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India’s real GDP growth for FY23 seen at 7.5%, says SBI Research

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India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in FY23 is expected to be at 7.5 per cent, said SBI Research in a report.

“Given the high inflation and the subsequent upcoming rate hikes, we believe that real GDP will incrementally increase by Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY23,” the report said.

For FY23 also, as inflation remains elevated in the first half, the report said the projection is that nominal GDP will grow by 16.1 per cent.

The report mentioned some of the factors that will impact the GDP growth for FY23.In FY22, around 2000 Corporates in listed space reported 29 per cent growth in top line and 52 per cent growth in profit after tax, besides sector-wise data for April Indicated that credit off-take had happened in almost all sectors.

“Personal loans segment continued to perform well, registering acceleration in growth to 14.7 per cent in April 2022 and contributed around 90 per cent of the incremental credit during the month, primarily driven by ‘Housing’, ‘Vehicle Loans’ and ‘Other Personal Loans’ segments. Customers, especially in retail verticals could be having a feel of future run expected in interest rates, and might be front loading their purchases in days to come, giving a fillip to consumer demands in select niche areas.”

Further, SBI Research said it expects central bank RBI to be supportive of growth and hike repo rates gradually, but mostly front load it in June and August policy review meetings.

It expects a 50 basis point repo rate hike and 25 basis point cash reserve ratio rate hike in forthcoming June policy meet. RBI is likely to raise the repo rate cumulatively by 125-150 basis points over the pandemic level of 4 per cent. RBI might also increase the cash reserve ratio rate cumulatively by another 50 basis points, after raising it by 50 basis points in the last monetary policy meet.

Lastly, the report said it was keenly watching the uncertainties regarding the crude oil prices. “At $120 per barrel, it still poses significant uncertainties regarding inflation trajectory. We, however, now believe that inflation will average 6.5-6.7 per cent in FY23 on the back of excise rate cuts by the government. Independent forecasts reveal that oil prices could climb further before declining, but it might still hold up at current levels for a longer period of time.”

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Maharashtra on path to becoming GCC hub: CM Fadnavis

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Nagpur, Dec 12: Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Friday announced that a crucial milestone has been achieved in the journey to establish Maharashtra as a GCC (Global Capability Centre) Hub.

He said that the Brookfield company is set to build Asia’s largest Global Capability Centre (GCC) in Mumbai, spanning approximately 2 million square feet.

The Chief Minister said that this project is expected to generate a total of 45,000 jobs, including 15,000 direct and 30,000 indirect jobs.

He stated that due to the state’s talent pool, infrastructure, and industry-friendly environment, Maharashtra is becoming a preferred destination for Global Capability Centres.

“The new GCC policy will lead to large-scale skill-based job creation and economic growth,” he added.

He also mentioned that FedEx, a global leader in the logistics sector, is keen to invest in its GCC and other operations near the Mumbai-Navi Mumbai airport area, said the government release.

The Chief Minister informed that he requested Microsoft to consider Maharashtra for their investments, noting that their largest existing investment is already in the state.

He expressed confidence that Microsoft will make a major investment in the future and take the lead in making Maharashtra an Artificial Intelligence (AI) centre.

The Chief Minister said that Maharashtra’s model for crime control with the help of Artificial Intelligence is a guiding light for the entire country.

Chief Minister Fadnavis confirmed that Microsoft has assured priority to Maharashtra in their largest ever investment in India, amounting to $17 billion.

He further highlighted the ‘Marble’ platform developed by Maharashtra, which helps detect cyber and financial crimes in just 24 hours instead of 3-4 months.

He said that this has resulted in saving people’s money and has expedited the process of tracking criminals.

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India’s CPI inflation estimated at 0.71 pc for Nov, food inflation stays in negative zone

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New Delhi, Dec 12: India’s year-on-year inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was estimated at 0.71 per cent for November this year which was marginally higher than the 0.25 per cent in October, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Friday.

Food inflation stayed in the negative zone during November at (-) 3.91 per cent as prices of food goods fell compared to the same month of the previous year. Food inflation has now stayed negative for the sixth month in a row, easing the burden on household budgets.

However, the increase in headline inflation during November 2025 is mainly attributed to an increase in the inflation of vegetables, eggs, meat and fish, spices, and fuels compared to October, according to an official statement.

The retail inflation had eased further in October, after having plummeted to an over 8-year low of 1.54 per cent in September, as prices of food items and goods across sectors fell during the month.

The declining trend in food prices continued in October as food inflation fell deeper in the negative zone at (-) 5.02 per cent from (-) 2.28 per cent in September.

However, the overall outlook for inflation remains benign.

The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) last week slashed its forecast for India’s inflation rate for the financial year 2025-26 to 2 per cent from 2.6 per cent predicted in October due to the sharp decline in food prices and the GST rate cuts playing out.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced a reduction in the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier, as inflation had come down and the monetary policy could focus on boosting growth.

Malhotra said that the surge in economic growth to 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year and the sharp decline in inflation to 1.7 per cent had provided a rare “Goldilocks period” for the Indian economy.

“The MPC noted that headline inflation has eased significantly and is likely to be softer than the earlier projections, primarily on account of the exceptionally benign food prices. Reflecting these favourable conditions, the projections for average headline inflation in 2025-26 and Q1:2026-27 have been further revised downwards.”

Malhotra also pointed out that core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) remained largely contained in September-October, despite continued price pressures exerted by precious metals. Excluding gold, core inflation moderated to 2.6 per cent in October. Overall, the decline in inflation has become more generalised, he added.

The RBI Governor observed that food supply prospects have improved on the back of higher kharif production, healthy rabi sowing, adequate reservoir levels and conducive soil moisture. Barring some metals, international commodity prices are likely to moderate going forward.

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Sensex, Nifty extend gains as metal stocks rally

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Mumbai, Dec 12: Indian stock markets gained for the second straight session on Friday, supported by a strong global rally and heavy buying in metal stocks.

Sentiment also improved after Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with US President Donald Trump on Thursday to discuss strengthening economic ties, as both countries continue working toward a trade agreement.

At the closing bell, the Sensex had risen 449.53 points, or 0.53 per cent, to 85,267.66.

The Nifty also moved higher, adding 148.40 points, or 0.57 per cent, to trade at 26,046.95.

“In the near term, the trend is likely to remain constructive as long as the index holds above 25,900, which is expected to serve as a key support level,” experts said.

“On the higher side, the index may move towards 26,300 in the short term,” they added.

Several major stocks led the gains on the Nifty, including Tata Steel, Eternal, UltraTech Cement, L&T, Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance.

However, some stocks came under pressure due to profit booking. HUL, Sun Pharma, Asian Paints, ITC, Power Grid and HCL Tech were among the top losers.

In the broader markets, the Nifty MidCap index rose 1.18 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index advanced 0.94 per cent.

Sector-wise, the Nifty Metal index led the rally with a jump of 2.63 per cent, followed by realty, consumer durables and oil and gas. The FMCG and media sectors slipped into the red.

Meanwhile, silver prices in India continued their sharp upward trend. Silver futures crossed the historic Rs 2 lakh per kg mark for the first time on Friday, extending a rally that has pushed the metal up nearly 130 per cent so far this year.

Experts said that the combined boost from global cues, strong sectoral performance and improving geopolitical engagement helped the markets end the week on a positive note.

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