Business
`India on the verge of capex recovery’
India is on the verge of a new capital expenditure cycle recovery with the central government spending big on infrastructure, said Prabhudas Lilladhar, a financial services player.
In its latest report, Prabhudas Lilladher said there will be a big capex cycle recovery in India in the coming few years as the private sector capex is showing signs of revival.
Even though the Central government is spending big on infrastructure, there has not been industry led capex cycle, the report added.
According to Prabhudas Lilladher, the FY23 budget has increased the capex plans of the Centre by 10.6 per cent to Rs 12.2 trillion.
The National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) worth Rs 11,000 billion and resolve to provide amenities like roads, drinking water and housing will keep the Centre’s capex high.
The productivity linked incentive (PLI) worth Rs 2,000 billion across 14 sectors and benefits from China plus one in Specialty chemicals, Textiles and others will revive capex, the report added.
Similarly capex by the steel, cement, textiles, oil and gas and other sectors will push the capex higher.
According to the report, a strong demand in 2Q of the current fiscal is expected given early Diwali and sustained pent upAdemand from urban middle class in discretionary segments.
3Q will benefit from improvement in margins given that cost pressures are abating as most Agri commodities (led by Palm Oil) have corrected to March levels and crude has softened from recent highs by 30-40 per cent.
In addition, prices of steel, aluminium, copper and others have seen corrections of 52 per cent, 38 per cent and 25 per cent from the peak.
Global supply chain seems to be in better shape and semiconductor shortage appears to be ebbing now.
“We expect strong growth in corporate profitability in 2Q and 3Q which would support markets. Any revival of rural demand would be an icing on the cake,” Prabhudas Lilladher report notes.
However, the rural demand has failed to pick up so far despite strong prices as higher costs for inputs, deficient rains in large states and a volatile environment is impacting the sentiments.
Decline in acreage in key crops like paddy and oilseeds can impact food inflation in coming quarters.
Festival demand from urban middle class is expected to remain strong, which will enable good 2Q and 3Q will show benefits of correction in commodities.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open marginally lower amid mixed global cues

Mumbai, Sep 19: The Indian benchmark indices opened marginally lower on Friday, with IT stocks leading the losses in early trade.
As of 9.26 am, Sensex was down 241 points or 0.29 per cent at 82,772 and Nifty was down 63 points or 0.25 per cent at 25,360.
The US Federal Reserve resumed interest rates cut cycle by reducing rates by 25 basis points but the outlook on further easing in the months ahead failed to meet the investors’ dovish expectations, while markets awaited more cues into US policy path, according to analysts.
Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.16 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 lost 0.04 per cent.
Hero MotoCorp, Shriram Finance, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, Tech Mahindra were among major gainers on Nifty, while losers were ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer and Titan Company.
Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT, the top loser, lost 0.40 per cent. Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private bank also weighed down on the indices. Except Nifty Realty and PSU Bank all other sectoral indices were trading in the red or with marginal gains.
The Nifty50 held firmly above the 25,400 mark in the previous session, signalling investor confidence with upside momentum intact.
Analysts said that while buying interest is visible at lower levels, the 25,500–25,600 zone remains a stiff hurdle on the upside. On the downside, support is placed at 25,300–25,100 for any minor pullback.
“Market is on an uptrend and is well positioned to set new records soon. Fundamentals, technicals and sentiments are favourable for a steady uptrend. Earnings are likely to improve from Q3 onwards. Technically, short covering is happening and can accelerate,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
From the market sentiment perspective, a US-India trade deal without the penal tariff and a lower reciprocal tariff is likely, he added.
Major US indices made gains overnight as the Nasdaq added 0.94 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.48 per cent and the Dow inched up 0.27 per cent.
Most of the Asian markets were trading in the green during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index dipped 0.12 per cent, and Shenzhen advanced 0.23 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.77 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index moved up 0.12 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.46 per cent.
On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 366 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,326 crore.
Business
Stock market rises for 3rd consecutive day on US Fed rate cut, buying in IT sector

Mumbai, Sep 18: The Indian equity indices extended the gaining momentum for the third consecutive session on Thursday amid buying in IT stocks after the US Fed announced a rate cut.
Sensex closed at 83,013.96, up 320.25 points or 0.39 per cent.
The 30-share index opened with a decent gap-up at 83,108.92 against the last session’s closing of 82,693.71 after the US Fed announced a rate cut. However, the index remained range-bound throughout the session amid a mixed approach across sectors except IT.
Nifty ended the session at 25,423.60, up 93.35 points or 0.37 per cent.
“Global equities traded in the green after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 4–4.25 per cent and signalled two more reductions this year to cushion rising job market risks. Mirroring the upbeat global sentiment, Indian markets opened with a positive gap-up and maintained a sideways trajectory through the first half of the session,” Ashika Institutional Equities said in a note.
Eternal, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, HCL Tech, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel, Axis Bank and Bajaj FinServ settled high amid the Sensex stocks. Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Trent, Ultratech Cement, and Asian Paints ended the session in negative territory.
The majority of sectoral indices remained in green amid value buying. Nifty Fin Services jumped 135 points or 0.51 per cent, Nifty Bank rose 234 points or 0.42 per cent, Nifty Auto moved up 34 points or 0.13 per cent, Nifty FMCG jumped up 201 points or 0.36 per cent, and Nifty IT surged 303 points or 0.83 per cent.
Broader indices continued their bullish run amid buying in midcap and small-cap stocks. Nifty Small Cap 100 jumped 53 points or 0.29 per cent, Nifty Midcap 100 increased 224 points or 0.38 per cent, and Nifty 100 ended the session 91 points or 0.35 per cent high.
“Rupee closed weaker by 0.26 at 88.09 despite the dollar index staying soft post-Fed policy, where a rate cut was announced but forward guidance remained mixed as the roadmap for further cuts was unclear and data-dependent on jobs,” said Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities.
The rupee failed to gain as FII sentiment remained cautious, while ongoing India-US trade talks will be the next key trigger. Support for the rupee lies near 87.75, while resistance is seen at 88.25, he added.
Business
Fed Finally Cuts Interest Rates, But What’s Next For India’s Markets & Gold Prices?

Mumbai: The US central bank (Federal Reserve) has cut interest rates for the first time in 2025. This step is expected to support the US economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the decision was not due to political pressure, even though President Donald Trump had been demanding a rate cut for a long time.
The Fed has also hinted that it may cut rates two more times this year. This is to help the weak US job market. In the recent two-day meeting, almost all Fed members supported the 25 basis points cut. Only one member, Stephen Miran, voted against it.
Stephen Miran works with the White House and was earlier Trump’s economic advisor. He wanted a bigger cut—50 basis points. Trump had promised rate cuts during his election campaign.
New interest rate: 4 percent to 4.25 percent
Repo operation rate: 4.25 percent
Interest on reserve balance: 4.15 percent
Reverse repo rate: 4 percent
Prime credit rate: 4.25 percent
This US rate cut could help Indian markets. Lower US interest rates may push foreign investors to invest in India for better returns. This could lead to growth in the Indian stock market.
Gold may also get a boost. When interest rates fall, investors often look for safer and better returns—like gold. So gold prices might rise further.
The US job market is still weak. Looking at this and other economic risks, more rate cuts may happen in the coming months.
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