Business
India’s real GDP growth for FY23 seen at 7.5%, says SBI Research
India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in FY23 is expected to be at 7.5 per cent, said SBI Research in a report.
“Given the high inflation and the subsequent upcoming rate hikes, we believe that real GDP will incrementally increase by Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY23,” the report said.
For FY23 also, as inflation remains elevated in the first half, the report said the projection is that nominal GDP will grow by 16.1 per cent.
The report mentioned some of the factors that will impact the GDP growth for FY23.In FY22, around 2000 Corporates in listed space reported 29 per cent growth in top line and 52 per cent growth in profit after tax, besides sector-wise data for April Indicated that credit off-take had happened in almost all sectors.
“Personal loans segment continued to perform well, registering acceleration in growth to 14.7 per cent in April 2022 and contributed around 90 per cent of the incremental credit during the month, primarily driven by ‘Housing’, ‘Vehicle Loans’ and ‘Other Personal Loans’ segments. Customers, especially in retail verticals could be having a feel of future run expected in interest rates, and might be front loading their purchases in days to come, giving a fillip to consumer demands in select niche areas.”
Further, SBI Research said it expects central bank RBI to be supportive of growth and hike repo rates gradually, but mostly front load it in June and August policy review meetings.
It expects a 50 basis point repo rate hike and 25 basis point cash reserve ratio rate hike in forthcoming June policy meet. RBI is likely to raise the repo rate cumulatively by 125-150 basis points over the pandemic level of 4 per cent. RBI might also increase the cash reserve ratio rate cumulatively by another 50 basis points, after raising it by 50 basis points in the last monetary policy meet.
Lastly, the report said it was keenly watching the uncertainties regarding the crude oil prices. “At $120 per barrel, it still poses significant uncertainties regarding inflation trajectory. We, however, now believe that inflation will average 6.5-6.7 per cent in FY23 on the back of excise rate cuts by the government. Independent forecasts reveal that oil prices could climb further before declining, but it might still hold up at current levels for a longer period of time.”
Business
Nifty surges over 1 pc this week led by bank, auto stocks

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Mumbai, Jan 3: The Indian equity benchmarks closed on a strong note this week, touching fresh all-time highs amid strong performance in the banking and auto sectors.
Nifty surged 1.05 per cent during the week and 0.70 per cent on the last trading day to 26,328. At close, Sensex was up 760 points or 0.67 per cent at 85,762. It surged 0.89 per cent during the week.
Bank Nifty also continued its outperformance and scaled fresh record highs above the 60,200 mark.
The Indian equities traded in a cautious tone till New Year, weighed down by persistent FII outflows and heightened global uncertainties. On New Year, the indices ended on a flat note, and on the last day of trading week, they touched fresh all-time highs.
Strong momentum was observed in the auto and PSU banking sectors, while sectoral rotation was evident in utilities as they gained traction on hopes of rising demand and increased industrial activity. Robust December auto sales indicate a broader uptick in economic activity during the festive-driven quarter.
Improving asset quality and expectations of accelerated credit growth drew investor interest toward PSU banking stocks, analysts said.
Conversely, FMCG index dipped 4 per cent for the week after the government announced a higher excise duty on cigarettes.
Broader indices outperformed benchmark indices for the week, with the Nifty Midcap100 up 1.74 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 edged up 0.77 per cent.
Precious metals continued their momentum, as trade disparity, supply constraints, geo-political tension, rate cut view and FII outflows continue to test the near-term risk appetite of investors.
According to analysts, a sustained hold by Nifty above 26,300 could accelerate the rally toward 26,500, with an extended upside potential toward 26,700 on strong follow-through. Bank Nifty is likely to continue outperforming the Nifty index in the near term, they added.
Key cues for investors going forward include US payroll and unemployment data for global market direction. Markets may move within a steady range as participants wait for clearer earnings‑led triggers and clarity on the India-US trade deal, market watchers said.
Business
New labour codes bring on board gig workers with 90-day employment

