector stood out as a clear outperformer, benefiting from attractive valuations following the recent correction.
Realty, cement, and private banks also held up while FMCG and consumer durables underperformed as concerns of WPI pass-through weighed on margins.
Midcap indices outperformed benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 added 1.36 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 gained 0.41 per cent during the week.
The rupee found much-needed support as crude prices exhibited a modest pullback over persistent efforts to ease Middle East tensions.
However, fears of tightening monetary policy amidst expectations of higher input inflation provided an upward push for domestic bond yields, analysts said.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 during the week, reflecting growing concerns around sticky inflation, elevated energy prices and rising macroeconomic uncertainty.
It reinforced concerns that higher-for-longer interest rates could continue to pressure global liquidity conditions and risk assets.
Nifty 50 is expected to see the 23,800–24,000 region as a strong resistance zone and the 23,400–23,300 region remains a crucial support area, market participants said.
In Bank Nifty, immediate resistance is placed around the 54,200 level and the 53,600–53,500 region continues to act as an immediate support zone.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) largely remained net sellers, with cumulative outflows at around Rs 7,570 crore, a market participant said.
Investors remain keen on cues from India’s April IIP print, which will offer clues on whether recent manufacturing softness is a passing or persistent concern.
The RBI’s June policy decision and the US core PCE data are also key triggers for the market. A higher PCE print would push back expectations of US Fed rate cuts, limiting the prospect of meaningful FII inflows into emerging markets.
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