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MPC members showed urgency to contain inflation: Emkay Global

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The unanimous 50bps hike in the repo rate recently by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and a sharp upward revision in the inflation forecast, depicted continued urgency on policy catch-up amid the MPC’s reassessment of the inflation outlook, said Emkay Global Financial Services in a report.

The minutes also indicated the rate trajectory ahead.

The RBI released the minutes of the MPC meeting held during June 6-8, 2022 on Wednesday.

According to Emkay Global, the broadening of inflation pressures and generalisation and persistence of inflation made most members uncomfortable, even though some reckoned the largely imported nature of the current inflation.

“Most members believed that, amid fears of second-round effects on estimates, an early hike was necessary to avoid any unintended economic shocks,” Emkay Global said.

The minutes also gave cues on the rate trajectory ahead. While all reckoned rates needed to go up further, there was still divergence on the possible terminal rate, the report said.

Prof Jayant Varma believed that the RBI MPC, like most leading central banks, should also provide a dot plot to signal its future rate projections, which will help in anchoring long-term bond markets and inflation expectations.

Dr Michael Debabrata Patra argued that the repo rate needs to be increased to at least as high as the one-year-ahead inflation forecast suggests (near zero), knowing that monetary policy works with lags.

According to Dr Ashima Goyal, the current stage of recovery, the one-year ahead real rate must not fall below -1 per cent, Emkay Global said.

Some members see a need for demand compression but recommend moving with caution

Emkay Global said there were signs of caution in terms of aggressive policy tightening. Dr. Patra suggested that current inflation is predominantly a supply-side issue, and as a consequence, for monetary policy, rather than materially compressing demand, managing expectations is the key.

Dr Goyal argued that, unlike the West, India’s inflation is yet neither demand-driven nor seeing a wage-price spiral. Labour markets are not tight and wage increases are not universal yet across rural and urban sectors.

Meanwhile, the credit offtake is still modest – broad money growth at 8.8 per cent was much lower than nominal income growth.

Dr Ranjan suggested continued monetary-fiscal coordination to anchor inflation expectations while RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the second-round effect of adverse supply shocks is what they are targeting.

According to Emkay Global, the triple whammy of commodity price shocks, supply-chain shocks and resilient growth has shifted the reaction function in favor of inflation containment.

The inflation prints of the next two quarters are likely to exceed seven per cent, which could pressure the RBI into acting sooner rather than later.

FY23 could, thus, see rates go up further by 75bps plus, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral or higher to quickly reach pre-Covid levels, it said.

As per Emkay Global, a maximum tightening of the policy rate by six per cent by FY23, of which liquidity tightening to two per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) is tantamount to another estimated 25bps effective rate hike.

However, the front-loaded rate hike cycle does not imply a lengthy tightening cycle, and once they reach the supposed neutral pre-Covid monetary conditions, the bar for further tightening may go higher incrementally amid increasing growth inflation trade-offs, Emkay Global said.

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India now acts as a solution contributor rather than a solution consumer: PM Modi

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Nice/New Delhi, June 14: India has transformed from being a consumer of global solutions to a contributor of solutions for the world, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Sunday.

Speaking after inaugurating the ‘Bharat Innovates 2026’ event in Nice, France, PM Modi said India’s innovation ecosystem is rapidly expanding and increasingly playing a role in addressing global challenges through technology and entrepreneurship.

“India now acts as a solution contributor rather than a solution consumer,” the Prime Minister said.

The Prime Minister further stated that India is innovating at both speed and scale, with a focus on creating sustainable solutions that benefit not only its own citizens but also the global community.

“Bharat innovates with speed and scale. Bharat innovates for a sustainable future. Bharat innovates for the whole world,” PM Modi said while addressing the innovation-focused event, jointly inaugurated with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Emphasising India’s approach towards technological development, the Prime Minister said the country’s priority is “technology for humanity” and human-centric innovation.

He added that innovation is deeply embedded in India’s culture and way of thinking. “Innovation is in India’s DNA,” Prime Minister Modi explained.

The Prime Minister also praised the growing partnership between India and France, describing it as a relationship rooted in shared values, mutual trust and common interests.

He noted that cooperation between the two countries spans a wide range of sectors, from security and strategic affairs to sustainability and innovation.

“India-France partnership covers security to sustainability,” PM Modi said.

Macron, who shared the stage with PM Modi at the event, described the Prime Minister’s presence at ‘Bharat Innovates’ as a matter of great honour for France.

He also congratulated PM Modi on completing 12 years as India’s leader and praised his role in strengthening ties between the two countries.

The ‘Bharat Innovates’ event has brought together leading startups, venture capital funds, innovators and technology leaders from India, France and several other countries.