New Delhi, Jan 2: The Ministry of Labour and Employment has published the draft rules for the four labour codes, which also bring gig workers on board for various benefits such as minimum wage, health, occupational safety, and social security coverage.
The government has invited feedback from stakeholders on these draft rules and aims to finally roll out the entire package of four labour codes across the country from April 1.
Under the draft rules, in order to be eligible for the benefits, a gig or platform worker must be associated with an aggregator for at least 90 days in a financial year to qualify for social security benefits created by the Centre. If a worker is engaged with more than one aggregator, the minimum requirement is fixed at 120 days.
The notification, dated December 30, 2025, was issued a day before the gig and platform workers went on a flash strike for higher wages and better working conditions.
The rules clarify that a worker is considered “engaged” on any calendar day if they earn income for work done for an aggregator, regardless of how much they earn.
If a worker is associated with multiple aggregators, the number of engagement days will be added together across all aggregators. The draft also states that if a worker is engaged with three aggregators on the same calendar day, it will be counted as three separate days of engagement.
Regarding the minimum wage, the draft rules state that when the rate of wages for a day is fixed, then such amount shall be divided by eight for fixing the rate of wages for an hour and multiplied by twenty-six for fixing the rate of wages for a month. In case of a five-day working week, the hourly rate of minimum wages so calculated shall be used to derive the minimum wages for the day.
While fixing the minimum rates of wages, the Central government shall take into account the geographical area, experience in the area of employment, and level of skill required for working under the categories of unskilled, semiskilled, skilled, and highly skilled, the rules further state.
The four codes — the Code on Wages, 2019; the Industrial Relations Code, 2020; the Code on Social Security, 2020; and the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2020 — were notified on the same day.
The Labour Codes make it mandatory for employers to issue appointment letters to all workers, which provides written proof to ensure transparency, job security, and fixed employment. Earlier, no mandatory appointment letters were required.
Under the Code on Social Security, 2020, all workers, including gig and platform workers, will get social security coverage. All workers will get PF, ESIC, insurance, and other social security benefits. Earlier, there was only limited security coverage.
Under the Code on Wages, 2019, all workers will receive a statutory minimum wage payment, and timely payment will ensure financial security. Earlier, minimum wages applied only to scheduled industries or employments and large sections of workers remained uncovered.
Business
FAIFA urges government to roll back steep tax hike on tobacco products

New Delhi, Jan 2: The Federation of All India Farmer Associations (FAIFA) on Friday urged the government to roll back the notified excise rates on tobacco products and revise them to revenue-neutral rates, to disincentivise smuggling, and support domestic agriculture.
A stable taxation framework, FAIFA noted in a statement, is necessary to sustain farmer incomes, protect employment across the value chain, and align economic policy with long-term public health goals.
The Ministry of Finance notification ‘Chewing Tobacco, Jarda Scented Tobacco and Gutkha Packing Machines (Capacity Determination and Collection of Duty) Rules, 2026’ has imposed an excise duty of Rs 2,050-Rs 8,500 per 1,000 sticks, depending on cigarette length, effective February 1.
FAIFA said such a steep hike in taxes would force domestic manufacturers to raise prices of finished goods, which will lead to a drop in sales, hurting farmers supplies in return. This could cause a glut in the tobacco crop market in the near term, it added.
“While announcing GST 2.0 on September 4, 2025, Government had assured that in the case of tobacco products, GST would be charged at 40 per cent of the retail sales price, while the overall incidence of tax would be kept unchanged,” said Murali Babu, President, FAIFA.
He further added that the farming community across India has been holding on to this assurance of revenue neutrality and had welcomed the government’s decision to rationalise GST by restructuring rates and doing away with the 12 per cent slab, which helped reduce prices.
Appealing to the government, FAIFA leaders stressed that India’s legal cigarette prices are already among the least affordable globally when measured against per capita income, as reflected in World Health Organization’s (WHO) affordability index.
Current steep increase will render legal products unaffordable to a huge section of consumers, accelerating consumer migration to illegal channels, it argued. FAIFA appealed to the government to ensure that taxation policies do not punish those who have always remained within the law.
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