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Year after year, India is fastest growing economy: FM Sitharaman

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Bengaluru, June 14: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday said that while Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was repeatedly criticising the country’s economic performance, “on the contrary, quarter after quarter, year after year India has been the fastest growing economy”.

Addressing the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) ‘Viksit Bharat’ event here, Union Minister Sitharaman noted that it is not the Central government, which is claiming that India is the fastest-growing economy, but the GDP numbers were indicative of this.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also said India was the world’s fastest growing major economy, she said.

She also added that the Lok Sabha Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi keeps saying that there is a big disaster awaiting, but there is none awaiting India.

The Union Minister said that repeated criticism by the Congress leader could create a false perception among citizens about the country’s economic condition.

“The Leader of the Opposition (Rahul Gandhi) and his party try to make people believe that India is in trouble. Yet even amidst crises in West Asia and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, India continues to move forward,” Union Minister Sitharaman remarked.

Commenting on the impact of geopolitical tensions on fuel supplies and global trade, she said the challenges extended beyond fluctuations in crude oil and LPG prices.

“These challenges affect not only crude oil prices and LPG prices but global shipping as well. Shipping companies hesitate to send vessels through conflict zones. Insurance premiums increase because ships risk being attacked. Whether a vessel is empty or carrying crude oil, insurance costs rise significantly, and those costs ultimately have to be paid to ensure supplies reach the country,” she noted.

“Despite these global headwinds, the Narendra Modi government has ensured uninterrupted supplies of petroleum products,” she said.

Union Minister Sitharaman said the BJP’s 12-year journey under Prime Minister Modi was marked by both development and welfare.

She highlighted the reduction in multidimensional poverty, expansion of tap water connections, sanitation coverage, free LPG connections and food security programmes as the achievements of the Narendra Modi-led Union government.

“Twenty-five crore Indians have come out of multidimensional poverty. Extreme poverty has declined from 29.17 per cent in 2013-14 to about 11.28 per cent. Twelve crore household toilets have been built under rural sanitation programmes, achieving near-universal coverage,” the Union Finance Minister said.

She added that the government benefits were directly reaching the poor through the digital public infrastructure ecosystem built around the JAM trinity — Jan Dhan accounts, Aadhaar and mobile connectivity.

Union Minister Sitharaman said that India now has 58 crore Jan Dhan accounts, 144 crore Aadhaar identities and 125 crore mobile connections while UPI had become a global model for digital transactions.

She also rejected the Congress’ claims that the Centre had neglected Karnataka and cited tax devolution, grants and infrastructure investments to back her argument.

Union Minister Sitharaman said, “The Karnataka government frequently claims that the Centre is not giving the state its due share. Let us look at the facts. Tax devolution to Karnataka between 2014 and 2026 amounted to about Rs four lakh crore — five times more than the Rs 82,000 crore received in the comparable pre-2014 period.”

“Grants-in-aid to Karnataka between 2014 and 2026 stood at about Rs 2.71 lakh crore and that the state had also received more than Rs 18,000 crore under the Centre’s 50-year interest-free loan scheme,” the Union Finance Minister added.

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PM Modi meets global investors ahead of Bharat Innovates Summit in France

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Nice/New Delhi, June 14: Ahead of the inauguration of the Bharat Innovates Summit in Nice, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday interacted with select investors and venture capital leaders from India, France and several other countries.

The innovation-focused summit is set to be jointly launched by Prime Minister Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron.

The event will bring together leading startups, investors, entrepreneurs and technology stakeholders to explore opportunities for collaboration, investment and innovation-driven partnerships between India, France and the wider global ecosystem.

The interaction with investors comes as India and France seek to deepen cooperation in emerging technologies, innovation and entrepreneurship under their Special Global Strategic Partnership.

The Bharat Innovates Summit is expected to serve as a key platform for fostering cross-border investment and strengthening ties between startup ecosystems in the two countries.

Prime Minister Modi and President Macron are also expected to hold bilateral talks in Nice, where they will review the entire spectrum of India-France relations.

Discussions are likely to focus on innovation, technology, trade, defence cooperation and broader strategic issues, reflecting the expanding scope of engagement between the two nations.

PM Modi’s visit to France, which runs from June 13 to June 18, will cover three key cities — Nice, Evian and Paris.

Meanwhile, shortly after arriving in France, PM Modi shared glimpses of his interaction with members of the Indian community in Nice.

“A memorable welcome from the Indian community of Nice. Although they are several kilometers from their country, the bond of our diaspora with India remains stronger than ever,” Prime Minister Modi wrote on social media platform X.

Prior to that, upon arriving in Nice, the Prime Minister had shared details of his France visit in a post on X, saying that his engagements would span Nice, Evian and Paris.

“I have just landed in Nice. Beyond Nice, this visit to France includes programs in Evian and Paris,” PM Modi stated.

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